William Yeatman

Senator Inhofe Opposes Clintons Greenhouse Budget; Eizenstat Testifies Before Congress; Scientists Throw Cold Water on Kyoto Agr

by William Yeatman on February 28, 1998

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics

Senator Inhofe Opposes Clintons Greenhouse Budget

U.S. Senator James M. Inhofe (R-Okla.) has made it clear he will oppose the Clinton Administrations $6.3 billion tax and subsidy proposal designed “to try to mold the behavior of U.S. businesses to conform with the global warming ideology.”

“The Presidents decision to sidestep the treaty ratification process and start unilaterally implementing the Global Warming agreement is wrong,” Inhofe said. “There should be no action taken by the Administration on this issue before the Senate deals directly with the treaty and its surrounding issues.”

Though President Clinton says that manmade global warming has arrived, Inhofe says that in Senate committee hearings “we determined just the opposite.”

“There are huge ambiguities and uncertainties,” according to Inhofe, “about what is happening in global climate change and what can and should be done. Once again, the President is not telling the whole truth about what the science is and what it means.”

Eizenstat Testifies Before Congress

Under Secretary of State Stuart Eizenstat, chief negotiator of the Kyoto Protocol, testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on February 12 that the Clinton Administration has “no intention, through the back door or anything else, without Senate confirmation, of trying to impose or take any steps to impose what would be binding restrictions on our companies, on our industry, on our business, on our agriculture, on our commerce, on our country, until and unless the Senate of the United States says so.”

When asked by Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Ne) what new laws and regulations will be required to bring the U.S. into compliance, however, Eizenstat said that with the exception of legislation needed to establish a domestic emission trading system, no new laws would be required. “I think it can all be done within existing authorities,” Eizenstat said.

Hagel also asked Eizenstat whether the U.S. military had received a “blanket-exemption” from emission reduction targets. After trying to dodge the question, Eizenstat finally answered: “. . . we took care of those concerns the military has, and that includes those actions we unilaterally initiate that have a multilateral component, as almost everything does.”

Apparently all military actions that do not have a multilateral component (read: UN approval) will be subject to the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol, then, will further subject the U.S. military to the whims of the United Nations.

The hearings were also supposed to include Janet Yellen, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to provide the Senate with an economic impact statement which they have promised since last summer. But Eizenstat said that the economic report of the president has delayed the economic analysis of the Kyoto Protocol. Eizenstat assured the committee that the report would show “that the costs to the economy are reasonable” and that “delaying action will only increase the costs.”

“I find it astounding,” said Hagel, “that our negotiators in Kyoto were basing their decisions on what obligations to commit the Unites States to but are unwilling to share those numbers with the U.S. Senate.”

Scientists Throw Cold Water on Kyoto Agreement

Although the Clinton Administration argues that the Kyoto Protocol is a major environmental achievement, many scientists are less optimistic. The agreement is a political victory for those who wish to centrally plan the worlds energy consumption. It will not, however, do much to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

According to Jerry Mahlman, director of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University, “The best Kyoto can do is to produce a small decrease in the rate of increase.” Even so the Protocol still requires the U.S. to reduce emissions by about 40 percent by the year 2012.

Bert Bolin, outgoing Chairman of the IPCC, said, “If no further steps are taken during the next 10 years, CO2 will increase in the atmosphere during the first decade of the next century essentially as it has done during the past few decades.”

Most supporters of the treaty admit that it is only a first step. “[Y]ou have to walk before you can run,” said John Holdren a Harvard University professor of environmental policy. “If you want the energy system to look different in the next century you have to start now” (The Washington Post, February 13, 1998).

Unresolved Issues

An article in Resources (Winter 1998), a publication of Resources for the Future, discusses the shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol.

Several things, according to the authors, are needed to close the “significant gaps” which remain in the treaty. First, clearly defined rules and institutions are needed to govern both international emission trading and joint implementation. Second, clear criteria for judging compliance must be established. Third, developing countries must agree to limit their emissions at some specific date. Fourth, specific short-term goals should be set for developed countries to make long-term reductions easier.

