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Mortality Effects of Regulating Coal; Wind Powered by Tax Credits

by William Yeatman on February 4, 2003

in Blog

Mortality Effects of Regulating Coal

A new study finds that regulations that would reduce the use of low-cost coal-fired power would lead to significant increases in mortality rates, particularly among the poor. The study, Mortality Reductions From Use of Low-Cost Coal-Fired Power: An Analytical Framework, by Daniel E. Klein, president and founder of Twenty-First Strategies, and Ralph L. Keeney, a research professor with the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, notes that “It is now widely recognized that wealthier individuals are more likely to live safer, healthier, and longer lives.”

Low cost coal has been a major part of the U.S. energy supply and has brought tremendous benefits to Americans. “Indeed,” says the study, “the availability of low-cost electricity has accelerated the electrification of our energy systems, with an ever-growing share of our energy use comprised of electricity.” Any curtailment on the use of coal would force Americans to use other more expensive alternatives, most likely natural gas.

The study proposes an analytical framework for determining the effects of reducing coal use, but does not “presume any level of coal displacement of any particular policy initiative.” What it does is extrapolate the costs of reducing coal use from a series of economic studies to determine the income and employment effects of a hypothetical 100 percent displacement of coal, which are then related to health effects. These findings may then be “scaled on a linear basis to estimate the premature mortality implications of various policy initiatives.”

The study finds that fully replacing coal-fired power in the U.S. would reduce total household income by 125225 billion dollars in 2010, the peak year impact. It would also lower employment by 2.2 to 4.5 million jobs. These impacts would persist for 5 to 10 years as the economy adjusts to higher energy costs.

The relationship between loss of disposable income and mortality rates suggests that regulatory costs of $6.818.5 million lead to one additional adult death. For regulatory costs related to electricity, $8.9 million induces one additional adult death. Thus a loss of disposable income of $125225 billion in 2010 could lead to 1425 thousand additional deaths. The study also notes that these costs disproportionately affect the poor, because they spend a larger percentage of their income on electricity than wealthier individuals. Those earning less than $15,000 per year (about 16.5 percent of all households) would suffer 43 percent of the total additional deaths, while those earning over $50,000 would only incur 9 percent of the additional deaths.

The study did not estimate income-related deaths in children or unemployment-induced deaths, partly because of the possibility of double counting. “However, our extrapolations from other studies suggest substantial mortality impacts, possibly in excess of 100,000 lives,” says the study.

The study was funded by the Association of American Railroads, the Center for Energy and Economic Development, the Edison Electric Institute, the National Black Chamber of Commerce, the National Mining Association, and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association.

Wind Powered by Tax Credits

The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) has announced that the amount of generation capacity added in 2002 fell off significantly from 2001, due to uncertainty over the availability of a federal 1.7-cent-per-kilowatt-hour tax credit for wind farm owners and operators. The tax credit expired in December 2001 and was not renewed again until March 2002. The tax credit lapsed again in December 2002. Only 410 MW of wind power generation were installed in 2002, compared to 1700 MW in 2001.

This came as no surprise to AWEA, however, which predicted that there would be a decline in new generation unless the tax credit was kept up to date. This is not the first time that a lapse in the tax credit has had a significant impact on new installation. In 1999, installation of new generation fell to 50 MW when the tax credit was no longer available. Because wind power is not cost-competitive without the tax credit, the lapses lead to a boom-and-bust cycle for the industry.

Now, Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) has introduced a bill in Congress to extend the tax credit through Jan. 1, 2014 to allow for growth in the market. “We love it,” said Jaime Steve, AWEAs legislative director. “It gives business some stability so they can plan and gets rid of the boom-and-bust cycle in the industry.” One energy company, FPL Energy, has plans to install significant wind generating capacity this year, anywhere from 700 MW to 1200 MW. But, according to company spokesman Steven Stengel, the fate of the production tax credit will have an impact on the companys future plans.

What is not clear is why taxpayers should be funding an industry that cannot survive without their help, or why wind power should receive special treatment over its competitors. Wind power subsidies are so extensive that their value sometimes exceeds the wind farms revenues from selling electricity.

It is unlikely that the bill will succeed, however. A bill introduced last year by Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) to extend the tax credit for five years went nowhere.

