William Yeatman

More Trouble for Emissions Trading Schemes; Canadian Government Hides Cost of Kyoto

by William Yeatman on October 1, 2002

in Kyoto Negotiations

More Trouble for Emissions Trading Schemes

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has released a report which heavily criticizes the open-market emissions-trading programs that are being run in three States: New Jersey, New Hampshire and Michigan. This follows on the heels of an announcement by New Jersey Governor James McGreevey (D) that New Jersey will discontinue its emissions trading program.

The report was conducted in response to a request by two environmental groups, Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility and the New Jersey Chapter of the Sierra Club. What it found was that there are serious problems with the programs and that they need to be fine tuned before the EPA will allow an expansion of state-specific, voluntary, open-market trading programs.

Open-market trading (OMT) programs are different than cap-and-trade programs in that they are voluntary, have no expressly defined cap, allow trading between various types and sources of pollutants, and allow credits to be generated through past emission reduction efforts to meet current requirements. Cap-and-trade programs, on the other hand, have a defined emissions cap for a specified group of participants that are required to reduce emissions.

The report evaluates the programs in New Jersey and Michigan because they are the only states with extensive programs. It finds that there are several factors that adversely affect the ability of the programs to reach emission reduction goals. “Foremost among these factors,” says the report, “were the lack of safeguards, use of data of uncertain quality, and limited regulatory agency oversight of trading activities. Many sources have opted not to participate, and problems in one state (New Jersey) have become so significant that it has announced its intention to terminate the program.”

Two of the most important missing safeguards, according to the report, are the lack of public comment on proposed trades, and an acceptance of shutdown credits in Michigan. In fact, 23 percent of Michigans total OMT credits and 80 percent of its volatile organic compound emissions credits were shutdown credits. This shouldnt be allowed, says to the report, because companies may be able receive credits by shutting down in one state and resuming operations in another.

The program also failed to use reliable emissions data. “Our reviews of 84 randomly selected trades in Michigan and New Jersey disclosed that no EPA- or State-approved quantification protocols were used to calculate credits,” bringing into question the validity of the credits. Moreover, the data used to measure emissions was of poor quality.

Finally, there was insufficient enforcement and oversight on the part of EPA, which led to questionable trades. For example, the EPA alleged that a New Jersey utility, PSEG, had violated clean air requirements when it failed to obtain permits for modifications on two power plants, which would have established lower compliance levels.

With lower compliance levels, PSEG would not have been able to claim as many emission reduction credits as it did. In a settlement with the EPA, PSEG agreed to retire 18,600 tons of emissions credits worth $16 million, which represented 90 percent of the tradable credits in New Jersey. Another New Jersey utility, Conectiv, used “cooler, off-season ozone credits to meet warmer, more polluted, ozone season requirements.”

EPA recommends that federal regulation be developed for OMT programs, that shutdown credits be disallowed, that states be required to use EPA- or state-approved quantification protocols, and that OMT programs use a “risk-based targeting approach for federal and state compliance assurance, enforcement and oversight of OMT trades.”

Canadian Government Hides Cost of Kyoto

In a presentation to two Cabinet committees on September 24, the Canadian government expunged figures showing the estimated costs of compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. Indeed, Cabinet ministers have been told by the Prime Ministers office to avoid references to a Kyoto implementation plan, according to the National Post (September 25, 2002).

The cost estimates were the result of a modeling exercise conducted by the government and agreed to by the Prime Ministers Office, the Privy Council Office, the Environment Department, and the Natural Resources Department. They show that compliance would result in 200,000 lost jobs and a 1.5 percent loss in GDP.

The provinces of Alberta and Ontario would experience the worst economic impacts, since each contributes about 27 percent to Canadas national greenhouse gas emissions. The cost of natural gas would also rise between 4 and 14 percent and electricity prices would rise by 2 percent by 2010. These estimates are based on greenhouse gas reductions of 170 megatons, about 70 megatons short of Canadas Kyoto target.