The authors argue “that the proposed target and timetable will impose significant costs on the United State and the global economy, even after accounting for new technology stimulated by domestic policies.”

Greenhouse Pork on Wheels

The U.S. government will contribute $20 million towards a $40 million collaberative effort with industry “to produce by 2004 buses, delivery trucks, trolleys, municipal fleets and other medium-sized vehicles that use half as much fuel and emit 30 percent less exhaust than todays vehicles.”

The administration has requested $10 million for the Department of Energy and $10 million for the Department of Transportation. Seven regional research groups will contribute the remaining $20 million. Companies involved in the regional research groups include Southern California Edison Co., FMC Corp., Intel Corp., Kaiser Aluminum & Chemical Corp. and AlliedSignal Inc. Regional transit authorities, environmental groups such as the National Resources Defense Council, and state agencies are also involved (Automotive News, February 9, 1998.

Its All Chaos; Climate Change and Storminess; Sun Sheds Light on Climate Change

by William Yeatman on February 28, 1998

in Science

Its All Chaos

A serious challenge has emerged to the idea that manmade CO2 is causing of global warming. Climate modeler James Hansen and 42 other researchers have published a study in the Journal of Geophysical Research (November 27, 1997) that describes their inability to isolate specific causes of climate change from the chaotic climate.

The researchers ran three computer models of the climate with no forcings and compared the results to average annual temperatures. They then added forcings such as stratospheric aerosols, greenhouse gas buildup, ozone depletion, and others to see if the models would correspond more closely to observed conditions. The experiment failed for the troposphere where weather originates. The researchers found no correlation between the various forcings and temperature changes in the troposphere.

The authors note that, “Scientists and lay persons have a prediliction for deterministic explanations of climate variations. However, climate can vary chaotically, i.e., in the absence of any forcing. The slightest alteration of initial or boundary conditions changes the developing patterns, and thus next years weather is inherently unpredictable. This behavior results from the nonlinear fundamental equations governing the dynamics of such a system” (Electricity Daily, February 13, 1998).

Warming or Cooling?

In a study published in Science (February 13, 1998) researchers have found evidence in the ~6000-year-old coral from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia that the tropical ocean surface was 1 degree C warmer about 5350 years ago. This work suggests that earth may be in a long-term natural cooling trend.

According to Dr. Michael Gagan, the lead researcher, “The beginning of this interglacial period was warmer than now. Theres been a long-term cooling trend.” He also says that the natural cooling effect may be too weak to offset human-induced global warming (The Canberra Times, February 14, 1998).

Climate Change and Storminess

One of the oft-repeated scare stories about climate change is that warmer global temperatures will lead to more frequent and severe storms, including cyclones. Dr. Patrick Michaels of the University of Virginia points out, however, that climate models suggest that most warming will occur over the high latitudes in winter while the tropics will warm relatively less. Since it is the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles that fuels the jet stream and the jet stream that fuels winter storms, this would suggest that global warming would lead to fewer, less severe storms.

Several studies related to this phenomenon support Michaels contention. One paper, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (1996), found no trend in changes in intense cyclones from 1899 to 1970. It did, however, find a significant increase from 1970 to 1991. But over the Pacific, for example, there was a link between stronger storms and lower temperatures.

Another study published in the Journal of Climate (1998) found that from 1990 on there was a statistically significant increase in the number of strong storms. The researchers also found that cold years have more storms that warm years.

Finally, a study published in the International Journal of Climatology (1998) found that the cost of weather damage had risen precipitously since 1954 but after correcting for inflation, population, and the number of storm events, the researchers found no trend in weather related insurance losses. See www.nhes.com for more details.

Sun Sheds Light on Climate Change

Two papers delivered at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) shed light on suns role in climate change.

Brian Tinsley of the University of Texas presented research that shows that the electromagnetic solar wind can freeze particles on the tops of high clouds by changing the electromagnetic charges of the particles causing the clouds to dissipate.

“If you dissipate, then you get more solar radiation to the earth,” Tinsley said. Tinsley believes that more than half of all warming in this century is due to changes in sunspots and solar flares.