Greenhouse Effect Weakening?

by William Yeatman on February 4, 2003

in Science

A new study appearing in the January 10 issue of Geophysical Research Letters has found that the greenhouse effect may be weakening due to changes in cloud cover that do not correspond with climate model predictions.

The study, conducted by Robert Cess, with the State University of New York at Stony Brook, and his late colleague Petra Udelhofen, looked at the role of clouds on climate in the tropics and subtropics by comparing the results of a climate model to observations. The model shows temperature rising since 1970 along with the strength of the greenhouse effect.

As more greenhouse gas concentrations increase, less heat or outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), should be able to escape the atmosphere. If this is the case, then observations from space should measure a long-term decline in OLR. The model also indicates, however, that there should be a decline in incoming sunlight, or absorbed shortwave radiation (ASW). This would come about through increases in cloud cover.

Cess and Udelhofen use satellite data from 1985 to the present to test this model result. What they found was that even though there has been a general warming since 1985, both OLR and ASW are increasing, not decreasing. In other words, the greenhouse effect is weakening. With the exception of a few years after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, the increase in OLR has been fairly steady. Moreover, increases in the ASW correspond with an observed decline in cloudiness. With fewer clouds, it is easier to raise the temperature at the surface and there is no need to invoke greenhouse gases to explain the change.

There are several possible explanations for the decline in tropical and subtropical cloudiness. Cloudiness may be responding to climate change, as suggested by Richard S. Lindzen at MIT. His research has found that high altitude clouds that block OLR decrease as temperature increases. Cess and Udelhofen argue, on the other hand, that the change in cloud cover is due to natural variation. “If the change in cloud cover is the result of natural variability acting over decadal time scales, this could considerably hamper efforts at detecting the radiative signature of future global warming.” Regardless of the reason, this is yet another instance where the models do not match reality.

Announcements

  • David Wojick, founder and president of ClimateChangeDebate.org, has published a blockbuster study on climate change uncertainties. The study, The New View of Natural Climate Variation: Fundamental Climate Science Issues Raised in Six Major National Academy of Science Studies, shows that there are still major uncertainties in the climate science. According to Wojick, scientists “have discovered or confirmed about ten natural mechanisms of climate variation, each of which can in theory explain all of the changes in 20th Century climate. Human GHG emissions are therefore just one of many alternative theories. The study is available at www.nam.org.

  • Jesse Ausubel of the Rockefeller University will give a Cooler Heads Coalition congressional and media briefing on “Climate Change: the Known, the Unknown, the Unknowable” on Friday, February 7, from noon to 1:30 in Room 628 of the Senate Dirksen Office Building. Lunch will be provided, and reservations are required. To attend, please contact Paul Georgia at pgeorgia@cei.org or (202) 331-2257. Include your name, telephone number, e-mail address, and institutional affiliation.

Attorneys General Threaten Lawsuit; North Carolina Approves Renewable Energy Plan

by William Yeatman on February 4, 2003

in Politics, Science

Attorneys General Threaten Lawsuit

Attorneys general from three StatesConnecticut, Massachusetts and Mainehave notified the Bush administration of their plan to sue the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency unless it classifies carbon dioxide as a pollutant under the Clean Air Act, which would allow the agency to begin regulating emissions of the gas.

In a letter to EPA administrator Christie Whitman, the attorneys general, all Democrats, warned the EPA that if the agency does not act within 60 days they will bring the suit. “We have not seen any appreciable progress on the development of a national program to address carbon dioxide emissions,” says the letter. “In seeking to protect the health and welfare of our citizens from the impacts of climate change, we are left to fall back on our available remedies available under existing law.”

The attorneys general claim that the EPA is violating federal law by not regulating CO2. “The Clean Air Act requires the EPA to take certain actions when it determines that a pollutant may cause or contribute to air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.”

The attorneys general base their argument on the administrations Climate Action Report 2002 (CAR) which was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in May 2002. They claim that the admission that climate changes “are likely due mostly to human activities,” obligates the EPA to regulate CO2. But the CAR should have never been released because it was based on the thoroughly discredited National Assessment, a report prepared by a federal advisory committee appointed by the Clinton Administration.

