2001

Global Warming Quantified?; Monster Hurricanes: Global Warming or Global Alarming?

by William Yeatman on August 2, 2001

in Science

Global Warming Quantified?

One of the major shortcomings of the report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is that it treats all of its scenarios, 35 in all, as equally likely. Many scientists have commented that the high end of the IPCCs estimate of future global warming, the range from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C (2.5 to 10.4 degrees F), is highly unlikely.

A research group from MIT calculated that there is far less than one percent chance that temperatures will rise 5.8 degrees in the next 100 years. They also calculated that there is a 17 percent chance that the temperature increase will fall short of 1.4 degrees.

In a new paper published in the July 20 issue of Science, Thomas Wigley, with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and Sarah Raper, with the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in England, attempt to quantify the likelihood that temperature rise will fall within the range predicted by the IPCC.

What they found was that there is a 90 percent probability that temperatures will rise between 1.7 to 4.9 degrees C (3 to 8.8 degrees F) by 2100. This range, note the authors, “is very large compared with the observed warming over the last century.” They also conclude that the probability that temperatures will reach 5.8 degrees to be very low.

They come to this conclusion by attaching probability distributions, using IPCC values, to what they deem the most important uncertainties, such as climate sensitivity and the role of sulfate aerosols, in the climate models. They then run a simplified climate model that is calibrated to the more complex global circulation models, to generate a probability distribution for thousands of combinations.

Although this paper is important due to the fact that it focuses on the uncertainties in climate modeling, it is important to understand what the paper actually says. Its not so much a prediction of how temperatures will change in the future, but a prediction of how the models behave. In other words, if you run the model 100 times, it will give you a temperature rise that falls within 1.7 and 4.9 degrees 90 percent of the time. “Our results are only as realistic as the assumptions upon which they are based,” say the authors. Many of the IPCCs assumptions are demonstrably false.

Monster Hurricanes: Global Warming or Global Alarming?

A July 19th CNN story on the increasing severity of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean highlights the uncertainty inherent in long-term predictions of the effects of global climate change. CNN Miami Bureau Chief John Zarrella recently interviewed Christopher Landsea of the National Oceanic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division about his recent article on hurricane activity in the journal Science.

In the interview, Landsea pointed out that a major upward shift in climate has been responsible for the increase in hurricane activity over the last six years. He anticipates this shift will continue for the next ten to 40 years. However, he acknowledges that the increase in injuries and property damage caused by hurricanes is due to population growth and economic development. Specifically, he states: “I think at this point the U.S. is so developed and theres so many people along the coast that just about anywhere is a major disaster ready to happen.”

In his journal article entitled “The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications,” (Science, 20 July 2001), Landsea explains that the increased activity is caused by a simultaneous increase in sea surface temperatures and decreases in vertical wind shear. He points out that local conditions in the tropical Atlantic have a direct effect on the development of hurricanes. In addition, he states that the oceans provide the best indicators of long run variability for hurricane activity.

For historical perspective, he explains that from 1944-1970, the average number of major hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin was 2.7. However, from 1971-1994, this number fell to 1.5. The recent upsurge has taken place from 1995-2000, during which the number rose to 3.8. He explains that 1997 was a year of below average activity because of the strong El Nio event that occurred.

As for whether the recent upward trend is due to global climate change, he states: “The historical multidecadal-scale variability in Atlantic hurricane activity is much greater than what would be expected from gradual temperature increase attributed to global warming. There have been various studies investigating the potential effect of long-term global warming on the number and strength of Atlantic-basin hurricanes. The results are inconclusive. Some studies document an increase in activity while others suggest a decrease.” He concludes by offering a stern warning to policymakers that our nations emergency management infrastructure must be bolstered to counteract the threat of more severe hurricanes over the next decade.

Therefore, the threat of increased injuries and property damage due to more severe hurricane seasons is of serious concern. However, it is premature to blame the effects of this problem on global climate change. Policymakers would be wise to take Landseas recommendations into account when examining the perceived costs of global warming.

EIA Report Weighs Costs of Multipollutant Strategy

by William Yeatman on August 2, 2001

in Blog

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released a new study entitled “Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants.” This study measures the costs of imposing simultaneous caps on power plant emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), mercury (Hg), and carbon dioxide (CO2).

This new report by EIA follows up its December 2000 study on the projected costs of a three pollutant approach. It also sheds light on the prospective costs of recent legislative proposals, including H.R. 1335 (the Clean Power Act of 2001) and S. 1131 (the Clean Power Plant and Modernization Act of 2001) which advocate a four pollutant approach.

In the report, EIA points out that over the next 20 years NOx emissions are expected to rise slowly, SO2 emissions are expected to remain at year 2000 levels, and CO2 emissions are expected to increase steadily. The agency explains that, due to expanding electricity demand, a growing dependency on natural gas and the construction of a small number of new coal-fired power plants will cause CO2 emissions to rise.

