The economic track record of the current administration and Congress is not a good one. Unemployment remains stubbornly high at nearly 10 percent, and many believe federal missteps prolonged the recession and are weakening the recovery. While things like ill-advised spending, Obamacare, and looming tax hikes are doing damage nationwide, a number of other federal measures have particularly burdened the American West, the region suffering with the highest unemployment rate in the country. The Senate and House Western Caucuses’ recent study, “The War on Western Jobs,” documents the host of environmental policies that have targeted the sectors crucial to the economies of Western states — especially energy production but also mining, logging, farming, and ranching.

It is important to note that the federal government controls the economic fate of western states to a greater extent than any other part of the country. The lands comprising 12 western states (Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, California, and Alaska) are nearly half owned by the federal government. More so than other regions, job losses in the West can be traced to federal policies.

The Obama administration’s attack on Western energy jobs began within weeks of taking power when the Department of the Interior revoked 77 oil and gas leases in Utah and halted new oil shale projects in Colorado. By the end of 2009, the administration had issued fewer onshore energy leases than in any year under Bush or Clinton, and the pace thus far in 2010 is no better. Throughout the West, vast energy-containing federal lands are currently off-limits, and the administration and Congress have sought to restrict access to millions of additional acres. Even where energy leasing is not explicitly prohibited, Obama’s regulators have imposed red tape and bureaucratic delays that have substantially limited it.

Beyond oil and gas, the administration has all but declared war on coal mining, which is particularly vital to Wyoming and Montana. The Environmental Protection Agency’s global warming regulations as well as many other anti-coal measures (including Boiler MACT, combustion byproducts, new National Ambient Air Quality Standards, others) bode ill for the future of western coal.

The threat of new energy taxes has only added to the chilling effect on Western investment in energy projects.

In addition to the impact on energy production, the federal government’s excessive ownership of land — as well as intrusive measures like the Endangered Species Act that target private property — is posing growing problems for other industries. Despite the West’s mineral wealth, mining jobs continue to decline. The same is true of logging. Farmers and ranchers also face a host of costly hurdles.

Instead of providing regulatory relief that could turn the region’s economy around, Congress has proposed new constraints like the sweeping Clean Water Restoration Act. This bill would essentially federalize land-use decisions on any property containing wetlands, and compounds the threat by defining wetlands so expansively so as to include almost everywhere. And the Obama Department of the Interior and Department of Agriculture’s Forest Service have issued new agency guidance for federal lands, which under the name of addressing global warming would further restrict access.

Granted, Washington’s control over western lands and the misuse of that control to curtail economic activity is not a new phenomenon, but the current administration and Congress have taken it to a new level.

The West’s economic pain has not been justified by environmental gain. Quite the contrary, Uncle Sam turns out to be a lousy landlord. For example, the forest fires that have become common in Western lands in recent years have mostly originated on federal lands, and not on privately-held forests which tend to be better managed against such risks. A less-intrusive federal approach could deliver both economic and environmental benefits.

The next Congress should have a long list of reforms on its agenda. The Western Caucuses’ report spells out what needs to be addressed to get the American West back on the path to prosperity.

Announcements

Cambridge Energy Research Associates have just published an important study on the competitiveness of America’s petroleum industry titled “Fiscal Fitness.”  You can find it here:

The Washington Examiner has been running a big series this week on “Big Green” featuring many articles on a wide variety of topics.

The Clapham Group and Roadside Attractions invite you to a private preview of the controversial new film, “Cool It” next Tuesday at 4 PM at the Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002. Click here to RSVP

The Senate and House Western Caucuses have just released a report on “The War on Western Jobs.”

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee’s Minority Staff this week issued a report on “The EPA’s Anti-Industrial Policy.”

In the News

Interior Department’s Other Drilling Moratorium
William Yeatman, Politico Energy Arena, 1 October 2010

Peanuts, Crackerjacks, and Elitist Transportation
Henry Payne, Planet Gore, 1 October 2010

Top Science Body Cools on Global Warming
Graham Lloyd & Matthew Franklin, The Australian, 1 October 2010

The Sorry Green Giant
Jonathan Adler, National Review Online, 1 October 2010

International Cap-and-Trade Taxation: US Beware!
Matthew Sinclair, MasterResource.org, 30 September 2010

UK Renewable Energy Production Falls for 2nd Time
Juliette Jowit, Guardian, 30 September 2010

Where EPA is Public Enemy #1
Robert James Bidinotto, American Spectator, 30 September 2010

New EPA Rules Will Cost More than 800,000 Jobs
Hans Bader, GlobalWarming.org, 28 September 2010

Electric Cars Aren’t Going To Save Us
Walter Russell Mead, American Interest, 28 September 2010

News You Can Use

What We Are Up Against

In an apparent effort to be witty, the alarmist advocacy group 10:10, which describes itself as “a global campaign to cut carbon 10% a year starting in 2010,” produced and posted a revolting video that features blowing up anyone who disagrees, including school children. Although the disgusting video was soon replaced on the 10:10 website with an apology “to anybody we have offended,” the extremist message was clear: You don’t get with the program, you get exterminated. For more, click here and here.