Marlo Lewis, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., argues that the attorneys general ignore the plain language, structure, and legislative history of the law. The AGs build their case on Section 103(g), which refers to CO2 as a “pollutant.” However, the context of that sole reference to CO2 in the Act is a discussion of “nonregulatory strategies,” and the passage concludes with the admonition that, “Nothing in this subsection shall be construed to authorize the imposition on any person of air pollution control requirements.” According to Lewis, “If nothing in that subsection gives EPA authority to impose new control requirements, then the passing reference therein to CO2 as a pollutant cannot provide such authority.”

Lewis also accused the attorneys general of trying to end run the legislative process. “They want to legislate energy taxes or their regulatory equivalent through the courts rather than allow Congress to make the law.”

The threatened lawsuit follows a letter that 11 attorneys general sent to the administration last July urging it to regulate CO2. It also follows a lawsuit against the EPA filed by three environmental groups to force the agency to regulate automotive emissions of CO2 using the same legal argument as the state attorneys general.

An industry source told Greenwire (January 31, 2003) that there is little to worry about. “If Im an EPA attorney, Im not losing any sleep over defending this lawsuit,” he said. “Of course, the issues would have to be briefed properly. But the risk of EPA losing this case, if its even litigated, is very, very low. I just think arguing that CO2 is a pollutant is too big a legal hurdle to get over.”

NC Approves Renewable Energy Plan

The North Carolina Utilities Commission approved a plan on Jan. 28 that will allow the residents of that state to purchase electricity produced from renewable sources. It is the first statewide program of its kind in the nation, according to the Charlotte Observer (January 29, 2003).

The NC Green Power program, to be launched in six months, will initially allow residential customers to buy power generated mostly from landfill gases. Wind and solar power are slated to make up 15 percent of the states electricity supply by the third year of the plan. Customers who choose to purchase electricity from renewable sources will buy it in blocks of 100 kilowatt-hours for an additional $4 per month.

Large commercial and industrial customers will pay an additional $2.50 per block of electricity and will have access to a greater variety of energy sources, including animal wastes and small hydroelectric plants. The rate premiums are meant to cover the higher costs of producing renewable electricity, but similar rate premiums in other states have proved insufficient.

Nearly every proposed source of renewable energy has its detractors, since every source of energy carries some environmental costs. The environmental group, Appalachian Voices, objected to the burning of biomass, for example, on the grounds that it produces air emissions.

“The problem is that everybody wants solar or wind power, but we dont have any,” said Karen King of Advanced Energy. Currently, North Carolina has only a couple of solar power plants and no wind power connected to the grid.

Dan Lieberman of the Center for Resource Solutions, a San Francisco-based nonprofit that certifies renewable energy programs, warns that the program will require massive marketing to be successful. “The product isnt going to sell itself,” he said.

Activities to Help Children Learn About the Global Climate from Facts, Not Fear

by William Yeatman on January 22, 2003

in Science, Students

Many children have been taught to fear the supposedly imminent arrival of global warming even though no one really knows if the world is getting hotter. While it is important to make children aware that current scientific evidence is inconclusive, it also may be helpful to put to rest some of the irrational fears of global warming. Facts, Not Fear, a guide book on teaching children about the environment by Jane Shaw and Michael Sanera, offers several suggestions.

  • First, they suggest teaching children about dinosaurs. Ask children to describe the environment the dinosaurs lived in, including the vegetation, and ask them if the world was warmer or cooler than it is now. Explain to them that at the time dinosaurs lived the atmosphere had CO2 levels that were at least 5 times greater than what we now have and that these high levels of CO2 contributed to the rich vegatation.

  • The book also suggests a field trip to a greenhouse to learn about the “greenhouse effect.” Ask the greenhouse manager to explain how the conditions in the greenhouse are controlled to help plants and ask if the greenhouse adds carbon dioxide. Many greenhouses do add CO2 because it is a vital component of photosynthesis. This can help children learn that CO2 isn’t the dangerous gas that it is often portrayed as.

  • Finally, Sanera and Shaw suggest teaching children about former predictions of a coming ice age. Have children read articles and books such as “The Ice Age Cometh?” from Time in January 31, 1994, The Cooling by Lowell Ponte, and “Brace Yourself for Another Ice Age,” from Science Digest in February of 1975.

