Costco is removing its electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, citing lack of consumer demand, reports Jim Motavalli in the New York Times. Plug-In America, an EV advocacy group, has issued an “action alert” urging its members to email Costco CEO James Sinegal and ask him to maintain and upgrade the charging stations.  From Montavalli’s article:

Costco, the membership warehouse-club chain, was an early leader in offering electric-vehicle charging to its customers, setting an example followed by other retailers, including Best Buy and Walgreen. By 2006, Costco had installed 90 chargers at 64 stores, mostly in California but also some in Arizona, New York and Georgia. Even after General Motors crushed its EV1 battery cars, the Costco chargers stayed in place.

Yet just as plug-in cars like the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt enter the market, Costco is reversing course and pulling its chargers out of the ground, explaining that customers do not use them.

“We were early supporters of electric cars, going back as far as 15 years. But nobody ever uses them,” said Dennis Hoover, the general manager for Costco in northern California, in a telephone interview. “At our Folsom store, the manager said he hadn’t seen anybody using the E.V. charging in a full year. At our store in Vacaville, where we had six chargers, one person plugged in once a week.”

Mr. Hoover said that E.V. charging was “very inefficient and not productive” for the retailer. “The bottom line is that there are a lot of other ways to be green,” he said. “We have five million members in the region, and just a handful of people are using these devices.

Why is consumer demand for EVs – hence for charging stations – so low?

Most consumers cannot afford a battery electric car or a plug-in hybrid. The biggest part of the expense is the lithium-ion batteries that power EVs.

Three recent studies by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) shed light on this formidable barrier to consumer acceptance.

The Comeback of the Electric Car? How real, how soon, and what must happen next (2009) estimates that even if battery prices drop from about $2,000 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2008 to $700 per kWh in 2020, “a 20 kWh battery, which is needed for a driving range of 80 miles (about 130 kilometers) would still cost $14,000.” Absent tax rebates or other consumer subsidies, the five-year fuel savings would not offset the cost of the battery unless oil hits $280 a barrel.

Batteries for Electric Cars: Challenges, Opportunities, and Outlook to 2020 (2010) estimates that, excluding subsidies, consumers paid $1,400 to $1,800 per kWh for EV battery packs in 2009. The report projects that costs will fall to between $570 and $700 per kWh by 2020. However, that would still be more than twice the 2020 commercial viability cost target of $250 per kWh set by the United States Advanced Battery Consortium.

Most consumers won’t purchase an EV unless the reduction in fuel costs offsets the higher vehicle cost within three years, BCG’s 2010 study goes on to say. For U.S. purchasers of EVs in 2020 to break even in three years, some combination of the following conditions would have to obtain: “an oil price increase from $100 per barrel (the forecast price) to $300 per barrel; a 200 percent increase in gasoline prices caused by higher oil prices, higher taxes, or both; or $7,500 in government incentives available per car purchased, consistent with currently approved electric-vehicle incentives.”

The study projects that automakers will sell about 1.5 million fully electric vehicles and 1.5 million plug-in hybrids worldwide in 2020, capturing 3-5% of the passenger car market in developed countries. That’s not trivial, and maybe a decade from now Costco could operate EV recharging stations at a profit. But as of August 2011, only 8,000 EVs were sold (or delivered to showrooms?) in the USA – about 0.1% of total light duty U.S. vehicle sales in 2011.

Powering Autos to 2020: The Era of the Electric Car? (2011) contains, among other information, the results of survey research BCG conducted.

• Only 6% of U.S. and 9% of EU respondents in the survey were willing to buy a “green” car that costs more over the life of the vehicle.
• 38% of U.S. respondents were willing to pay $3,900 more on average for a “green” car if they can break even via fuel savings over time.
• A whopping 56% were not willing to buy a green car even if they could break even.
• Of those willing to spend more for a green car if fuel savings offset the higher purchase price, 71% expected a maximum payback time of 1-3 years.

The bottom line: EVs may some day be a smart choice for cost-conscious consumers, but a mass market is unlikely to develop in the next decade. From which I conclude that Costco understands its customers better than its green critics do.

“Can electric vehicles change the game?” That’s the question Edison Electric Institute President Tom Kuhn poses this week on National Journal’s energy blog.  

I answer in the negative, pointing out, for example, that even if electric vehicle battery prices drop by 65%, the five-year fuel savings would not offset the additional up-front purchase price unless oil hits $280 a barrel (according to Boston Consulting Group).  You can read my response and those of other wonks and activists at NationalJournal.Com.

Here, I would like to share (with permission) the reaction of an industry expert who read the National Journal blog posts:

I think there are many problems with electric vehicles, we will find they are not any better than wind power.

They cost twice as much as equivalent gasoline vehicles. If customers won’t pay an extra 5k for a hybrid that gets 50mpg, why will they pay an extra $15-20k for an electric one?

Once we get past the first few buyers, the early intenders, we will see what true demand is.

Folks have to pay up to $2k for a home charging station if they dont want to wait 10-12 hours or more to charge it up.

A new malady will be created, range anxiety.

The volt is not a true electric vehicle, it is another form of hybrid, administration gave it the $7.5k credit anyway, which was wrong.

Cost of batteries does not go down with higher production due to the use of hard to find, expensive, rare minerals.

The concept is fine, but this is not really going to work, unless costs are similar to gas cars, range is increased to 200+, and recharge time is significantly reduced.