In a letter to the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, Prime Minister Jean Chrtien had promised that there would be an implementation plan and consultations before ratification. It now appears that Chrtien is reneging on that promise. The provincial energy and environment ministers are expecting to see a comprehensive plan to meet the Kyoto targets at an October 21 meeting in Halifax, but Chrtien has admitted that there isnt one.

“The development of the plan will take 12 years. Ten years. You know, it will not be in operation tomorrow,” Mr. Chrtien said. “There is a series of things that will have to be done and we will have to meet the commitment by 2012. There is a good chance that if we dont start, we will not be ready by 2012. So we have to start right now. We have a 10-year period to develop the appropriate plans to meet these international obligations that the Canadians want us to commit to. We will develop the plan. We will give the framework of the plan. But all the pieces of this plan will take 10 years to finalize.”

Lorne Taylor, Albertas environment minister isnt buying it. “Theyre either incompetent or theyre not telling Canadians the truth, because we dont have until 2012 to develop a plan,” he said. “We actually have to hit targets in 2012. Not develop a plan by 2012. I think the Prime Ministers comments just are indicative of the confusion thats reigning supreme in Ottawa right now.”

Canadas Environment Minister David Andersen sees no problem with ratifying Kyoto without an implementation plan. “Only on the second of September [when the Prime Minister announced in South Africa that Canada would ratify the treaty] did certain elements of industry take seriously the fact that ratification was a distinct possibility. They tended to think it could be avoided. Now, were having a much more constructive tone to the debate,” he said. Andersen went on to say that the government plans an advertising campaign to “indicate the costs are exaggerated and that the debate must be on a serious level.”

Arctic Sea Ice: the Chicken or the Egg?

by William Yeatman on October 1, 2002

in Science

Melting sea ice in the Arctic is claimed to be one of the major signals that man is dangerously warming the planet. Indeed, one of the more amusing episodes of the global warming chronicles was the discovery of open water at the North Pole, which the New York Times claimed had not been seen for 50 million years. It had to retract the story, of course, because open water at the North Pole in the summer is not unusual. It is becoming less and less clear, however, whether melting Arctic sea ice is a symptom of warming temperatures or the cause.

A study in the Journal of Climate (September 2002) finds that global warming is not the cause of melting sea ice, but that melting sea ice is causing the warming. Changes in sea ice extent, it turns out, are related to the well known phenomenon known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, which is a measure of atmospheric circulation in the Arctic. Much of the observed thinning in the Arctic is due to changing wind patterns that rearrange the sea ice. When the AO index is in its positive phase, sea ice thins and retreats; in its negative phase it thickens and advances. The AO is an entirely natural process for which we have measurements for the last 100 years. Its current values are about the same as they were 100 years ago.

The study concludes, “Intuitively, one might have expected the warming trends in SAT [surface air temperature] to cause the thinning of sea ice, but the results presented in this study imply inverse causality; that is, that the thinning ice has warmed SAT by increasing the heat flux from the ocean.” In other words, a change in the AO index thins the ice which exposes the warmer ocean water to the cold air and warms it. It turns out that melting Arctic sea ice is responsible for Arctic warming, not the reverse.

Announcement

The Cooler Heads Coalition will hold a screening of The Climate Conflict, on October 7, from 3:15 to 4:15 p.m., in Room 385 of the Senate Russell Office Building. The Climate Conflict is an award-winning Danish documentary about the global warming debate in general and about the role of solar variability in particular. Although it has won six awards in Europe and has been shown on major networks in most European countries, no American network or station has picked it up. Our special screening will be introduced by Dr. Paal Brekke of the European Space Agency, who is also interviewed in the film.

Scientists Still Baffled by Surface-Atmosphere Discrepancy;

by William Yeatman on September 17, 2002

in Science

Scientists Still Baffled by Surface- Atmosphere Discrepancy

A new study in the September 2002 issue of the Journal of Climate takes another look at the discrepancy in temperature trends between the surface, measured by ground-based thermometers, and the atmosphere (more specifically the troposphere), measured by satellite-borne instruments, and concludes that we dont know why there is a discrepancy.