The agency states that the effects of capping CO2 emissions at 1990 levels or at 7% below 1990 levels will force people to pay higher prices for electricity. Specifically, the report says “Electricity prices are projected to be much higher when CO2 emissions are capped than when NOx, SO2, or Hg emissions are capped43 percent higher in 2010 and 38 percent higher in 2020 than projected in the reference case. Consumers are expected to reduce their electricity consumption by 8 percent in 2010 and 12 percent in 2020 when faced with higher electricity prices.”

In addition, the agency explains that electricity prices could be substantially higher if natural gas prices turn out to be higher than projected. If CO2 caps are imposed, both domestic production and imports of natural gas must grow to meet electricity demands. Specifically, production of 0.8 trillion cubic feet from domestic sources and 2.3 trillion cubic feet from imports must be added over the next 20 years to meet the increased demand. This would require domestic natural gas producers to achieve record levels of output from 2005-2010 and would represent a serious challenge for the industry.

Therefore, the adoption of a four-pollutant approach would introduce serious uncertainty into Americas energy infrastructure. As unexpected fluctuations in natural gas prices contributed to the California electricity crisis, uncertainty in markets for coal, natural gas, and renewables could cause unanticipated problems for consumers. As the report states: “History does not offer clear guidance as to how the various markets might respond to changes as large as those required by the proposed emissions targets.”

In conclusion, a four pollutant approach to reducing power plant emissions would introduce tremendous uncertainty into the viability of American electricity markets. Dropping CO2 from the program would do a great deal to strip away some of this uncertainty and ensure that consumers can obtain the electricity they demand during the 21st century.

Japan is Far From Kyoto Target; Hurricane Damage Unchanged; Economics 101: Price Caps Dont Work

by William Yeatman on July 10, 2001

in Blog

Japan is Far From Kyoto Target

The Japanese Environment Ministry has reported that Japans efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have not gone well. Japan agreed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 6 percent below 1990 levels, but emissions rose a whopping six-plus percent in 1999 alone, putting total emissions at 6.8 percent above 1990 levels.

Japans greenhouse gas emissions fell in 1997 and 1998 due to an economic slump, according to Ministry officials, but 1999 saw an explosion, with private households increasing emissions by 5.3 percent, from industry by 4.2 percent, from office buildings by 3.3 percent and by 23 percent from the transportation sector (Asahi News Service, July 11, 2001).

Hurricane Damage Unchanged

It has been claimed repeatedly that global warming is causing increases in hurricane damages in the United States. Such claims were made frequently in the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew, which global warming alarmists said was the most costly storm of the 20th century.

Once again, however, environmentalist claims have been invalidated by actual research. A study by Tillinghast Tower Perrin, a risk-management consulting firm, is the first-ever comprehensive study of “insured hurricane damages from all hurricanes that affected the continental U.S. in the 20th century” (http://www.towers.com/towers/default_till.asp).

The studies key findings include:

  • “When actual insured hurricane damages are adjusted to reflect current property values and the increase in the number of people living toward the coast, insured damages in the 1990s were not unusually high compared to other decades in the 20th century.

  • “Hurricane Andrew did not produce the highest adjusted damages from a single storm; the September 1926 Miami hurricane led the way with $50 billion in insured damages. Andrew actually ran a distant second with $25 billion in insured damages.

  • “While Atlantic hurricane frequency did increase in the second half of the 1990s, the number of such storms striking the U.S. in the decade was actually the second- lowest of the 20th century.”

The analysis refutes global warming claims, according to Tillinghast Principal, Doug Collins. “Our study put historical hurricane costs on a comparable level,” he said. “No one had ever measured the whole 20th century before or considered the explosive growth of residences and vacation homes near the coast.”

Economics 101: Price Caps Dont Work

Anyone familiar with supply and demand knew it was bound to happen. President Bush warned against it. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, however, still plowed ahead with its plan of imposing floating price caps on wholesale electric power in the 11 western states. Now it is time to pay the price. The New York Times reported on July 4 that the price caps are worsening the energy crisis in California.

The price caps, which went into effect June 19, have contributed to further rolling blackouts in California and rolling blackouts for the first time ever in Nevada, according to the Times story. The price caps caused generators to withhold about 600 megawatts of power (enough power for about 600,000 homes).

The power companies are withholding power because of the confusion surrounding the price caps. The price caps change depending on conditions, such as the cost of fuel and operating and maintenance expenses. The caps are set to the cost for the least efficient power plant to produce electricity, which can also change. Adding to the turmoil is the fact that the caps are only reset when there is a Stage 1 alertwhen demand is 7 percent higher than supply.

