2014

Post image for Has Global Warming Made Heat Waves Deadlier in Sweden?

Has global warming made heat waves more lethal in Sweden? That’s the conclusion of a study by Swedish scientist Daniel Oudin Åström and colleagues, published last October in Nature Climate Change (NCC). The researchers examined the association of mortality and extreme temperatures in Stockholm. They found that the number of “heat extremes” increased from 220 in 1900-1920 to 381 in 1980-2009. After adjusting for urban heat-island effects, they conclude that climate change was responsible for 288 out of 689 heat-related deaths in the latter period.

Why mention this now? Last week, NCC published a rebuttal by Chip Knappenberger, Patrick Michaels, and Anthony Watts. The authors also posted commentaries on their respective blogs.

One thing that puzzled me right off the bat is Åström et al.’s definition of “heat extreme”: any two-day period when the temperature exceeds 67.2ºF. To some of us who hail from the Sun Belt, 67°F is still sweater weather.

Knappenberger et al. find two major flaws in the Åström study. First, the Swedish scientists mistakenly assume that all warming not due to urban heat islands must be due to anthropogenic climate change. But Stockholm’s climate is also affected by a natural mode of climate variability called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The AMO was primarily in its negative (cold) phase during 1900-1929 and primarily in its positive (warm) phase during 1990-2009. The difference between the two phases “is likely to be responsible for some portion of the increase in extreme-heat events identified by Åström et al. and inappropriately attributed to global climate change,” Watts writes.

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Second, and more importantly, the Åström team ignores a relevant finding from another Åström et al. study on extreme temperatures and mortality in Stockholm. The key concept here is “relative risk” — an estimate of how much likelier an individual is to die from exposure to a particular risk factor relative to individuals who are not exposed.

In that study, Åström and colleagues found that the relative risk of dying from extreme heat in Stockholm was about 20% in the beginning of the 20th century. But in the NCC study, they estimate that the relative risk of dying from extreme heat in 1980-2009 was 4.6%. In other words, people in Stockholm today are only about one-fourth as likely to die during heat waves than was the case in the early 20th century. [click to continue…]

…because agency employees are too busy watching pornography!

Allow me to explain: The statutes that authorize EPA’s regulatory programs—the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, etc.—are rife with date-certain deadlines by which EPA must complete its regulatory responsibilities. The agency, however, is woeful at meeting these deadlines. For example, since 1994, EPA has missed 98% (196 out of 200) of its Clean Air Act deadlines, by an average of 5 years. Because EPA won’t do its job, environmental special interests are able to leverage a legal strategy known as “sue and settle” into effective control of the EPA’s regulatory agenda. See this issue brief for the whole story.

I’d long thought that EPA ignored its statutory duties because the agency was pouring agency resources into greenhouse gas regulations (which is, mind you, a discretionary regime—unlike statutory deadlines, which are non-discretionary, and should, therefore, take priority). But now I’m not so sure. Reports the Washington Free Beacon’s CJ Ciaramella.

An Environmental Protection Agency official spent up to six hours a day on the taxpayer dime looking at pornography, according to the EPA Inspector General.

Allan Williams, the deputy assistant inspector general for investigations, told the House Oversight Committee Wednesday that his office had discovered an EPA official who habitually watched porn on a government computer.

“One such investigation involves a career EPA employee who allegedly stored pornographic materials on an EPA network server shared by colleagues,” Williams testified. “When an OIG special agent arrived at this employee’s work space to conduct an interview, the special agent witnessed the employee actively viewing pornography on his government-issued computer. Subsequently, the employee confessed to spending, on average, between two and six hours per day viewing pornography while at work. The OIG’s investigation determined that the employee downloaded and viewed more than 7,000 pornographic files during duty hours.”

Washington Free Beacon later reported that this particular employee received a performance bonus, despite his evident porn problem. Below, I’ve posted video of the House Government & Oversight Reform hearing exchange, in which the EPA confirms the bonus. Unbelievable!

 

The federal government’s third National Climate Assessment was released yesterday with one message that was repeated throughout the media.  That message is: Climate change is already disrupting the economy, people’s lives, and ecosystems across the country.  IT’S REAL!  IT’S HERE!  IT’S NOW!  AND IT’S BAD!

Here are the first few paragraphs of a story from the Washington Post.

The government’s newest national assessment of climate change declares that increased global warming is affecting every part of the United States.

The report released Tuesday cites wide and severe impacts: more sea-level rise, flooding, storm surges, precipitation and heat waves in the Northeast; frequent water shortages and hurricanes in the Southeast and the Caribbean; and more drought and wildfires in the Southwest.

“For a long time, we have perceived climate change as an issue that’s distant, affecting just polar bears or something that matters to our kids,” said Katharine Hayhoe, a Texas Tech University professor and a co-author of the report. “This shows it’s not just in the future; it matters today. Many people are feeling the effects.”

