In the News

Barton, Walden Ask EPA to Explain Reliance on Dubious Reports
House Energy and Commerce Committee Press Release, 4 February 2020

Putting the Ass in Assassin
Chris Horner, Planet Gore, 4 February 2010

Gov’t Report: UK Faces Power Outages
David Strahan, Telegraph, 4 February 2010

The Left Can Also Disown Cap-and-Trade
Robert Bradley, Jr., MasterResource.org, 3 February 2010

Hackers Steal Millions in Carbon Credits
Kim Zetter, Wired, 3 February 2010

The Global Warming Guerrillas
Matt Ridley, The Spectator, 3 February 2010

How Climate Change Fanatics Corrupted Science
Michael Barone, Washington Examiner, 3 February 2010

UK’s Power Bill Arrives
Ed Crooks, Financial Times, 3 February 2010

Negative Energy
Kate Sheppard, Mother Jones, 2 February 2010

Climategate Reveals Flaws in Peer Review
Fred Pearce, Guardian, 2 February 2010

How the CRU Manipulated Data
Fred Pearce, Guardian, 1 February 2010

Global Warming Alarmism Is Dead
Walter Russell Mead, The American Interest, 1 February 2010

Climategate Requires Resignations
George Monbiot, Guardian, 1 February 2010

Alarmists Don’t Have the Courage of Their Convictions
Kimberley Jo Simac, Pajamas Media, 30 January 2010

No More Global Warming Lawsuits
Laurence Tribe, Washington Legal Foundation, 30 January 2010

The Collapse of Alarmism
Philip Stott, The Clamour of the Times, 30 January 2010

News You Can Use

The Headline Says It All

UK Daily Express: “No One Believes Us, Admit Global Warming Scientists

Inside the Beltway

Myron Ebell

Al Gore: MIA?

Global warming alarmism is on its heels: COP-15 in Copenhagen was a flop, cap-and-trade legislation is dead in Congress, the Climategate scientific fraud scandal continues to grow, the chairman of the IPCC is more deranged than ever, an initiative is being launched in California to suspend AB 32, and public support for energy-rationing legislation continues to sink.  These would seem to be desperate times for the forces of darkness.  The only thing that might save the day is heroic action.

So where has Al Gore gone?  Why isn’t he leading the charge to save the day?  Gore was in Copenhagen in December for COP-15, but cancelled his sold-out public speech.  Since then, he has been silent.  Internet news searches turn up an appearance this week at Apple Computer’s unveiling of its iPad, but nothing global warming-related.

My CEI colleague Chris Horner thinks Al Gore has disappeared from the public debate because his business partners in crime have finally realized that he is a liability that threatens their green investments and have therefore told him to shut up.  I agree that Gore’s leadership of the forces of darkness is a great gift to our side (and have written about it in my December profile of Gore), so it’s a plausible explanation.  What I don’t believe is that Gore would agree to follow that advice.

An alternative explanation is that Gore doesn’t want to have to defend the junk science he has been pedaling for years now that the imprimatur of the IPCC, the Climatic Research Unit, or NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies is no longer seen as a guarantee of quality.  Another is that he’s lying low while preparing the counter-attack.  I suppose we’ll find out soon enough where Al has gone and what he’s doing, but for now it’s a mystery.

Into the leadership vacuum created by Gore’s absence has stepped Osama bin Laden, even though he has also disappeared from public view.  Bin Laden has long supported the Kyoto Protocol and blamed the United States for not signing it in his occasional audio and video tapes, but last week he stepped up his campaign to solve global warming by de-industrializing (and perhaps vaporizing) the United States.  As we reported in last week’s Digest, the EPA is already working to implement bin Laden’s vision of a pastoral America.  The mastermind of Al Qaeda’s terrorist war may turn out to be a better leader of the forces of darkness than Gore.  Unlike Gore, bin Laden practices what he preaches.  He has adopted a low carbon lifestyle, has given up air travel, reportedly lives in a cave, and has taken to heart Gore’s admonition in Earth in the Balance (1992) that what is needed to save the world is a “wrenching transformation of society.”

