GlobalWarming.org

On March 20, 2000, The Independent, a British newspaper, reported that “Snowfalls are just a thing of the past.” Global warming was simply making the UK too warm for heavy snowfalls. The column quotes Dr. David Viner of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia — yes, the epicenter of what would become the Climategate scandal — as saying that within a few years snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event.” Indeed, Viner opined, “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”

Similarly, David Parker, at the UK’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, said that eventually British children could have only “virtual” experience of snow via movies and the Internet.

Well, last week another British newspaper, the Daily Mail, reported “The Coldest December since records began as temperatures plummet to minus 10C bringing travel chaos across Britain.” Here’s a snippet from the article (also excerpted by Wesley J. Smith in First Things):

Swathes of Britain skidded to a halt today as the big freeze returned – grounding flights, closing rail links and leaving traffic at a standstill. And tonight the nation was braced for another 10 in of snow and yet more sub-zero temperatures – with no let-up in the bitterly cold weather for at least a month, forecasters have warned. The Arctic conditions are set to last through the Christmas and New Year bank holidays and beyond and as temperatures plummeted to -10c (14f) the Met Office said this December was ‘almost certain’ to become the coldest since records began in 1910.

Meanwhile, back in the USA, the lead item in Google News is a Bloomberg story, “Snow Blankets US East Coast, Stranding Travelers.”  Bloomberg reports that, “New York City’s Central Park had 20 inches (51 centimeters) of snow by 8 a.m., the most for the month in 62 years.” This was “the most snow in the park for any December since 1948, the agency’s website showed.”

As in the UK, the record-breaking snowfall is disrupting transportation, keeping travelers snowbound and delaying Santa’s deliveries. It’s also downing power lines and turning off the Christmas lights. Some highlights:

• “More than 6,000 flights were canceled in the region since yesterday as airports closed.”
• “The day after Christmas is one of the five busiest shopping days of the year, and it may take retailers two weeks to capture sales lost yesterday,” an industry analyst told Bloomberg.
• “NJ Transit, which transports about 170,000 commuters to and from New York City daily, suspended bus service as of 8:30 p.m. yesterday, according to a statement.”
• “Four hundred subway passengers were aboard an A train that was stuck in Queens for more than six hours, until it could be pushed to a station by another train. The Coney Island area was without subway service.”  
• “Consolidated Edison Inc. reported there were 6,167 customers in Queens, New York, and 1,811 in Westchester County without power. “
• “National Grid Plc, which provides electricity in New York and Massachusetts, was reporting power outages at 14 sites throughout New York and Massachusetts affecting about 29,727 homes and businesses. The largest was in Norfolk, Massachusetts, where 10,902 customers were without power.”

As my colleague Heritage Foundation economist David Kreutzer observed at a panel discussion, winter is the biggest climate-related threat to public health and welfare!

Britain has had three snowy winters in a row, and this year’s Snowmageddon USA follows last year’s Snowpocalypse. Despite global warming, it seems, our children may never enjoy either Florida’s balmy weather in New York and Boston or Mediterranean “liveability” in the British isles.

The corn lobby defeated bipartisan efforts this year to remove two of ethanol’s political privileges, the 45¢ per gallon blender’s tax credit and the 54¢ per gallon protective tariff against imported Brazilian sugarcane ethanol.

However, roughly 60 organizations from across the political spectrum joined forces to challenge King Corn, and many are resolved to work together to carry on the fight next year.

Perhaps even more important, ethanol-subsidy foes now occupy the moral high ground. The Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune, left-leaning stalwarts that usually applaud every green fad and cheer every government intervention in the economy, all say it’s time to end to the blender’s credit. Politically-correct Time Magazine calls federal ethanol policy “the clean energy scam.” Even Al Gore acknowledges that his previous support for ethanol subsidies was a “mistake” undertaken to win the support of corn farmers in the Iowa presidential primary.

Aside from corn farmers, ethanol distillers, and their mouthpieces in Congress, hardly any informed person disputes that corn ethanol does squat for U.S. energy security, inflates grain prices, shortchanges consumers at the pump, contributes to air and water pollution, and (on a life-cycle basis) emits more carbon dioxide than the gasoline it replaces.

Among the “progressive” organs to turn a skeptical eye on ethanol is National Public Radio, which this week ran a three-part series on the topic. 

In the first segment, Prof. David Swenson at Iowa State University, in the heart of corn country, takes issue with industry ads claiming that ethanol has created “nearly 400,000 jobs.” The actual figure, Swenson says, is “in the neighborhood of 30,000-35,000 jobs.”  