Not only has the confusion caused companies to lower output, but the prospect of not receiving fair market value for their power has also contributed. “A lot of generators were telling us that they were uncertain what they would be paid, and so they didnt want to take the risk,” said Oscar Hidalgo, spokesman for the California Department of Water Resources. Gary Ackerman of the Western Power Trading Forum agreed. “No ones going to pay for transmission if the cost is near the caps,” he said.

The blackouts in Nevada have come a time when temperatures were close to 120 degrees. Don Soderberg of the Nevada Public Utilities Commission noted that the price caps have had unintended consequences. “Were going to see how the caps might have played into this,” he said. Until then Nevadans can only hope the price caps do not bring more blackouts and the days do not get much warmer.

Uncertainty Abounds Before Bonn; Australia attempts to salvage Kyoto

by William Yeatman on July 10, 2001

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics

Uncertainty Abounds Before Bonn

As negotiations resume in Bonn next week, it is not clear what will become of the Kyoto Protocol. Although the U.S. will send a delegation to the talks headed by Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, the State Department has confirmed that President Bush remains opposed to the treaty. According to State Department spokesman Richard Boucher, “The United States takes climate change very seriously and will work constructively within the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.”

“The United States is working with our allies to develop an effective and science-based approach to addressing global climate change,” he said (Greenwire, June 11, 2001).

Japan has become the key player in the negotiations. For the Kyoto Protocol to become international law a sufficient number of Annex I countries those required to make cuts in greenhouse gas emissions representing 55 percent of Annex I 1990 emissions, must ratify it. That threshold cannot be met without either Japan or the U.S.

Japans Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has been pressured by the EU to ratify Kyoto without the U.S. He has made it clear, however, that he has no plans to do so, but in the meantime will work to persuade the U.S. to ratify Kyoto. He also urged the EU to take a more flexible stance on the issue (Asia Pulse, July 11, 2001).

A possible concession to placate Japan would be to postpone the Kyoto timetables, even though the protocol states that targets and timetables cannot be changed until after the protocol goes into effect. Currently, Kyoto requires that during the period of 2008 to 2012 a countrys average emissions should be at the target level. The Chairman of the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, Jan Pronk said, “I can imagine that it would be possible to postpone the date of 2008 by two years, to 2010” (New York Times, July 6, 2001).

Canadas Environment Minister, David Anderson believes that efforts by the EU to proceed with Kyoto are a waste of time. “The EU may be right. It may be theoretically possible to proceed with Kyoto. But what is the victory worth?” he said. “Kyoto is only a means to an end. Effective climate change action cannot operate effectively without the United States” (Ottawa Citizen, July 11, 2001).

Meanwhile, a cryptic statement from the head of the U.N. Environment Program, Klaus Toepfer, suggests that the G-8 meeting in Genoa, Italy next week will play a role in forcing the issue. “Theres more than good reason to think there will be a signal coming from Genoa to Bonn to finalize it,” he said (Greenwire, July 11, 2001).

Australia attempts to salvage Kyoto

In an interview with Reuters (July 11, 2001), Australian Environment Minister Robert Hill outlined his plan to woo the U.S. back in to the Kyoto Protocol. Australia has been trying to get major developing countries, like China and India, to participate in a greenhouse gas reduction program. This would address one of the U.S.s primary concerns about the Kyoto pact. However, Hill has not found eager participants. “they cant see why they should accept legal constraints on burning carbon which could constrain their economic growth.”

Without a plan to include developing countries in Kyoto and with other concerns left unaddressed, the U.S. is unlikely to change its position at the upcoming talks in Bonn. Hill said that no deal should be reached at Bonn if it does not include the U.S. “We will continue to negotiate the Kyoto rulesbut we would argue it would be better if that process wasnt completed at this meeting in order that the door might be left open for the United States.”

Natural Cycle Confounds Global Warming; Where Has all the Carbon Gone?; Fossilized Leaves Challenge Climate Models

by William Yeatman on July 10, 2001

in Science

Natural Cycle Confounds Global Warming

One of the most important scientific questions that remains unanswered is the role of natural variability in the climate. As noted by Dr. Richard Lindzen in the Wall Street Journal (June 11, 2001), “Distinguishing the small recent changes in global mean temperature from the natural variability, which is unknown, is not a trivial task.”

A new study in the July 6 issue of Science adds another piece to the natural variability puzzle. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern of winds that blow counterclockwise around the Arctic. In its “high-index phase” it does so at latitude even with the Great Lakes and eastern Europe. In its “low-index phase,” it extends south to the Ohio Valley and westward into France. It is an important climatic cycle that exerts “a strong influence on wintertime climate, not only over the Euro-Atlantic half of the hemisphere as documented in previous studies, but over the Pacific half as well.”

The study found that “High-index days are, on average, ~5 degrees C warmer over much of the Midwestern United States, central Canada, and Europe.” Low-index days exhibit colder conditions. “The NAO,” according to the study, “has exhibited a pronounced trend towards its high-index polarity since the late 1960s that is evident in its time series and is also reflected in the relative numbers of low- and high-index days in different decades,” leading to “warmer wintertime-mean temperatures across much of the NH [Northern Hemisphere] high-latitude continents.”