The temperature differential between the surface and the atmosphere is known as the lapse rate. From 1964 to 1979 the lapse rate decreased, meaning that surface and atmospheric temperatures were converging. However, beginning in 1980 the lapse rate began to increase and has continued to do so until the present time. Much of the winter-to-winter lapse rate variability in the high latitudes is dynamically induced, according to the study, but most of the change in lapse rate is over the lower latitudes or tropics.

The researchers, Gabriele C. Hegerl of Duke University and John M. Wallace of the University of Washington, attempted to account for this change by comparing the pattern to El Nio southern oscillation and other factors, but found that, “Trends in these patterns can account for only a small fraction of the observed trend in lapse rate.”

The researchers then ran the data through a climate model, both a control run and a run with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, which did a decent job of simulating short-term, monthly changes in lapse rate, but failed to simulate decadal scale changes. The model shows a tighter long-term coupling between the surface and atmospheric temperatures than is observed in nature. As this study shows, our understanding of heat transfer between the surface and atmosphere is still incomplete, and until this problem is resolved there is little hope that climate models can tell us anything about what the climate may be like in 10, 50 or 100 years.

Etc.

  • The September 2002 issue of The Washington Monthly ran an article reminiscent of the “ozone hole over Kennebunkport” flap under Bush I about the possible effects of global warming on President George W. Bushs ranch in Crawford, Texas.

The article begins with an account of British Prime Minister Tony Blairs visit to the Bush ranch for a meeting with the “cowboy president.” President Bushs plans to take Blair on a tour of the ranch were ruined by severe thunderstorms and golf-ball-sized hail. The article fingers global warming as the culprit. “But that possibility apparently seemed as remote to Bush as the likelihood that the storm was a sign from God,” it said.

Theres a good reason why this twaddle may not have crossed President Bushs mind. It turns out that, according to data from the United States Historical Climatology Network, its getting cooler around Crawford. The nearest long-term temperature station to the Bush ranch is in Temple, Texas, 34 miles south of Crawford. It shows a cooling trend since 1890, and since 1920 the yearly average temperature has fallen by well over 2 degrees Celsius.

Announcements

The Cooler Heads Coalition will hold a congressional and media briefing by Professor Richard S. Lindzen of MIT on September 30 from noon to 1:30 PM in Room 345 of the Cannon House Office Building. Lunch will be provided. Reservations are required. Those wishing to attend should e-mail their name, affiliation, and phone number to mebell@cei.org or telephone Myron Ebell at (202) 331-1010, ext. 216. Dr. Lindzen will be speaking “On the meaning of global warming claims.”

New York Wind Farms a Bad Decision; Full Expensing of Capital Will Reduce Carbon Intensity

by William Yeatman on September 17, 2002

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics, Science, Small business

New York Wind Farms a Bad Decision

In August, New York Governor George Pataki announced a $17 million aid package to four private companies to develop wind farms in various parts of the state. But, according to Glenn Schleede, president of Energy Market & Policy Analysis, New Yorkers should be wary of the environmental claims of wind power.

The New York Energy Plan estimates that the eight wind farms, with a combined 250 wind turbines, would produce approximately 900,000 kilo-watt hours (kWh) of electricity per year. But this is a drop in the bucket compared to the states total electricity demand. For example, this amount equals 58/100 of 1 percent of the total electricity imported into New York in 2000. It is only 15 percent of the energy that will be produced from a single gas-fired combined cycle plant that is scheduled to come online in Athens, NY in 2003.

The wind power industry often claims that “electricity generated by the wind turbines will displace on a kWh for kWh basis electricity that would be generated by fossil-fuel generating units and any associated emissions.” But that simply is not true, says Schleede. “Such claims are generally exaggerated. For example, they do not take into account that any fossil-fueled generating unit that is kept available to back up the intermittent electricity from the wind farm will be giving off emissions while it is running at less than peak efficiency or in spinning reserve mode. Nor do they take into account the fact that other alternatives for reducing emissions are likely to be far more cost-effective.”

