Marlo Lewis

Post image for At Last: A Report on the Social Benefits of Carbon

Although invented by academics curious about the economic implications of climate models, social cost of carbon analysis quickly became a form of computer-aided sophistry. Its political function is to hoodwink the gullible into believing that fossil fuels are unaffordable no matter how cheap and that so-called renewable energy technologies (chiefly wind and solar power) are a bargain at any price.

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is an estimate of the damage supposedly inflicted on society by the emission of a ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) in a given year. SCC estimates derive from a host of assumptions about highly speculative issues including: climate sensitivity (how much warming results from a given increase in CO2 concentrations); the impacts of warming on weather patterns, ice-sheet dynamics, and eco-system services; the economic impacts of the latter on agriculture and other climate-sensitive industries; and how human adaptive capabilities will evolve (how technology will develop) as the world warms. In addition, because the SCC is a guesstimate of cumulative damage over time, modelers can get big, scary-sounding numbers just by selecting low discount rates to calculate the present value of future projected damages.

But, as noted repeatedly on this blog, even if SCC analysis were an exact science, it would still tell only one side of the story. It would still tell us nothing about the social benefits of carbon energy, hence nothing about the social costs of carbon mitigation. Divorced from analysis of carbon’s social benefits, SCC estimation even at its theoretical best is partisan advocacy posing as objective research.

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requires federal agencies to estimate both the costs and benefits of proposed regulations and, to the extent permitted by law, ensure that the benefits of regulation justify the costs. In 2009, the Obama administration convened an interagency working group (IWG) on the social cost of carbon, which has so far produced two reports (2010 and 2013). Unsurprisingly the 2013 SCC estimates were about 50% higher than the 2010 estimates. The next report’s estimates will no doubt be higher still because warmism demands that its votaries always conclude that climate change is “worse than we thought.” That the administration would ever convene an IWG on the social benefits of carbon is unthinkable.

So where can citizens turn to for balance? I have good news. In The Historic, Present and Future Societal Benefits of Fossil Fuels, a report prepared for the American Council for Clean Coal Energy (ACCE), Dr. Roger Bezdek of Management Information Systems, Inc. (MISI) not only documents the manifold economic and health benefits of carbon energy, he also makes a powerful case that the evident societal benefits of carbon outweigh the conjectural costs by orders of magnitude — a range of 40-1 to 400-1. [click to continue…]

Post image for Oil Export Ban and Capitalists against Capitalism: When Will They Ever Learn?

Capitalists against capitalism are a bane of modern society. Although sometimes clever, anti-market business lobbying is neither honorable nor genuinely prudent. Government would be smaller and our economy more prosperous if business leaders eschewed all forms of rent-seeking and corporate welfare.

What makes this evergreen reflection timely and even urgent is the debate over energy exports.

National Journal’s Amy Harder reports that, on Wednesday, independent refiner New Jersey-based PBF Energy hosted a phone call with six competitors to consider joint lobbying against repeal of the decades-old ban on U.S. crude oil exports. Other participants on the call included Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES), and Delta Airlines’ Monroe Energy. According to one account, Valero and Marathon indicated they would not join the lobbying effort. Harder notes the similarity between PBF Energy’s agenda and that of Dow Chemical, which last year organized a coalition of chemical companies to restrict natural gas exports.

Freedom to export is an essential component of free enterprise. Economic liberty primarily means the right to offer one’s goods and services for sale. Exporting is just competing for customers on the other side of lines drawn on maps. In reality, every sale to anyone living outside the walls of your domicile is an export. What we today call capitalism Adam Smith more accurately called the “system of natural liberty” — the spontaneous order that flourishes when government protects rather than suppresses people’s freedom to “truck, barter, and trade.”

