William Yeatman

Discrepancy in Temperature Trends Explained; New York Times Halfway Corrects Alaska Story; Australias CSIRO Plays Games with Sea

by William Yeatman on July 23, 2002

in Science

Discrepancy in Temperature Trends Explained

A new study appearing in Geophysical Research Letters (June 26, 2002) by Richard Lindzen and Constantine Giannitsis at MIT proposes an explanation for the discrepancy between surface and satellite temperature data. It also argues for lower climate sensitivity than is generally assumed.

Scientists have been puzzling over the difference in temperature trends between the surface layer of the atmosphere up to about 5,000 feet and the layer above that known as the troposphere. Since 1979, when scientists began using satellites to take the temperature of the troposphere, it appears that even while the surface has apparently warmed, tropospheric temperatures have remained steady. This is puzzling because greenhouse theory says that the troposphere should warm first, followed by the surface layer.

This scientific controversy even merited special attention from the National Research Council, which assembled a panel to assess the situation. It concluded that both the surface data and the satellite data are correct, but only speculated about the possible causes.

According to the study, “The surface data suggests a warming of about 0.25 degrees C, while the satellite data shows no significant increase.” Because the satellite data began in 1979, however, it has been noted that it is too short to “infer trends from any of the series since the trends estimated depend greatly on the subintervals chosen.” Fortunately, the close agreement between the satellite and weather balloon data, which also measures tropospheric temperatures, allows for a longer time period to be considered.

Looking at the balloon data the study notes that there was a pronounced jump in the atmospheric temperature of about 0.25 degrees C in 1976. The surface followed suit but at a slower pace, taking about ten years to catch up. The delay in the surface data is probably due to the heat capacity of the oceans, which is related to overall climate sensitivity. The delayed response also accounts for the discrepancy between the surface-based temperature data and that taken from satellites. Since the satellite data began in 1979 it missed the jump in 1976, which was documented in the slower surface warming.

More importantly, the rate at which the surface temperature caught up with the tropospheric temperature can be used to calculate climate sensitivity. The study finds that the surface temperature will rise about one degree C for a doubling of carbon dioxide levels. This is significantly lower than predictions made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and provides empirical support to climate skeptics who argue that climate sensitivity has been significantly overstated.

The study concludes, “The longer series suggests that the increase in tropospheric temperature occurred rather abruptly around 1976, three years before microwave observations began. The suddenness of the tropospheric temperature change seems distinctly unlike what one expects from greenhouse warming, while the relative rapidity with which the surface temperature caught up with the troposphere, less than about 10 years, suggests low climate sensitivity for a wide range of choices for thermocline diffusion.”

New York Times Halfway Corrects Alaska Story

On June 16, the New York Times ran a story on the front page that claimed that average temperatures in Alaska had risen 7 degrees over the last thirty years. The figure was later repeated in a June 24 Times column written by Bob Herbert.

The article was criticized by scientists who keep track of Alaskas temperatures, prompting the paper to correct the story on July 11. The Times wrote, “A front-page article on June 16 about climate change in Alaska misstated the rise in temperatures there in the last 30 years According to an assessment by the University of Alaskas Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research, the annual mean temperature has risen 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit over 30 years, not 7 degrees.”

But according to the Alaska Climate Research Center, this figure is still too high. Using data from temperature stations in Barrow, Fairbanks, Anchorage and Nome, which represent a cross section of Alaska from north to south, the researchers found that, “the value of 5.4 degrees F too great by a factor of two for the 1971 to 2000 period, the last 30 years.” These stations were chosen because they are professionally maintained and yield high quality, long term data.

Australias CSIRO Plays Games with Sea-Level Numbers

The Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organization (CSIR) in Australia has published a brochure on sea-level rise in support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The brochure does make some good points, but it also presents a phony picture on sea level changes in Australia.

It notes, for instance, “No acceleration [in sea-level rise] has been detected during the 20th Century.” It also points out that, “If greenhouse gases are stabilized today, sea-level rise will continue for hundreds of years.”

When it comes to describing sea-level change in Australia, however, CSIRO only presents a small amount of the available data, which gives an erroneous picture of the true changes. The brochure states, “In Australia the rise in sea-level relative to the land (June 2001) at Fremantle is 1.38 mm/year with more than 90 years of data, and at Sydney 0.86 mm/year from 82 years of data. (Corrected for land motion, the rate of sea-level rise at these two locations is estimated to be about 1.6 to 1.2 mm/year respectively.)”

John Daly, who runs the Still Waiting for Greenhouse (www.john-daly.com) website, has pointed out that there are 23 long term tide gauges in Australia, not just two. Using all of the data, the National Tidal Facility of Australia has determined that there has been a sea-level rise of only 0.3 mm/year. Moreover, the two tide gauges cited by CSIRO are outliers due to land subsidence caused by ground water withdrawal.