EPA’s Budget to Regulate is Up in the Air

The Obama Administration sent its proposed budget to Congress this week.  Amid stupendous proposed increases in federal spending is a relatively modest additional $56 million for the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.  If the Senate passes S. J. Res. 36, Senator Lisa Murkowski’s (R-Alaska) resolution to disapprove EPA’s endangerment finding, then I don’t think the Senate is going to go along with this request.  It is more likely that a serious effort will be made in the Appropriations Committee or on the floor by Senator John Thune (R-SD) to prohibit EPA from spending any funds to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

For those who would like to tell their Senators that they support (or oppose) Murkowski’s disapproval resolution, Freedom Action is providing a convenient web page to compose and send e-mails.  It takes a minute or two to fill out the form and click send.

House Democrats Getting Cold Feet

On the House side, Democrats worried about being re-elected are jumping ship.  Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) has introduced a bill (H. R. 4396) very similar to Rep. Marsha Blackburn’s bill (H. R. 391) to strip EPA of its authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions using the Clean Air Act.  Representatives Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), and Jo Ann Emerson (R-Mo.) have introduced another bill that would do the same thing and provide some more government benefits for ethanol.  Skelton and Peterson voted for the Waxman-Markey energy-rationing bill (H. R. 2454) last June and have been taking it in the neck from their constituents ever since.  Their bill is attempts to make amends for their mistake.  It is significant that Skelton and Peterson are in the House Democratic leadership.  Skelton is Chairman of the Armed Services Committee.  Peterson is Chairman of the Agriculture Committee and negotiated all sorts of special breaks for agriculture in the Waxman-Markey bill.

Across the States

California

Supporters of a California ballot initiative that would suspend implementation of AB 32, the State’s 2006 global warming law, wanted to label it the “California Jobs Initiative,” but according to the California constitution, naming initiatives is the responsibility of the Attorney General. Incumbent AG Jerry Brown has long been an environmental alarmist, so it’s unsurprising that he changed the suggested title of the initiative. What is surprising is the length to which Brown went to impose his environmentalist interpretation. According to the Los Angeles Times, Brown named the initiative, “Suspends air pollution control laws requiring major polluters to report and reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming.” In fact, the initiative would bar the implementation of the Act, which is designed to make energy more expensive, until unemployment goes down to 5.5% (it currently stands at 11%). Cheaper energy, of course, is conducive to greater employment, so the original title was more accurate.

Around the World

Pachauri Unhinged

Rajendra K. Pachauri, the head of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has had a tough winter. In late December, Richard North and Christopher Booker reported in the Telegraph on questionable investments made by Pachauri that seem to give him a financial stake in global warming alarmism. Then, in January, Pachauri was forced to acknowledge that the IPCC grossly overestimated the extent of Himalayan glacier melt. Other glaring errors and instances of shoddy science by the IPCC have since come to light, putting Pachauri further on the defensive. Even Greenpeace is now calling for him to step down.

It seems that all the bad press has unhinged the IPCC chief. In a bizarre interview with the Financial Times this week, Pachauri refused to resign and blamed his troubles on “well orchestrated” attack by unnamed perpetrators, “people who say that asbestos is as good as talcum powder.” He added, “I hope that they apply it to their faces every day.”

Climategate Update

As a result of Penn State University’s decision this week to start a formal investigation into allegations that PSU professor Michael Mann committed scientific misconduct, Representative Darrel Issa (R- California) has called on the Obama administration to freeze more than $500,000 of stimulus money earmarked to Mann for climate research. The PSU investigation of Mann was instigated by his involvement in the growing Climategate scandal. After a preliminary inquiry, PSU cleared Mann of 3 of 4 initial allegations of scientific malpractice, although Canadian climate analyst and blogger Steve McIntyre believes that the PSU preliminary investigation was a whitewash. McIntyre should know-in 2003, he debunked Michael Mann’s fraudulent “hockey stick” temperature record.