States Seek to Regulate CO2

by William Yeatman on January 21, 2003

in Politics

The American Legislative Exchange Council has released a report on the activities of state legislatures that are seeking to regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide.

According to the report, Energy, Environment, and Economics: A Guide for State Legislators, 60 bills were introduced in 2001-2002 legislative sessions to regulate carbon dioxide as well as many resolutions and measures to classify CO2 as a pollutant. Taxpayer subsidies to pay for renewable energy and alternative fuels are also “multiplying in the States as back-door approaches to eliminate carbon-based fuels from the nations energy mix.”

Several States appear close to passing bills to regulate CO2 emissions, including Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. The report also notes that California, Oregon, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Suffolk County in New York have already regulated CO2.

The report also contains examples of model legislation that could be used to counter regulatory bills, including the Verifiable Science Act to “protect citizens from arbitrary and capricious regulations promulgated without any impetus that is justified by pertinent, ascertainable, and peer-reviewed science.” It also includes a Power Plant Siting Act to create “a single Board that functions as the permitting authority for all government approvals necessary to site a Power Plant in the State,” and a “Resolution in Opposition of Carbon Dioxide Emission Standards.”

Oklahoma state Sen. Jim Dunlap (R), ALECs 2002 national chairman, said that one of the greatest threats to the nation are the regulatory burdens on energy. He also said that ALECs goal is to provide its members from state legislatures with a cost-benefit evaluation “of the economic impact of carbon dioxide or multi-pollutant standards that may have little, if any, measurable effect on air quality or the global climate.” The report is available at ALECs website at www.alec.org.

Global Warming Exonerated in Resurgence of Malaria; CO2 Emissions May Lower Ozone and Methane Concentrations

by William Yeatman on January 21, 2003

in Science

Global Warming Exonerated in Resurgence of Malaria

“Highland malaria has returned to the tea estates of western Kenya after an absence of nearly 30 years,” begins a new study in Emerging Infectious Diseases, a journal published by the Centers for Disease Control. Many researchers have speculated that the return of this dreaded disease to the East African Highlands is yet another indicator that man is dangerously warming the planet. The new study, however, concludes that, “The results of our work do not support these conclusions.”

The study, led by Dennis Shanks at the U.S. Army Medical Research Unit in Kenya, used long-term malaria illness and total hospital admissions data (January 1966 to December 1995) from a large tea plantation in Kericho, Kenya, located in the Rift Valley highlands. The plantation covers 141 square kilometers and has employed about 50,000 people throughout the study period. The employees receive their health care from the company-operated medical system.

The mean monthly temperature and monthly total rainfall data used in the study came from a meteorological station located at the tea estates, as well as from global climatology data from a larger area of 3,025 square kilometers, which contains the area of the plantation. A secondary variable considered for the study was vapor pressure. The researchers also categorized those months deemed suitable for malaria transmission based on temperature and precipitation thresholds into a monthly suitability index.

What the researchers found was that, “During the period 1966-1995, malaria incidence increased significantly while total (malarial and other) admissions to the tea estate hospital showed no significant change. Measurements of mean monthly temperature and total monthly rainfall [at the local meteorological station] also showed no significant changes.” The study also showed that data from the larger area of study such as “Mean, maximum, and minimum monthly temperatures; precipitation; and vapor pressure all demonstrated no significant trends.” Nor when the “meteorologic data were transferred into months when malaria transmission is possible,” were there significant changes evident.

So what is the cause for the resurgence of malaria transmission in the East African highlands? The most likely culprit is resistance of the disease to the malaria drug chloroquine, especially “since all other relevant environmental and sociological factors are unchanged.” The researchers also note that travel to and from the Lake Victoria region by some of the tea estate workers “exerts an upward influence on malaria transmission in Kericho.” The study notes that similar conclusions have been reached in detailed analyses of other areas of the East African highlands that have experienced a resurgence of malaria transmission.