CSIRO may have also erred in its calculation of land motion at the Fremantle site, says Daly. According to data from Perth, which is 20 miles away, the land has been subsiding at a rate of 2.08 mm/year since 1996. If that rate of land subsidence has been going on for some time, that would mean that there has actually been a lowering of sea-level at Fremantle of about -0.7 mm/year. Further support for this can be found by examining tide gauges on either side of Fremantle, Bunbury to the north and Geraldton to the south. These show a sea-level change of +0.4 mm/year and -0.95 mm/year, respectively.

In a presentation to the Cooler Heads Coalition in May, Daly noted the importance of Australia in determining rates of sea-level change since it is fronted by three oceans. The data from Australia suggest that there is little to no sea-level change. The CSIRO brochure is available at www.marine.csiro.au.

Etc.

Thursday, July 25, is the fifth anniversary of Senate passage of the Byrd-Hagel Resolution by a 95 to 0 vote. Exercising its constitutional role of advising the president on international treaties, the Senate warned then-President Clinton not to negotiate a protocol to the U. N. Framework Convention on Climate Change that would significantly harm the U. S. economy and that did not include significant participation by developing nations. The U. S. negotiating team took this position to Kyoto in late November 1997, but then-Vice President Al Gore flew to Kyoto in early December and successfully demanded that these two conditions be abandoned. Negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol were concluded on December 11, 1997.

U. S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Declined in 2001; Momentum Building for Air Fuel Tax; UK “Green” Energy Prices Set to Rise

by William Yeatman on July 9, 2002

in Blog

U. S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Declined in 2001

The Department of Energys Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on July 1 that U.S. carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 1.1 percent in 2001. The decrease from 1,558 million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCe) in 2000 to 1,540 MMTCe in 2001 was the first since 1991, when emissions dropped 1.2 percent. EIA attributes the decline primarily to the economic recession and to warmer winter weather, which lowered demand for heating fuel.

Not all sectors showed a decline, however. Residential sector emissions grew by 1.8%. EIA estimates that energy-related CO2 emissions have increased on average 1.2% per year since 1990.

Momentum Building for Air Fuel Tax

Margaret Beckett, a junior minister in the United Kingdoms environment ministry, has called for an international tax on aviation fuel in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. And U. K. Environment Minister Michael Meacher told the Times of London (June 20) that opposition from the United States was the only obstacle to agreeing on such a tax. Meacher said, “The evidence that taxes or charges work is pretty clear. The ideal way to deal with this is to get agreement with all the Western countries in the International Civil Aviation Organisation. But that has proved difficult because the Americans are not prepared to reach agreement.”

European environmental groups are claiming that aviation fuel taxes are needed because airline fares are too low. A June 27 story in the Moscow Times quoted Nic Ferriday of the Aviation Environment Federation: “Some air fares have fallen so low, there may be some artificial demand being created. People are flying more and more. But how much of this is really necessary?”

UK “Green” Energy Prices Set to Rise

The price of renewable power in the United Kingdom is likely to rise steeply over the next five years because there wont be enough plants to meet the governments strict renewable energy targets, according to new industry research.

The proportion of power produced from renewable energy sources that suppliers sell must equal ten percent by 2010 under the governments new rule. To verify that they have met the obligation, suppliers receive renewable obligation certificates (ROCs) for each unit of renewable electricity they buy, which then must be submitted to the governments Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (OFGEM) at the end of the year. Plants that do not meet the target can purchase ROCs from plants willing to sell them. If the number of available ROCs is insufficient, then plants may pay a buyout price to OFGEM of 3 pence/KWh, which will then be awarded to those plants that meet their obligation.

According to new research by Platts and the Renewable Energy Association, “There is a strong chance that not enough new renewable energy projects are being planned for the Government to meet its 2010 target. This means that the price of ROCs could rise steeply over the next few years because demand for green power will not be met by supply.”

Electricity suppliers could be faced with having to pay up to $92 per MWh for ROCs by 2006-07, which is twice as much as the government has forecast, according to Dominic Maclaine, editor of Platts Power UK newsletter. Even under the most optimistic scenario, “where all green projects with planning permission are built and start on time, the value of certificates is estimated to be still worth around 40 MWh ($62) by 2006-07,” said Maclaine.

More CO2 Helps Plants, Not Bugs; Climate Models Fail to Reproduce Natural Temperature Fluctuations;

by William Yeatman on July 9, 2002

in Science

More CO2 Helps Plants, Not Bugs

Two studies appearing in the July issue of Global Change Biology have concluded that increasing CO2 levels will have negative effects on insects, but positive effects for plants. One report by Peter Stiling and colleagues found that, “More herbivores die of host plant-induced death in elevated CO2 than in ambient CO2” and these plant-eating insects are more likely to be attacked because they have to feed for longer periods of time to get the nutrients needed.

A second study by David Stacey and Mark Fellowes concluded that there is now “empirical evidence that changes in host plant quality by increased levels of CO2 can alter the outcome of interspecific competition among insect herbivores.” As Robert Balling of Arizona State University points out, both studies show that plants would benefit from higher CO2 levels. Balling states, “These two articles add to the evidence that elevated CO2 will benefit plants without giving herbivores any competition advantage over the plant.”

