Anti-Kyoto Science Petition Tops 17,000 Names
A petition circulated to scientists urging lawmakers to reject the Kyoto Protocol has been signed by over 17,000 individuals including over 2,000 physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, meteorologists, oceanographers and environmental scientists. An additional 4,400, according to the petitions sponsors, are qualified to assess the effects of carbon dioxide upon the Earths plant and animal life and most of the remaining signers have technical training suitable to understanding climate change issues.
The petition letter is a strongly worded statement that goes beyond rejecting the Kyoto Protocol. It denies the existence of any scientific evidence that manmade greenhouse gases will cause catastrophic warming and even goes so far as to say, “increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.”
Environmentalists are attacking the petition on the grounds that it was distributed with an article that was formatted in a manner that resembles a reprint from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A cover letter from Dr. Frederick Seitz, former president of the National Academy of Sciences, which also accompanied the petition added to the confusion, they claim.
According to Raymond Pierrehumbert, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Chicago and staunch environmental activist, “The mailing is clearly designed to be deceptive by giving people the impression that the article, which is full of half-truths, is a reprint and has passed peer review.” Arthur Robinson, president of the OISM and lead author of the article admits that he used the Proceedings as a model, “but only to put the information in a format that scientists like to read, not to fool people in to thinking it is from a journal” (Science, April 10, 1998). More importantly, the article is formatted in the same style as Robinsons newsletter Access to Energy which he has published for years.
The whole controversy is moot, however, unless one is willing to believe that the thousands climatologists and meteorologists who signed the petition are completely unfamiliar with the scientific literature on global warming and just blindly signed a petition based on one article that arrived by mail.
Ozone Action, the environmental group who did their own petition drive urging lawmakers to accept the Kyoto Protocol that attracted only 2,600 signatures, attacked the petition saying that, “Several members of the scientific community have looked over the signatories listed on the petitions Web site, and they did not recognize a single scientist known for work on climate change” (The Washington Times, April 24, 1998). Yet Ozone Action cried foul when it was pointed out that only about 10 percent of their list of 2,600 scientists had the expertise to qualify them to speak on the issue of attribution. Nearly 100 disciplines, according to Ozone Action, are “aware of the wide-ranging, day-to-day impacts of climate change” (The Washington Times, March 8, 1998). Their list, however, included anthropologists, psychologists, veterinarians, a gynecologist and many who didnt even have advanced degrees.
“Ambitious” Industry Plan Exposed
A front-page story in the New York Times (April 26, 1998) by environmental reporter John Cushman “exposes” a plan by industry opponents of the Kyoto Protocol. According to Cushman, representatives from “big” oil companies, trade associations and conservative think tanks have been drafting an “ambitious proposal to spend millions of dollars to convince the public that a 1992 environmental accord [the Framework Convention on Climate Change] is based on shaky science.”
The memo outlining the plan was acquired by the National Environmental Trust (NET) and leaked to the Times. Phil Clapp, president of NET, says that exposing the plan will probably make it impossible to raise money to carry it out.
Apparently only an “ambitious” industry plan would seek to educate the public about the science (or lack thereof) behind the Kyoto Protocol. NET officials were alarmed that the American Petroleum Institute was planning to distribute “a global climate science information kit to the media which include . . . peer-reviewed articles throwing doubt on the conventional wisdom.”
Its worth remembering that this is the same group which ghost wrote various op-eds for business and government officials at the time of the Kyoto conference, including one for Enron Corporation CEO Kenneth Lay (as reported in our March 18, 1998 issue). Enron produces natural gas. The Kyoto Protocol would hurt Enrons competitors (Detroit News, April 30, 1998).
Portraying legitimate participation in the democratic process by educating the public, media and lawmakers as a sinister plot only suggests that proponents of the Kyoto Protocol are concerned that the scientific case for a treaty is not as strong as they claim.
Third World Participation a Must
A report by the U.S. Department of Energy shows that without participation from developing countries the Kyoto Protocol will do little to slow the buildup of greenhouse gases. Absent third world involvement, carbon dioxide emissions will grow by 32 percent above 1990 levels by 2010, as opposed to 44 percent under business as usual. By 2020 emission will grow by 60 percent above 1990 levels, even if the developed countries fully comply with the treaty.
Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) said this is bad news for the administration. “Its [the Kyoto Protocol] even deader than it was before in the Senate, if thats possible,” he said. “For a 10 percent swing in emissions, the reward is not worth the effort. Why would you do the kind of damage to your economy and competitiveness and national sovereignty, if in fact youre not going to get any results?” Hagel asked.
Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright had announced on April 21 in New York City that the Administration would begin a “full-court press” to gain participation from the developing world. But, says Hagel, Chinas representatives told him at the Kyoto conference that they had no plans to sign the treaty. China and other developing countries even demanded that language allowing for voluntary participation be struck from the treaty (The Washington Times, April 23, 1998).
The same report stated that world emissions of carbon dioxide will rise by 79 percent in 2020 from 1995 levels due to an unexpected 75 percent increase of global energy consumption (Asia Intelligence Wire, April 23, 1998).
Wisconsins Global Warming Plan
Wisconsins Climate Change Committee, composed of representatives from state government, industry, and environmental groups, has agreed upon a broad outline for a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The plan, which was partially funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, will rely on reduction of electricity consumption by end-users through energy efficiency measures. It will also improve fuel efficiency and increase use of clean fuel and renewable energy sources. State agencies will purchase fuel efficient and alternative-fuel cars in an attempt to develop markets for these technologies. Those parts of the plan that effect the private sector will be limited to voluntary, no-regrets measures. This is just one of the ways in which the Clinton administration will try to comply with the Kyoto Protocol without Senate ratification (The Climate Change Report, March 30, 1998).
Automobiles Under Attack
A new study by the Environmental Protection Agency calls for tougher auto-emission controls on diesel engines, light trucks and sports utility vehicles by 2004. The study claims that improved catalytic converters and other emission reducing devices are technologically feasible and will add a mere $161 to the costs of each vehicle.
Even though new cars are 97 percent cleaner than their counterparts from 1970, the EPA fears that the increasing number of cars on the road and the move to larger vehicles will lead to an inability to meet national air standards. Auto makers say that the technologies listed in the study will all require very low sulfur levels in gasoline but the study makes no mention of this. Automobile and oil industry representatives argue that reducing sulfur content in gasoline on a national level is very expensive and unnecessary.
Paul G. Billings, and official with the American Lung Association, is pleased with the study. He is disappointed, however, that the EPA did not push for sulfur removal. “EPA needs to stop being a referee between big oil and big auto and become an advocate for big health,” he said.
Charles Kitz, head of environmental planning for Chrysler Corp., says that the auto industry is being “regulated on both sides.” On the on hand the Clinton administration is pressuring the auto makers to curb carbon dioxide emissions pushing the auto makers towards more fuel efficient diesel engines but new restrictions of soot particles called for in the EPA study may “preclude the use of diesels,” Kitz said.
The study says that the EPA may use flexible guidelines such as those used in California that use different guidelines for different classes of vehicles. This says the study will lead to greater technological innovation (Wall Street Journal, April 23, 1998).
Opposition to Emission Trading
In a speech to members of the European Unions Global Legislators Organization For A Balanced Environment, Frank Joshua, a researcher with the United Nations Conference for Trade and Development, criticized the EU for its opposition to emission trading. As of now it looks like the EU will not agree to emission trading at the November meeting in Buenos Aires. If this happens the U.S. will probably try to form a trading bubble with Russia whos emissions have dropped by 30 percent since 1990. Since the Kyoto Protocol only commits Russia to keep its emissions at 1990 levels it will have a lot of excess permits for sale.
The European Commission and environmentalists, however, are arguing that Russia should not be able to trade its permits with the U.S. or any other industrialized country since that would allow countries to meet their targets without domestic action. Peter Jorgensen, environment spokesman for the European Commission has called countries that want emission trading “the guys in black hats” and “immoral” (BNA Daily Environment Report, April 24, 1998).
International News
Japan became the first major industrial nation to sign the Kyoto Protocol on April 28. Japans target is to reduce greenhouse gases 6 percent below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. The European Union followed suit the next day. Its signature commits EU countries to reduce emissions by 8 percent (AP Online, April 29, 1998).
President Clinton and Chilean President Eduardo Frei issued a joint statement on April 16 saying that developing countries “should participate meaningfully in efforts to address climate change, taking on emission targets whenever possible” (BNA Daily Environment Report, April 17, 1998).