Global Warming Policy Reaches America’s Kitchens

Ben Lieberman

On September 27th, the Department of Energy issued its proposed new energy efficiency standard for refrigerators. Buried in the agency’s analysis is its prediction that the stringent new rule will be a money loser for a majority of consumers-that is, the higher purchase price of refrigerators meeting the new energy use limits won’t be earned back by the reduction in electric bills. DOE nonetheless justifies this anti-consumer regulation by including “the social cost of carbon” and calculating that “the estimated value of the CO2 emissions reductions” makes it all worth it.

Inside the Beltway

Myron Ebell

Senate and House Adjourn until after the Election

Having passed almost nothing since returning from the August recess, the House and Senate adjourned this week after agreeing to a continuing resolution to fund the federal government through 3rd December.  The Congress has not sent a single appropriations bill to the President so far this year for Fiscal Year 2011, which begins today, 1st October.  The Senate and House plan to return the week of 15th November to take up the appropriations bills and possibly a number of other bills on a wide variety of topics.  One bill that could reach the Senate floor in a lame-duck session is the Bingaman-Brownback renewable electricity standard bill, S. 3813.  Four Republicans and 28 Democrats are now co-sponsoring the bill, which would require that electric utilities provide at least 15% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2021.

Salazar Announces Tough New Rules for Offshore Deepwater Drilling

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar on Thursday announced that there would be tough new safety rules on offshore drilling that would have to be complied with fully by existing operations before new drilling permits would be issued.  In a dull speech at the Smithsonian Institution’s Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Salazar hit the standard Obama Administration themes, including the pledge to win the race with China for clean energy technologies.  It amazes me that the idea that there is such a race has been repeated so often that it is now accepted as given.  It would be news to the Chinese.  China is in a race with the U. S., and they are winning it.  It is the race for abundant and affordable conventional energy.

While China is now installing nearly as many windmills every year as the U. S., they are constructing at least twenty times’ as many coal-fired power plants.  About 80% of China’s electricity comes from burning coal, which is why the wind turbine and solar panel manufacturers are closing factories here and in the EU and building new ones in China.  The cost of manufacturing anything depends primarily on the costs of capital, labor, and natural resources-and usually the most important natural resource component is energy.  Assuming comparable capital costs, China has lower energy costs as well as lower labor costs than the U. S.  If the U. S. wishes to remain competitive with China and insists on using higher-cost energy, then the only way to do it is to lower labor costs dramatically.  The future that the Obama Administration is promoting will require low wages in this country-that is, if there are any manufacturing jobs left.

Landrieu Takes on the White House over Gulf Drilling Moratorium

Senator Mary Landrieu, Democrat of Louisiana, is doing everything she can to fight the Interior Department’s continuing moratorium on new drilling permits in the Gulf.  She placed a hold last week on the nomination of Jacob Lew to be Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget and announced this week that she will block a vote on the Senate floor to confirm Lew until the Obama Administration starts issuing drilling permits again.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs called Landrieu’s action “sad” and “outrageous.”  Landrieu responded that it was outrageous that the Administration didn’t care about the thousands of people in the Gulf who were losing their jobs, whom she called hostages.  Michael R. Bromwich, the director of the Interior Department’s new Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement, said, “There’s no chance that we’ll lift it sooner because of political pressure of any sort.”

Used Car Prices are Going Up

Recently, some environmental pressure groups suggested that the next round of increases in Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for cars and light trucks should be 60 miles per gallon by 2025.  Today, the Obama Administration’s Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Transportation told the press that they were considering requiring increases of between 3 and 6 percent per year in fuel economy after the 35.5 miles per gallon average for cars and light trucks goes into effect in 2016.  Six percent per year between 2017 and 2025 would get to 62 miles per gallon by 2025.

The 35.5 miles per gallon standard by 2016 is going to cause a major car crash.  If the manufacturers somehow manage to produce a lot of cars that meet the target, it is unlikely that many consumers are going to want to buy them.  The automakers will be forced to sell their tiny cars very cheaply and to raise prices on larger cars dramatically in order to meet the 35.5 mpg average.  This is a recipe for bankrupting all the automakers and for a second bailout that will makes the taxpayer bailout of GM and Chrysler look cheap.  To then raise the standard to 60 miles per gallon by 2025 is sheer fantasy.

The Cooler Heads Digest is the weekly e-mail publication of the Cooler Heads Coalition. For the latest news and commentary, check out the Coalition’s website, www.globalwarming.org.

Another Energy Tax: The RES

by Daren Bakst on September 29, 2010

in Blog

Since cap and trade legislation looks like it is dead, many in Congress are still adamant about imposing an energy tax on Americans.

Senator Bingaman (D-NM), along with a bipartisan group of Senators, is pushing a renewable energy standard (RES).  This particular RES mandates that utility companies generate 11 percent of their electricity from high-cost and unreliable renewable sources such as solar and wind power.

Consumers, of course, pay for these higher energy costs on their electricity bills.

Since the massive subsidies for solar and wind power haven’t been enough to generate demand for renewable energy, Congress wants to mandate that Americans buy renewable electricity, not unlike individual health care mandates.