But doesn’t ethanol help insulate us from the rollercoaster of global crude oil prices by providing an alternative to gasoline?

Quite the reverse, explains Iowa State University Prof. Bruce Babcock in NPR’s second segment. Precisely because ethanol competes with gasoline, “we’ve now hitched the price of corn, inextricably linked the price of corn to the price of crude oil.” And because corn competes for land and customers with other grains, is widely used in food processing, and is a key livestock feed, the price of food is now linked to the price of crude oil. NPR comments: “With corn prices more closely tied to oil prices, when the price of gas goes up, it raises the demand for ethanol. That means consumers will feel it in two places: at the pump and on the dinner table.”

EPA recently approved the sale of E-15 — motor fuel blended with 15% ethanol, which contains 50% more ethanol than the E-10 misleadingly sold at service stations as “regular gasoline.” Growth Energy, a leading ethanol industry group, claims that consumers should be happy to fill their tanks with E-15 because that’s what NASCAR drivers now use. An obvious non-sequiter. A diet that’s good for a professional football player or a professional marathon runner is not necessarily good for a couch potato or even a weekend warrior.

To cut through the hype, NPR’s third segment interviews Dan Edmunds, director of vehicle testing at the auto research Website Edmunds.Com. Edmunds drove a flexible-fueled vehicle from San Diego to Las Vegas and back, first using E-10 and then using E-85 (motor fuel blended with 85% ethanol). He made the round trip with 36.5 gallons of gasoline. On E-85 it took 50 gallons — 37% more fuel to go the same distance. 

Public policy change typically requires odd-couple (“Baptist-Bootlegger“) alliances — a convergence of ideologically-motivated activists with bottom line-motivated business interests. That’s why demoting or even dethroning King Corn is now a real possibility. Ethanol’s fall from ideological grace among green activists and the mainstream media occurs at a time when powerful industry groups are either in open revolt against the King or are resisting his demands for additional privileges.

Rebels include the beef, poultry, hog, and dairy industries. They advocate repeal of the ethanol tariff and tax credit because those policies raise the price of corn, their basic feedstock, making them less competitive.

Earlier this week, several major U.S. oil refiners — direct beneficiaries of the blender’s credit, BTW — said they would not distribute E-15 despite EPA’s authorization to sell the fuel. As reported in the Wall Street Journal, Valero Energy Corp., Marathon Oil Corp., and Tesoro Corp. contend that E-15  could harm older car and truck engines and void their warranties.

The Journal also noted that the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, which represents General Motors, Ford, Toyota, and other auto companies “filed a petition with a U.S. appellate court in Washington on Monday challenging the EPA’s approval for the sale of gasoline containing 15% ethanol.”

The lame duck Congress renewed the ethanol tariff and tax credit for another year. But if Congress had debated the issue in 2009, the extension likely would have been for five years. That reflects the growing strength of the bipartisan, left-right, industry-activist anti-subsidy coalition.

A factor that should strengthen rebel forces — the incoming Congress will include many more fiscal conservatives than the one that just adjourned.

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa’s green energy plan will increase utility bills 3%-8% annually for twenty years, according to the LA Department of Water and Power. Currently, Los Angeles gets almost 50% of its electricity from out-of-state coal power plants, which is the primary reason that its ratepayers avoided the price spikes that plagued California during the 2000 electricity crisis, but the Mayor’s energy plan would have the Department of Water and Power disinvest from its Nevada coal generating facility and replace this power with expensive renewable energy.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) version of the tax deal agreed between President Barack Obama and senior House and Senate negotiators reportedly includes a one year renewal of the 45 cents per gallon ethanol tax credit and the 54 cents per gallon ethanol tariff.  Several other giveaways to renewable energy special interests are included in the Senate version of the package.  They include the multi-billion-dollar Section 1603 grant program for renewable energy projects (such as wind turbines), an extension of the bio-diesel tax credit, and a bunch of credits for energy-efficient appliances, energy-efficient new homes, and the 30% credit for installing E-85 pumps at gas stations.  All these boondoggles add up to many billions of dollars of wasted taxpayer dollars lavished on big business special interests.  The result is higher energy prices for consumers.

However, it is not clear that the tax deal is going to be enacted.  House Democrats led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) have voted to oppose it. Unless Pelosi schedules a House vote, it won’t come up this year.  It appears the White House was taken by surprise by this House Democratic revolt against their own President, but I expect the White House is twisting a lot of arms to get them to change their minds.  If the tax hikes take effect on January 1st and it’s up to the 112th Congress to repeal them, then I expect the new Republican majority in the House will want a significantly different package.  My advice is not to bet against ethanol subsidies.