CO2 Emissions May Lower Ozone and Methane Concentrations

A new study in Nature, posted online in advance of publication, shows newly discovered benefits from anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The studys authors, led by Todd Rosenstiel with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, planted three cottonwood plantations of fifty trees each in the forestry section of Columbia Universitys Biosphere 2 Center in Arizona to take advantage of its controlled environment.

One of the plantations carbon dioxide concentration was maintained at 450 parts per million (ppm) while the other two were maintained at 800 and 1200 ppm respectively. What the authors found was that increased concentrations of carbon dioxide lower “isoprene emissions” from the trees leaves by 21 percent at CO2 concentrations of 800 ppm and by 41 percent at 1200 ppm. Isoprene is a highly reactive non-methane hydrocarbon, which is emitted in large quantities from trees and contributes significantly to the production of ground-level ozone.

As the study notes, the expansion of tree farms with fast-growing species “has been suggested as a way to ameliorate increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.” Objections have been raised, however, because “the continued expansion of agriforest plantations has the potential to affect significantly the oxidative behavior of the atmosphere, in turn negatively affecting local air quality.” But the new study puts that fear to rest. Not only did higher concentrations of CO2 reduce isoprene emissions, it did so while boosting biomass production by 60 to 82 percent.

Isoprene also boosts the atmospheric lifetime of methane, a greenhouse gas 21 times more powerful than CO2, by 14 percent. So increased carbon dioxide concentrations would also inhibit the negative influence of isoprene emissions on atmospheric methane. The study concludes that, “The negative air-quality impacts (that is, isoprene emissions) of proliferating agriforests may be partially offset by increases in global CO2.”

Announcement

Jesse Ausubel of the Rockefeller University will give a Cooler Heads Coalition congressional and media briefing on “Climate Change: the Known, the Unknown, the Unknowable” on Friday, February 7, from noon to 1:30 in Room 628 of the Senate Dirksen Office Building. Lunch will be provided, and reservations are required. To attend, please contact Paul Georgia at pgeorgia@cei.org or (202) 331-2257. Include your name, telephone number, e-mail address, and institutional affiliation.

Wind Power Is No Bargain For West Virginia

by William Yeatman on January 21, 2003

in Politics, Science, Small business

Glenn Schleede, the intrepid energy analyst, has done another bang-up job of identifying the weaknesses of yet another wind power project. This time his sights are set on West Virginia, and the prognosis is bleak.

One wind farm is already in operation in West Virginia, another has been approved by the Public Service Commission, and a third application is still pending. The amount of power produced from the three plants, assuming a generous 30 percent capacity factor, would equal a little over 1.6 billion kWh of electricity per year. The plants would occupy 30 to 40 square miles, yet only produce an amount of energy equal to 1.7 percent of the total amount of electricity produced in West Virginia in 2000. A new 265 MW gas-fired combined-cycle generating plant, on the other hand, would produce slightly more electricity on just a few acres.

Not only will these wind farms produce paltry amounts of electricity, the electricity produced will be of lower value due to the intermittent, volatile, and unpredictable nature of wind-generated electricity. To offset these characteristics and maintain the reliability of the grid, they will have to be backed up with dispatchable generating units. “Units serving this backup role must be on line (connected to the grid and producing electricity) and running below their peak capacity and efficiency, or in a spinning reserve mode (i.e., connected to the grid and synchronized but not putting electricity into the grid),” according to Schleede.

Electricity from wind farms also increases the cost of electricity by adding to the burden of keeping the grid in balance and makes it difficult to keep transmission lines from being overloaded. Moreover, mountaintop wind farms require additional transmission capacity, which will only be used between 25 to 35 percent of the time due to wind powers low capacity factors. All of these costs are part of the true cost of wind power, but are usually ignored when the projects are being sold.

Wind power receives generous subsidies from both federal and state governments. The subsidies available to the West Virginia wind farms include federal accelerated depreciation (5 years as opposed to 20 years for other electric generating facilities), production tax credits, a reduction in the West Virginia Corporate Net Income Tax (due to accelerated depreciation), an 87.5 to 93.75 percent reduction in West Virginias Business and Occupation Tax, and a 91.67 percent reduction in West Virginia property taxes.

These subsidies shift the tax burden to other taxpayers and electric customers. As Schleede notes, “The total of $69.7 million in tax liability that could be avoided by the wind farm in the first year, as well as the liability avoided in subsequent years represents a tax burden that would be shifted to remaining taxpayers.”