It is a bit troubling that Republicans, who for the most part, have been opposed to cap and trade, don’t seem to get that this also is a massive energy tax.

Some of the legislators may actually think that forcing Americans to buy renewable energy will help with energy independence.  However, this is a major fallacy and demonstrates an unfortunate lack of understanding regarding energy.

In 2008, electricity generation accounted for only about 1 percent of all petroleum consumption in the United States (Calculation: Petroleum used for electricity generation/total petroleum consumption in the U.S.).  In other words, changing our electricity mix will have no impact on energy independence.

The RES in many ways is like a cap and trade bill and the ObamaCare bill rolled into one.  There is an energy tax.  There are mandates to purchase a service.  Finally, the federal government is ignoring state rights and imposing its wishes on the states.

This issue needs to get on everyone’s radar screen who is interested in freedom.

New EPA rules will cost more than 800,000 jobs, probably far more, according to a newly released congressional report.  That includes the EPA’s first set of rules “for Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” and “new standards for commercial and industrial boilers.”  Indeed, the boiler rules alone could cost close to 800,000 jobs.

This shouldn’t be a surprise.  In 2008, President Obama admitted that under his greenhouse gas regulations, people’s utility bills would “skyrocket,” and coal-fired power plants would go “bankrupt.”  The EPA’s own internal documents show that the administration’s global warming regulations will result in a massive “loss of steel, paper, aluminum, chemical, and cement manufacturing jobs.”

It’s not just the administration’s global warming regulations that will wipe out jobs. The stimulus package contained so-called “green jobs” funding, 79 percent of which went to foreign firms, replacing American jobs with foreign green jobs.  A recent biofuel program actually wiped out jobs rather than creating them as intended, while costing taxpayers a lot of money.

The administration’s energy policies presume that central planners know better than private citizens and companies about how to create jobs and allocate capital.  But government officials, unlike private companies, have little incentive to make economically wise decisions, since they don’t pay the cost of their own mistakes, but rather pass them on to taxpayers.  The Justice Department, for example, often ignores the misconduct and constitutional violations committed by its own employees, while the federal Energy Department is one of the biggest violators of America’s environmental laws.

In the News

Bob Barr: [un]Principled Supporter of Ethanol
Brian McGraw, OpenMarket.org, 24 September 2010

America’s Last Bulb Plant Closes
Henry Payne, Planet Gore, 24 September 2010

Is Clean Energy a Good Investment?
Myron Ebell, Politico Energy Arena, 24 September 2010

Why They Go Green
Robert Bradley, MasterResource.org, 23 September 2010

The Real Gulf Disaster
Wall Street Journal editorial, 23 September 2010

Courts Should Overturn EPA Climate Rules
Marlo Lewis, GlobalWarming.org, 22 September 2010

Friedman Today
Jonah Goldberg, The Corner, 22 September 2010

Soros To Push Climate Policy
Chris Horner, American Spectator, 21 September 2010

Climate Change Enlightenment Is Dead
George Monbiot, Guardian, 20 September 2010

British Energy Policy Is in Crisis
Christopher Booker, Sunday Telegraph, 18 September 2010

News You Can Use

According to the latest Nongovernment International Panel on Climate Change newsletter, “Estimates of current rates of ice loss for Greenland and Antarctica have been reduced by a factor of two, suggesting that almost none of the sea level rise over the past decade is due to glacial ice loss. Click here to subscribe.

Inside the Beltway

Myron Ebell

Senators Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) and Sam Brownback (R-Ks.) announced this week that they would try to bring a stand-alone renewable electricity standard (RES) bill to the Senate floor during a lame duck session after the November 2nd elections.  Their new 43-page bill would require that electric utilities provide at least 15% of their power from renewable sources by 2021, although up to 4% could come from improvements in energy efficiency.  The new federal standard would be in addition to the many state renewable requirements that have already been enacted.

The bill, S. 3813, now has 20 Democratic and 4 Republican sponsors.  The Republicans besides Brownback are: Collins (Me.), Ensign (Nev.), and Grassley (Ia.).  The Democrats besides Bingaman are: Dorgan (ND), Harkin (Ia.), Bennet (Colo.), Murray (Wash.), Begich (Alaska), Feinstein (Calif.), Reid (Nev.), Tom Udall (NM), Mark Udall (Colo.), Cantwell (Wash.), Franken (Minn.), Kerry (Mass.), Durbin (Ill.), Stabenow (Mich.), Kaufman (Del.), Johnson (SD), Shaheen (NH), Burris (Ill.), and Cardin (Md.).

Two headlines in Greenwire publications sum up the dilemma.  On Thursday, the headline was “Renewable Electricity Standard Bill Stands Alone or Dies, Senate Sponsors Vow.”  On Friday, however, the headline was “Lawmakers See RES Bill as Christmas Tree for Pet Projects.” The fact is that in lame duck sessions, Members become even more focused than they usually are on getting whatever they can for themselves.  This means that trying to keep the bill free of lots of other provisions will be close to impossible.  On the other hand, its slim chances for passage will become virtually nil if other provisions are added by amendment.

