A paper published in the August 13 issue of Science magazine made the headlines when it predicted more heat waves in
The papers findings were, however, inconclusive, as the predicted range of heat waves for 2080-2099 overlapped with the modeled range for the current climate. In other words, the paper found that the number of heat waves might decrease in 80 years time. Moreover, the models also relied on the discredited SRES scenarios referred to above.
A new study, Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on
Global warming could cause dramatically hotter summers and a depleted snow pack in
Under the most optimistic computer model, periods of extreme heat would quadruple in
The most pessimistic model projects five to seven times as many heat-related deaths in
The research was based on outputs from two models, including the Hadley Center Model, which reviewers admitted during the course of the National Assessment on Climate Change performed no better than a table of random numbers in predicting past climate.
Furthermore, the model was run on the basis of data from the discredited SRES scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that predict countries such as Zimbabwe, Vanuatu and North Korea overtaking the USA in per capita income by 2100. There was no discussion of the appropriateness or robustness of these data choices in the published paper.
The global temperature report for July 2004 from the
The data show that the global temperature was 0.21C (about 0.38F) below the 20-year average for July. This followed on from a June temperature about 0.02C below the average. Only 3 months in the last 41 had been below this norm.
Dr. John Christy of UAH said, This was the coolest July since 1992, when global temperatures were cooled by dust thrown into the atmosphere by the
The Christian Science Monitor (Aug. 13) has endorsed a policy of increasing the price of gas by means of a 50 cents per gallon federal tax.
It says, While the higher oil prices have dampened economic growth, they do serve two useful purposes. They’re another wake-up call that available crude-oil reserves are expected to decline by mid-21st century. And they’re a reminder that the best incentive for switching to alternative energy sources or better conservation is to keep oil prices highand, most of all, steadily high.
The editorial concludes, Imagine if the
In a press release issued August 10 assessing the state of nuclear power worldwide, the International Atomic Energy Agency regretted the lack of progress on
The relevant section reads, From the viewpoint of the IAEA, no progress was made in 2003 on the Kyoto Protocol, which would help make nuclear powers avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions valuable to investors. The next round of talks on energy and sustainable development is scheduled for the 13th session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development in 20062007.
A large increase in the supply of energy will be required in coming decades to power economic development, the IAEA recognizes, projecting that to the year 2030 the part nuclear power will play in the global energy supply will first grow and then decrease.
The agency estimates a 20 percent increase in global nuclear generation until the end of 2020, followed by a decrease, resulting in global nuclear generation in 2030 that will be only 12 percent higher than in 2002. Nuclear powers share of global electricity generation is projected at 12 percent in 2030, compared with 16 percent in 2002, the IAEA said.
The agency expressed concern that the nuclear expertise that exists today might not be passed on to the next generation of scientists and engineers, now that the rapid nuclear expansion of the 1970s and 1980s has leveled off.
Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson strongly criticized the lawsuit recently launched by eight state Attorneys General against several electricity generators for creating a public nuisance by contributing to global warming (Aug. 11).
Samuelson concluded his argument, It’s easy to be against global warming but not easy to be for the things that might control it. Barring some magical technological breakthrough, lowering U.S. emissions would require some or all of the following: tougher regulation or higher gasoline prices to force drivers into smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles; restrictions on coal-burning power plants; encouragement of nuclear power; expansion of drilling for natural gas and more imports of liquefied natural gas; and regulations or tax penalties to discourage large homes.
No judge should try to impose new policies. These issues belong in the political arena, not the courts. But even if the
Spitzer and his allies can’t change any of this. Their suit mainly allows them to advertise themselves to people who don’t know better. Here’s Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal sounding off:
Our lawsuit is a huge, historic first step toward holding companies accountable for these pernicious pollutants that threaten our health, economy, environment, and quality of life now and increasingly in the future. The eventual effects . . . [will be] increasing asthma and heat-related illnesses, eroding shorelines, floods and other natural disasters, loss of forests and other precious resources.
Actually, this contains considerable distortion. In truth, no one knows how much the world will warm, exactly when or with what consequences. Any self-respecting judge will dismiss this suitand do more. Because the only point is political self-promotion, the judge ought to require the attorneys general to pay court costs and defendants’ costs from their own pockets. There’s a name for what the attorneys general are making of themselves: a public nuisance.