Harry van Loon of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Karen Labitzke of the Free University of Berlin told the AAAS meeting that they have found that temperature changes correspond to the 11-year sunspot cycle an effect that has been noted in the Northern Hemisphere. The correlation is strongest in summer and has been found in the Southern Hemisphere (Electricity Daily, February 19, 1998).

Coal is Safe from Cuts; No Energy Taxes for Ireland

by William Yeatman on February 12, 1998

in Blog

Coal is Safe from Cuts

According to Bob Armstrong, assistant secretary for land and minerals management at the Department of Interior, the Kyoto Protocol will not require reductions in coal use. Speaking at a DOI conference on the future of coal, Armstrong said that reductions in greenhouse gases can be achieved through better technological advances in fuel efficiency and pollution abatement (Greenwire, January 22, 1998). Of course the federal government has already spent billions of dollars on clean coal technologies with little success.

No Energy Taxes for Ireland

The Irish Business and Employers’ Confederation (IBEC) will oppose energy taxes at the national and European Union level to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. IBEC argues that unilateral imposition of energy taxes would have “a serious detrimental effect on the competitiveness of European and Irish industry” (The Irish Times, January 28, 1998).

More on 1997 Temperatures; Deaths From Heat and Cold; Ice Flows and Ocean Currents

by William Yeatman on February 12, 1998

in Science

More on 1997 Temperatures

On January 8, federal climatologist Tom Karl announced that 1997 was the warmest year on record. The World Climate Report (WCR) disputes the claim. One of Karls graphics, for example, show that most of the warming over the last 50 years occurred in Siberia and northwestern North America, the two coldest air masses in the world. Little or no warming has been observed anywhere else. While this raises the global average temperature its not really global warming.

The WCR argues further that the Karls data is a “blend of global temperatures that mixes apples and oranges.” First, the land temperature was about the fifth highest on record. The ocean temperatures, which pushed global average temperatures to record highs, were taken from buoys that deployed to better measure El Nio. But better data on the above-the-ocean temperature is available from the Night Marine Air Temperature which is more consistent with both the land and satellite records. The WCR article can be found at www.nhes.com.

Deaths From Heat and Cold

Between 600 and 700 Americans die each year of excessive cold and 240 die per year from excessive heat in normal years. Those most at risk from temperature extremes are the homeless, poor, elderly, those with severe health problems, and those who lack proper nutrition, housing and clothing. During abnormal years, deaths from temperature extremes can increase to well over a thousand for each extreme (Scientific American, February 1998).

The lesson that should be taken from these statistics is not that we must prevent temperature extremes but rather we should improve societys wealth so as to avoid the adverse consequences. Those who have proper heating and air-conditioning, nutrition and shelter are much less likely to suffer from extreme temperatures. The Kyoto Protocol will reduce wealth, and therefore, increase mortality from temperature extremes.

Ice Flows and Ocean Currents

Much has been made of possible disruptions to ocean currents as a result of global warming. One fear is that melting ice sheets will change the density of sea water, disrupting deep ocean currents and cooling Europes climate. The British Antarctic Survey (BAS), however, disputes these claims. According to Dr. David Vaughn, a glaciologist with the BAS, global warming would have to continue at the same rate for the next 300 years before there would be any affect on Britains climate (The Evening Standard, January 29, 1998).

Etc.

For a good overview on the shortcomings of the surface temperature record see www.vision.net.au/~daly/surftemp.htm. The article discusses the urban heat island effect, site maintenance problems, geographical spread, ocean temperatures, etc.

Vice President Al Gore Receives Enemy of the Taxpayer Award

by William Yeatman on February 10, 1998

in Blog

CONTACT: Peter Cleary, Communications Manager,  202-785-0266

Washington, D.C. Today, as the Senate holds its hearing on the implications of the Kyoto protocol, Americans for Tax Reform issued a special “Enemy of the Taxpayer Award” to the Vice President of the United States, Al Gore.