MoveOn Is Way-off

Julie Walsh, Freedom Action

MoveOn has launched an ad campaign against the three Democratic senators-Blanche  Lincoln (Ark.), Mary Landrieu (La.), and Ben Nelson (Neb.)-who are supporting the Resolution of Disapproval of EPA’s endangerment finding. In fact, MoveOn is running the most blatantly false television ad I’ve ever seen.

Where is Joe Wilson when you need him? Showing pictures of women in labor and babies smoking cigarettes, this ad now running in Nebraska, Louisiana and Arkansas implies that support for this Resolution will negate the Clean Air Act and cause all of us to breathe polluted air. “You lie!” Simply put, this Resolution will only keep EPA from controlling carbon dioxide producing energy in the name of a supposed coming catastrophe from “global warming.”

For those who disagree with this ad and would like to write their senators to support the Resolution of Disapproval of EPA you can click here.

The Cooler Heads Digest is the weekly e-mail publication of the Cooler Heads Coalition. For the latest news and commentary check out the Coalition’s website, www.globalwarming.org.

NASA can learn from NASA

by Drew Tidwell on February 3, 2010

in Blog

NASA’s Mars Exploration Rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, are back in the news. The two rovers, which had a 90-day mission, have been exploring Mars for over six years now. Spirit is now stuck in a sand trap. Since it is still mostly functional, NASA is working to make it a stationary research platform.

Besides searching of signs of life, the Rovers’ mission is to analyze the Martian climate. The raw climate data they are providing have been invaluable for NASA scientists.

This pursuit of truth and knowledge, uncolored by narrow political interests, will have far-ranging impacts on the understanding of our own climate. In the distant future, it may even help us to terraform Mars. This is the scientific method at its finest.

NASA also does climate research here on Earth. Unlike the Martian research, the data are being massaged and manipulated. The growing Climategate scandal has not been kind to NASA.

Why are the Earth and Mars data being treated so differently? Maybe because there is no predetermined outcome that must be obtained by the data coming in from Mars?

The findings from Penn State University’s investigation into Climategate scientist Michael Mann were due this week, and today the university announced today that one allegation warranted further scrutiny:

In looking at four possible allegations of research misconduct, the committee determined that further investigation is warranted for one of those allegations. The recommended investigation will focus on determining if Mann “engaged in, directly or indirectly, any actions that seriously deviated from accepted practices within the academic community for proposing, conducting or reporting research or other scholarly activities.” A full report (http://www.research.psu.edu/orp) concerning the allegations and the findings of the inquiry committee has been submitted.

In the investigatory phase, as in the inquiry phase, the committee will not address the science of global climate change, a matter more appropriately left to the profession. The committee is charged with looking at the ethical behavior of the scientist and determining whether he violated professional standards in the course of his work.

Meanwhile, lawyers for the university have informed climate skeptic Ronald Armstrong (and probably others), who requested Mann’s emails via a Freedom of Information Act request and under Pennsylvania’s Right to Know Law, that Penn State is not subject to either transparency law because it is not an “agency:”

Consequently, the information you requested will not be disclosed since it is confidential and not made available to the public.

Legal weasel words, of course. In a high-profile misconduct case Penn State could certainly choose to release the records, but much like the Climategate conspirators, they can’t afford to let the public see. So they hide behind lawyers who are willing to do their dirty work for them — in this case, Katherine Allen at McQuaide Blasko in Central Pennsylvania.

What’s the matter, doesn’t PSU have some attorney hack on staff who could have cranked out this deflection, rather than paying outside counsel hundreds of dollars an hour to be their bad guy for them?

Climategate Update

by William Yeatman on February 2, 2010

in Blog

Last week the United Kingdom Information Commissioner’s Office-the body that administers the Freedom of Information Act-said the University of East Anglia had flouted the rules in its handling of an FOI request by British amateur climate analyst Doug Kennan.

Today the Guardian reported how Phil Jones, head of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, withheld information requested under freedom of information laws.

The CRU scientist’s wrongdoing and cover-up were only revealed after thousands of University of East Anglia emails were leaked to the internet, in an incident now known as Climategate.