EIA Releases U.S. Data on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

by William Yeatman on January 7, 2003

in Blog

The U.S. experienced a significant decline in greenhouse gas emissions during 2001, according to data released by the Department of Energys Energy Information Administration. Emissions totaled 1,883 million metric tons carbon equivalent in 2001, a fall of 1.2 percent from 2000. This represents the largest percentage decrease in the U.S. during the 1990 to 2001 period. The average growth rate of emissions since 1990 has been 1 percent per year, and 2001s decline is the first since 1991, which saw emissions fall 0.6 percent.

EIA attributes the decline to a combination of factors:

  • A reduction in economic growth from 3.8 percent in 2000 to 0.3 percent in 2001.

  • A 4.4 percent reduction in manufacturing output that lowered industrial emissions.

  • Warmer winter weather that decreased demand for heating fuels.

  • A drop in electricity demand and coal-fired power generation.

Greenhouse gas emissions were still well above 1990 levels (11.9 percent), which is the baseline from which the U.S. would have to reduce its emissions by seven percent under the Kyoto Protocol. The report notes, however, that emissions rose more slowly in the 1990s than the average annual growth rate of the population (1.2 percent), primary energy consumption (1.2 percent), electric power generation (1.9 percent), or gross domestic product (2.9 percent).

Carbon dioxide, which accounts for 84 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, fell 1.1 percent to 1,579 million metric tons in 2001, according to EIA. The report is available at www.eia.doe.gov.

Antarctic Ice Sheet not in Danger from Global Warming; New Findings Lead to New Predictions; No Flooding Trends in the U.S.

by William Yeatman on January 7, 2003

in Science

Antarctic Ice Sheet not in Danger from Global Warming

Fears that the Western Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) is experiencing accelerated declines due to global warming are unfounded, according to a new study in the Jan. 3 issue of Science. A team of scientists, led by John O. Stone with the Quaternary Research Center and Department of Earth and Space Sciences at the University of Washington, found that deglaciation of the WAIS began at least 10,000 years ago and that the rate of melting has remained constant until the present time.

Robert P. Ackert, Jr., of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, notes in a perspective on the research that only recently have scientists been able to determine conclusively that, “In large and critical areas, the ice sheet surface is lowering and ice volume is decreasing.” This has caused concern because even a 1 percent decrease in ice volume would raise sea level by 5 centimeters and could eventually raise sea level by as much as 5 meters.

“Are we witnessing the early stages of rapid ice sheet collapse, with potential near-term impacts on the worlds coastlines?” asks Ackert. “To answer this question, we must view the new short term measurements in the context of recent ice sheet history and ask whether the observed changes are unusual compared with those of the last 10,000 years. Stone et al. provide a partial answer by reconstructing the recent history of a previously largely unexamined sector of the WAIS.”

Stone et al. found that, “Surface exposure ages of glacial deposits in the Ford Ranges of western Marie Byrd Land indicate continuous thinning of the West Antarctic ice sheet by more than 700 meters near the coast throughout the past 10,000 years. Deglaciation lagged the disappearance of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere by thousands of years and may still be under way. These results provide further evidence that parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are on a long term trajectory of decline. West Antarctic melting contributed water to the oceans in the late Holocene and may continue to do so in the future.”

Ackert notes that, “Recent ice sheet dynamics appear to be dominated by the ongoing response to deglacial forcing thousands of years ago, rather than by recent anthropogenic warming or sea level rise.” On the whole, the WAIS has thinned at a consistent rate of 2.5 to 9 cm/year over the last 9300 years. Ackert also points out that contrary to prior assumptions, “The results suggest that the WAIS is not in equilibrium with present environmental conditions and has been thinning for the last 10,000 years.”

This means that predicting the future behavior of the ice sheet is significantly more difficult than simply building “quasi-steady state models that reproduce the current ice sheet and then perturb them with possible climate or sea-level forcing.” Instead, scientists must use “dynamic models that reproduce the deglacial historyas a baseline.”

