The first chart shows the divergence between models and observations in the global lower atmosphere. The second shows the divergence between models and observations in the tropical bulk atmosphere. Note in both charts there is only one model, the Russian INM-CM4 represented by the purple spaghetti line in the second graph, accurately tracks observations in the tropical troposphere. For clearer images of those figures, click on Link 1 and Link 2.

Cato Institute scholars Patrick Michaels and Ryan Maue recently updated Pat’s chart listing studies since 2011 that estimate lower climate sensitivities than the average sensitivity of both the CMIP5 models used by the IPCC to project climate change impacts and the Row-Baker probability distribution underpinning the Obama administration’s social cost of carbon estimates.

I tried posting the chart but it loses too much resolution. So I am making it available via this link. Enjoy.

 

 

 

 

The George C. Marshall Institute no longer exists and the organization’s superb monograph, “Connecting Climate Change and National Security,” is not easy to find. The topic is hot once again a hot topic. So, I am pleased to post the study here. Enjoy!

Connecting Climate Change and National Security

Due to some glitch, my comment letter on the Obama EPA’s proposed “Carbon Pollution” Standards for new fossil fuel power plants was never posted on CEI’s Web site. So I am posting it here.

Marlo Lewis, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Comment on Standards of Performance for Greenhouse Gas Emissions for New Stationary Sources: Electric Generating Units, Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0495, May 9, 2014

 

The House is expected to vote this week on H.Con.Res.119 expressing the sense of Congress that a carbon tax is detrimental to the U.S. economy. The House passed similar legislation in June 2016 by 237 to 163, with six Democrats voting in favor and no Republicans voting against.

The vote is apparently timed to put House members on record once again before Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R.-Fla.), co-chair of the so-called Climate Solutions Caucus, introduces a carbon tax bill he reportedly has been shopping to colleagues, businesses, and environmental groups. [click to continue…]

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is expected to release the proposed Clean Power Plan repeal rule on Tuesday, October 10. Someone leaked the proposal on Friday, October 6. To read it, click here.

On Thursday, July 20, 2017, the Senate Judiciary Committee will vote on President Trump’s nomination of Kirkland & Ellis attorney Jeffrey Bossert Clark to be Assistant Attorney General in the Department of Justice’s Environment and Natural Resources Division (ENRD).

To help inform public discussion of the nomination, I post below several pertinent documents. [click to continue…]

SJW-day at COP22

by William Yeatman on November 18, 2016

in Blog

Guest post by Rupert Darwall

Last Tuesday, an event of such magnitude struck the latest round of the climate conference – talks which have been going on in various forms since the early 1990s – that the response of many participants and NGOs is to pretend nothing’s happened and carry on as before. Today is gender and education day at the COP22 in Marrakech. Gender equality and the empowerment of women is written into the preamble of last December’s Paris Agreement, the climate treaty that President Obama ratified without sending to the Senate for its advice and consent. ‘Gender justice is climate justice,’ as one feminist NGO puts it.

There are Feminists for a Fossil Fuel Free Future. You can download a Gender Climate Tracker app for iPhone and Android. ‘Our existing economies are based on gender exploitative relationships,’ one speaker told a side meeting. ‘The first ecology is my body,’ another declared. Sexual and reproductive rights require climate justice. ‘Sixty percent of my body is water. What I’m drinking takes me to my city and to the health of the planet.’

The climate change negotiations are a never-ending process symbolized by the initial adorning every poster and lectern at the conference.  Marrakech is the 22nd conference of the parties under the 1992 UN framework convention on climate change  – COP 22; the twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the parties to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol  – CMP 12; and the first session of the conference of the parties serving as the meeting of the parties to the Paris Agreement  – CMA1.

Far from creating institutional overload, climate change is much more than it might appear to the naïve observer. It is about remoulding society and changing the global economy. It has set in motion a process that accretes constituencies and sucks in government agencies as it extends its scope and strengthens its hold by creating the justification for huge slush funds of climate finance. Marrakech sees parties being urged to raise their ambition from $100bn a year of annual climate funding to $500bn. It creates a momentum that seems unstoppable.  As President Obama’s climate envoy, Jonathan Pershing, pointed out today, it was a Republican Congress that extended subsidies for wind and solar. ‘It’s not going to stop in a context of a change of administration,’ Pershing pointedly added.

Well, it might do just that. When in 1982, Al Haig asked Ronald Reagan why he was rejecting the Law of the Sea, Reagan replied: ‘Al, that’s what the last election was all about … It was about not doing things just because that’s the way they’ve been done before.’ The Paris Agreement and the Obama Administration’s Clean Power Plan which is its domestic counterpart would, if implemented, damage the United States far more than the Law of the Sea ever could have done. But the answer is the same as Reagan’s. Quit the whole damn shebang.

In a recent letter to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, Troutman Sanders attorney Peter Glaser argues that “EPA far understated the effects of the Clean Power Plan (CPP) by exaggerating the amount of coal generation that will retire even without the rule.” Ironically, the smoking gun evidence is in the agency’s updated modeling, which now tallies with U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

Here’s how the numbers break down.

In EPA’s “base case” for the CPP, the agency assumed that in 2016, almost 20 percent of coal capacity would disappear even if the rule were not adopted, reducing coal generation to 214 gigawatts (GW).

However, EPA’s Cross State Air Pollution Rule Update, published October 26, estimates there will be 268 GW of coal generation in service through the end of 2016.

EPA’s new estimate for 2016 is now roughly in line with Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. EIA’s Electric Power Monthly shows 272 GW of coal capacity in service as of August 2016.

EPA estimates coal generation capacity under the Power Plan will decline to 174-183 GW by 2030 (Regulatory Impact Assessment, Table 3-12).

Bottom line: To comply with the CPP, U.S. coal generation will have to decline by about one third.

 

On Tuesday, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals released a 320-page transcript of the marathon oral argument on EPA’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emission standards for existing fossil-fuel power plants, the agency’s so-called Clean Power Plan (CPP). 

To my knowledge, the transcript is not available on the Court’s Web site. To make the document more easily accessible to the public, I am pleased to post it on GlobalWarming.Org.

To read/download the oral argument, click on the highlighted text in the first paragraph above.