New Yorkers should also be aware that there is growing opposition to wind farms wherever they are proposed, in Europe, Australia and in nearly every state in the U.S., says Schleede. “Opposition is due to a variety of reasons including scenic and property value impairment, noise, bird kills, flicker effects of spinning blades after sunrise and before sunset, potential safety hazards from blade and ice throws, interference with telecommunications, and higher costs of electricity.”

Full Expensing of Capital Will Reduce Carbon Intensity

Several climate-related initiatives pose a serious threat to Americas economic future, according to Marlo Lewis, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. One such scheme is President Bushs proposal to expand the Department of Energys Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases program to include the awarding of transferable carbon credits for voluntary greenhouse gas reductions.

Currently, the DOE program is a simple voluntary reporting program with no regulatory significance. But, says Lewis, writing for Tech Central Station (September 10, 2002), the addition of the awarding of credits to companies that report greenhouse gas reductions will corrupt the “politics of U.S. energy policy” and “grow the greenhouse lobby.”

Under Bushs proposal, companies that begin to comply with Kyoto before it is ratified would be awarded credits that they could sell or use to offset future regulatory obligations. In the absence of a regulatory cap on carbon emissions, the credits are worthless. Only if Kyoto or a similar regulatory program were enacted would the credits yield dividends. “Credit-holders thus acquire cash incentives to support Kyoto, or lobby for its domestic equivalent,” says Lewis.

A credit scheme would be a zero-sum game where one companys gain is anothers loss. Every credit awarded in the voluntary early action period is one that wont be available during the mandatory period. Companies that dont or cant “volunteer” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions now will be penalized later under the mandatory cap, which means that the program isnt really voluntary.

Lewis argues that the Bush administration should stop legitimizing climate alarmism by playing games within the Kyoto framework. Instead, it should embrace non-regulatory, pro-growth policies that would also have the side benefit of reducing carbon intensity. Bush should lower tax barriers to investment by allowing companies to “deduct from current-year revenues, the full cost of capital investment,” says Lewis. Replacing the current system of capital depreciation with full expensing for all types of capital investment would eliminate barriers to economically efficient capital turnover.

Climate Models Off By 40 Degrees

by William Yeatman on September 3, 2002

in Science

A study in the August 28 issue of Geophysical Research Letters finds that there is a serious error in the global circulation models when it comes to predicting temperatures in the Earths polar regions. The study measured atmospheric temperatures, at the stratopause and mesopause regions (the atmospheric layers at about 30 and 50 miles altitude respectively), at the Earths poles. What the researchers found was that atmospheric temperatures at the South Pole are about 40-50 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than model predictions.

“Our results suggest that wintertime warming due to sinking air masses is not as strong as the models have assumed,” according to Chester Gardner, a professor of electrical and computer engineering and coauthor of the study. “But in all fairness, since no one had made these measurements before, modelers have been forced to estimate the values. And, in this case, their estimates were wrong.”

The researchers made temperature measurements from December 1999 to October 2001 using a laser radar system in combination with weather balloon measurements of the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Temperatures were recorded from the surface to an altitude of 70 miles.

It was discovered that at about 30 miles altitude it was much colder than model predictions, said Gardner. “The greatest difference occurred in July, when the measured stratopause temperature was about 0 degrees Fahrenheit, compared to about 40 degrees Fahrenheit predicted by the models.”

Gardner explains the significance of this finding: “After the autumnal equinox in March, radiative processes begin cooling the polar atmosphere. During the long polar night, the atmosphere above Antarctica receives little sunlight and is sealed off by a vortex of winds that spins counterclockwise. This stable polar vortex prevents the transport of warmer air from lower latitudes into the pole, and leads to extreme cooling of the lower stratosphere.”

The only source of heat during the winter comes from down-welling air masses, which warms the air by compressing it. “Current global circulation models apparently overpredict the amount of down-welling, because they show warmer temperatures than we observed,” said Gardner.

When the researchers plugged their results into the climate model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, the difference was significant. “With the reduced down-welling, the predicted mesopause temperature near 60 miles altitude decreased from about minus 120 degrees Fahrenheit to about minus 140 degrees Fahrenheit, in better agreement with our measurements for mid-winter conditions,” Gardner said. “In the stratopause region, the predicted temperature decreased from about 35 degrees Fahrenheit to about 12 degrees Fahrenheit, also in better agreement with our measurements.”