Climate Models Fail to Reproduce Natural Temperature Fluctuations

Climate models that serve as the basis for global warming predictions fail to reproduce correctly the fluctuations in atmospheric temperatures over time scales of months and years, according to new research appearing in the July 8 issue of Physical Review Letters.

The study explains that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic dynamics are solved in the models using highly sophisticated numerical solutions, but that there are also “subgrid-scale processes” that are too small to be modeled. These are handled by “parameterization schemes,” which amounts to little more than arbitrarily assigning a value to the particular process being considered. Some of these subgrid-scales includes, surprisingly enough, the roles of various greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide and the effect of aerosols.

In earlier research, the authors discovered a universal mathematical relationship, known as a scaling law, which describes the correlations between temperature fluctuations. What they found was that temperature variations from their average values exhibit persistence that decays at a well-defined rate. “The range of this persistence law exceeds ten years, and there is no evidence for a breakdown of the law at even larger timescales,” according to the study.

Using this scaling law, the researchers tested seven general circulation models, including the U.S.-based model at the National Climate for Atmospheric Research, against historical atmospheric temperature data from six representative sites. What they found was that the models, “fail to reproduce the universal scaling behavior observed in the real temperature records.”

The researchers explain that, “It is possible that the lack of long-term persistence is due to the fact that certain forcings such as volcanic eruptions or solar fluctuations have not been incorporated in the models.” But they cannot “rule out that systematic model deficiencies (such as the use of equivalent CO2 forcing to account for all other greenhouse gases or inaccurate spatial and temporal distributions of sulfate aerosols) prevent the [climate models] from correctly simulating the natural variability of the atmosphere.”

They conclude, “Since the models underestimate the long-range persistence of the atmosphere and overestimate the trends, our analysis suggests that the anticipated global warming is also overestimated by the models.”

More National Assessment Shenanigans

The National Assessment (NACC), a Clinton administration report on the possible impacts of climate change that has resurfaced in the Bush administration, has come under repeated and heavy criticism due to its sloppy research, absurd computer modeling, and political bias. Now it appears that the NACC involves scientific fraud as well. According to Tech Central Station at (www.techcentralstation.com, June 28, 2002), the U. S. Global Change Research Program altered the color scheme of the graphics used in the assessment to hide large discrepancies between the two models one from the Canadian Climate Centre and the other from the UK-based Hadley Centre that were used to make 100-year forecasts.

When the results from the two models were completed, they showed very different trends for future warming. Typically, when modelers show their results graphically, they use colors on a map to show temperature variations. The color scale goes from dark blue to lighter blues, which represent cooling, to green, yellow, orange and red to show progressively warmer temperatures. Dark blue sections represent about a 5 degree cooling, whereas red represents about a 15 degree warming.

Putting the two model results side by side, one could see that there were huge discrepancies between them. Several of the technical reviewers commented that the differences between the models cast doubt on the quality of the predictions. To “fix” the problem, the USGCRP changed the color scheme so that the scale used was mostly red and orange with a little blue at the bottom. Indeed, the orange extended all the way into the cooling part of the scale. The result was to eliminate blues, greens and yellows from the maps, which became nearly all orange or red, thereby obscuring the differences between the model results. The before and after pictures are available at the Tech Central Station website. A more detailed discussion of the changes can be found at www.john-daly.com.

Etc.

At a press conference held by Environmental Media Services in Washington on July 2, it was claimed that U. S. businesses could be harmed by the Bush Administrations decision to reject the Kyoto Protocol. John Palmisano, whose company Evolution Markets advises corporations on how to trade and reduce emissions, asserted that even if global warming is not true, business will benefit through emissions trading becausewell, because they will have the ability to track emissions. Palmisano was previously a leading promoter of emissions trading at Enron Corporation.

Joseph Romm, of the Center for Energy and Climate Solutions and a former Assistant Secretary of Energy in the Clinton Administration, said: “There is no type of business in this country that cannot make a profit through reducing carbon emissions.” Romm claimed that consumers prefer to buy products from “cool companies”, a sentiment echoed by Michael Marvin of the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. Marvin claimed that both consumers and shareholders want emissions reductions.

Environmental Media Services passed out copies of a recent report by the Conference Board titled, “Global Climate Change: Fact or Fiction? It Doesnt Matterthe Issue is Here to Stay.” For those interested in basing public policy or investment decisions on fantasy, the report may be found at http://www.conference-board.org/ea_reports/EA_23.pdf.

Announcement

The Cato Institute is sponsoring a lunchtime briefing on Global Warming: Rational Science, Rational Policy on July 19 in Room B-338 of the Rayburn House Office Building. The speakers will be Patrick Michaels of the University of Virginia and Cato and Jerry Taylor of Cato. Registration, which is required, may be accomplished by calling Julie Cullifer at (202) 789-5229 or online at www.cato.org/events.