The Vice Presidents selection for this dubious distinction was a direct result of the role he played in the global climate conference in Kyoto, Japan. Negotiations stalled in Kyoto because other nations were all too happy to impose immense energy costs on the United States, but were not willing to wreak the same havoc on their own economies. At this point Gore rushed to Japan to tell the U.S. negotiators to be more flexible. As a result these negotiators caved on the following issues:

NO to universal application of the treaty. Only developed countries are required to follow the stringent protocol of the treaty. Major emerging economies including Mexico, China, India and Brazil will not be required to participate in solving this global problem despite knowledge that these countries will soon outpace developed countries in production of carbon dioxide.

NO to concerns about the costs of the treaty. Under this treaty the U.S. will be required to reduce carbon emissions to seven percent below 1990 levels. According to an internal EPA memo, this will require massive increases in energy taxes including a fifty cent gas tax, a BTU tax and other consumption based taxes.

As a result of the required dramatic increases in energy taxes, ratification would lead to entire industries fleeing the U.S. for destinations that are not required to participate in emissions reductions required by this treaty. Together, this combination of disastrous effects on our economy would ensure an economic depression comparable to, if not worse than, the Great Depression of the 1930s. Americans for Tax Reform views the role the Vice President played in the negotiation process of this disastrous treaty as tantamount to an act of economic treason against the United States.

Americans for Tax Reform is a non-profit, non-partisan coalition of over 70,000 taxpayers and taxpayer advocacy groups committed to opposing tax increases at the state and federal level.

Clintons Multi-billion Dollar Plan; Senator Helms Enters the Fray; Foreign Policy Experts Oppose Kyoto Protocol; “Political” Sci

by William Yeatman on February 3, 1998

in Politics

Clintons Multi-billion Dollar Plan

On January 30, the Clinton administration announced a $6.3 billion emissions reduction plan. The budget for fiscal year 1999 will include $3.6 billion in tax credits and $2.7 billion in new research and development funding over the next five years. The plan will focus on four areas: buildings, industry, transportation, and electricity.

The package will include tax credits worth $100 million for rooftop solar systems. Homebuilders can receive tax credits for 15 percent of the cost of the systems with a maximum credit of $2,000 for photovoltaic systems and $1,000 for solar water heating systems.

To encourage industry support, nine hundred million dollars worth of tax credits will be made available for business firms who install combined heat and power systems. The tax credit will be ten percent of the cost of investment.

Energy-efficient buildings will receive a tax credit worth twenty percent of the investment subject to a cap and purchasers of new energy efficient homes will receive a tax credit equal to 1 percent of the purchase price up to a maximum credit of $2,000.

The Clinton administration will also propose a tax credit for fuel-efficient vehicles worth $700 million. Vehicles with triple the base fuel economy standard would be eligible for a tax credit worth $4,000 per vehicle. A proposal to equalize tax treatment of parking and transit and vanpool benefits will cost $100 million.

Finally, the administration will propose tax credits for electricity produced from wind and biomass worth $200 million (BNA Daily Environment Report, February 2, 1998).

Senator Helms Enters the Fray

In a letter to President Clinton, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms (R-NC) accused the President of “unwisely and unnecessarily” delaying Senate consideration of several international treaties. Helms said that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will not consider the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty until the President submits the Kyoto Protocol to the Senate for ratification.

“We owe it to the American people to let them know sooner rather than later, whether they will be subject to the terms of this treaty,” Helms wrote. A Clinton spokesperson responded that “the administration has no intention of submitting the Kyoto Protocol until there is meaningful participation from developing countries” (Greenwire, January 23, 1998).

Foreign Policy Experts Oppose Kyoto Protocol

Members of the Committee to Preserve American Security and Sovereignty (COMPASS) wrote a letter to President Clinton opposing the Kyoto Protocol. The letter reads in part, “lessons we have learned from (past) negotiations in arms control, trade and other areas . . . have been ignored or forgotten in the Kyoto process.” The letter argues that the Protocol “threatens to limit the exercise of American military power.” Excerpts of the letter appeared in a full page ad in the Washington Times on January 27, 1998.

“Political” Scientist Discusses Kyoto

Former chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Bert Bolin recently offered his assessment of the Kyoto Protocol in Science (January 16, 1998). Bolin estimates that under the Kyoto Protocol atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will rise by approximately 29 parts per million by volume (ppmv). “It therefore seems likely,” writes Bolin, “that another international effort will be required well before 2010 to consider whether further measures are warranted.”