One of the authors of the study, Dr. David Thompson, of Colorado State University, noted in a July 5 Canadian Broadcasting Company article, “Public perceptions that winters are becoming less wintry appear to be as much or more due to the change in the Arctic Oscillation as to global warming.”

Where has all the Carbon Gone?

As environmentalists continue to harp on the evils of carbon dioxide, they may want to notice the lack of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Although carbon dioxide emissions are up almost 40 percent in the past 20 years, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has decreased or remained the same, according to an article in Science (July 6, 2001). The author of the article Steven C. Wofsy with the Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University, notes, “The reason for this discrepancy is that increasing amounts of anthropogenic CO2 are being removed by forests and other components of the biosphere.”

About 25 percent of carbon dioxide emitted by fossil fuels is sequestered according to the Wofsys estimates. “But,” said Wofsy, “analyses of forest inventories (which measure forest areas and timber volume) seem to indicate that forests sequester much smaller amounts of carbon. Thus we have a mystery: If our forests are sequestering billions of tons of carbon annually, why cant we find it? Evidently, we have not been looking in the right places.”

Right now, scientists are not entirely sure where the extra carbon dioxide is hiding, but they have some thoughts. Many organic materials, such as woody debris, soil, wood products and woody plants, are not reported in forest inventories because they are not economically valuable. All of these things can absorb carbon dioxide. Professor S. Pacala of Princeton University, et al. estimates that more than 75 percent of carbon sequestration takes place in organic matter that is not inventoried (Science, June 22, 2001). Indeed, Pacala et al. estimates that carbon uptake in the U.S. equals 20 to 40 percent of worldwide CO2 emissions.

According to S. Fang et al., the carbon might be holed up in Asia (Science, June 22, 2001). Forests in China have absorbed substantial amounts of carbon dioxide thanks to reforestation and afforestation projects. When China planned its reforestation policy, it was not for carbon sequestration, but to restore ecosystems and produce wood for fuel. Wofsey points out that carbon sequestration will not stop the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but it could significantly slow it.

Fossilized Leaves Challenge Climate Models

A new study of fossilized leaves cast further doubt on the reliability of climate models. An international team of scientists gathered Cretaceous era leaf fossils from Europe, Asia, and North America in an effort to calculate the temperatures at ancient sites. The leaf temperature calculations matched ocean bed oxygen isotope measurements. The surprise came when the scientists tested modern climate models, ability to predict ancient temperatures.

The results from the different models varied greatly. At most of the sites, the results of the models did not match the actual temperature data. “Were talking about an error on the order of 20oC, so its not small-not by any means” says modeler Paul Valdes from the University of Reading. What could cause such large errors in the climate models? Researchers think the answer lies in the way that climate models simulate the effects of clouds. “Its a generic problem with all climate models,” says Valdes.

The discrepancies between climate models predictions and actual temperatures leads to troubling conclusions about their ability to predict the future (New Scientist, July 9, 2001).

EU Proposes Emission Trading Scheme; Chinas Dubious CO2 Reductions; Global Warming Insurance?; Carbon Tax Proposals Overseas

by William Yeatman on June 26, 2001

in Blog

EU Proposes Emission Trading Scheme

A new plan being drawn up by the European Commission would require industry participation in a new CO2 emissions trading scheme. Under the proposed law, all major industries, with the notable exceptions of waste incineration and chemical production, would be compelled to begin trading CO2 credits by 2005. These allotments would be granted by member countries to industry based on current emissions.

The scheme is the beginning of an attempt by the EU to meet its target reductions under Kyoto. The Commission admits that capping and trading CO2 quotas will not directly reduce greenhouse gases. However, they believe that making quotas tradable will encourage industry to find cost-effective ways to reduce overall CO2 output.

The draft law also includes some hefty fines for those who exceed their ration of CO2 and cannot buy more credits. The commission is considering fines of $170 per ton of excess CO2 emission. The fine per ton is about 10 times what the Commission believes the future average per ton trading cost will be.

The European Commission wants the EU to set the standard for CO2 cap and trade systems. This would take advantage of the “flexibility mechanisms” that are allowed under Kyoto. By creating the pre-cursor to any international system, the Commission may have substantial impact on what the final rules would be.

Russia is extremely interested in the EU trading scheme because of the benefits it could reap if it were expanded internationally. The implosion of Russias economy reduced CO2 emissions far below their 1990 levels. Russia would be able to sell its “hot air” credits to foreign companies.

The draft law would not include any other greenhouse gases. The Commission decided that regulating methane, nitrous oxide, and the fluorinated gases would prove too complicated (Reuters, June 25, 2001).