Etc.

  • The Bush Administrations Climate Action Report 2002 continues to undermine its position on global warming. In a major speech in Mozambique on September 1 just before his appearance at the World Summit, British Prime Minister Tony Blair stated, “They [the Bush Administration] accept the science, but they believe the targets are unachievable without unacceptable economic consequences.”

Ford Motor Dumps Electric Vehicle

by William Yeatman on September 3, 2002

in Blog

Ford Motor Co.s Th!nk electric car division is going the way of the Edsel. The company cites poor consumer demand and lack of government support for its decision to pull the plug.

Ford bought the Norway-based Th!nk in 1999 for $23 million and invested an additional $100 million to develop electric vehicle battery technology. “The bottom line is we dont believe that this is the future of environmental transport for the mass markets,” said Ford spokesman Tim Holmes. Instead, Ford will focus on developing fuel cell and hybrid gasoline-electric cars.

Fords thinking has undergone a rapid evolution recently, apparently due to mounting financial losses. Chairman William Clay Ford, Jr., a long-time environmentalist, began his tenure with several high profile environmental statements and commitments. For example, he pledged that Ford would increase the mileage of its SUVs by 25 percent in five years.

But economic realities now have him singing a different tune. He has begun appearing in Ford television commercials touting the companys powerful trucks, oohing and aahing over the Mustang, old and new, and claiming that he has gasoline in his veins.

Shortly after Governor Gray Davis signed into law a bill that would regulate greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, Mr. Ford appeared conciliatory, saying that he wanted to “lower the temperature” between the automobile industry and California regulators and that the states “love affair with the auto industry has grown stale.” But the company is now distancing itself from those statements. Ford spokeswoman Francine Romine said that the company still opposes the California emissions bill and that it is still considering participation in an Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers lawsuit against it (Greenwire, August 12, 2002).

The “Th!nk City” vehicle is a two-seater, with a plastic body, has a range of 53 miles and takes six hours to recharge. Moreover, it costs much more than similarly-sized vehicles. “Battery electric vehicles are not there yet technologically,” according to Jim Kliesch, a research associate with the nonprofit the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. “Nobody has found a way to build a battery that is cheap, can quickly recharge and allows you to drive long distances” (Reuters, August 30, 2002).

Greens Want Funds to Offset Summit Greenhouse Emissions

by William Yeatman on August 20, 2002

in Politics

Several observers have noted the hypocrisy of tens of thousands of politicians, bureaucrats, and environmental activists traveling from all parts of the globe to the World Summit on Sustainable Development, where they will huff and puff about the evils of emitting carbon dioxide. In response, summiteers have come up with a plan to offset the carbon emissions that will result from the conference.

Conference organizers claim that the 290,000 tons (by some estimates) of carbon dioxide that will be produced as a result of the conference can be offset through some sort of compensation fund. Mary Metcalfe, of the Department for Agriculture, Conservation, Environment and Land Affairs of South Africas Gauteng Province, announced, “We are measuring the carbon dioxide emissions of the summit. These emissions will be offset through investments in carbon reducing sustainable projects across South Africa. I urge all delegates to take responsibility for their own CO2 emissions. It is one small step towards a sustainable climate and will be an important contribution to innovative alternate energy projects in South Africa.”

According to Metcalfe, “Companies, individuals, and governments can sponsor this offset by making donations to a dedicated trust fund and, in so doing on this world stage, make one of the most important commitments in modern history to a sustainable future. There is a web site where delegates can calculate how much CO2 their trip will generate and offset it. Ten dollars will offset one metric tonne of CO2 emitted by the summit” (Electricity Daily, August 20, 2002). The summit begins in Johannesburg on August 26 and ends on September 4.

New York Times Silly Season: Killer Heat Waves!; Flooding Not Caused by Warming

by William Yeatman on August 20, 2002

in Science

New York Times Silly Season: Killer Heat Waves!