Bolin also discusses the problem of how to count carbon sinks in determining compliance. Though the protocol asks the IPCC to resolve this issue Bolin argues that, “It is . . . not clear how to devise satisfactory methods to achieve what is envisaged in the protocol.”

Bolin concludes that, “The Kyoto conference did not achieve much with regard to limiting the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.” However, he sees the conference as a good first step towards the ultimate objective, “to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Bolin did not, however, define “dangerous interference.”

Groups Denounce President’s Statements on Global Warming

by William Yeatman on January 28, 1998

in Small business

Contact: Consumer Alert 202-467-5809

Members of the National Consumer Coalition today denounced the Presidents comments on global climate change issues in last nights State of the Union Address. Following are statements of several groups.

“President Clintons State of the Union comments on global warming vastly overstate scientific consensus on the issue while overlooking the enormous threat to American consumers of drastic cutbacks on energy use. The Kyoto agreement would require about a 40 percent reduction in energy use by 2012. Throwing away $6 billion of taxpayers money for magic bullets wont do a thing to diminish this consumer impact, which will be felt disproportionately by the poor.”

— Frances B. Smith — Executive Director, Consumer Alert

“I urge the Congress to study the Kyoto Treaty and familiarize themselves with the scientific debate on this issue. There is not a consensus within the scientific community on the causes or effects of global warming, despite the administration claims of an overwhelming scientific consensus. Congress must be very cautious before it commits itself to any programs that will assist implementation of this treaty.”

— Grover G. Norquist — President, Americans for Tax Reform

“Clinton seeks to bribe American companies into jumping on the Kyoto bandwagon. Super accurate satellite records, spanning nearly twenty years, show no global warming; and the modest warming that may occur over the next century would likely boost agricultural output and produce milder weather. The Clinton R&D proposals energy-efficient appliances, solar panels, hybrid cars, and the like are nothing more than a phony, all gain, no pain energy diet. Federally-sponsored energy R&D, from Synfuels to electric cars, has been a spectacular history of boondoggle and failure. The climate treaty is a grand pretext for reviving centralized economic planning. The subsidies are obviously an effort to co-opt consumer and business opposition to the treaty.”

— Fred Smith — President, Competitive Enterprise Institute

“Once again President Clinton has proposed a wrath of new federal programs and initiatives which greatly expand both the size and scope of government. Most of these intrusive proposals will fall on the backs of small business and our workers. Whatever happened to the end of big government? And how come American taxpayers can afford these expensive new programs, but cant afford a well-deserved tax cut?”

— Karen Kerrigan — President, Small Business Survival Committee

“The Kyoto treaty will stifle the very free market forces that created this unprecedented period of economic growth and clean environment. Lets not continue to careen down an unknown path to an uncertain destination. The members of The Seniors Coalition, like the US Senate, oppose this Treaty and any programs that seek to implement it.”

— Thair Phillips — CEO, Seniors Coalition

The National Consumer Coalition is a non-profit, non-partisan consumer coalition representing over 4 million Americans.

GM Sells Out?; Kyoto Will Hurt Corn Growers

by William Yeatman on January 25, 1998

in Blog

GM Sells Out?

General Motors Corporation has announced that it will collaborate with The World Resources Institute “to identify measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while protecting the economy.”

“Global climate policies that are both environmentally compatible and economically sound is our goal, and this initiative will explore these opportunities. We recognize WRI as an influential thought leader on environmental issues worldwide working toward balanced solutions,” said Dennis Minano, GM Vice-President of Public Policy and Chief Environmental Officer. The press release can be read at www.junkscience.com/news/gmwri.htm.

Critics of the move claim that GM’s goal should be to produce the best automobiles (i.e., that satisfy consumer wants) it can as efficiently (i.e., lowest cost) as it can not lending legitimacy to half-baked environmental scares. Industry should recognize that “collaborating” with environmental groups is a no win situation. Industry appears to be admitting to environmental crimes while giving environmental organizations greater credibility and emboldens their attack on industry.