It should be noted that the Competitive Enterprise Institute is involved in helping to further uncover the scandal that Keenan discovered. CEI’s legal team already has submitted a number of FOIA requests to government-employed climate scientists involved in the Climategate emails.

According to the Guardian,

“Jones and his Chinese-American colleague Wei-Chyung Wang, of the University at Albany in New York, are being accused of scientific fraud by an independent British researcher over the contents of a research paper back in 1990.

That paper, which was published in the prestigious journal Nature, claimed to answer an important question in climate change science: how much of the warming seen in recent decades is due to the local effects of spreading cities, rather than global warming?…

…The pair, with four fellow researchers, concluded that the urban influence was negligible. Some of their most compelling evidence came from a study of temperature data from eastern China, a region urbanising fast even then….

…But many climate sceptics did not believe the claim…

…But when Jones turned down requests from them to reveal details about the location of the 84 Chinese weather stations used in the study, arguing that it would be “unduly burdensome”, they concluded that he was covering up the error.

And when, in 2007, Jones finally released what location data he had, British amateur climate analyst and former City banker Doug Keenan accused Jones and Wang of fraud.

He pointed out that the data showed that 49 of the Chinese meteorological stations had no histories of their location or other details. These mysterious stations included 40 of the 42 rural stations. Of the rest, 18 had certainly been moved during the study period, perhaps invalidating their data…

…By then, Keenan had published his charges in Energy & Environment, a peer-reviewed journal edited by a Hull University geographer, Dr Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen.

The paper was largely ignored at the time, but Guardian investigations of the hacked emails now reveal that there was concern among Jones’s colleagues about Wang’s missing data – and the apparent efforts by Jones and Wang over several years to cover this up.

Those concerns were most cogently expressed to Jones by his ex-boss, and former head of the CRU, Dr Tom Wigley. In August 2007, Wigley warned Jones by email: “It seems to me that Keenan has a valid point. The statements in the papers that he quotes seem to be incorrect statements, and that someone (W-C W at the very least) must have known at the time that they were incorrect.”

Dr. Rajendra Pachauri is chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). And he has just released a brand new book. No, it isn’t a sequel to his 1976 Dynamics of Electrical Energy Supply and Demand: An Economic Analysis. It’s a novel, titled Return to Almora. It’s about an Indian climate expert in his sixties who travels around India, Peru, and the United States, making passionate love to women all along the way.

Yes, that’s right: Dr. Pachauri’s first novel is largely about sex; or, as The Daily Telegraph puts it, it’s about “a lot of sex – with a lot of women.”

Return to Almora’s publication comes at an interesting time for Dr. Pachuari. On January 20th, Pachauri was forced to publically apologize for a 2007 IPCC report which erroneously claimed that Himalayan glaciers would melt completely by 2035.

This week, The Sunday Telegraph revealed that the same IPCC report cites only two sources for its claims about the disappearance of mountain ice in the Andes and Alps. One source is an anecdotal article from a popular mountaineer magazine; the other is a Swiss geography student’s dissertation. Now Dr. Pachauri is being blasted in the press for permitting scholastic misconduct. He is also facing calls for his resignation.

Of course, in light of the release of Return to Almora, one can understand how Dr. Pachauri might be confused by the sudden fervent demand for factual accuracy. After all, novelists are encouraged to take creative license in their work—to expand upon the known and sacrifice truth to beauty.

Judging from Return to Almora’s first sex scene—which occurs on page 16, and which features a nubile “May” telling climate scientist “Sanjay” he is “absolutely superb after meditation”—I’d say it’s safe to assume Dr. Rajendra Pachauri has grown accustomed to embellishing fact with a little bit of fantasy.

School Choice: Mankind’s Doom

by Ryan Young on February 1, 2010

in Blog

Caleb Brown points to a study that finds a novel reason to oppose school choice: global warming. In a competitive educational marketplace, it is likely that fewer children would attend schools in their own neighborhood. That would mean less busing, and more driving in cars to get children to school. School choice, then, would contribute to global warming.