In its August 13 issue, the New York Times has continued its tradition of peddling bogus global warming scare stories during the late summer silly season. This time the threat isnt anything dramatic like the North Pole melting. “Heat waves come on subtly, raising summer temperatures just a little higher than normal and then receding,” opined the Times. “But they kill more people in the United States than all other natural disasters combined.”

Thats a striking, but erroneous statement. The deadliest killer is cold weather, not hot weather, as a number of studies have shown. For example, a study conducted in Europe several years ago found that, “Mean annual heat related mortalities were 304 in North Finland, 445 in Athens, and 40 in London. Cold related mortalities were 2457, 2533, and 3129 respectively.” The researchers argue that, “Our data suggest that any increases in mortality due to increased temperatures would be outweighed by much larger short term declines in cold related mortalities” (British Medical Journal, September 16, 2000).

The Times couldnt resist making the connection to global warming, but if climate models are correct, then global warming will not lead to increases in heat-related deaths, since the majority of the warming predicted would occur during the winter at night in high latitudes. This would actually save lives by lessening the severity of the coldest weather.

The Times, whose fact checkers (if they still have any) are not up to the standard of the National Enquirers, also failed to mention that, even though heat waves are indeed deadly catastrophes, the deaths that result are also the most easily preventable. Those who succumb to heat waves have two things in common: they are either elderly or in poor health and are too poor to afford air conditioning. But if the pro-Kyoto Times gets its way, energy prices will soar and even fewer people will have access to the one thing they need to beat the heat.

Flooding Not Caused by Warming

European leaders, like the big re-insurance companies, have been quick to link the catastrophic flooding this month in central Europe to global warming. And some have then used that to blame the United States. According to an August 15 Reuters story, German Environment Minister “Juergen Trittin, a Green, said higher global temperatures in recent decades had led to rising sea levels and increased rainfall and were at least partially to blame for a bout of unpredictable weather seen in recent years.”

“Mankind shares a real co-responsibility,” Trittin told a news conference. “It is unacceptable for American citizens to pump twice as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as Europeans,” he said earlier in an ARD television interview.

However, according to Tim Osborn, a climatologist at the University of East Anglia, global warming is an unlikely culprit in this case. “If this had happened in winter, then it might be reasonable to talk about global warming,” he said. “However, the models suggest that rainfall in summer is likely to remain the same, or perhaps even fall, if climate change continues” (www.bbc.co.uk, August 13, 2002).

What is really going on, says the BBC, is that the jet stream, which determines the rate of progress of weather systems, is in an unusual position and is pushing the weather systems out of their normal paths. “Instead of moving eastwards across the north Atlantic, picking up relatively little water because of the low temperatures at those latitudes, the system crossed into Europe at a lower point, carrying far more moisture as a result.”

Geoff Jenkins from the UKs Met Office says it is wrong to “jump to conclusions” about global warming in this case. “We have to be careful about ascribing all these changes to global warming, because the Earth is a very variable system already. We do get these events from year to year they are unusual, but not unprecedented. The weather at any particular point at any particular time is determined in our latitudes by the jet stream, and it just happens that at the moment the jet stream is in a very unusual position.”

Etc.

  • Greenpeace, the radical environmental pressure group, gained major media coverage around the world for before and after photos of an Arctic glacier that purport to show dramatic shrinking due to global warming. The photos are of a glacier on Svalbard, a 63,000-square kilometer island on the edge of the Arctic Circle. The 2002 photo shows that the glacier has receded a long way since a 1918 photo.

The two photos were published across the world with the statement, “The blame can be put squarely on human activity. Our addiction to fossil fuels releases millions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and this is what is causing temperatures to rise and our future to melt before our eyes.”

But according to Professor Ole Humlum, a leading glaciologist in Svalbard, “That glacier had already disappeared in the early 1920s as a result of a perfectly natural rise in temperature that had nothing to do with man-made global warming.” The photos are misleading, he said. “They should have asked the specialist on Svalbard first” (Daily Telegraph, August 17, 2002).