Kyoto Will Hurt Corn Growers

The American Corn Growers Association (ACGA) warns that the Kyoto Protocol will raise production costs and lower the incomes of America’s corn growers. A study by Sparks Cos. found that implementing the Kyoto Protocol would raise gasoline costs will rise by 33 percent, natural gas by 130 percent and coal by 500 percent, leading to an 8.5 percent increase in the cost of corn production and a 46 percent decrease in net farm income.

“Corn is one of the most costly crops to produce when you take into consideration the costs of inputs such as fertilizer, fuel and irrigation,” says ACGA president Gary Goldberg. “With these kinds of added expenses being placed upon the farmer, it is likely that corn growers will find other, less expensive crops to grow, such as soybeans, wheat or grain sorghum.”

Goldberg also points out that the Kyoto protocol could spell the end of the domestic corn-for-ethanol market. “Even though ethanol is a superior fuel to burn to help reduce global warming, U.S. corn-based ethanol will not be part of the mix,” he said. This is because ethanol production will likely shift to developing countries like Brazil which produces ethanol from sugar cane (Tulsa World, December 7, 1997).

No Stealth Implementation; Byrd-Hagel Split

by William Yeatman on January 25, 1998

in Politics

No Stealth Implementation

Rep. David McIntosh, R-Ind., directed his Government Reform and Oversight regulatory subcommittee to send letters to the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Council of Economic Advisors warning them not to try and implement the Kyoto Protocol prior to Senate confirmation.

A subcommittee aide said, “We believe they have no authority to regulate when they can’t get a treaty through the Senate.” Any signs of “backdoor” implementation of the treaty could trigger oversight hearings, warns the aide (Greenwire, January 14, 1998).

Byrd-Hagel Split

Greenwire (January 14, 1998) reported that though Sens. Robert Byrd (D-WV) and Chuck Hagel (R-NE), co-authors of the Senate resolution which required the Kyoto Protocol to include developing nations and to avoid economic harm, agree that the protocol as it now stands does not meet the conditions of the resolution. However, they do not agree about the validity of the science behind the climate change hypothesis.

Byrd believes that the Kyoto Protocol is a good start. Hagel on the other hand is currently crafting an opposition strategy. A staffer with the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee says that, “Hagel is going to try his damnedest to hold Byrd . . . but I don’t think Byrd is going to throw his support behind it, this time.”

Was 1997 the Hottest Year to Date?; Warming May Be Natural

by William Yeatman on January 25, 1998

in Science

Was 1997 the Hottest Year to Date?

In December 1997, just in time to influence the Kyoto treaty negotiations, the British Meteorological Office predicted that 1997 would be the warmest year on record. On January 8, 1998 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that, according to the ground-based temperature record, 1997 did reach record high global temperatures.

Temperatures taken from U.S. Weather satellites, however, indicate that 1997 was the 7th coolest year since satellite measurements began in 1979.

Though no further evidence regarding man’s influence on the climate has come to light some scientists are proclaiming that 1997’s global temperature shows once and for all that man is warming the planet. “For the first time, I feel confident in saying there’s a human component,” said Elbert W. Friday, Jr., a meteorologist with the NOAA (Washington Post, January 9, 1998). It is very difficult, however, to pin 1997’s warmer temperatures on manmade greenhouse gases.

El Nio is responsible for most of the warming experienced in 1997. Sea surface temperatures were very high this year due to El Nio conditions, but land air temperatures were well below record highs. This year’s El Nio began in the spring of 1997 and will run its course by spring 1998. Normally El Nio begins around Christmas and lasts two years. Forecasters are predicting that La Nia, which will cool temperatures significantly, will predominate in 1998 (www.elnino.noaa.gov).

The urban heat-island effect strongly influences the surface-based global temperature record. In a paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 1989, Thomas R. Karl, senior scientist at the National Climate Data Center, corrected the U.S. surface temperatures for the urban heat-island effect and found that there has been a downward temperature trend since 1940. This suggests a strong warming bias in the surface-based temperature record.