Somebody should remind PBF and Dow that private property is the bedrock institution of capitalism, and that export bans and restrictions violate property rights. Such policies are inherently confiscatory. [click to continue…]

Post image for Sen. Murkowski Calls for Lifting Crude Oil Export Ban

In a keynote speech at the Brookings Institution today, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) called for an end to the decades-old ban on U.S. crude oil exports.

Murkowski, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, also released a white paper on U.S. energy export policy, A Signal to the World: Renovating the Architecture of U.S. Energy Exports.

Total U.S. energy production reached its highest level ever in July 2013, Murkowski noted in her speech. As a consequence, U.S. exports of coal, dry natural gas, and finished petroleum products are at their highest levels on record.

However, those welcome developments came about “in spite of the federal government, not because of it, as the president frequently seems to imply,” she said.

More importantly, U.S. energy trade rules “were written long ago for a now bygone world in which scarcity, not abundance, was the prevailing mindset,” Murkowski noted. Outmoded regulations hamper exports of liquefied natural gas and virtually prohibit exports of crude oil and condensates. This antiquated policy architecture holds back the leading source of new investment, job creation, and competitive advantage in the U.S. economy.

Worse, the current regime creates significant economic risk. U.S. refineries were not built to handle the light sweet crude produced in the Bakken and Eagleford shale plays. The export ban could soon create a glut, forcing producers to choose between losing money on sales or leaving the oil in the ground. The oil boom could become a bust, warns International Energy Agency executive director Maria van der Hoeven, whom Murkowski cites.

Status-quo defenders claim lifting the ban would increase gasoline prices by reducing the discount at which crude oil trades in U.S. markets. That reasoning is flawed. As Blake Clayton of the Council on Foreign Relations points out, the discount currently benefits a handful of refiners, not consumers, because gasoline prices reflect global crude and finished petroleum product prices, not domestic refiners’ production costs:

As it stands, the primary beneficiaries of the export ban are a few fortunate oil refineries in the central United States—not U.S. consumers—that are able to buy crude oil at depressed prices before selling it at prevailing market rates. Current law arbitrarily works to the benefit of these companies.

Crude oil exports would likely benefit consumers not only by fueling GDP growth but also by moderating gasoline prices. By spurring investment in production, freedom to export would accelerate the increase in global petroleum supply. That, in turn, would put downward pressure on global petroleum prices — the chief factor determining gasoline prices. As Murkowski’s white paper explains:

First, gasoline is a petroleum product and petroleum products are subject to global pricing, just like crude oil. To the extent that greater U.S. production of crude oil puts downward pressure on inter-national oil prices (e.g., the Brent benchmark), then production increases have benefited U.S. consumers by marginally lowering gasoline and crude oil prices.

By the same token, retaining the ban puts consumers at risk. A shale oil glut would depress production and slow the growth in global supply, putting upward pressure on gasoline prices:

To the extent that the crude oil export ban contributes to supply disruptions and decelerating oil production (which affects employment), then the American consumer will suffer the consequences. If the refining mismatch causes production to become shut-in, as some analysts suggest, then prices could actually rise and increase U.S. dependence on imports.

Murkowski believes the Obama administration already has the authority to lift the ban: [click to continue…]

Post image for UK Fuel Poverty: Green Energy Policies Partly to Blame

Today’s Climatewire (subscription required) reports that in the UK last year, “more than 30,000 winter deaths were thought to be caused by fuel poverty, up by a third from the previous year, according to the Office for National Statistics.”

What makes fuel poverty deadly? “Poor heating and a lack of insulation are known to increase the likelihood of strokes in the elderly and to exacerbate asthma and rheumatic disease in all age groups,” explains Climatewire correspondent Erica Rex.

Until last month, UK law defined fuel poverty as a household that spends more than 10% of its income “to maintain an adequate level of warmth.” The law now defines it as “above average fuel costs” that leave households with “a residual income below the official poverty line.” That seems obfuscatory. Implicitly excluded from the revised definition are households that can’t afford to heat their homes because of high average fuel costs.