  • Britains Environment Minister Michael Meacher, who likes to berate the U.S. for its backward stance on global warming, made a fool of himself in the August 9 issue of the London Sunday Times. Heres an excerpt from the interview:

Meacher:  “I mean floods in Britain is one we are having to explain, rising sea levels, but in America quite serious things are happening, certainly stronger hurricanes on the east coast which are to do with, what is the name of that hurricane that comes every 2-3 years?”

Interviewer: “They call them different names.”

Meacher: “No, no, there is a name which is the Spanish word for a young child, what is it called?”

Interviewer: El Nio.”

Meacher: “The El Nio is becoming more frequent and more violent.”

El Nio, of course, is not a hurricane, nor is it becoming more frequent or more violent. The last one began in 1997, five years before the current El Nio, which began this year. Thats the average interval between El Nios. Moreover, the current El Nio is significantly less powerful than the one in 1997. Nor are hurricanes becoming more frequent or more intense.

German Utility Criticizes EU Emissions Plan; Insurance Companies Blame Floods on Global Warming

by William Yeatman on August 20, 2002

in Blog

German Utility Criticizes EU Emissions Plan

One of Germanys biggest utility groups has threatened to cancel the construction of a new power plant that would create 4,000 new jobs in Germany unless significant changes are made to the European Commissions emissions trading plan, in particular the rules governing trade in carbon dioxide certificates.

The utility group, RWE, is about to commission a new lignite power plant that would emit 2.9 million fewer metric tons of carbon dioxide per year than the plant it would replace. It also plans on building a second plant in 2008. But Dietmar Kuhnt, chairman of RWE, said that the second plant would not go ahead “if its profitability is jeopardized by unreasonably stringent sanctions of carbon dioxide penalties. This could be the case if the EU implements the plans it has for carbon dioxide certificate trading without making the adjustments required by several constituencies” (The Guardian, August 13, 2002).

Insurance Companies Blame Floods on Global Warming

Insurance companies facing massive claims due to the devastating floods in Europe are blaming global warming. Swiss Re, a major re-insurance company that is likely to be burdened with the lions share of the costs, has stated unequivocally that global warming is the reason for the floods.

“The average global temperature has risen, which has pushed up average humidity. This in turn leads to flooding,” said Pamela Heck, a climate risk expert at the Zurich-based company. Scientists disagree with Hecks assessment of the situation (see below), but that hasnt stopped the company from fanning the global warming flames. It seems that Swiss Re is looking for somebody to sue (Xinhua News Agency, August 13, 2002).

State AGs Bash Bush with Climate Action Report; Petitions Filed with Federal Agencies Based on Climate Action Report; Davis Sign

by William Yeatman on July 23, 2002

in Politics

State AGs Bash Bush with Climate Action Report

Attorneys General from eleven States sent a letter to President George W. Bush on July 17 calling on him to propose mandatory reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. They based their case on the administrations Climate Action Report 2002, which was sent to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in May.

The letter details a number of possible impacts of global warming for which there is little or no scientific evidence, but which are mentioned in Climate Action Report 2002. The chapter in that report on the impacts of climate change was based on the scientifically-discredited National Assessment, which was prepared by the Clinton Administration but later disavowed by the Bush Administration.

The Attorneys General note that several States have already passed legislation to regulate carbon dioxide emissions, but add that “state-by-state action is not our preferred option.” Instead, they favor a federal cap-and-trade program. The letter also states that they are considering litigation to force federal action. Attorneys General from California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Maine, Alaska, and Vermont signed the letter.

Petitions Filed with Federal Agencies Based on Climate Action Report

The Bluewater Network, the environmental pressure group which wrote the bill passed by the California legislature to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from new vehicles, has filed petitions with at least four federal agencies demanding that they begin to prepare for the impacts of climate change predicted by the administrations Climate Action Report 2002. Petitions dated June 27 were filed with the National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Now that serious adverse impacts of global warming have been acknowledged officially by the administration, the Bluewater Network argues that these agencies are required by law to take these impacts into account in their resource protection policies and planning.