California CO2 Bill Passes; Energy Bill Conference Begins, Administration Weighs In; Senate Committee Votes for CO2 Limits

by William Yeatman on July 9, 2002

in Politics

California CO2 Bill Passes

The California legislature passed a bill on July 1 designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from new vehicles. Governor Gray Davis must sign or veto the bill within 30 days. Davis said, “I believe this bill strikes the appropriate balance, and that’s why I’m strongly inclined to sign it” (Sacramento Bee, July 4, 2002).

The legislation had been stymied for several weeks by intense opposition generated by the auto industry and unions through a major advertising campaign and direct lobbying. Supporters changed the bill number from AB 1058 to AB 1493 without notice, made a few changes to address criticisms, then rushed the bill through the Senate on Saturday, June 29. On Monday, July 1, the Assembly passed it on a 41-30 vote. Assembly rules require a minimum of 41 votes (out of 80) to pass legislation.

If enacted into law, AB 1493 would require the California Air Resources Board to design policies to “achieve the maximum feasible reduction of greenhouse gases” from cars and trucks by 2005. The new regulations would first apply to the 2009 vehicle model year. AB 1493, unlike AB 1058, prohibits new taxes and would allow legislative review before any new regulations went into effect.

Assemblyman Dennis Mountjoy (R-Arcadia) spoke of the “hypocrisy” of Democrats who supported the measure while listing the cars they drive, Chevy Suburbans and Jeep Cherokees among them (Los Angeles Times, July 2, 2002). Assemblyman Dennis Hollingsworth (R-Murieta), told the New York Times (July 2): “This will cost lives. The reason it will cost lives is that it will price people out of the market. So they will keep their older cars, which do not have the safety features of newer cars.”

Hearings Will Review Administration Climate Policies

The House Science Committee is holding a hearing on July 10 to review President Bushs climate change policies. Witnesses scheduled to testify are: John Marburger, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; Jim Mahoney, Assistant Secretary of Commerce in charge of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and Robert Card, Undersecretary of Energy.

On July 11, the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing on the Bush Administrations Climate Action Report 2002. Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.), who will chair the hearing, and Ranking Republican John McCain (R-Az.) have both used the administrations report to the U. N. to attack the administration for not doing enough to stop global warming.

Marburger and Mahoney are also scheduled to testify at the Senate hearing, plus Glenn Hubbard, Chairman of the Presidents Council of Economic Advisers, and James Connaughton, Chairman of the Presidents Council on Environmental Quality.

In related news, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and three other members of the Bush Cabinet sent a letter on July 8 to the president with their recommendations on how to “improve and expand” the voluntary registry of greenhouse gas emissions and reductions managed by the Department of Energy and to create a voluntary transferable credit system for reductions.

President Bush had directed them in his February 14 speech on climate policy to propose improvements. The letter promises new guidelines for the registry by January 2004. The letter may be downloaded at http://www.energy.gov/HQPress/releases02/julpr/GreenhouseGasRegistryLetter.pdf.

Energy Bill Conference Begins, Administration Weighs In

House and Senate conferees on the energy bill, H. R. 4, held their first meeting on June 27, after nearly two weeks of bickering over whether it was the turn of the House or the Senate to chair the conference committee. It was finally agreed that Rep. Billy Tauzin, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, will chair the horse-trading sessions.

Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham sent a letter to Tauzin on June 27 detailing the Bush Administrations positions on most of the main provisions in the House and Senate versions. The administration opposes all three climate change titles in the Senate bill (Titles 10, 11, and 13) because they “are not consistent with the Presidents climate plan.” Several sources have told Cooler Heads that during administration deliberations only the Environmental Protection Agency and the Council on Environmental Quality were against opposing the Senates three climate titles.

The administration also opposes the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) passed by the Senate, but supports the Senates expanded ethanol mandate. The RPS would require privately-owned utilities to produce 10% of their power from non-hydro renewable sources by 2020.

Abraham re-iterated Bushs support for oil and gas exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which was approved by the House. However, while supporting a natural gas pipeline from Alaska to the 48 States, the administration opposes the huge subsidies for it contained in the Senate bill.

Senate Committee Votes for CO2 Limits

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee voted out S. 556, the Clean Power Act, by a 10 to 9 vote on June 27. Although Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) said that he would like to bring the bill to the floor this fall, it appears to lack the 60 votes necessary to invoke cloture and end a filibuster.

Chairman Jim Jeffords (I-Vt.) was joined by eight committee Democrats and Republican Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) in support of Jeffordss bill. Eight Republicans and Democrat Max Baucus, who faces a re-election campaign in Montana, voted against.

Senator Bob Smith (R-N.H.) offered an amendment based on President Bushs Clear Skies initiative. That and several other Republican amendments were offered and then withdrawn before a vote because they were unlikely to pass.

Senator Chafee noted that tourism was the chief source of income in Rhode Island and expressed concern that his states beaches would disappear because of manmade global warming. He cited the administrations Climate Action Report 2002 as evidence.