As Rex notes, the redefinition instantly reduced the official tally of fuel poor in the UK from 3.2 million to 2.4 million, or from 15% to 11%. The reclassification does not mitigate the hardship of people like “Gemma,” a single mother of three interviewed for the article, who skips meals “just to keep the heating on.”

Regardless of how fuel poverty is defined, the issue is heating up, partly because Britain is facing the worst winter in 60 years, but also because government policies mandate increasing reliance on renewable energy.

According to Department of Energy and Climate Change figures, so-called green policies account for “only” 10% of the UK heating bill. On the other hand, DECC projects those policies to increase electricity prices 33% by 2020 and 41% by 2030.

Although commonly associated with the UK and Ireland, fuel poverty is more pervasive. The map below shows the percentage of European households that cannot afford to keep their homes adequately warm.

eu-inability-to-heat-home-map-031013

Source: EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU SILC) [click to continue…]

Post image for Social Cost of Carbon: DOE Rejects Petition to Reconsider Microwave Rule

On Christmas eve, the Department of Energy (DOE) rejected the Landmark Legal Foundation’s petition to reconsider the agency’s final rule establishing first-ever energy-efficiency standards for microwave ovens.

LLF argues that the rule violates the Administrative Procedure Act, the federal law governing how agencies develop and adopt regulations. The final rule’s cost-benefit analysis incorporates the Obama administration’s revised (higher) 2013 social cost of carbon (SCC) estimates. Those estimates were not in the proposed rule, so the public had no opportunity to comment on them. In addition, LLF warns, with this “unilateral change,” all agency cost-benefit analyses “will be drastically affected,” potentially influencing administration policy on “everything from power plants to the Keystone XL pipeline.”

Whether or not the microwave rule itself has such wide-ranging implications, SCC analysis is a potent weapon in the war on coal and other fossil fuels. As a pretext for expanding government control of the economy, redistributing wealth, and rigging energy markets, nothing beats the social cost of carbon.

The SCC is an estimate of damages allegedly inflicted on society by a ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in a given year. Ratchet up carbon’s estimated social cost by about 50%, as the administration did in 2013, and every mandated or proposed reduction in CO2 emissions suddenly appears to be 50% more valuable — i.e., 50% less costly. This is a critical political asset, notes Cato Institute scholar Chip Kappenberger, “as costs are often the greatest barrier to approval.”

DOE’s argument for rejecting the LLF petition may be summarized as follows: [click to continue…]

Post image for Supreme Court Global Warming Case: Does EPA Permitting of Greenhouse Gases ‘Deform’ the Statute?

In Utility Air Regulatory Group v. EPA, seven parties are petitioning the Supreme Court to overturn the EPA’s regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from stationary sources through the Clean Air Act’s prevention of significant deterioration (PSD) preconstruction permit program and Title V operating permit program.

The sole question before the Court is:

Whether EPA permissibly determined [in its April 2010 Timing Rule] that its regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from new motor vehicles triggered permitting requirements under the Clean Air Act for stationary sources that emit greenhouse gases.

UARG v. EPA is a very big deal. Congress has never enacted a bill to regulate greenhouse gases from stationary sources, and it’s far from certain courts will uphold the EPA’s proposed “carbon pollution rule” to regulate just one type of stationary source — electric power plants. Yet the Timing Rule extends regulatory requirements to potentially all “major” greenhouse gas emitters of whatever type or description, throughout the entire economy, in one fell swoop.

The Timing Rule codifies the EPA’s legal theory that regulation of any air pollutant under any part of the Clean Air Act automatically makes major sources of that pollutant “subject to regulation” under PSD and Title V. Thus, according to the Timing Rule, major sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), the chief anthropogenic greenhouse gas, became subject to regulation on Jan. 2, 2011, the day the EPA’s greenhouse gas Tailpipe Rule took effect.