One of the possible amendments is Senator Jay Rockefeller’s (D-WV) bill to delay for two years EPA’s implementation of Clean Air Act regulations on greenhouse gas emissions.  Rockefeller said he was thinking about it.  Senator Christopher Bond (R-Mo.) said it was a definite possibility that he would offer it if Rockefeller did not.

Around the World

Pressure Mounts on Pachauri To Resign

Pressure is growing on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Chairman Rajendra Pachauri to resign in the wake of a critical audit released last month by the InterAcademy Council. Although the IAC report didn’t outright call for Pachauri’s resignation, the lead investigator, Harold Shapiro, said that the IPCC has to “re-earn” trust for the chair, which has been taken to mean that Pachauri’s ouster is a necessary reform. This week, former United Kingdom Environmental Minister Tim Yeo told the BBC that Pachauri is “doing more harm than good,” and Mike Hulme, a former IPCC lead author, said that a new chairman would bring “respect” to the panel. Pachauri’s reputation has become so damaged that the UK director of Greenpeace John Sauven told The Times, “the IPCC needs to regain credibility. Is that going to happen with Pachauri? I don’t think so.”

The Cooler Heads Digest is the weekly e-mail publication of the Cooler Heads Coalition. For the latest news and commentary, check out the Coalition’s website, www.globalwarming.org.

Bob Barr, the 2008 Libertarian Party presidential nominee, had a piece in yesterday’s Huffington Post titled Extending Ethanol Tax Credit Makes Sense. It’s depressing to see such a high-profile libertarian completely sell out, and I hope he receives flack over this return to special interest politics, as just over a year ago he said “How about the still-active ethanol subsidy scam? Thankfully, the online comments from the left-leaning Huffington Post suggest few are buying into his spiel. If this was some ploy by the ethanol industry to gain support from free-marketers, let me suggest that will not succeed. The entire article is full of misinformation.

Barr attributes a “lack of public awareness,” and the tax credit’s apparent complexity to the trouble ethanol proponents are having in re-securing the tax credits.

I would think a lack of public awareness, if anything, would help the ethanol industry. If the public was even remotely aware of the extent to which government support for ethanol is bad policy, more people would be against it. Right now, all they’re seeing is the occasional advertisement featuring a bright yellow corn-stalk or blabber about how ethanol can’t spill in the gulf (unless we import it from Brazil, then of course the likelihood of a spill approaches 100%). I’d suggest that the ethanol industry get in touch with the sugar lobby for a few pointers on how to maintain horrendous policy.

Barr cites a 2010 CBO report, “Using Biofuel Tax Credits to Achieve Energy and Environmental Policy Goals“ and concludes that evaluating the benefits of ethanol is daunting and un-objective. Confident that no one will actually find the report and read even the summary, Barr is able to completely misconstrue the conclusions of the report (and he talks of ethanol opponents being disingenuous).

At the risk of repeating myself for the 10th time, let’s look at relevant quotes from the CBO report:

From the conclusions section of their summary:

The costs to taxpayers of using a biofuel to reduce gasoline consumption by one gallon are $1.78 for ethanol made from corn and $3.00 for cellulosic ethanol.

Taxpayers spend $1.78 to reduce consumption of one gallon of gasoline; approximately 66% of current gas prices. Sounds like a great deal to me.

Similarly, the costs to taxpayers of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through the biofuel tax credits vary by fuel: about $750 per metric ton of CO2e (that is, per metric ton of greenhouse gases measured in terms of an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide) for ethanol, about $275 per metric ton of CO2e for cellulosic ethanol, and about $300 per metric ton of CO2e for biodiesel. Those estimates do not reflect any emissions of carbon dioxide that occur when the production of biofuels causes forests or grasslands to be converted to farmland for growing the fuels’ feedstocks. If those emissions were taken into account, such changes in land use would raise the cost of reducing emissions and change the relative costs of reducing emissions through the use of different biofuels—in some cases, by a substantial amount.

Not cost effective at lowering emissions. The Waxman Markley cap-and-trade bill had permits set to be traded at $32. Equivalent carbon permits in the EU are selling for approximately $20. This means that other industries are capable of reducing their GHG emissions at a cost of 23-27 times less.

“In the future, the scheduled rise in mandated volumes would require the production of biofuels in amounts that are probably beyond what the market would produce even if the effects of the tax credits were included. To the extent that the mandates determine levels of production in the future, the biofuel tax credits would no longer be increasing production, but they would still be reducing the costs borne by producers and consumers of biofuels and shifting some of those costs to taxpayers.”

Given the Renewable Fuels Standard, the tax credit doesn’t do much other than secure (little) excess profit for the ethanol industry at taxpayer expense.

Continuing on, Barr discusses subsidies for the oil-companies and job losses. The oil company subsidies are mostly in the form of tax write-offs available to a wide sector of U.S. industry (good summary here) rather than just the oil companies. To the extent to which the oil companies do receive subsidies, they are larger on an absolute level but are dwarfed by all sectors of “renewable energy” (let us not forget that the ethanol industry relies on fossil fuels to produce ethanol) on a per unit of energy produced basis.

Job losses of over 100,000 are a complete falsehood perpetuated by the ethanol industry. See a study here; which explains that job losses are likely to be under 1,000 because of the RFS mandating ethanol production.