New Findings Lead to New Predictions

What happens when you feed real world data into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes climate models? That is the question answered in a new study in the most recent issue of Climate Research. The researchers, led by Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist at the University of Virginia, found that if the IPCCs model is applied to scientific findings that have appeared since the release of its Third Assessment Report, the resulting predictions are significantly less frightening.

The researchers used the IPCCs six major storylines, or projections about population and economic growth, and energy use, and incorporated assumptions that agree with recent scientific developments:

  • Research showing that black carbon aerosols offset the cooling affect of sulfate aerosols that scientists had assumed was masking anthropogenic warming.

  • The iris effect, where high-level tropical cloudiness diminishes in response to temperature increases, allowing the surface to cool, thereby offsetting anthropogenic warming.

  • Adjustments to the rate of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, from a previously assumed exponential increase, to a constant increase as has been observed for the last 25 years.

  • Research showing that the carbon cycle does not intensify in response to higher temperatures.

Plugging this new empirical data into the models, the researchers found that projected warming over the next 100 years falls in the range of 1.0 to 1.6 degrees C, instead of the IPCCs projection of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C.

The study concludes that the upper bound of the new projection is the most likely outcome. This is due to the fact that nearly all climate models show human-induced warming to be constant, and a simple linear extrapolation from those results leads to about 1.5 degrees warming over the next 100 years. This is also borne out in the observed temperature data.

The study also notes that the lower range of its projection is also possible due to the well-known fact that the temperature response to carbon-forcing is logarithmic, or decreases as atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increases. Atmospheric carbon dioxide data “indicate that any exponential rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations is weak at best. Consequently the current linear warming may in fact be the adjustment to exponential growth in CO2 that took place prior to 1975 [emphasis in original].”

Regardless of whether warming will continue to be linear or damp off in the next 100 years, the study concludes that there is little to fear from global warming.

No Flooding Trends in the U.S.

A new study in Geophysical Research Letters (December 24, 2002) finds that fears about an increased hydrological cycle (more flooding) from global warming may be overblown. The researchers, Greg McCabe and David Wolock with the U.S. Geological Survey, analyzed the annual maximum, median and minimum streamflow values from 400 gauging stations throughout the United States from 1941 to 1999. What they found was that after 1970 there is a clear trend of higher average streamflow across the U.S., which is more pronounced in the median and low flow cases than in the high flow case.

They also note, however, that there is a definite jump in 1970 in streamflow levels. McCabe and Wolock then looked at all time periods of all possible durations with a minimum of 10 years and found that there were trends in all time periods that included 1970, but few trends in time periods that do not include that year. In other words, trends in streamflow are rare before and after 1970. The abrupt change in 1970 gives a false impression of a longterm upward trend in streamflow.

Finally, most of the trends are concentrated in the median and low flow categories. Only 60 sites saw trends in the annual high flow category, while 202 showed increases in the low flow category. What this means is that there has been an increase in rainfall during the times of year when water is in short supply, but that there has been no increase in flooding, a rather happy result.

Etc.

Many parts of the world are gripped in some of the most frigid and snowy weather experienced in a long time or ever. Beijing, China had 6 consecutive days of snowfall at Christmas time, the longest consecutive snowfall in that city in 128 years. Chinas largest desert, Taklimakan, received 14 centimeters of snow over several consecutive days.

“Taklimakan has had snow every year since the Xinjiang Regional Meteorological Bureau set up a monitoring station in the desert in the 1990s, but the recorded precipitation has been light. It is rare for the desert to have such a heavy snow,” said Lu Guoying, an expert at the regional meteorological bureau. In northern India and Bangladesh, over 250 people have died from exposure to the cold, as temperatures plummeted to well below freezing.

Even more surprising, people are dying in traditionally cooler climates where a combination of record cold and inadequate energy supplies is taking their toll. Record low temperatures in Norway have wreaked all sorts of havoc for its people. Much of the transit system has been frozen out of service, and electricity prices have skyrocketed as demand for home heating is outstripping inadequate electricity supplies.

Unfortunately, several elderly citizens had to be admitted to the hospital with dangerously low body temperatures. At least three have died from the cold after being found in unheated apartments. According to the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten (January 6, 2003), “Many thrifty, elderly residents have grown worried by reports of record high electricity prices. Too many have opted to turn their heat down to avoid expensive utility bills.” Norway has not built a new power plant in ten years due to environmental politics, according to Still Waiting for Greenhouse (www.john-daly.com).