Margot Wallstrom of
Dimas, from the Greek conservative party New Democracy, is believed to be less personally committed to environmentalism than Wallstrom. Recent months had seen Wallstrom argue publicly with Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio of
Dimas appointment has already worried some in
If the European Commission really wanted to signal that it didn’t give a monkey’s [British slang for couldnt care less] about the environment then it would probably choose as its new environment commissioner an old, rightwing free-marketeer lawyer who used to work for the World Bank and had responsibility for Africa in the bad old 1970s. Impossible? Not in the slightest. Welcome Stavros Dimas, 62, Greek economist, Wall Street banker, and conservative lawyer. The fragile hopes of
The forthcoming study claims that each of 15 recommended strategies could eliminate up to 1 billion tons annually of carbon emissions by 2054, though by not considering their costs the authors make their recommendations useless as public policy proposals. The study basically says that if you coerce everybody to use a lot less energy and dont care about the cost, you can significantly reduce emissions, said Competitive Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Marlo Lewis. We needed
CMIs Strategy 1 is to double the fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg. However, the average passenger car in the
CMIs Strategy 2 is to decrease the number of car miles traveled by half. But the
CMI Strategy 5 is to replace 1,400 coal electric plants with natural gas-powered facilities. But
CMI Strategy 9 is to add double the current global nuclear capacity to replace coal-based electricity. This proposal should go over big with the no-nukes environmental establishment.
CMI Strategy 10 is to increase wind capacity by 50 times relative to today, for a total of 2 million large windmills. The word boondoggle was invented for just such proposals, and in case CMI has not heard, theres a growing grassroots backlash against wind farms.
CMI Strategy 13 is to increase ethanol production 50 times by creating biomass plantations with an area equal to 1/6th of world cropland. This strategy is a prescription for decimating millions of acres of forest and other wildlife habitat. I thought environmentalists liked trees and wildlife, but I guess these days anyone can qualify as long as they embrace the
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Extreme weather conditions in the Great Plains, specifically dust bowls, have long been a natural occurrence, according to a recent Duke University study.
Jim Clark, H.L. Blomquist Professor of Biology at Duke Universitys Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, summarizes: “What would happen was that the grass would disappear [because of naturally occurring droughts]. So the fuel for fire would be lost. We’d see the erosion start. The chemistry of the lakes would change. We would see these dust-bowl effects. And then, within several decades to a century later, the grasses would come back, fires would start back up and erosion would stop.”
According to Clark, the regularity of these ancient droughts make much more recent Great Plains droughts in the 1890s and 1930s appear “unremarkable” by comparison, even though the contemporary ones “walloped people.” An understanding that extreme weather events have long occurred seriously puts in to question environmentalists assumptions that human activity causes extreme weather events. In fact, Clark went so far as to say, “It’s not only climate change from changing CO2 content in the atmosphere, but also this natural variability out there that we don’t fully understand.” (Duke University press release, Aug. 2).
The Bush Administrations Climate Change Science Program is beginning the first of 21 major climate assessments despite a fiscal crunch. The first assessment addresses the long-running debate over whether discrepancies exist between warming rates at the Earths surface and readings taken from the middle troposphere, where most weather occurs.
The apparent difference between the rate of warming at the Earth’s surface and the middle layer of the atmosphere has proven to be one of the most enduring issues of contention in climate change science. Computer models used to simulate climate conditions predict faster warming in the mid-troposphere than on the ground, while observations taken from satellites and weather balloons have contradicted those predictions by showing that the surface has warmed at least twice as fast as the atmosphere since 1980. This disparity has led many to criticize computer model results, which are the bedrock of climate change projections, as unreliable.
Critics of the new study question its value. “The big challenge is, are they going to say anything different than the academy concluded a couple of years ago?” asked Anthony Janetos of the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, referring to a 2000 National Research Council study on the temperature data that concluded that both surface and satellite data sets were accurate, but did not account for the disparity.
The study does have supporters, such as John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville, who along with colleague Roy Spencer developed the satellite temperature dataset. Christy believes the CCSP research is essential to take into account the peer-reviewed studies that have been published in the past two to three years. “An update at a minimum is what’s needed on this issue,” Christy said.
The study will be completed despite the tight monetary crunch the CCSP must deal with. Janetos believes “the prospects for a lot of new funding are really quite dim.” This is largely because the Bush Administration’s fiscal year 2005 budget request for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would eliminate the government’s abrupt climate change research program as well as cut its paleoclimatology laboratory by half, potentially compromising the agency’s ability to conduct climate research (Greenwire, July 28).
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