Finally, Barr requests a fair and comprehensive debate including the “philosophical pros and cons” of federal tax policy. Then sneaks in the fact that despite the VEETC the ethanol industry is a net contributor to tax revenue. This is probably true, though it ignores the numerous state level subsidies and the years and year of subsidies when net tax revenues were likely negative. Furthermore, the net tax revenue of the ethanol industry would likely be higher under a scenario where the U.S. taxpayers didn’t write a $6 billion check each year supporting them.

Cognitive dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. Let’s hope its not hurting Mr. Barr too much this week as he recovers from a disgraceful opinion piece.

Mr. “Ecomagination” — GE’s CEO Jeffrey Immelt — called on the U.S. to put a long-term price on carbon so this country could compete with China in being “green, green, green, green – four greens,” according to a news article today in Bloomberg.

In his speech, the article notes, Immelt said that a carbon pricing scheme would create jobs:

The U.S. needs to establish a “long-term price signal” on carbon emissions, in order for companies to provide “appropriate funding for innovation” regardless of fuel, as well as revive nuclear energy. Such moves would create jobs rather than shift them overseas, Immelt said.

So taxing energy use — raising the price of energy — will be a job stimulator.  Doesn’t sound like it, if he has in mind a cap-and-tax scheme. (Here’s also a useful primer on costs of global warming policies.)

Immelt seems to be emulating the fictional “thought bullet” leader Martin Lukes, who plunged to his death recently in the Financial Times. Lukes’ most notable contribution to corporate management was “creovation”-combining creativity and innovation, which, according to Lukes’ obituary (registration required) was the basis for GE’s “ecomagination” emphasis. (Satire, of course.)

According to some reports, Immelt may be a candidate to replace Larry Summers as chief economic advisor to President Obama (not a satire).  If so, expect lots of “thought bullets” a la Lukes.

Last Thursday (September 16, 2010), three groups, each led by the Coalition for Responsible Regulation (CRR), filed motions with the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals to “stay” (put a hold on) the Environmental Protection Agency’s recently finalized greenhouse gas regulations.

The EPA regulations at issue are:

  1. The Endangerment Rule, which finds that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions endanger public health and welfare, thereby obligating EPA to develop and adopt GHG emission standards for new motor vehicles.
  2. The Tailpipe Rule, which, per the Endangerment Rule, establishes first-ever GHG emission standards for new motor vehicles.
  3. The Triggering Rule, which holds that when the Tailpipe Rule takes effect (Jan. 2, 2011), “major” GHG emitting facilities will be “subject to regulation” under the Act’s Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) pre-construction permitting program and Title V operating permits program.
  4. The Tailoring Rule, which amends the PSD and Title V definitions of “major emitting facility” to avoid the “absurd result” of EPA and State environmental agencies having to process an estimated 41,000 PSD permits and 6.1 million Title V permits every year.

The groups filing the motions are: (1) a coalition of business associations led by the National Association of Manufacturers; (2) the State of Texas; and (3) a coalition of public policy advocates. The industry group is asking the Court to stay the Endangerment Rule, the Triggering Rule, and the Tailoring Rule, although not the Tailpipe Rule. Texas and the advocacy groups ask for a stay on all four regulations pending the Court’s review and decision to uphold or vacate the rules.

One point the motion makes is unarguable. Granting a stay can cause no harm to public health, even if one assumes global warming is a big problem. After all, EPA itself estimates that the Tailpipe Rule — the only rule for which environmental effects are estimated — would avert less than 1/100th of a degree Fahrenheit of global warming by 2100. Thus, if the Tailpipe Rule survives judicial scrutiny, delaying its implementation by six months to a year would have no discernible environmental impact. Besides, the stay would not affect the National  Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) recent revision of fuel economy (CAFE) standards, and the overwhelming lion’s share of emission reductions required by the Tailpipe Rule actually comes from the new fuel economy regulations.

In contrast, the motions argue, EPA’s rules are already harming the economy. The dubious legal basis of both the Tailoring Rule and EPA’s efforts to bully States into immediately amending their permit programs ”now impose a terrible uncertainty tax on our struggling economy, as no business is able to make plans or investments in reliance on a regulatory scheme so clearly at odds with the plain language of the Act.” Businesses and State permitting agencies will incur additional losses if they make investments based on EPA’s rules and the rules are subsequently overturned. Best to put the regs on hold until the Court rules on their legal bona fides.

The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) is a party to the advocacy group motion, which makes a powerful case that the regulations should be stayed and, ultimately, overturned. Lest anyone suspect that I’m tooting my own horn, I had absolutely no role in either developing or drafting the motion.

Big Picture

As can be surmised from the description above, EPA’s four rules are interdependent. The Endangerment Rule authorizes and, indeed, compels EPA to establish GHG emission standards for new motor vehicles. The emission standards, promulgated via the Tailpipe Rule, make GHGs subject to regulation under PSD and Title V, according to the Triggering Rule. To avoid administrative paralysis, economic disruption, and political backlash, the Tailoring Rule exempts all but the largest GHG emitters from PSD and Title permitting requirements over the next six years, raising from 100/250 tons per year to 75,000/100,000 tons per year the cutoff for regulation as a “major” emitting facility.