The study does not appear to be satire.

In the News

Obama’s Energy Muddle
Marlo Lewis, National Journal, 29 January 2010

The Scientific “Consensus”
Chip Knappenberger, MasterResource.org, 29 January 2010

Mandated Carbon Cuts Won’t Work
Bjorn Lomborg, Wall Street Journal, 29 January 2010

Insecurity and Change Commission
Wall Street Journal
editorial, 29 January 2010

The Real Climate Confusion
Iain Murray, National Review Online, 28 January 2010

EPA Should Ground Carbon Regs for Good
Washington Examiner
editorial, 28 January 2010

IPCC Newest Headache: Amazongate
Gene Koprowski, Fox News, 28 January 2010

EPA at Center of Coal Controversy
David A. Fahrenthold, Washington Post, 27 January 2010

Floating Islands
Willis Eischenbach, WattsUpWithThat.com, 27 January 2010

Discredited IPCC Report Reveals Media Malpractice
Paul Chesser, GlobalWarming.org, 26 January 2010

James Hansen: Would You Buy a Used Temperature Data Set from This Man?
James Delingpole, Daily Telegraph, 22 January 2010

Why We Need Innovation, Not Insulation
Bill Gates, Huffington Post, 22 January 2010

News You Can Use

Pew Poll Ranks Global Warming Last

A new poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that the American public ranks global warming last among twenty “domestic priorities.”

Inside the Beltway

Myron Ebell

SEC’s Demand for Climate Disclosures Might Backfire

The Securities and Exchange Commission this week voted 3 to 2 to issue guidance that will require companies to disclose to investors the effects that climate change and climate change policies could have on the company’s performance.  As Joel Kirkland reported in Climate Wire (reprinted on the New York Times web site), “The SEC public disclosure guidance on climate-related risks is seen as a major victory by an army of environmental groups and institutional investors that have pressed the issue since 2007.”

Well, maybe, but Tom Borelli pointed out in a National Center for Public Policy Research press release that the new rules will actually work against the promoters of energy-rationing policies.  “Fully disclosing the business risk of cap-and-trade will embarrass many CEOs who are lobbying for emissions regulations. Shareholders will discover that these CEOs are pursuing legislation that will negatively impact their company.”  We will discover, I think, that many CEOs have joined the U. S. Climate Action Partnership and other business coalitions that support cap-and-trade without doing adequate or indeed any analysis of what the effects of enacting such legislation could have on their companies’ profits.  This violates their legal fiduciary duties to their shareholders.

Obama to Democrats: Jump off the Cliff

It’s been a busy week on global warming and energy-rationing policy for President Barack Obama and his Administration.  In his State of the Union address to Congress on Wednesday night, the President re-iterated his support for cap-and-trade legislation.  Here is the transcript: “And, yes, it means passing a comprehensive energy and climate bill with incentives that will finally make clean energy the profitable kind of energy in America. (Applause.)  I am grateful to the House for passing such a bill last year. (Applause.)  And this year I’m eager to help advance the bipartisan effort in the Senate. (Applause.)  I know there have been questions about whether we can afford such changes in a tough economy.  I know that there are those who disagree with the overwhelming scientific evidence on climate change.  But here’s the thing — even if you doubt the evidence, providing incentives for energy-efficiency and clean energy are the right thing to do for our future — because the nation that leads the clean energy economy will be the nation that leads the global economy. And America must be that nation. (Applause.)”

President Obama has thus fallen back on the argument first enunciated by then-Senator Timothy Wirth (D-Colo.) in 1988: even if global warming isn’t a problem, it will make us do the right thing.  I’m pretty sure that there are a lot of Democrats in the House and Senate who wish that the President would stop beating his head against this particular political wall.  Cap-and-trade is dead because it is a huge political liability going into November’s congressional elections.  Many who voted for the Waxman-Markey bill in the House last June now regret it and would not vote for it again.  Several Democrats who voted for it have decided to retire.

