Yellen Defends Economic Study
The Clinton Administration continues to defend its Kyoto cost estimates even though nearly everyone agrees that they are woefully overoptimistic. On April 29, Janet Yellen, chair of the Presidents Council of Economic Advisors, testified before the House Small Business Committee, reaffirming the administrations commitment to its cost estimates.
Yellens estimates that the cost of Kyoto will fall between $7 and $12 billion per year if the Annex I countries fully participate in an international emission trading system. The cost of a carbon permit representing 1 ton of carbon would only cost between $14 and $23. These estimates fall far below the estimates of other studies.
Yellen also claimed that improving forestry and agriculture management “have the potential to bring down the costs substantially.” One of the problems with the administrations claims is that they are all based on speculation. To date there is no agreement between the Annex I countries about emission trading, and the use of carbon sinks is an even more contentious issue. Moreover, as Yellen admitted in her testimony, the issue of carbon sinks is still very cloudy. There are no good estimates as to the extent to which carbon offsets could be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Committee Chairman James Talent (R-Mo.) asked Yellen if the administration had projected the future energy use of those countries from which the United States would want to buy emission allowances. She responded that these numbers were implicit in the estimates that she had given. When asked if she could make those numbers explicit she said she could not. Talent asked how it was possible to make estimates about allowance prices without estimating the supply and demand conditions that may exist.
Also testifying in the hearing was Robert Reinstein, president of Reinstein & Associates International. He did make those estimates and concluded that the supply of permits is insufficient to cover the demand. The demand for credits will be between 1.7 and 3 billion tons of carbon equivalent. “The maximum potential supply of credits available through emission trading,” said Reinstein, “is less than 1.3 billion tons of carbon equivalent.” This would occur in the case where the Russian and other Eastern European economies continue to stagnate. If they recover the supply will be considerably less.
Credits could also be earned through joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. “Overall, I would estimate the likely total supply of emission credits from all three Kyoto flexibility mechanisms at between 200 and 500 million tons per year,” said Reinstein. Under the best case scenario the supply of credits would cover about 30 percent of OECD country demand. Under business as usual the supply would cover just 7 percent of demand. The result would be a permit price of $150 to $200 per ton of carbon equivalent.
Cost of Kyoto for Agriculture
Several studies have attempted to ascertain the effect of global warming on agriculture. Overall they have found that U.S. agriculture would suffer little from global warming. Now a study has been done to determine the effects of global warming policy, specifically the Kyoto Protocol, on U.S. agriculture. Sponsored by the American Farm Bureau, American Corn Growers Assn., National Cattlemans Beef Assn., United Fresh Fruit & Vegetable Assn., and the National Grange, the study shows that the Kyoto Protocol would have a severe economic impact on agriculture.
The study estimates that agriculture would suffer an 8.8 percent increase in production costs as well as a loss in sales of $5 billion at the farm level, due to lower GDP. Farm income would also fall by more than 50 percent. Most importantly, perhaps, is the claim that the Kyoto Protocol would have a disproportionate impact on low-income Americans. The study points out that 37 percent of U.S. households have an income of less that $20,000 after taxes. These households spend anywhere from 21.2 percent to over 100 percent of their after-tax income on food compared to the average U.S. consumer who only spends 11.9 percent. The poor would suffer the most from increased food prices. For more information contact the American Farm Bureau Federation at (202) 484-3600.
USDA Analysis Says Kyoto Would Have Minimal Effect on Farmers
In contrast to the agricultural sectors study, the U.S. Department of Agriculture claims that the Kyoto Protocol will have little effect on farmers. The USDA assumes the existence of emission trading and bases its analysis on the Clinton Administrations estimate of the costs of Kyoto on the American economy. The study, therefore, assumes a permit price of $23 per ton of carbon emissions.
According to the study, production costs would only rise by 0.6 percent and farm income would fall by a mere 0.5 percent. Changes in commodity prices would be barely noticeable, 2 cents higher per bushel of corn and only 1 cent per bushel higher for wheat and soybeans. The study also claimed that farmers could supplement their incomes by participating in carbon sequestration and methane reduction programs to earn emission allowances. The study attacks the recent economic analysis by farmers organizations, claiming that it does not account for “adjustments that farmers would make to changes in production processes.” The study can be found at www.usda.gov.