This custer of regulations is a classic case of bureaucratic self-dealing. As discussed elsewhere, EPA has positioned itself to determine the stringency of fuel economy standards for the auto industry, set climate policy for the nation, and even amend provisions of the Clean Air act—powers Congress never delegated to the agency. The Endangerment Rule is both trigger and precedent for sweeping policy changes Congress never approved. America could end up with a pile of greenhouse gas regulations more costly than any climate bill or treaty the Senate has declined to pass or ratify, yet without the people’s representatives ever voting on it. Overturning EPA’s GHG rules is a constitutional imperative.

The Arguments

The motion to stay advances new arguments — or improved versions of familiar arguments — for overturning each of the four EPA rules. The following sections summarize and excerpt some of the motion’s key insights.

EPA Outsourced Its Endangerment Judgment

Section 202 of the Clean Air Act requires the Administrator to determine the dangerousness of air pollution from motor vehicles based on her “judgment.” Instead, the motion points out, quoting EPA’s Endangerment Rule:

“the Administrator … rel[ied] on the major assessments of USGCRP, IPCC and NRC as the primary scientific and technical basis of her endangerment decision.” 74 Fed. Reg. at 66,510.14
EPA specifically declined to undertake “a new and independent assessment,” id. at 66,511, preferring to “plac[e] primary and significant weight on these assessment reports in making her decision on endangerment.” Id.

Which means:

. . . the only “judgment” EPA really made is that IPCC can be trusted to have made the endangerment assessment required by the Act. But the Act does not authorize entities other than EPA to make that assessment. See, e.g., U.S. Telecom Ass’n v. FCC, 359 F.3d 554, 565 (D.C. Cir. 2004) (“[F]ederal agency officials … may not subdelegate to outside entities—private or sovereign—absent affirmative evidence of authority to do so.”).

In effect, EPA asks the Court and the American people to trust that the IPCC did its job objectively, adhering to U.S. Government standards of scientific integrity. “But neither this Court nor the interested public can determine whether IPCC in fact did so, because the innumerable choices made by its many authors are not in the record.” The Climategate emails reveal instances of behavior inconsistent with U.S. information quality standards, such as Climatic Research Unit Director Phil Jones vowing to keep peer-reviewed research contrary to his views out of the next IPCC report “even if we have to redefine what the peer reviewed literature is.”

Bottom line: The Endangerment Rule embodies “a scientific judgment made by IPCC, and then adopted by EPA, not supported by any record that this Court can review. This is error.”

EPA Fails to Make the Judgment Required by Sec. 202

“Endangerment,” the motion observes, “is not a scientific term with defined endpoints. It is not an objective measure, like the boiling point of water, but a value judgment, like ‘bad.’ And so before EPA finds ‘endangerment,’ it first must define it.” In other words, EPA must explain its judgment in terms of climate-related metrics like temperature, precipitation, or wind speed, such that the public can understand which changes in climatic variables constitute endangerment, and which do not. “EPA has failed to do so.”

To clarify this point, the motion compares EPA’s  endangerment finding for motor vehicle GHG emissions with the agency’s 1973 endangerment finding for vehicular lead emissions. In the earlier rule, EPA provided quantitative information relating lead emissions to atmospheric concentrations, the latter to blood lead levels, and blood levels to brain function. In addition, EPA analyzed how regulation of lead in gasoline would reduce atmospheric concentrations, reduce lead levels in blood, and, thus, improve public health. Thus, “By the end of the rulemaking, EPA had fully explained all of the choices it made along the path of converting available scientific knowledge about lead toxicology and exposure into a policy-based finding of endangerment from automotive lead emissions sufficient to justify regulation, and allow—and survive—judicial review.”

In contrast, EPA “jumps from the tautology that ‘greenhouse gases cause a greenhouse effect’ to ‘greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare’ sufficient to warrant exactly the level of GHG reductions that happen to result from NHTSA’s imposition of the CAFE standards required by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act.” The motion continues:

It is as though EPA, in Ethyl [Corp. v. EPA, 541 F. 2d1, 1976], were defending a rule to ban leaded gasoline because lead is a poison at some unknown dose; cars burning leaded gasoline can emit lead, which has some unknown effect on atmospheric lead concentrations; and banning leaded gasoline would yield some unknown but trivial reduction in atmospheric lead levels, possibly mitigating by some unknown (but at best trivial) degree the unknown adverse effects that may result from atmospheric lead, although it is very, very possible that the ban would accomplish absolutely nothing at all.

“If anything,” the motion comments, “EPA should face a far greater burden to explain its policy choices here than it did in Ethyl. Lead is strictly a poison, whereas carbon dioxide is a natural component of clean air, ingested by all plants and exhaled by all animals. Life on Earth depends on the very ‘danger’ that EPA is trying to prevent.” Carbon dioxide is not only plant food, it also helps keep the Earth habitably warm.

In short, “An endangerment finding under Section 202(a) does not simply identify a health and welfare risk, as EPA contends; it also establishes the criteria that will inform whether the emission standards adopted to address that risk are rational. . . . EPA here failed to do so, first by rubber-stamping the IPCC’s findings instead of making its own assessment of the evidence, and then by disavowing any obligation to explain the various policy choices it made to reach its ultimate judgment and regulatory response.”