S. 556 would require electric power plants to reduce their emissions of nitrogen oxides by 83 percent, sulfur dioxide by 83 percent, mercury by 90 percent, and carbon dioxide by 23 percent from today’s levels by 2008. This is the first piece of legislation marked up in Congress to contain mandatory CO2 emission reductions.

Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas), chairman of the House Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality, told Environment and Energy Daily (July 10) that he hoped to have President Bushs Clear Skies plan introduced in legislative form before the end of this Congress. He also said that he still opposes regulating CO2 emissions and that he doubts that S. 556 will go anywhere while Bush is in office.

Is Kyoto a Walk in the Park?; Warm Winter was Good for the Economy

by William Yeatman on June 25, 2002

in Blog

Is Kyoto a Walk in the Park?

A new “study” of the costs of the Kyoto Protocol is getting attention even before its publication. Written by Christian Azar, a professor of sustainable industrial metabolism with the Department of Physical Resource Theory at Goteborg University, and Stephen Schneider of the Department of Biological Sciences at Stanford University, the analysis will appear in a forthcoming issue of Ecological Economics.

The article is an amazing bit of linguistic jujitsu. Recall that Bjorn Lomborg, author of the Skeptical Environmentalist, argued in his book that the tremendous costs of implementing Kyoto would result in no benefit. It would only delay the advent of predicted global warming from 2100 to 2106, so that the costs of global warming wouldnt be prevented, but delayed.

Azar and Schneider turn that argument on its head. They argue that without action to stop global warming the world will be ten times richer in 2100 than it is now and people on average will be five times richer. Implementing Kyoto, however, would only delay that date by two years. “To be 10 times as rich by 2100 versus 2102 would hardly be noticed,” Schneider told the New Scientist (June 15, 2002). And meeting the Kyoto target would mean that industrialized countries “get 20 percent richer by June 2010 rather than by January 2010.”

The argument is absurd on its face. It isnt the people who will be alive in 2100 that will be harmed by Kyoto, but the people who are alive today. Indeed, it makes no sense for those who are alive now to distribute income to increase the welfare of relatively more wealthy people who will be living 100 years from now. Moreover, if one takes seriously the Energy Information Administrations cost estimates, the Kyoto Protocols affect on GDP will be three times as large as the loss to GDP experienced during the Great Depression.

Ironically, Lomborg was chastised for doing work outside his area of expertise, yet neither Schneider nor Azar are economists and are obviously over their heads when it comes to doing economic analysis. One may ask how they managed to get a paper published in a peer reviewed economic journal if it isnt any good. It turns out that Ecological Economics is a bottom-rung economics journal that is largely a vehicle for leftist economic analysis. Oh, and by the way, Azar is on the journals editorial board.

Warm Winter was Good for the Economy

This last winter was unusually warm in the United States, something that Kyoto advocates have pointed out frequently. It turns out, however, that rather than a gloomy portent, the warmer weather was a godsend, according to a study by Stanley Changnon, chief emeritus of the Illinois State Water Survey, and his son David Changnon, a professor of geography at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

“The unseasonably warm, dry and sunny winter led to profound effects on the nations economy at critical times,” said the senior Changnon. “Several economists reported that the weather was a major factor in keeping the United States from falling into a major recession.”

The study, commissioned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, asked the Changnons to assess the economic impacts of the warm winter. What they found was that it leads to an estimated $21 billion in benefits due to lower heating costs, lower snow-removal costs, and increased construction. Makers of snow-removal equipment and winter clothing and segments of the tourism industry lost about $0.5 billion, however.

“The warm and dry weather allowed record-setting levels of home construction,” said Changnon. “Housing starts jumped 6.3 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.68 million units the highest level in two years and in February, housing starts reached their highest level since 1949.” This added “an additional $2.1 billion income to the industry.”

“The lack of severe storms also reduced property losses by $3.8 billion, which was a boon to homeowners and the insurance industry,” Changnon said. “Only one weather related catastrophe occurred a major ice storm from Oklahoma to Ohio which caused losses of $265 million. Reduced losses from a lack of snowmelt floods amounted to an additional savings of $1.3 billion for the industry and the government.”

“The more direct impacts of last winter include the costs of heating, reductions in transportation delays, lower highway maintenance costs, and reduced insurance losses,” Changnon said. “The more indirect impacts include retail sales, home sales and tourism.”

“Clean Power Act” Up for Senate Committee Vote

by William Yeatman on June 25, 2002

in Politics

The U.S. Senates Environment and Public Works Committee is scheduled to mark up and vote June 27 on the Clean Power Act (S. 556) proposed by its chairman, Senator James Jeffords (I-Vt.). If enacted, the Kyoto-style policies in the most recent version of the bill would have serious adverse impacts on the reliability and affordability of the nations electricity supply.

The bill would be very costly according to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The caps on emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxides, mercury and carbon dioxide would increase residential energy costs by 17 percent and household energy costs by 25 percent by 2010. By 2020, the cumulative cost of S. 556 to energy producers would rise to $177 billion, and eliminate 48 percent of coal-fired electricity production. It would also reduce real GDP by $100 billion the year the caps go into effect.