As even the EPA acknowledges, however, the Timing Rule leads straight to absurd results, because CO2 is emitted in much greater quantities and by many more sources than any pollutant that can cause “significant deterioration” of air quality.

The Clean Air Act defines “major” source as one with the potential to emit 250 tons per year of an air pollutant (PSD) or 100 tons per year (Title V). Only large industrial facilities emit air quality contaminants in those quantities. In contrast, upwards of 1 million small entities, including office buildings, churches, hospitals, schools, and commercial restaurants, combust enough heating oil or natural gas to emit 250 tons of CO2 annually. An estimated 6.1 million small entities, including some large single-family residences, emit 100 tons of CO2 annually.

The regulatory results of the Timing Rule are absurd in two main ways:

  1. Regulation of myriad small “major” sources conflicts with Congress’s intent to exclude non-industrial facilities from PSD and Title V regulation.
  2. Expanding by orders of magnitude the number of PSD/Title V-regulated sources would overwhelm permitting agencies’ administrative resources, causing ever-growing bottlenecks and delays that cripple environmental enforcement and economic development alike.

Rather than draw the obvious conclusion that Congress never intended for the EPA to apply PSD and Title V to greenhouse gases, the agency in June 2010 issued a Tailoring Rule, which effectively rewrites the statutory definitions of “major” source so that only facilities emitting 100,000 tons of greenhouse gases will be subject to regulation. The Tailoring Rule is itself an absurd solution, however, because agencies have no power under the U.S. Constitution to amend statutes.

All seven petitioner groups in UARG v. EPA argue that the Timing Rule conflicts with congressional intent. However, the brief submitted by the Energy Intensive Manufacturers Working Group on Greenhouse Gas Regulation and the Glass Packaging Institute catalogues several ways in which the Timing Rule ‘deforms’ the permitting provisions. I found much of this discussion new and compelling.

Excerpts from the brief follow.

[click to continue…]

Post image for WUWT Launches Tornado Reference Page

The indefatigable Anthony Watts this week launched a Tornado Reference Page on WattsUpWithThat.Com (WUWT).

Further rebutting the “worse than we thought” mantra of the climate doomsters, Watts posts a graph from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center:

Tornado  US Inflation Adjusted Annual Trend and Percentile Rating, Dec 22, 2013

The figure compares the 2013 tornado count as of Dec. 22 with those of the previous mininum and maximum years in the 58-year record from 1954 through 2012. As Watts observes, “the current tornado count of 790 for 2013 is 154 tornadoes below the historical minimum of 944, 497 tornadoes below the 50th percentile of 1287 and 1089 tornadoes below the historical maximum 1879.”

The data in the graph are “inflation-adjusted,” NASA explains, to offset “the increase in tornado reports over the last 54 years [that] is almost entirely due to secular trends such as population increase, increased tornado awareness, and more robust and advanced reporting networks.”

Even without inflation-adjustment, the preliminary tornado count “for 2013 year to date is 934, which is 544 tornadoes below the 2005 – 2012 average of 1478 and 134 tornadoes below the 2012 low of 1068 tornadoes,” Watts comments.

One might argue that U.S. tornado data may not show a link to global climate change because the U.S. comprises only 6.6% of the world’s land mass. However, if such a link exists, it ought to be discernible in the U.S. tornado record. As Watts points out, the U.S. “experiences approximately 75% of all the world’s tornados.”

The latter fact prompted one commenter to write:

You mean to say, that with only 5% of the world’s population, the United States consumes 75% of the world’s tornadoes? This over consumption of the Earth’s resources by the US, and particularly its unsustainable middle class lifestyle, has got to stop.
 
sarc  [click to continue…]

Post image for Equality under Law and Energy Policy

Equality under law is a core principle of every free society. It means the law does not discriminate among persons based on irrelevant characteristics. It sets the ground rules for competition but does not seek to advantage one person or group at the expense of others.