The federal climate assessment — the third since 2000 — brought together hundreds of experts in academia and government to guide U.S. policy based on the best available climate science.

A quick internet search produced several hundred similar stories.

There are two obvious problems with the National Climate Assessment.  The first is the fact that the global mean temperature has not increased in the past seventeen years.  This means that the Assessment is claiming that the effects (disruption) are preceding the cause (warming).  I guess the disruption will really be bad if temperatures do actually start to go up.

Global Mean Surface Temperatures 1997-2014

Global Mean Surface Temperatures 1997-2014

The second problem with the Assessment is that it does not recognize that all climate disruptions are not created equal.  Does the Obama Administration really think that Americans have already forgotten the past five months of winter?  The fact is that cold, snowy weather is much more disruptive to people’s lives and the economy than hot weather.

As a reminder, here are a few highlights from the winter just past: [click to continue…]

…When I see a headline like this: “Americans Are Outliers in Views on Climate Change.”

The article comes from the New York Times. Here’s the chart that makes the reporter’s point:

According to a recent Pew poll, the figure for the U.S. is closer to 30%

According to a recent Gallup poll, the figure for the U.S. is closer to 30%

On the one hand, this chart may represent Americans’ famed frankness relative to the rest of the world. After all, national populations that purportedly care much more about the supposed threat of catastrophic climate change, like Germany and Japan, are turning to “dirty” coal in increasing volumes as they turn away from nuclear power. When it comes to choosing between carbon intensive electricity and no electricity at all, the Germans and Japanese are going with reliable power, global warming be damned.

On the other hand, perhaps the chart is evidence that the U.S.A. really is a City Upon a Hill. In a world rife with clear and present dangers to the immediate welfare of living human beings, among which climate change (“a rich man’s issue“) is decidedly not included, God bless Americans for keeping their priorities in perspective. For my view on the matter, see this interview with SNL. [click to continue…]

Post image for Cooperative Federalism Hangs in Balance before the Supreme Court

In a post yesterday, I explained that the Supreme Court’s 6-2 ruling in EPA v. EME Homer City Generation denied States a broad right to be a “first implementer” under the cooperative federalism scheme established by the Clean Air Act. While EPA v. EME Homer City Generation is undoubtedly an important federalism case, there is a cert petition before the Supreme Court with implications far more profound for the balance of power between States and EPA under the statute. In the petition, which I’ve reposted at the bottom of this post, the State of Oklahoma has appealed to the Supreme Court to answer the following question: Which sovereign merits judicial deference when State and Federal governments disagree over factual findings in the course of implementing the Clean Air Act?

Recently, I described this supremely consequential matter:

The Clean Air Act is a “cooperative federalism” arrangement, which establishes a State-Federal partnership to improve the nation’s air quality. Because both sovereigns carry a congressional grant of authority, both possess legitimate claims to judicial deference. Complicating matters further, the State, in exercising its share of congressionally delegated authority pursuant to the Clean Air Act, funds its own implementing agency, which establishes its own administrative code. As a result, each sovereign that is responsible for executing the Clean Air Act can claim a congressional delegation, agency expertise, and political accountability—i.e., all the trappings of deference. So what happens when State and Federal Governments, in the course of implementing their respective delegations of authority, disagree on factual findings, with billions of dollars in compliance costs at stake? To which sovereign should the courts defer?

It’s a tricky question, and much depends on the answer. For starters, the principle of deference to agency fact findings, discretionary determinations, and statutory interpretations is a powerful shield for agency decisions running the gauntlet of judicial review. Whichever sovereign carries this defense is much more likely than not to win the day when a court reviews a federalism conflict pursuant to the Clean Air Act….Both state and federal agencies could render reasonable, yet different decisions on the same matter. In the case of such a federalism dispute, a reviewing court is in no position to split the difference. It must choose which sovereign merits respect, and which doesn’t.

Those are the stakes. And here are the details behind the cert petition that, if granted by the Supreme Court, would lead to a reckoning over these stakes: [click to continue…]

Post image for WaPo Gets Another Koch Fact Wrong

In an article today about the White House’s doom and gloom National Climate Assessment, Washington Post reporter Darryl Fears goes out of his way to tar those opposed to economically disastrous and ineffective global warming policies as being under the thumb of libertarian businessmen Charles and David Koch:

Other contrarians include libertarians at the Cato Institute, founded by Charles and David Koch, brothers whose multi-billion dollar fortune is partly derived from fossil fuels, and are well-known to deny the impacts of climate change.

Cato researchers Paul C. Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels said the assessment was “biased toward pessimism, the opposite of how Wolfe described it. As a resource, it is meant to justify “federal regulation aimed towards mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.”