Chinas Dubious CO2 Reductions

The New York Times reported in its June 15 issue that China reduced its emissions of CO2 by 17 percent between 1997 and 1999. The story, which appeared on the front page, was largely a broadside aimed at President Bushs statement that the Kyoto Protocol is “fatally flawed” because China, the worlds second leading emitter of greenhouse gases, is exempt.

Zhou Dadi, director of the Energy Research Institute of the central governments State Development Planning Commission, stated, “We already have one of the worlds best records in improving energy efficiency.” He also put the onus back on the U.S., “As an energy expert, I think we need a demonstration from a developed country to prove that a high living standard can be associated with lower carbon emissions,” he said. “Then China will follow that example or even do better.”

The Times story was based on a report by the Natural Resources Defense Council. The report states, “There is a good basis to argue that China has done more to combat climate change over the past decade than has the United States.”

Besides the dubious credibility of statistics from Chinas communist government, there are problems with these claims. As noted in Electricity Daily (June 27, 2001), the NRDC report says, “Chinas lower energy consumption is clearly the result of declining coal consumption, since other primary energy forms did not record such a drop. This reduction in coal consumption appears to be concentrated in direct uses household cooking and heating, for example since conversion of coal for power generation and other uses has remained stable.”

So, says Electricity Daily, “The only way this cut could be real is if people in China stopped cooking and heating their homes, since industrial and electric power coal consumption did not drop. Such an explanation is highly unlikely.”

“What is evident,” says Electricity Daily, “is that during this period the central Chinese government issued decrees designed to close many of the small local coal mines that supply domestic consumption. By far the most likely explanation is that these local mines simply stopped reporting production.”

Global Warming Insurance?

The Washington Post (June 26, 2001) has turned a virtual non-story into another global warming scare. According to the article, companies are buying weather insurance to guard against financial loss due to adverse weather conditions.

The story begins by discussing the Dallas-based Atmos Energy Co., which recently spent $4.9 million on weather insurance from Enron Corp. Enron began selling the insurance in 1997 in response to El Nio, a naturally occurring phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that has produced several warm winters. Of course, warm winters are anathema to energy companies. Purchasing insurance to guard against a well-known, regularly occurring event such as El Nio makes good business sense.

The Washington Post, however, makes an absurd leap from good business practice to, “Thats the kind of practical response beginning to take place throughout U.S. industry as business leaders face up to the prospect of climate change.” It also tries to link El Nio to global warming, a link that has no basis in the scientific literature.

If global warming led to a situation where energy companies were confronted with a long string of warm winters or ski resorts with a long string of winters with inadequate snowfall, then they would simply go out of business. Theres no way these companies could afford the premium to insure against a long-term shift in climatic conditions. Thus, if catastrophic global warming were a serious threat, rather than seeing an increase in the sales of weather insurance, wed see a decrease.

Carbon Tax Proposals Overseas

Japan and the European Union are proposing to use taxes to lower CO2 emissions in order to comply with their obligations under Kyoto. A new report from the Central Environment Council in Japan says that creating a tax on CO2 could bring as much as a two percent reduction in emissions below 1990 levels. The tax would be around $240 per ton of CO2 emitted. The report also noted that the CO2 tax would reduce GDP by almost one percent (Japan Times, June 21, 2001).

The EU is also experimenting with tax proposals to reduce CO2 emissions (Financial Times, June 22, 2001). Instead of taxing CO2 emissions themselves, Belgium is using its presidency of the EU Commission to push a unified EU tax on energy usage. By making energy use more costly they hope to reduce demand. Also the energy tax would improve the bottom line of the EU budget. Under the proposal the revenue from the tax would flow directly to the EU, bypassing the member states.

Belgiums tax proposal highlights inter-EU tensions. So far energy tax proposals have been strongly opposed by Spain and Britain who do not want to see an EU standard set. However, Belgium has signaled that they are willing to go ahead without unanimous support.

300-million-year Record of CO2 Levels; Uncertainties in Climate Science

by William Yeatman on June 26, 2001

in Science

300-million-year Record of CO2 Levels

There has been a lot of hand wringing over increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The increase is relatively small when compared to historic levels. Preindustrial concentrations were about 280 parts per million. Currently concentrations are about 370 ppm. A study in the May 17 issue of Nature shows that CO2 levels were much higher in the past.

The studys authors constructed a 300-million-year record of CO2 concentrations using “stomatal abundance from fossil leaves of four genera of plants that are closely related to the present-day Gingko tree.” Two periods of low (meaning less than 1,000 ppm) CO2 concentrations were discovered, which corresponded to two known ice ages. During most of the Mesozoic era (the period from 65 to 259 million years ago), CO2 levels were between 1,000 and 2,000 ppm, with occasional peaks that reached levels higher than 2,000 ppm.

Results from the middle Miocene, a warm period about 10 million years ago, failed to show high CO2 levels. The researchers suggest that the warming may have occurred due to “episodic methane outbursts.”