Many places in Finland have also reached record lows this winter, and the Baltic Seas ice cover is more extensive than it has been in decades. The ice is also 5 to 20 centimeters thicker than usual. According to Helsingin Sanomat (January 8, 2002) “Experts say that the whole Baltic Sea could freeze over all the way to the Straits of Denmark, for the first time since 1948.” Finland is also experiencing shortfalls in electricity supply and has had to import almost 2,000 MW of electricity from Russia and Sweden to keep the lights on and the heaters running.

Finally, 40 ships have been trapped in the ice in the Gulf of Finland in Russia. Moscow reached temperatures as low as -37 degrees C, and as many as 23,000 people are without heat as antiquated systems have broken down.

Cap-and-Trade – Its Baaack!

by William Yeatman on January 7, 2003

in Politics

Senators John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.) plan to introduce a bill that would employ a cap-and-trade scheme to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. On Wednesday, the Commerce Committee held hearings, chaired by McCain, at which Lieberman testified about the bill.

The draft bills targets and timetables are a little less onerous than those required under the Kyoto Protocol, but would still present a significant challenge. It would require reductions in all greenhouse gases to 2000 levels by 2010 and to 1990 levels by 2016. All sectors of the economy would be included.

Senator Lieberman testified that one of the major benefits of the bill would be to provide “regulatory certainty” for businesses that are in limbo on what Congress might do. But the bill itself offers no comfort to businesses who think this will buy them certainty. For example, the bill states that the tradable allowances that would be available to businesses are “not a property right, and nothing in this title or any other provision of the law limits the authority of the United States to terminate or limit a tradable allowance.”

The bill also requires the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere to re-evaluate the appropriateness of the allowances established under the bill every two years, and to review the level of emissions reductions established by the bill in 2008 and 2012, and to submit a report to Congress along with legislative recommendations for modification of the level. So much for regulatory certainty!

Lieberman claims that the bill is “the first realistic U.S. proposal to deal with the problem” of global warming. But it is well known that even if the entire world complied with the Kyoto Protocol, it would have virtually no effect on the climate. The McCain-Lieberman proposal is simply irrelevant. Lieberman apparently thinks differently, however. In a comment to the committee, he noted that the year 2002 was the second warmest in recorded history and probably would have been warmer had it not been for the fact that manufacturing output has dropped in the U.S. (see below). Apparently Lieberman believes that an insignificant thing like a small drop in manufacturing output in one country has immediate effects on the climate.

Another witness at the hearing was Randy Overbey, President of Alcoas Energy Business. His company wants greenhouse gas credits for reducing their emissions of perfluorocarbon, an extremely powerful greenhouse gas. “These emissions usually occur when there is an interruption to the electrolytic smelting process, known as the anode effect,” said Overbey.

Alcoa has reduced these emissions by 56 percent over the last decade. But why should a company get valuable credits for something it would have done anyway? Reducing interruptions to manufacturing processes saves the company money. Alcoa is just one of many business enterprises that will be trying to double dip at taxpayer or consumer expense under McCain-Lieberman.

On a more positive note, Dr. James R. Mahoney, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, testified about the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations strategic plan on climate research. In response to questions about the need to move forward with policy, he pointed out that there are still major uncertainties in the science and that Congress should avoid leaping into policies that would inflict serious economic harm on U.S. citizens. He also pointed out that the Kyoto Protocol would cost the U.S. as much as $400 billion per year.

Sen. Ron Wyden, (D-Oreg.) attacked the administrations emphasis on science and said that it looks bad for the U.S. to be dragging its feet when Europe and other allies are going forward with Kyoto. Mahoney countered that it is much easier for Europe to comply with Kyoto. Italys population, for instance, will fall over Kyotos compliance period and Germanys population has leveled off, similar population trends are common throughout Europe. The U.S. population on the other hand is still growing.

Mahoney also explained to the Senator that the administration has a responsibility to weigh many concerns and issues, not just global warming and that those decisions must be made on the basis of good information, hence the strategic plan on global warming research.

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