However, in an effort to deploy the tired progressive guilt by association argumentum ad Kochum, Fears falls flat: the Cato Institute was not “founded by Charles and David Koch.” As the first line of the Cato Institute Wikipedia article correctly states, Cato was founded “by Ed Crane, Murray Rothbard, and Charles Koch.” If you don’t trust Wikipedia, here’s Will Wilkinson mentioning the three Cato founders in The Economist: “Charles Koch founded the Cato Institute in 1977 with Ed Crane and Murray Rothbard.” To be clear, that is but one brother Koch, not two, as a Cato Institute founder. To be even clearer, Charles was one of the Cato founders, not David. Good? Great.

This isn’t the first time a Washington Post reporter has thrown truth out the window in a sad attempt to smear the Kochs and the organizations they support. Recently, Post reporters Steve Mufson and Juliet Eilperin were caught publishing massive falsehoods regarding Koch Industries’ Canadian oil sands lease holdings. John Hinderacker produced an excellent smack-down of Mufson and Eilperin’s incredibly lazy reporting and their subsequent mealymouthed walk-back.

I know the newspaper business is struggling, but maybe the Post should consider hiring a fact checker for all things Koch. This is just getting embarrassing.

[click to continue…]

Per SNL,

UBS Securities LLC has downgraded Southern Co. shares to “sell”from “neutral” after the company disclosed cost overruns have pushed the in-service date for the Plant Ratcliffe project in Mississippi to mid-2015.

The news provides further evidence that one of the Obama administration’s top climate policy priorities is illegal.

Allow me to briefly explain. The Plant Ratcliffe project is the only carbon capture and sequestration system currently being constructed in the U.S. Last January, the EPA proposed the Carbon Pollution Standard, which would mandate that all new coal-fired power plants install carbon capture and sequestration. In the proposal, EPA relied on the Plant Ratcliffe project to demonstrate that CCS technology is “adequately demonstrated” as is required by the Clean Air Act.

However, the Clean Air Act forbids EPA’s imposition of a technology that is “exorbitantly” expensive. And the Plant Ratcliffe project, with a price tag of $5.5 billion for 582 megawatts capacity, is well more than 500 percent costlier than a comparably-sized conventional coal fired power plant outfitted with the latest environmental controls. A 500 percent price increase is excellent evidence that EPA’s Carbon Pollution Standard is “exorbitantly” expensive and, as a result, is illegal. The breaking news relayed above is further evidence. Thanks to the incredible costs of CCS at a single power plant, financial analysts are downgrading an entire utility’s stock. [click to continue…]

Last Friday afternoon, my colleague Chris Horner spoke about the EPA’s war on coal on The Blaze:

Today, the Competitive Enterprise Institute sued the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) for flouting the Freedom of Information Act. CEI’s Chris Horner asked OSTP to produce work-related emails that OSTP’s Director, John Holdren, stored in an email account at his former employer, the environmental-pressure group Woods Hole Research Center. OSTP has resisted producing them.

What is ironic about this is that OSTP’s Director, soon after taking office, lectured OSTP employees about not conducting official business using private email accounts, and about the need to forward all work-related communications to their agency email account in order to comply with federal record-keeping laws. (See May 10, 2010 Memo from OSTP Director John Holdren to all OSTP staff, Subject: Reminder: Compliance with the Federal Records Act and the President’s Ethics Pledge, at 1, available as Exhibit B to the letter at this link.)

Apparently, the longer an official is in power, and the less he fears losing power, the less he cares about government transparency and the rule of law. The complaint is reposted immediately below. [click to continue…]

In the past month, federal watchdogs have raised two red flags over the Department of Energy’s green bank, a.k.a. the Loan Programs Office.

In April, the Energy Department Inspector General reported that the Loan Programs Office had failed to heed the advice of its solar energy expert, who had warned against the issuance of a stimulus-funded loan guarantee to Abound, a Colorado-based solar panel manufacturer that went bankrupt, costing taxpayers scores of millions of dollars.

Last week it was the Government Accountability Office’s turn. On May 1, the GAO released a report titled, “DOE Should Fully Develop Its Loan Monitoring Function and Evaluate Its Effectiveness.” The opening of the executive summary does not inspire confidence regarding the Energy Department’s ability to play the role of green energy investment banker:

“The Department of Energy (DOE) has not fully developed or consistently adhered to loan monitoring policies for its loan programs. In particular…policies for evaluating and mitigating program-wide risk remain incomplete and outdated.”

Lest you think that GAO was picking at needless details, consider: Included among the “loan policies” that the Energy Department has “not fully developed” are the credit reports (!!!) on the loan applicants. That’s a pretty glaring problem for a LOAN Programs Office that already has a $30 billion portfolio. Report reposted below.

GAO Report on DOE Loan Guarantee Program