Uncertainties in Climate Science

In a recent issue of Climatic Change (49: 2001), Dr. Gerald North, Distinguished Professor of Meteorology and Oceanography at Texas A&M, used a book review to discuss the major uncertainties in climate science. The book, Global Warming: The Hard Science, was written by L.D. Danny Harvey.

North noted that twenty years ago the National Academy of Sciences produced a study that stated that, “If the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere were doubled, the new temperature after equilibrium would be 1-3 degrees C higher.”

“It is now two decades later,” wrote North, “and we still have approximately the same or even greater uncertainty for the sensitivity of climate to such an external forcing. In spite of all our increased understanding of [the] climate system over this period, we have not managed to narrow this uncertainty.”

One reason is that, “Climate modeling and simulation do not form a science in the classical sense. We cannot formulate a hypothesis and then proceed to test it in the laboratory. We have a complicated system with only a finite history of empirical information about it far from enough, in fact.”

North notes another problem in the modeling community. “The range of uncertainty is not an easy thing to assess. It seems to be mainly derived from an intercomparison of the models produced by different scientific groups around the world. This is a very poor means of arriving at the real uncertainty, since the models are rather similar to one another and probably even more like each other than like nature.”

Using our fastest computers, North points out, it would take a month to run a point-by-point simulation of a one second evolution of the atmospheric motions within a one-kilometer cube. “Hence, one is forced to the familiar procedure of parameterization and the inevitable fudge factors. We simply cannot get around it.”

“Finally,” wrote North, ” on the behavioral side the modeling groups cannot escape the external pressures from politicians and other pressure groups. It is very difficult to announce results that make your group an outlier. First, the modeling groups must answer to funding authorities, and these figures invariably hate the anomalous report. Other groups outside the line of authority and the scientific community also apply pressure to find the answer acceptable to their group. Leaders of the modeling groups will seek the protection of conformity. Hence, I suspect that the error bars on climate sensitivity are already artificially narrow because of this multiplicity of effects.”

The uncertainty, North concluded, “does not excuse inaction by policymakers.” He says that virtually all scientists believe that global warming is real and manmade and that this consensus should be acted upon in “prudent” ways. He fails to define what he means by prudent, however.

Etc.

  • Barbra Streisand has taken it upon herself to scold her fellow Californians on energy conservation. The crisis has left her “wondering why the citizens of California have not been called on and encouraged to play our part in helping deal with this problem” (www.barbrastreisand.com).

In “A Call to Conserve,” she suggests that Californians turn up their air conditioning thermostats to 78 degrees, wash clothes with cold water, use a clothesline rather than a clothes drier, and do several other things to save energy.

Streisand seems oblivious to the hypocrisy of the owner of several multi-million dollar homes preaching about conservation. When asked whether she planned on following her own advice, a spokesman for Streisand said, “She never meant that it necessarily applied to her” (New York Times, June 20, 2001).

Writing in the June 23 issue of the Daily Telegraph (London), Mark Steyn published his alternative suggestions in “A Call to Celebrities to Conserve.” They include: “6) another good way to conserve energy in the evenings is to remove the bulbs from the maids room.”

Heres an energy conservation tip from your friendly Cooler Heads staff. Refrain from buying any of Streisands hats, t-shirts, mugs, CDs or any of the other merchandise available on her website.

Informal Talks Hit Early Snags; Knollenberg Provision Survives; UK to Evaluate Nukes

by William Yeatman on June 26, 2001

in Politics

Informal Talks Hit Early Snags

Informal talks are being held this week in the Hague in preparation for the resumption of COP-6 in the Bonn in mid-July. The talks were hastily arranged by COP-6 president Jan Pronk to figure out how to continue negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol in the face of U.S. opposition. Early press reports suggest that bickering has broken out between the parties.

Interestingly, although President Bush has rejected the Kyoto Protocol, he has sent a delegation, led by Kenneth Brill, to participate in the negotiations. It is not clear what roll the Bush Administration intends to play in further talks.

According to a June 26 Agence France Presse article, part of Pronks proposal is for the industrialized countries to provide one billion dollars per year to help developing countries adapt to global warming. Although Russia has managed to obtain a concession to halve the contribution of former communist countries to the fund, the Eastern European countries are apparently still opposed to the plan. “This will be a big problem for getting the treaty ratified,” a source in the European Union said.

Another obstacle is the reluctance of Japan to proceed in the negotiations without U.S. cooperation. On June 27, the BBC reported that Japans environment minister Yoriko Kawaguchi, criticized Pronks plan and reiterated that U.S. participation is still essential to make Kyoto succeed. Pronk and the EU have offered several concessions in an attempt to convince the Japanese government to ratify Kyoto without the U.S.

The informal Hague talks began with a meeting of the Group of 77 developing nations. They are scheduled to meet later in the week with the industrialized nations to try to resolve their remaining differences.