Equality under law is not an arbitrary preference but the logical implication of a more fundamental, natural equality rooted in the unity of the human species. The Declaration of Independence, which proclaims the equality of all human beings in respect to certain unalienable rights, is the locus classicus of this philosophy. Thomas Jefferson concisely explained the natural basis for equality under law when he stated that, “the mass of mankind has not been born with saddles on their backs, nor a favored few booted and spurred, ready to ride them legitimately, by the grace of god.”

Societies that reject (or do not recognize) the Declaration philosophy include not only those based on explicitly anti-egalitarian ideologies (Hitler’s master race, the feudal hierarchy of noble and serf), but also those based on the false equality of Marx and Lenin, who asserted that the human race is fundamentally bifurcated into two unequal classes — bourgeois and proletariat. Unsurprisingly, in Marxist-Leninist regimes all power ends up in the hands of a corrupt self-selected elite (nomenklatura) posing as the ‘vanguard of the proletariat.’

I’ve been thinking about this lately, because ‘progressive,’ activist government continually seeks to rig energy markets to favor some industries (those deemed green) at the expense of others (those deemed dirty). Moreover, interest groups continually lobby for special privileges, usually based on some public-interest pretext (‘What’s good for General Motors is good for the country’).

In his treatise The Law, 19th century French economist Frédéric Bastiat, discusses how to tell when law is perverted into a system of legal plunder:

But how is this legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply. See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them, and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime.

Then abolish this law without delay, for it is not only an evil itself, but also it is a fertile source for further evils because it invites reprisals. If such a law — which may be an isolated case — is not abolished immediately, it will spread, multiply, and develop into a system.

The person who profits from this law will complain bitterly, defending his acquired rights. He will claim that the state is obligated to protect and encourage his particular industry; that this procedure enriches the state because the protected industry is thus able to spend more and to pay higher wages to the poor workingmen.

Do not listen to this sophistry by vested interests. The acceptance of these arguments will build legal plunder into a whole system. In fact, this has already occurred. The present-day delusion is an attempt to enrich everyone at the expense of everyone else; to make plunder universal under the pretense of organizing it.

Imagine if we had a government today that lived by Bastiat’s maxims! Bye-bye bridges to nowhere, the wind production tax credit, the ethanol mandate, green jobs programs, and Obamacare.

To Bastiat’s simple test for identifying legal plunder, I would add another — presumably with his approval were he alive today: The law aims to pick market winners and losers by imposing unequal burdens and/or conferring unequal benefits on different industries or firms.

The ethanol mandate clearly falls into the legal plunder category, and so does the campaign to restrict natural gas exports for the benefit of the chemical industry. I discuss those policies as equality-of-law-violating plunder schemes in recent comments on National Journal’s Energy Insiders blog. My comments (lightly edited) appear below. [click to continue…]

Post image for EPA Permitting of Greenhouse Gases: A Breathtaking Absence of Congressional Intent

This post updates the analysis I presented last week in EPA Permitting of Greenhouse Gases: What Does Legislative History Reveal about Congressional Intent?

Petitioners’ merit briefs were due on Monday this week in Utility Air Regulatory Group v. EPA, the first Supreme Court case to examine the legality of an EPA regulation addressing greenhouse gases. Amicus briefs on behalf of petitioners are due next week.

The narrow question before the Court is whether the EPA permissibly determined that its May 2010 greenhouse gas Tailpipe Rule automatically triggered Clean Air Act permitting requirements for major stationary sources of greenhouse gases. In other words, the Court is reviewing the agency’s Timing Rule.

According to the Timing Rule, anyone seeking to build or modify a major source of greenhouse gas emissions must first obtain a “prevention of significant deterioration” (PSD) preconstruction permit. An applicant must conduct a multi-step analysis to determine the proposed facility or modification’s “best available control technology” (BACT) requirements. PSD permitting and BACT determinations are components of the Clean Air Act’s New Source Review (NSR) program.