U.S. Makes Carbon Pledge To Comply with Copenhagen Accord

Todd Stern, the Administration’s top climate negotiator, on Thursday announced that the U. S.’s pledge under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. This was the number that was unofficially announced before the fifteenth Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen in December, so it’s no surprise.  What is slightly surprising is that Stern said that it’s conditional on Congress passing legislation and therefore could be subject to change.  According to a list compiled by the U. S. Climate Action Network, 15 countries have now (as if Friday, 3 PM EST) submitted their pledges to the Copenhagen Accord and 14 more have announced that they are likely to do so.  The 29 countries account for more than 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Obama Orders Feds To Curb Carbon Footprint

President Obama this week also ordered the federal government to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 28% below current levels by 2020.  This order follows from Executive Order 13514, which the President signed last fall and which requires federal departments and agencies to set targets for cutting emissions.  He has now set their target for them.  The most practical way to meet this goal would be to shut down large parts of the federal government.  Let’s hope President Obama seizes this opportunity and achieves the most drastic downsizing of government in history.  The Administration claims that these emissions reductions will save from $8 to 11 billion dollars in energy costs, but the Institute for Energy points out the costs of achieving the reductions are not included and probably outweigh the savings. Ironically, according to a 2008 GAO report, the Environmental Protection Agency had the poorest record among federal departments and agencies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Across the States

Even Green Energy Isn’t Good Enough for Greens

A Maryland developer has agreed not to build 24 turbines and will abandon 31 proposed sites at a West Virginia wind farm, settling a lawsuit by environmental groups worried about potential harm to the endangered Indiana bat, according to a report from ABC News. In related news, California Senator Dianne Feinstein is pushing for federal legislation to block one million acres of the Mojave Desert from solar power development, so as to protect the endangered desert tortoise.

Around the World

The EPA Is Working on Bin-Laden’s Climate Solution

The AP reported this week that terrorist kingpin Osama bin Laden has released a new audio tape claiming that global warming must be stopped by bringing “the wheels of the American economy” to a halt. To learn more about how the Environmental Protection Agency is doing everything in its power to implement Bin Laden’s climate policy recommendation, click here.

Climategate Update

The United Kingdom’s Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) has ruled that the University of East Anglia violated the Freedom of Information Act by withholding raw data requested by Stephen McIntyre, the Canadian statistician and businessman who earlier exposed Michael Mann’s “hockey stick” fraud.  The ruling results from a complaint filed by David Holland, a retired engineer in England. The ICO also announced that they could not prosecute Professor Phil Jones, then-director of the university’s Climatic Research unit, and others implicated in the Climategate scandal because of a flaw in the statute, which they will now recommend be corrected by Parliament.  However, others have suggested that the ICO is misinformed and that the six month statute of limitations does not begin when the violation occurs, but when it is discovered.

As an official British government enquiry into Climategate continues, the House of Commons announced this week that its science and technology committee will undertake their own investigation of the scandal.  Roger Helmer, Member of the European Parliament for the UK, has already submitted his ideas for the enquiry.  Finally, John Beddington, the British government’s chief science adviser, criticized the CRU in an interview with the Times of London this week, defended skepticism as an essential part of scientific enquiry, and advised climate scientists to be more honest about the uncertainties involved in their research.

I imagine just about everyone at one time or another has been added to a mailing list of an organization or candidate who doesn’t align with their worldview. An amusing example of this hit the emailbox of the Commonwealth Foundation, via an message signed by environmentalist Teresa Heinz Kerry (renowned wife of two Johns), who asked recipients to provide their nominees for this year’s Heinz Awards (no, they’re not called Heinies for short):

For most of the program’s history, we have honored five awardees, one each in fields of great importance to John (Heinz), including arts and the humanities, the environment, public policy, technology, and the human condition. Last year, we made an exception to this approach, honoring 10 individuals for their work on the environment, one of John’s highest priorities. This year we want to take this focus even further.