The petition to the Forest Service, for example, asks the service to, “Initiate a no tree-cut policy for all national forests, to sequester carbon, retain ground and forest moisture, and protect wildlife and ecosystems that are dependent on these resources.” The Network is apparently unaware that a nearly-no-cut policy has been in effect since the early 1990s, which has led to catastrophic fires over tens of millions of acres in 2000 and 2002.

It should be mentioned that the Bluewater Network is a project of the Earth Island Institute. Gar Smith, editor of the Earth Island Institutes Journal, published a long commentary on September 13, 2001, in which he explained that the real reasons for the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were “World Trade and U.S. Militarism.”

He also claimed that, “If we were to redirect our economy to operate on clean renewable energy…we would not only be on the path to mitigating climate change, we would also be on the path to eliminating one of the major causes of terrorism.”

Davis Signs CO2 Bill

As anticipated, California Governor Gray Davis signed “ground breaking legislation” on July 22 to cut carbon dioxide emissions. Davis wrote in and op-ed, “The federal government and Congress, by failing to ratify the Kyoto treaty on global warming, have missed their opportunity to do the right thing. So it is left to California, the nations most populous state and the worlds fifth largest economy, to take the lead” (Washington Post, July 22, 2002).

The law will require the California Air Resources Board to design policies to “achieve a maximum feasible reduction of greenhouse gases” from cars and trucks by 2005. Davis noted that the “vigorous lobbying campaign by automakers was successful in Congress and nearly stalled Californias carbon emission law, but common sense prevailed.”

Eron Shosteck, a spokesman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, told the Washington Post (July 22, 2002) that the law will directly harm consumers. “You cant make one car for California and another car for Washington, D.C.,” he said. “California motorists are going to be extremely angry when they find they are going to lose access to SUVs, trucks and minivans.” Shosteck also noted that, “there are already 50 models that get more than 30 miles per gallon,” and “consumers dont want them. High mileage cars sit on dealer lots and dont sell.”

New York Assemblyman Thomas DiNapoli (D) immediately announced that he plans to introduce legislation that would direct New York to adopt Californias standards. “Global warming and greenhouse gases pose serious health and economic risks,” DiNapoli said. “By acting now, we are acting responsibility to limit the pollutants that directly contribute to global warming and the degradation of air quality” (Detroit News, July 23, 2002).

Congress Looks at Kyoto and National Assessment

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and Foreign Relations Committee held a joint hearing on the Kyoto Protocol and other international environmental treaties on July 24. Christopher C. Horner, counsel to the Cooler Heads Coaliton and senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, testified along with, John Turner, assistant secretary of State, James Connaughton, chairman of Council on Environmental Quality, Maurice Strong, chairman of Canadas Earth Council Institute, and John Dernbach of the Widener University School of Law. Their written testimony is available at http://epw.senate.gov.

On July 25, the House Energy and Commerce Committees Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations will hold a hearing on scientific shortcomings of the National Assessment on the impacts of climate change. Testimony will be available at http://energycommerce.house.gov.

CO2 Dumping: Are They Joking?

Environmental pressure groups are succeeding in their efforts to stop scientific experiments with long-term deep-ocean sequestration of carbon dioxide. On July 2, an international consortium gave up on its application to 5,000 gallons of liquefied CO2 into ocean 3,000 feet below the surface off the island of Kauai in Hawaii. The purpose was to determine its dispersal and effects on ocean chemistry.

Jeff Mikulina, director of the Hawaii chapter of the Sierra Club, told the San Francisco Chronicle (July 2, 2002), “We are encouraged that carbon dioxide dumping did not find a warm reception among Hawaii residents. This experiment was hatched by the fossil fuel industry to allow them to continue their polluting ways.”

And Greenpeace has objected to a similar experiment proposed by the Norwegian Institute for Water Research, claiming that CO2 would fall under an international treaty prohibiting dumping of industrial waste (Greenwire, July 3, 2002). According to a Greenpeace spokesman, “The sea is not a dumping ground. Its illegal to dump nuclear or toxic waste at sea, and its illegal to dump CO2 the fossil fuel industrys waste.”

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