The full economic impacts are actually much worse, because EIA did not analyze all of the bill’s onerous restrictions, including some Chairman Jeffords added in recent weeks. For example, a provision in the most recent version lowers the specified emission caps by the number of tons collectively emitted by small producers (less than 15 megawatts capacity).

The bill requires coal-fired power plants 40 years and older to install the latest pollution control technology to reduce sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions. Edison Electric Institute argues that this requirement would affect 74 percent of coal-fired capacity by 2013 and 83 percent by 2018. This could be virtual death sentence for large portions of U.S. generating capacity. Indeed, a similar rule in California is forcing the retirement of 1,400 megawatts of generating capacity, a loss the state can ill-afford.

The higher electricity prices resulting from S. 556 would fall most heavily on poor people and retirees on fixed incomes. At a hearing on the bill earlier this month, J. Thomas Mullen, president of Catholic Charities Health and Human Services in Cleveland, testified that the bill would literally force retirees or working mothers to have to decide between eating and heating. “These are not choices any senior citizen, child, or for that matter, person in America should make,” said Mullen.

In the latest re-write, Jeffords attempts to deflect that argument by awarding 64 percent of the tradable emission allowances to “trustees” who will provide assistance to the affected households. The idea is that utilities would have to buy the allowances from residential electricity consumers, thereby offsetting the adverse affects on consumers.

But this is just smoke and mirrors according to Marlo Lewis, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. “Where, after all, does Senator Jeffords think utilities are going to get the money to buy emission credits from consumers after spending billions on technology controls and conversions from coal to natural gas?” he asks. “From their consumers, of course.”

What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference?”; ENSO Not Linked to Global Warming

by William Yeatman on June 25, 2002

in Science

What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference?”

The stated goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change it to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the atmosphere. As President George W. Bush has rightly pointed out, the Kyoto targets “were arbitrary and not based upon science” and “no one can say with any certainty what constitutes a dangerous level of warming, and therefore what level must be avoided.”

Brian C. ONeill at the Watson Institute for International Studies and the Center for Environmental Studies at Brown University and Michael Oppenheimer at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and the Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, attempt to answer that question in a Policy Forum paper in the June 14 issue of Science.

The authors admit that this is a difficult task that must “ultimately involve a mixture of scientific, economic, political, ethical, and cultural considerations, among others. In addition, the links among emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, climate change, and impacts are uncertain. Furthermore, what might be considered dangerous could change over time.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified two criteria for defining “dangerous” interference: “warming involving risk to unique and threatened systems and warming engendering a risk of large-scale discontinuities in the climate system.”

The authors offer three risks which would fall under these criteria, (1) “Large-scale eradication of coral reef systems,” (2) the “disintegration of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS),” and (3) “the weakening or shutdown of the density-driven, large scale circulation of the oceans (thermohaline circulation or THC).”

To prevent severe damage to reef systems, the authors recommend a long-term target of one degree C above 1990 global temperatures. To protect the WAIS would require a limit of two degrees C above 1990 temperatures. And to stop the shutdown of the THC would require a limit of three degrees C warming over the next 100 years.

None of these cases is particularly convincing, however. As noted in a critique of this study by The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change (www.co2science.org), the evidence shows that coral reefs have been shown to be very resilient in the face of temperature change. Coral reefs have survived several past interglacial periods that experienced warmer temperatures than now. For example, the most recent interglacial was a full three degrees C warmer than the current interglacial, yet coral reefs survived.

Recent studies have cast serious doubt on the likelihood of a collapse of the WAIS or the shutdown of the THC. A June 19 study in Science found that the WAIS is actually thickening. A January 31 study in Nature found that the Antarctic has been cooling since 1966. And another study in the February 21 issue of Nature found that the palaeoclimate data show that abrupt changes to the THC are not characteristic of the current interglacial, but are characteristic of the latest glaciation. In other words, it is unlikely that global warming will cause the THC to shut down.

ENSO Not Linked to Global Warming

With El Nio returning to the southern Pacific, it wont be long before we begin hearing about the ill effects of global warming and its possible link to this large-scale natural weather phenomenon. A study in the February 2002 issue of Paleoceanography shows that there is no connection between global warming and the frequency or strength of El Nio.

Using palaeoclimate data, the researchers reconstructed a record of El Nio activity, the latter 400 years of the record being the most reliable. The data show that El Nio activity “was more frequent after 1980, lower in the 1940-1975 epoch, and again more frequent around the beginning of the 1900s.”  It also showed that “the 1860-1880 period was relatively quiescent,” while “the 1820-1860 period was also a period of relatively vigorous ENSO [El Nio Southern Oscillation] activity.”  Indeed, the 1820-1860 period was “similar to [that] observed in the past two decades.”

The study concludes, “As these observations extend at least into the preindustrial period, attribution of the unusually ENSO-rich past few decades may lie in part with natural variability.” This is a bit of an understatement given the evidence. It looks like El Nio activity is likely due entirely to natural variability.