The world is at a crucial moment, brought there by the scale of the human enterprise on Earth. Scientists refer to the cumulative effects of human activities and natural processes on the Earth as global change. The risks of failing to address global changeare too great to accept. Therefore, we seek nominations of people who are addressing global change in unique, innovative and powerful ways.

Note that environoiacs are now moving from “global warming” and “climate change” to “global change.” Let’s prevent humans from doing anything to affect the planet!

You might also recall that Commonwealth Foundation is the Pennsylvania think tank that called for an independent, outside investigation of Climategate‘s hockey stick scientist Michael Mann. I am sure they can come up with some innovative candidates for the awards. If I had the opportunity I would choose the Climategate whistleblower, who certainly instigated “global change” on the climate issue.

“Winter offered as proof of warming” declares a headline in the print edition of the Washington Post, although perhaps the irony of that  later struck the editors and they softened it a bit in the online edition to “Harsh winter a sign of disruptive climate change, report says.”

Nothing especially outrageous here. The enviros have been doing this for years; indeed, it’s why they adopted the term “global climate change” so that any change in climate or even just weather – which obviously this is – can be portrayed as a result of man’s nefarious activities in putting greenhouse gases into the air. The report, incidentally, is from the National Wildlife Federation that makes money by promoting global warming in the same way that GM makes money selling trucks.

But folks are having trouble buying it. A poll released Mondaypoll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press asked respondents to rank 21 issues in terms of priority. Global warming came in dead last. It’s come in last before, but this time just 28 percent of those surveyed list global warming as a top priority, down from 35 percent in 2008.

My Two Cents on AmazonGate

by Marlo Lewis on January 27, 2010

in Blog

Climategate, Himalayagate, Pachaurigate, and now NOAAgate — it’s hard to keep up with all the relevations and allegations buzzing around some of the biggest names in climate science.  

Earlier this week in the Telegraph, the intrepid James Delingpole debuted “Amazongate.” Like Himalayagate, this is a case in which the IPCC relied on a World Wildlife Fund (WWF) report, rather than a peer-reviewed scientific study, to make a scary claim about global warming.

The IPCC (Working Group II, Ch. 13, p. 596) says that, “Up to 40% of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation” due to global warming. The IPCC’s reference for this claim is Rowell and Moore (2000), which turns out to be an IUCN/WWF report, Global Review of Forest Fires.  

The IUCN/WWF report does cite a peer-reviewed study to support the 40% estimate: Nepsted et al. 1999. Large – scale Impoverishment of Amazonian Forests by Logging and Fire, Nature, Vol. 398, p. 505. The study is available here

But the Neptsed study doesn’t quite say what WWF suggests it does. The study says: “Because of the severe drought of 1997 and 1998, we calculate that approximately 270,000 km2 of Amazonian forest had completely depleted plant-available water stored in the upper five metres of soil by the end of the 1998 dry season. In addition, 360,000 km2 of forest had less than 250mm of plant-available soil water left by this time . . .”

The IUCN/WWF report reproduces that statement almost verbatim:
“Up to 40% of the Brazilian forest is extremely sensitive to small reductions in the amount of rainfall. In the 1998 dry season, some 270,000 sq. km of forest became vulnerable to fire, due to completely depleted plant-available water stored in the upper five metres of soil. A further 360,000 sq. km of forest had only 250 mm of plant-available soil water left.”

However, IUCN/WWF’s paraphase adds something — the “up to 40%” estimate. That figure does not appear in Nepsted et al.

Since the Amazon rain forest is estimated at 8.2 million km2 (http://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/), it would seem that about 8% (630,000 km2) of the region was threatened by the drought in 1998, not 40%.

Note also that the terms “climate change” and “global warming” do not appear in the text of the Nepsted study (although footnote 14 references a paper titled “Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change”).

Apparently, the IPCC recycled two claims in the IUCN/WWF report that the report’s supposed source – Nepsted et al. (1999) — did not make: namely, 40% of the rain forest is risk, and this is due to global climate change.

There may be other reasons to conclude that climate change endangers 40% of the rain forest, but they are not to be found in Nepsted et al. (1999) — the source for the IPCC’s source.