Notably, climate change proponents have stopped short of adding the final nail. Though Tom Karl said, “We believe this tendency for increased global temperature is related to human activity,” he recognizes the influence of El Nio. “Whether it would have been the warmest year this century is a matter of debate, but it certainly would have been in the top 10,” said Karl. James Hansen, the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies said that the slight increase in global temperature is “not really significant” in determining the human impact on global climate (New York Times, January 9, 1998).

Warming May Be Natural

The fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) featured new papers which demonstrate the extent of uncertainty in climate science. Joyce Penner, a climate modeler at the University of Michigan and a noted contributor to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, presented her most recent findings. She has found that carbon and sulfur emissions can cool down the planet. “Whereas greenhouse gases have led to a warming of 2.5 Watts per meter squared (W/m2), aerosols like soot particles and sulfuric acid reflect nearly twice as much energy under certain conditions,” said Penner.

Carbon aerosols, she explains, add between 0.16 and 0.20 W/m2, warming the planet. But Penner’s latest simulations at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory show that carbon aerosols trapped in clouds may cool the earth’s atmosphere by as much as -4.4 W/m2 or a net decrease of 0.7 to 2.1 degrees C. Since the models rely on uncertain estimates for natural sources of aerosols the actual number for negative forcing could be as low as -2.4 W/m2.

“I had not expected to get such a large negative forcing from carbon aerosols in clouds. If these results hold up, we are going to have to do a lot more work to understand how climate might change in the future,” said Penner. According to Penner, if her findings are confirmed then “the warming we’ve seen over the last 100 years may simply be due to natural variability.” A January 8 news release reporting on Dr. Penner’s work can be found at www.umich.edu/~newsinfo/.

In another paper delivered at the AGU meeting, Harry Lins and James Slack of the U.S. Geological Survey reviewed U.S. flood records all the way back to 1914 and found no increase of flood activity. “We do not see any evidence of a change in large-scale national patterns,” says Lins.

Measuring Worldwide CO2

To implement the Kyoto Protocol scientists must figure out an acceptable way to measure carbon dioxide emissions. Scientists have not yet been able to locate the natural sink that absorbs about half of all carbon dioxide that enters the atmosphere. Some scientists think the ocean is the culprit while others believe it to be trees or soil. The bottom line is that scientists have very little understanding of natural sinks and it may be some time before they work out the details (Science, January 2, 1998).

Abrupt Climate Change

A new study in Nature (January 8, 1998) argues that there was an abrupt change in climate at the end of the Younger Dryas interval. Fractionated nitrogen and argon isotopes found in ice cores from Greenland have revealed that there was an abrupt warming about 11.6 thousand years ago. The warming (about 15 degrees C) occurred over a period of a few decades.

Etc.

Somebody at the Calgary Herald is not happy about the Kyoto Protocol. Two articles appearing in the newspaper have lambasted the protocol. An article (January 8, 1998) in the business section titled, “Thank the U.S. for killing Kyoto,” begins, “Calgarians shivering in the dark in recent days have been getting a preview of what life would be like if last month’s disastrous international agreement to slash greenhouse gases were implemented.”

“The federal government’s treachery and breathtaking incompetence would not only leave us shivering in the dark, a lot of us would be out of work,” the article continues. “Take comfort in the fact that the absurd deal reached in Kyoto, Japan will never come to pass.” Article author Barry Nelson argues that the U.S. Senate will never ratify the treaty and Canada will follow suit. “The U.S. is saving us from ourselves,” says Nelson.

An editorial in the same edition titled, “Witch-doctor tactics won out at Kyoto” begins, “In primitive civilizations, political rulers sacrificed their people to mystical beliefs and deities. Egged on by priests or witch-doctors, the rulers ordered the construction of massive pyramids and temples with the blood, sweat and lives of their subservient masses. Mysticism served as an effective means of gaining and maintaining dictatorial power.”

“The recent UN Framework Conference on Climate Change in Kyoto indicates that nothing, in essence, has changed. Despite the fact that manmade global warming is an unsubstantiated hypothesis, the world’s political leaders worked frantically to reach a legally-binding treaty to cut greenhouse gas emissions, thus sacrificing our liberty and prosperity to environmentalist scaremongering.”

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