As detailed in my post last week, I found a BREATHTAKING ABSENCE OF CONGRESSIONAL INTENT for the regulatory path prescribed by the EPA’s Timing Rule:

  • During the 101st through the 111th Congress, senators and congressmen introduced 692 bills containing the term “greenhouse gas” and 55 bills containing the term “best available control technology.”
  • Of those, only the SAFE Climate Act, introduced in the 109th and 110th Congresses, appears to contemplate a broad application of NSR/BACT to greenhouse gases (the terms NSR and BACT don’t occur in the statute). And then only at the EPA’s discretion, not, as per the Timing Rule, by automatic operation of the statute.
  • More importantly, although the SAFE Climate Act garnered 155 co-sponsors in the 110th Congress, the bill never got beyond the introduction stage of the legislative process. No committee approved it, and the House did not vote on it.
  • The bill’s chief sponsor, Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), did not reintroduce the SAFE Climate Act in the 111th Congress. Instead, he co-sponsored the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA), the only cap-and-trade bill ever to pass in a chamber of Congress. ACESA specifically prohibited the application of NSR to stationary sources based on their greenhouse gas emissions.

In short, there is not a shred of evidence in the legislative history that Congress as a whole, the House or Senate separately, or any congressional committee ever intended for the EPA to broadly apply NSR/BACT provisions to greenhouse gases.

Just to make sure nothing fell through the cracks, I today did a search of all legislation introduced during the 101st through the 111th Congresses containing the term “prevention of significant deterioration” (PSD) — the specific type of NSR permit that is the focus of the Timing Rule.

Of 35 bills introduced containing the term, only one was a climate-related bill (S.1168 — the Clean Air/Climate Change Act of 2007). Significantly, it does not propose to apply PSD permitting to greenhouse gases.

The table below summarizes the results.

PSD Table [click to continue…]

Post image for What Happens to the U.S. Economy If ‘Progressives’ Kill Coal?

A new study by Heritage Foundation analysts Nicholas Loris, Kevin Dayaratma, and David Kreutzer clarifies the economically-devastating potential of the war on coal.

In effect, the study asks: What if anti-coal ‘progressives’ get everything they wish for?

Using the Heritage Foundation Energy Model, which is based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Model System (NEMS), the three researchers analyze the economic impacts of a regulatory agenda phasing-out coal electric generation between 2015 and 2038. They find that by the end of 2023:

  • Employment falls by nearly 600,000 jobs.
  • Manufacturing loses over 270,000 jobs.
  • Coal-mining jobs drop 30 percent.
  • A family of four’s annual income drops more than $1,200 per year, and its total income drops by nearly $24,400 over the entire period of analysis.
  • Aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) decreases by $2.23 trillion over the entire period of the analysis.

What accounts for those losses? First, phasing out coal generation will dramatically increase demand for natural gas, boosting gas prices by 28%. Gas is a key feedstock for several manufacturing industries:

Natural gas is not only a critical source of electricity generation; natural gas and liquids produced with natural gas provide a feedstock for fertilizers, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, waste treatment, food processing, fuel for industrial boilers, increasingly used as a transportation fuel, and much more.

The main reason, though, is simply that killing a major source of affordable electric power will increase business and household energy costs:

It will cost more to heat, cool, and light homes, and to cook meals. These higher energy prices will also have rippling effects throughout the economy. As energy prices increase, the cost of making products rises. Higher operating costs for businesses will be reflected in higher prices for consumers. Because everything Americans use and produce requires energy, consumers will take hit after hit. As prices rise, consumers buy less, and companies are forced to shed employees, close entirely, or move to other countries where the cost of doing business is lower. The result is fewer opportunities for American workers, lower incomes, less economic growth, and higher unemployment.

Two maps in the Heritage study should remove any doubt that the war on coal is an attack on a vital component of the U.S. economy and, thus, a danger to public health and welfare. [click to continue…]