Knollenberg Provision Survives

During floor debate in the U.S. House of Representatives over the FY 2002 transportation appropriations bill (H.R. 2299) on June 26, the Knollenberg provision, which prohibits any federal action to implement or prepare to implement the Kyoto Protocol prior to Senate ratification, survived efforts to eliminate or weaken it. This is the latest of a series of similar attempts over the past two years.

After an attempt to eliminate the provision failed, Reps. John Olver (D-MA) and Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD), offered an amendment that would have exempted any activities authorized under existing law from the Knollenberg provision. However, they then agreed to withdraw their amendment before it came to a vote.

According to Environment and Energy Daily (June 27, 2001), the bill that passed the House Appropriations Committee on June 13 does not include language blocking the administration from raising Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. “Congressional sources said there was no mention of CAFE standards in the list of amendments expected to be offered to the bill on the floor, though that does not mean one will not be offered,” according to the article.

UK to Evaluate Nukes

Fearing they will not be able to meet their Kyoto target, Britain has begun an energy needs review. According to a June 26 Financial Times article, the review will focus heavily on nuclear power.

Energy minister Brian Wilson will chair the review, much to the chagrin of Greenpeace, who said it was like “putting a fox in charge of the hen coop.” Wilson, an advocate of nuclear power, said the review will be finished by the end of the year and will focus on the role of nuclear, coal, gas, oil, renewable energy, combined heat and power and enhanced energy efficiency.

The Labor Party had pledged not to build any nuclear stations, but this could mean the end of that pledge. The party would rather break promises than abandon the unachievable Kyoto Protocol. In order to meet Kyotos targets, Wilson thinks Britain should reduce its carbon emissions. “In the longer term we will need to reduce our carbon emissions further in order to play our part in meeting the challenge of global warming.”

Currently, Britain is heavily dependent on gas and some think the country should diversify. Gas prices have doubled in the past year because the main producers tie their gas prices to oil prices. Because they rely heavily on one source, consumers are very aware of gas price fluctuations.

This dependence on gas has led to the energy review. The plan aims to meet “the challenge of global warming while ensuring secure, diverse and reliable energy supplies at a competitive price.” For all of their posturing on Kyoto, it seems even European countries will find it difficult to meet their targets, as there is much opposition to nuclear power in Britain. Friends of the Earth UK said nuclear technology is dangerous and uneconomic. With that ringing endorsement, the review steams ahead.

Former Clinton Aides Now Admit Kyoto Would Be Costly; Kyoto = Millions of Lost Lives; EU Claims Kyoto Will Be Painless; Insurers

by William Yeatman on June 12, 2001

in Kyoto Negotiations

Former Clinton Aides Now Admit Kyoto Would Be Costly

Amidst major criticism from both domestic environmental groups and European officials, President Bush is receiving aid and comfort from an unexpected source former Clinton Administration officials. Bush has stated that the U.S. will not comply with the Kyoto Protocol because it is “fatally flawed” and would impose undue economic hardships on the country.

Now, according to the June 12 issue of USA Today, “Economists from the Clinton White House now concede that complying with Kyotos mandatory reductions in greenhouse gases would be difficult and more expensive to American consumers than they thought when they were in charge.” This change in tune from the Clintonites is part of the reason that Bush decided to reject Kyoto.

The Clinton Administration was overly optimistic about the costs of Kyoto because its economic analysis was based on unrealistic assumptions. It assumed, for instance, that China and India would accept emissions reduction limits and that they would be able to fully participate in an unlimited international emissions trading system. China has made it clear, however, that it will not accept commitments, and the European Union has remained opposed to unlimited emissions trading.

The Clinton Administration also assumed that industry and consumers would rapidly adopt energy efficient technologies without subsidies. Without Chinas participation, for instance, costs would double under the Clinton analysis. According to Joseph Aldy, who assisted in developing the Clinton estimates, “We always thought the (emissions) targets were very ambitious. But the thing that made us really uneasy about our analysiswas that if our assumptions didnt come true, you could come out with costs that were much, much higher.”

While in office, however, the Clinton Administration never explicitly stated its assumptions, nor did it express any misgivings during several congressional hearings on the matter.

Kyoto = Millions of Lost Lives

Dr. Bjorn Lomborg is causing apoplectic fits across Europe with his recent book, The Skeptical Environmentalist. His views on the Kyoto Protocol are particularly heretical.

The Times of London (June 12, 2001) began its story on Lomborgs views as follows: “The cost of limiting carbon dioxide emissions far outweighs the damage that global warming will eventually do to the world and merely postpones the problem for six years, Bjorn Lomborg, an environmental statistician, has calculated. As a result, he argues, trillions of pounds that might otherwise be spent on fighting poverty and malnutrition and improving infrastructure in developing countries will be wasted.”