EPA’s Assessment of the Scientific Record Is Logically Flawed

Quoting (or parroting) the IPCC, EPA argues that it is “extremely unlikely” (less than a 5% probability) that the warmth of recent decades can be explained without “external forcing” by greenhouse gas emissions. But this conclusion is inconsistent with other IPCC statements. The IPCC acknowledges three potential drivers of climate change: (1) changes in incoming solar radiation (e.g. due to changes in the Earth’s orbit or the Sun); (2) changes in reflected solar radiation (e.g. due to changes in low-level cloud cover); and (3) changes in outgoing longwave radiation (e.g. due to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations). According to the IPCC, scientific understanding of the Sun’s role in climate change is “low” and there is “significant uncertainty” with regard to cloud behavior and reflectivity. If there is significant uncertainty about two of the three main drivers, it is impossible for EPA — or the IPCC — to be 95% certain which is in the driver’s seat. In the motion’s words:

EPA cannot, and does not, explain how its 95% certainty is justified on the record. There cannot simultaneously be both “significant uncertainty” about primary climate drivers and 95% certainty that anthropogenic GHGs are causing any observed warming, yet EPA concludes there is. This fails even minimal standards of rationality.

EPA’s Administrative Record Fails to Establish Any Non-Trivial Benefits from the Tailpipe Rule

Citing Ethyl Corp. (541 F.2d at 31 n. 62), the motion argues that an administrative agency’s regulatory actions should “fruitfully” attack the problem being addressed. Yet, by EPA’s own admission, the Tailpipe Rule would produce imperceptible benefits, reducing projected global warming by 0.006-0.015°C and projected sea-level rise by 0.06-0.14 cm in 2100.

EPA’s GHG Tailpipe Limits Accomplish No Public Benefit (If Any) that NHTSA’s CAFE Standards Do Not Already Accomplish

About 95% of all GHGs emitted by motor vehicles is carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel combustion. As EPA’s Tailpipe Rule acknowledges (p. 25327), there is a “single pool of technologies . . .  that reduce fuel consumption and thereby reduce CO2 emissions as well.” Unsurprisingly, the motion argues, “The [new] CAFE standards and EPA’s Tailpipe Rule are virtually identical, with irrelevant differences in how the two standards address air conditioning.”

The case law is not favorable to agencies duplicating the regulations of other agencies. Alas, the Tailpipe Rule is not merely redundant, it also has “profound and pernicious effects” on the economy, if, as EPA contends, it subjects  millions of small stationary sources to Clean Air Act permitting requirements. In sum:

There is no rational basis for EPA to promulgate mobile source rules that do nothing more than reiterate other, independently effective legal requirements, and that offer no added environmental benefit but impose far-reaching and unintended costs on a source population (stationary sources) not even considered in the Endangerment Finding assessment.

The Tailoring Rule Is an Illegal Solution to a Legal Problem of EPA’s Own Creation

This is the most original part of the motion’s argument. To obtain a PSD permit to build or modify a “major” stationary source, the applicant must demonstrate the facility’s compliance with “best available control technology” (BACT) standards. EPA reads Section 165(a)(4) of the Clean Air Act as requiring BACT compliance and PSD permitting for major sources of almost any regulated air pollutant.** Since the Tailpipe Rule makes GHGs regulated air pollutants, major stationary sources of GHGs are subject to PSD and BACT, EPA reasons.

To reach this conclusion, however, EPA had to ignore statutory context. Sec. 165(a)(4) states:

No major emitting facility on which construction is commenced after August 7, 1977, may be constructed in any area to which this part applies unless . . . — the proposed facility is subject to the best available control technology for each pollutant subject to regulation under this chapter emitted from, or which results from, such facility [emphasis added].

In the foregoing, “this chapter” means the Clean Air Act. EPA reads the phrase “each pollutant subject to regulation under this chapter” apart from the qualifying and limiting phrase, ”in any area to which this part applies.” The “part” in question is Part C (Prevention of Significant Deterioration of Air Quality), and the “area” to which it applies is an attainment area. Part C is clearly distinguished from Part D, which addresses permitting requirements in non-attainment areas.

The distinction between attainment and non-attainment areas presupposes, and has no meaning apart from, the adoption of national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for the pollutant of concern. Properly construed, Sec. 165(a)(4) creates BACT and PSD obligations only in attainment areas based on a prior NAAQS rulemaking. Since there are no NAAQS for GHGs, there are no GHG attainment areas, hence no areas where Part C BACT and PSD requirements apply to GHG emitting facilities.

Since the Tailpipe Rule does not trigger BACT and PSD for stationary sources, there is also no need for EPA to play lawmaker and “tailor” — that is, amend– the PSD applicability thresholds. Similarly, because “Title V is intended solely to codify otherwise applicable requirements in permits issued to stationary sources,” and stationary sources have no new obligations as a consequence of EPA’s decision to regulate mobile source GHGs, there is no necessity to amend the Title V applicability threshold.