Lomborg Speaks About Global Warming

by William Yeatman on June 22, 2002

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics, Science

At a briefing in Capital Hill on October 5 Danish statistician Bjorn Lomborg, once a member of Greenpeace, argued that predictions of the world heading for ruin are wrong. In 1997 he set out to challenge acclaimed economist Julian Simon who refuted environmentalist claims that the world was running out of resources. Lomborg discovered that the data on a whole supported Simon. “The Skeptical Environmentalist,” Lomborg’s new book is a composite of graphs, charts and statistics that factually show the earth’s environment is steadily improving.

His book asserts among other things that the global warming issue is overblown. In short he attests, “Things are getting better.” In his presentation, Lomborg said that global warming is a real issue, but suggested that the prime danger is the Kyoto Treaty, which he cites as a grand waste of money. He said, “Essentially Kyoto will do very little to change global warming. On the other hand Kyoto will be very expensive. It will cost anywhere from $150-350 billion a year, and that’s a lot of money when compared to the total global aid of $50 billion a year. Basically, just for one year of Kyoto, we could give clean drinking water and sanitation to every person on earth. This would avoid 2 million deaths a year, and assist half a billion people from not getting seriously ill each year.”

Environmentalists tend to be ecologically pessimistic about the future. Veterans of the environmental movement such as Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University and Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute have formed a litany of fears. These fears include depletion of natural resources, ever-growing population, extinction of species and pollution of the planet’s air and water. However, Lomborg’s approach is decidedly different. He says, “We must remove our myths about an imminent doomsday and remember we do not have to act in total desperation. Essential information is necessary to making the best possible decisions. Statistics tell you how the world is. Resources have become even more abundant and things are likely to progress in the future.”

The briefing was sponsored by the Cooler Heads Coalition, made up of 23 non-profit organizations that work on global warming issues.

U. S. Out of Kyoto For a Decade At Least; California Assembly Delays CO2 Vote; Canada Finding Reasons Not to Ratify; Campaign E

by William Yeatman on May 17, 2002

in Politics

U. S. Out of Kyoto For a Decade At Least

There is no chance that the United States will get back into the Kyoto Protocol before 2012, according to Dr. Harlan Watson, the U. S. State Departments senior climate negotiator. The Times of London (May 14, 2002) reported comments made by Watson while in London for talks with British officials.

“We have set 2012 as the date to take stock and if theres going to be a review of policy that is the time to do it,” he said. “We are not going to be part of the Kyoto Protocol for the foreseeable future and the 2005 review is not something we intend on being actively engaged in.”

When asked if that means that U.S. ratification of the Kyoto Protocol has been ruled out for the next decade, Watson responded, “That is correct that there is no chance before 2012. In order for any treaty to be ratified, it needs 67 votes in the Senate, and Kyoto is thus an unratifiable treaty. Theres no way that the U.S. could participate, even if the President sent it up again.” This remains true in Watsons judgment even if a Democrat were elected president in 2004 or 2008.

On a related note, Undersecretary of State Paula Dobriansky responded on May 15 to an April 8 letter from Christopher Horner, the Cooler Heads Coalitions counsel. Horners letter laid out the case for the U. S. government to remove its signature from the Kyoto Protocol. Dobriansky responded that, “President Bush and this administration have made clear on numerous occasions that the Kyoto Protocol is fatally flawed and that the United States will not participate in it.” She did not address the inconsistency between un-signing the Rome treaty creating the International Criminal Court and keeping the U. S. signature on Kyoto.

California Assembly Delays CO2 Vote

The California Assembly has postponed a vote on a bill that would regulate greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles. The bill, AB 1058, would require the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to formulate rules to achieve the “maximum feasible and cost-effective” emissions reductions. If passed into law, the bill would go into effect in 2006 and apply to the 2009 model year.

The Assembly originally passed AB 1058 earlier this year, but must now approve minor Senate changes before it can be sent to Governor Davis. The reported reason the vote has been postponed is that bill supporters arent certain that they have the votes (Greenwire, May 15, 2002). In the last few weeks, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers has mounted a large-scale campaign against the measure, including radio and newspaper advertising. The United Auto Workers union has now also come out strongly against it.

According to the San Jose Mercury News (May 14, 2002), Assemblyman Joe Canciamilla (D) originally voted for the bill out of courtesy to its sponsor, Assemblywoman Fran Pavley (D), but is now having second thoughts. He fears that the bill would give CARB too much power. “There is a certain amount of disagreement as to the science and what we can do,” Canciamilla said. “I am wondering now if [the bill] is something that makes sense.”

Canada Finding Reasons Not to Ratify

The Canadian government has just released “A Discussion Paper on Canadas Contribution to Addressing Climate Change.” The paper first sets out the problem: “Business-as-usual projections would see Canadas GHG emissions rise to approximately 809 MT [megatons] by 2010. Canadas Kyoto target is 571 MT by 2010, creating a “gap” of about 240 MT that must be addressed.”