Lomborg is an associate professor of statistics at the University of Aarhus in Denmark. He is also an environmentalist and a former member of Greenpeace. His book was originally published in Danish, but has been translated into English and will be published by Cambridge University Press in August.

The Times story continues that Lomborg bases his conclusions on a “four-year audit of a massive set of environmental indicators.” If the Kyoto Protocol is implemented, “millions of lives will be lost that could otherwise be saved and the eventual impact of climate change on the Third World will be much worse as countries will be less equipped to adapt.”

EU Claims Kyoto Will Be Painless

The European Union can easily meet its Kyoto targets, according to a report by the European Climate Change Programme. The report says that, “There are sufficient potential cost-effective measures to cut emissions of greenhouse gases by twice the target set for the 15 nation EU under Kyoto” (Financial Times, June 12, 2001).

Reuters (June 12, 2001) reported that according to a European Commission official, the total cost to the EU to meet its Kyoto target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 8 percent below 1990 levels by 2012 would be 3.7 billion euros per year or about .06 percent of GDP.

It is unclear how the ECCP defines “cost effective.” Given that Kyoto would have almost no effect on predicted global temperatures and hence virtually no benefits, any cost would seem to outweigh the potential benefits.

“These results increase our credibility,” said Margot Wallstrom, the EU environment commissioner. “I hope they will encourage the European Council to restate its commitment to meeting the Kyoto target even if the US withdraws from the process.”

Just before this good news from the EU was released, UPI (NewsMax.com, June 6, 2001) reported that European Union leaders had failed to agree on a EU-wide energy tax. The proposed tax is the main tool to reduce energy consumption and thereby meet the Kyoto targets.

Insurers Not Worried About Global Warming

Proponents of government policies to fight global warming often cite concerns of the reinsurance industry companies that insure the insurers as evidence that catastrophic global warming is real. Indeed, some major reinsurance companies have expressed concern over global warming, but others have pointed out that the upward trend in insurance claims due to natural disasters is almost entirely due to greater economic development in disaster-prone regions, not to global warming.

An article in the May 31 issue of the Palm Beach Post reports that Floridas property insurers arent really concerned about global warming. “At State Farm we do not see global warming as an issue that drives anything,” said Tom Hagerty, the companys Florida spokesman. “We have not changed any of our plans or policies on the basis of global warming information or on the various hurricane activity forecasts.” Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of American said, “The industry doesnt treat it as a serious issue. Its not factored into rating decisions.”

Bush Reaffirms Opposition to Kyoto, Proposes Alternatives; COP-6 President Presents Plan

by William Yeatman on June 12, 2001

in Politics

Bush Reaffirms Opposition to Kyoto, Proposes Alternatives

President George W. Bush made a major policy statement on global warming and the Kyoto Protocol on June 11, immediately before flying off to a week of meetings with European leaders. Although the speech may have been intended to assure European leaders that he is committed to taking action on global warming, his strong, reiterated opposition to the Kyoto Protocol drew immediate criticism throughout Europe before Air Force one landed in Madrid.

Bush said that the Kyoto Protocol was “fatally flawed in fundamental ways” and “unrealistic.” He noted, “Many countries cannot meet their Kyoto targets. The targets themselves are arbitrary and not based upon science.”

He stated clearly that he accepted that the global mean temperature had “risen about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years.” But he went on to emphasize that major scientific uncertainties remain. “We do not know how much effect natural variations in climate may have had on warming,” and hence the influence of manmade emissions; “how much our climate could or will change in the future” or “how fast change will occur or even how some of our actions could impact it;” and “no one can say with any certainty what constitutes a dangerous level of warming and therefore what level must be avoided.”

Opposing Kyoto does not mean that the U.S. will drop out of the ongoing negotiations process. The administration will attend COP-6.5 in Bonn, Germany in July. President Bush proposed several actions, including two research programs, the Climate Change Research Initiative, to further study global warming, and the Climate Change Technology Initiative, to subsidize the development of technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These programs resemble ongoing Clinton Administration programs.

He also stated that these are only the first steps that the administration will propose in the next few months. Inside EPA reported on June 8 that options under active consideration include several cap-and-trade systems for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and a crash program to develop technology to sequester carbon dioxide from hydrocarbon combustion.

COP-6 President Presents Plan

Mr. Jan Pronk, president of the UNFCCCs sixth conference of the parties and Dutch environment minister, released a “consolidated negotiating text” on June 11. It is meant to serve as the starting point for the resumption of COP-6 in Bonn, Germany, July 16-28. The 180 or so pages may be downloaded at www.unfccc.de. Pronk has also scheduled preliminary informal discussion June 25-28 in the Hague.

Pronks proposed negotiating text makes significant concessions to the position of Japan. It might therefore be concluded that Pronks strategy is to isolate the United States by drawing Japan into full support of the Kyoto Protocol.

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