Electric Vehicles Still not Feasible; Chinas Growth is Killing the Bicycle

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) mandated in 1990 that ten percent of all cars and trucks on the road must be Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) by the year 2003. At the time, it claimed that the mandate could be met using electric vehicles that would cost only $1,350 more than gas-powered vehicles of similar size.

According to an article by Tom Austin, an automotive engineer and former CARB executive officer, CARBs dreams have come crashing down in the face of reality. Consultants hired by CARB have determined that electric vehicles will cost about $20,000 more than comparably-sized gas-powered vehicles. The limited driving range of electric vehicles is also a major drawback to most motorists, noted the consultants. Thus to meet the mandate, a subsidy of $30,000 per vehicle would be required.

To cover the subsidy, a surcharge of $3,000 per vehicle would be needed on the price of new gas-powered vehicles. The surcharge could be lowered to $1,250 under a recent change in the regulation, which allows the percentage of ZEVs to fall to 4 percent if makers of gas-powered automobiles significantly reduce auto emissions and provide a 150,000-mile warranty on their emission control systems. But, notes Austin, the cost of gas-powered vehicles would rise by several hundred dollars per vehicle due to the additional pollution control equipment and the longer warranty.

The only other option available to automakers, says Austin, to "further reduce the cost of complying with the ZEV mandate is for them to produce electric vehicles that are little more than glorified golf carts. The gasoline vehicle travel displaced by such vehicles would be negligible and CARBs regulation would become a laughingstock."

Finally, Austin notes that, CARBs own analysis shows that the regulation will have almost no effect on environmental goals such as improved air quality or preventing global warming (Sacramento Bee, September 24, 2000).

Chinas Growth is Killing the Bicycle

Beijing, China, the city of bicycles, is changing. Commuters are abandoning the human-powered two-wheeler for more convenient and more comfortable transportation taxis and buses.

"I take buses and taxis," said Zui, a Web site designer. "I dont even know how to ride a bicycle." Most mornings Zui cannot find a seat on the packed bus but he doesnt mind. "At least the bus is air-conditioned," he said.

The Seattle Times (October 4, 2000) explains why bicycles are on they way out. "Increasingly, young Chinese are not even bothering to learn to ride bikes, because growing wealth has unleashed a plethora of transportation choices, public and private.

"With the crumbling of the old socialist state-owned industries and their adjoining housing complexes, displaced by private companies and the wildfire growth of private apartment blocks, commuting distances have grown dramatically. In Beijing, a city of 12.6 million people, there are more than 167,000 buses, both city-owned and private mini-buses, along with 69,000 taxis."

It sounds like Chinese citizens need a good tongue-lashing from Al Gore for making choices that contribute to global warming and urban sprawl, and which make their lives better.