The motion sensibly concludes:

Having applied the Act to a “pollutant” under programs never intended for that “pollutant,” EPA is confronted with the need to undo the “absurd” results that follow by outright defiance of crystal-clear provisions of the statute, those setting forth the applicability thresholds. The far better—and only legal—choice instead is to avoid manufacturing overbreadth in the first place.

(If this argument is correct, then EPA bears a greater responsibility for Massachusetts v. EPA’slegacy of absurd results” than I previously supposed.)

The Triggering and Tailoring Rules Treat the States as Vassals, Not As the Equal Sovereigns Contemplated by the Clean Air Act

EPA assumes it can simply command States to incorporate PSD permitting for GHGs in their State Implementation Plans (SIPs), or face imposition of an EPA-crafted Federal Implementation Plan (FIP). Not so, the motion argues:

Section 110(a)(2)(C) requires each State’s permit program to mandate permits only for “modification and construction of any stationary source within the areas covered by the plan as necessary to assure that national ambient air quality standards are achieved, including a permit program as required in parts C and D….” 42 U.S.C. § 7410(a)(2)(C). EPA has no basis, then, to disapprove a State’s permit program for failing to govern emissions of a pollutant for which there is no NAAQS.

EPA assumes that the Tailpipe Rule and Tailoring Rules will or at least should automatically revise State permitting programs and the SIPs governing them.  In so doing, EPA erroneously views the States as vassals, because “no sovereign can delegate to another the ability to make its laws. The State must by some affirmative act ratify any changes in pollutants and applicability thresholds incorporated from federal laws before they become effective.”

EPA’s rush to incorporate GHGs into State permitting programs also runs afoul of procedural requirements. Section110 of the Clean Air Act “allows at least 18 months after proper adoption of new SIP expectations before requiring their implementation by the States.” In addition, Section 166 allows States 21 months to submit a plan revision following an EPA rulemaking calling for the addition of new pollutants in the PSD program. “EPA, of course, has undertaken no such rulemaking, nor allowed any time for each State to respond.” Indeed, one of the rules EPA recently proposed to bypass the normal SIP revision process would “give States perhaps three weeks in December to respond to a call for revisions to their SIPs, or face a construction ban on January 2, 2011.”

A Stay Would Allow for Rational Policy Development

The House passed a cap-and-trade bill in June 2009, but in 2010 cap-and-trade died in the Senate. Senators mounted an unsuccessful effort to overturn EPA’s Endangerment Rule, but all 41 Republicans and six Democrats voted for the resolution of disapproval. “The 111th Congress evidently will adjourn unable to either ratify the current state of affairs or change it, but the 112th may be rather more willing to announce an opinion on behalf of the electorate. A stay would allow for the possibility that Congress finally will state its intentions to regulate GHGs under the Clean Air Act, or not, so that this Court will not have to speak for it.” ‘Nuff said.

** The Clean Air Act prescribes separate and tougher permitting requirements for major sources of toxic air pollutants and criteria air pollutants in areas failing to meet national ambient air quality standards.

Do green energy and green jobs mandates run counter to World Trade Organization rules?  Japan says “yes” in relation to Canada’s program for renewable energy generation and green jobs in Ontario. Japan is complaining to the WTO that Canadian measures that mandate domestic content requirements for renewable energy generation equipment are inconsistent with WTO rules because they discriminate against equipment produced outside of Ontario and also represent a subsidy prohibited by the WTO. The country has asked the WTO for a formal consultation with Canada on the issues it raises in its September 13, 2010 filing. Consultations are often the first step in trying to resolve an issue before a country opens an official case with the WTO’s dispute settlement body.

Primarily Japan’s complaint hits Canada’s domestic content requirements in its “feed-in tariff” (FIT) program for Ontario, which requires that the renewable energy equipment, such as solar panels, wind turbines, biomass, and waterpower generation equipment, be produced in Ontario in whole or in part. (Feed-in tariffs are renewable energy payments that electric grid utilities obligate themselves to pay to purchase electricity generated from renewable sources.)  Under the program guaranteed prices for renewable energy electricity production are provided through long-term contracts.

According to a provincial government backgrounder on FIT, the domestic content requirements are intended to support “new green jobs in Ontario”:

Domestic content requirements for both FIT and microFIT projects are intended to help support the creation of 50,000 new green jobs in Ontario. MicroFIT projects will help create new local businesses and green jobs as demand grows for technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, biomass and waterpower generation equipment, and for Ontarians who can design, build, install, operate and maintain these technologies.

And the domestic content requirements can be very specific (and somewhat ridiculous).   Here, for instance, is the one for silicon ingots and wafers:

Silicon ingots and wafer, where silicon ingots have been cast in Ontario, and wafers have been cut from the castings by a saw in Ontario.

From my quick review of the Canadian program, Japan seems to have a real cause for its complaint. Other countries looking to follow Canada’s example for green jobs creation should be wary about including their own protectionist measures.

H/T/ Julie Walsh

Soon the U.S. Circuit Court for Appeals in Washington D.C. is expected to address legal challenges (brought by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, among others) to the EPA’s plan to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. In the meantime, CEI this week filed a motion to delay the implementation of the regulations until the Court makes a decision. To read the motion, click here.