Where's the party?

Preliminary data indicate 2004 likely will register as the fourth-warmest year in the worlds surface temperature record. Yet despite all the gloom-and-doom scenarios, we havent experienced an all-time record-setter since the big El Nio back in 1998. Our planet may be warming, but not at a torrid clip.

     If global climate really were to respond the way climate models project it should, the warmest year on record would be announced every other year or so after natural variation in annual average temperatures was factored in. But the warmest year designation only is proclaimed every five years or so. At that frequency, earths climate appears to be warming at a rate somewhere near the low end of the range of estimates hypothesized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC projects a temperature rise somewhere between 1.4C and 5.8C by 2100. The upper end of that range is a result of the IPCC researchers climate models routinely being fed extreme emissions scenarios that result in an extreme rise in global temperature.

     Another indicator that global warming is an under-achiever is that the overall warming trend since 1976 has been 0.17C per decade. Things began to warm back then after 30-plus years of cooling a trend that prompted a mid-1970s fear we were plunging into an imminent Ice Age. There is no evidence the trend since 1976 is picking up despite claims things are getting worse at an ever-increasing rate (see Figure 1). A rudimentary calculation reveals the IPCC low-end warming rate to be 0.14C per decade with its upper-end 0.58C. Obviously, we are experiencing something akin to the lower rate.

This should be cause for celebration! If we cant stop the warming no matter how hard we try (and we cant) and we are pretty much stuck with the fossil-fueled energy infrastructure we have, then we should be thankful things only appear to be warming up at a relatively slow rate. If you dont feel especially thankful and are convinced there are alternative means to energize the needs of 6.5 billion people, thats fine. We celebrate your optimism and idealism. Happy New Year!

But heres our scenario: If the past three decades are any indication (we believe they are), then earths climate will continue its modest warming. In time, human dependence on fossil fuels will run its course and well move on to other sources of energy and the environmental challenges that inevitably will accompany their use. Global average temperature will be a bit higher than now as will agricultural productivity and average human life span. So heres to realism, pragmatism, and the fourth-warmest year on record 2004!

 

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