The cost of meeting that target, according to the discussion paper, would be between zero and two percent of GDP by 2010. Instead of growing 31 percent by 2010, GDP would only grow by 29 percent at worst. “The AMG [Analysis and Modelling Group] estimates indicate that, unless policies are well designed, the impact could be uneven across provinces and territories. This is particularly true for the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland.”

The paper offers several options for meeting Canadas Kyoto target, such as a domestic emissions trading program, more specific measures targeted at consumers or particular sectors of the economy, or government purchases of international permits.

Campaign ExxonMobil Warns of “Tobacco Suits”

A new report released by Campaign ExxonMobil, the group responsible for bringing shareholder resolutions to harass the company for its position on global warming, says that the company is risking shareholder value by opposing global warming regulation. ExxonMobil called the analysis “ridiculous.”

The most interesting part of the report is a side bar which threatens that ExxonMobil and other corporations that do not get behind efforts to ration energy will find themselves being hauled into court. “It is highly likely that serious damage will occur as a result of climate change,” says the report. “The aggrieved parties are likely to seek compensation from those who (sic) they regard as responsible.”

The report continues, “While ExxonMobil is no stranger to billion dollar lawsuits, climate change actions could swamp even those seen in the tobacco industry. The potential value at risk here could easily exceed $100 billion, especially as annual losses from climate change could significantly exceed that figure.

“Even if ExxonMobil escapes liability, it could be dragged into interminable lawsuits, at considerable expense and loss of management time. One estimate is that Philip Morris spent as much as $700 million on lawyers in the 1990s.” The report, by Mark Mansley, head of Claros Consulting, can be downloaded at www.campaignexxonmobil.org.

Greenpeace released another attack on ExxonMobil just in time for the international week of protest against the oil giant, which culminates on May 18 with boycotts and demonstrations at Esso stations throughout Britain. Denial and Deception: A Chronicle of ExxonMobils Efforts to Corrupt the Debate on Global Warming may be downloaded at http://www.greenpeaceusa.org/climate/pdfs/exxon_denial.pdf.

The Greenpeace “report” contains some astonishing claims, of which we quote only one: “It was recently reported that Exxon and Mobil spent approximately $1 billion financing the GCC [Global Climate Coalition], though accurate figures may never be known.” A footnote cites an article in the April 5 Guardian newspaper by environment correspondent Paul Brown. Browns article offers no source or evidence for the figure and refers to the GCC as the Climate Change Convention.

IPCC to Study Regional Impacts; Urban Heat Island Effects in Australia

by William Yeatman on May 17, 2002

in Science

IPCC to Study Regional Impacts

The new Chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri, who is currently working to set the agenda for the panels fourth assessment report (FAR), said that the IPCC will “place more emphasis on regional assessments of climate change, and on its socio-economic impact,” according to the May 9 issue of Nature.

As an example of the kind of work the IPCC needs to do, Pachauri pointed out the melting ice on the Himalayas. “Five hundred million people depend on these glaciers for their water supply,” he said. “What kind of response do we have? To take an extreme example, we could move highly water-intensive industry out of that region. If you have 20 or 30 years to do that you are not going to cause major disruption.”

Pachauri is aiming at having the FAR finished in time to influence negotiations scheduled to begin in 2005 to set new greenhouse gas emission targets for 2013 and beyond. The report may have an assessment of the state of greenhouse reduction technology and carbon sequestration.

According to Nature, Pachauri is also “launching a $500,000 feasibility study on an advisory mechanism to inform governments and international bodies on the scientific issues facing global agriculture, including the implications of genetically modified crops.”

The focus on regional impacts is likely to be highly controversial. Due to lack of computing power, computer models have difficulty dealing with regional scale climate variables. The IPCCs own Third Assessment Report included an entire chapter in its science report assessing the regional climate information from climate models. It concludes that a “coherent picture of regional climate change via available regionalization techniques cannot yet be drawn (Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis pg. 623).”

Urban Heat Island Effects in Australia

A study appearing in the Australian Meteorological Magazine (50: 2001) found that even very small towns can exhibit detectable urban heat islands. The studys authors studied the urban heat island effects of several Australian cities with populations from 1,000 to 3,000,000 people.

The authors noted that the heat islands of Australian cities tended to be smaller and to increase at a slower rate with population than similarly sized cities in Europe and North America. As noted by CO2 Science Magazine (www.co2science.com), “The regression lines of all three continents essentially converged in the vicinity of a population of 1,000 people, however, where the mean urban-rural temperature difference was approximately 2.2 0.2 degrees C.”

In other words small towns are likely to have urban heat islands that raise temperature about the same amount as the amount of global warming since the Little Ice Age. According to CO2 Science, “With such small aggregations of people having such a dramatic impact on air temperature, it is ludicrous to believe that on top of the natural warming experienced by the earth in recovering from the Little Ice Age we can confidently discern an even more subtle increase in background temperature caused by concomitant increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.”

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