2004

In a press release issued August 10 assessing the state of nuclear power worldwide, the International Atomic Energy Agency regretted the lack of progress on Kyoto.


The relevant section reads, From the viewpoint of the IAEA, no progress was made in 2003 on the Kyoto Protocol, which would help make nuclear powers avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions valuable to investors.  The next round of talks on energy and sustainable development is scheduled for the 13th session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development in 20062007.


A large increase in the supply of energy will be required in coming decades to power economic development, the IAEA recognizes, projecting that to the year 2030 the part nuclear power will play in the global energy supply will first grow and then decrease.


The agency estimates a 20 percent increase in global nuclear generation until the end of 2020, followed by a decrease, resulting in global nuclear generation in 2030 that will be only 12 percent higher than in 2002.  Nuclear powers share of global electricity generation is projected at 12 percent in 2030, compared with 16 percent in 2002, the IAEA said.


The agency expressed concern that the nuclear expertise that exists today might not be passed on to the next generation of scientists and engineers, now that the rapid nuclear expansion of the 1970s and 1980s has leveled off.

Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson strongly criticized the lawsuit recently launched by eight state Attorneys General against several electricity generators for creating a public nuisance by contributing to global warming (Aug. 11).


Samuelson concluded his argument, It’s easy to be against global warming but not easy to be for the things that might control it.  Barring some magical technological breakthrough, lowering U.S. emissions would require some or all of the following: tougher regulation or higher gasoline prices to force drivers into smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles; restrictions on coal-burning power plants; encouragement of nuclear power; expansion of drilling for natural gas and more imports of liquefied natural gas; and regulations or tax penalties to discourage large homes.


No judge should try to impose new policies. These issues belong in the political arena, not the courts.  But even if the United States embraced tough anti-global warming policiesand other industrial countries did the samethe effect would be offset unless developing countries joined.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected that greenhouse emissions will more than triple over the next century under business as usual assumptions.  Virtually all the increase occurs in developing countries.


Spitzer and his allies can’t change any of this. Their suit mainly allows them to advertise themselves to people who don’t know better. Here’s Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal sounding off:


Our lawsuit is a huge, historic first step toward holding companies accountable for these pernicious pollutants that threaten our health, economy, environment, and quality of life now and increasingly in the future.  The eventual effects . . . [will be] increasing asthma and heat-related illnesses, eroding shorelines, floods and other natural disasters, loss of forests and other precious resources.


Actually, this contains considerable distortion. In truth, no one knows how much the world will warm, exactly when or with what consequences.  Any self-respecting judge will dismiss this suitand do more. Because the only point is political self-promotion, the judge ought to require the attorneys general to pay court costs and defendants’ costs from their own pockets. There’s a name for what the attorneys general are making of themselves: a public nuisance.

Margot Wallstrom of Sweden has been promoted in the new European Union Commission to head the commissions communications efforts.  She has been replaced as Environment Commissioner by Stavros Dimas of Greece


Dimas, from the Greek conservative party New Democracy, is believed to be less personally committed to environmentalism than Wallstrom.  Recent months had seen Wallstrom argue publicly with Energy Commissioner Loyola de Palacio of Spain over the economic effects of the Kyoto Protocol.


Dimas appointment has already worried some in Europes powerful green movement.  Under the headline, All hope is lost, the Guardians environment correspondent John Vidal wrote (Aug. 18):


 If the European Commission really wanted to signal that it didn’t give a monkey’s [British slang for couldnt care less] about the environment then it would probably choose as its new environment commissioner an old, rightwing free-marketeer lawyer who used to work for the World Bank and had responsibility for Africa in the bad old 1970s.  Impossible?  Not in the slightest.  Welcome Stavros Dimas, 62, Greek economist, Wall Street banker, and conservative lawyer.  The fragile hopes of Europe‘s mountains, rivers, climate and forests rest on you.

Washington, D.C. According to a new study appearing in the August 13 issue of the journal Science, We already have the technology we need to take the world off the path toward dramatic climate change. But a cursory glance at the advance summary reveals that the study, conducted by Princeton Environmental Institutes Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI), is completely out of touch with economic, political, and environmental reality.


 


The forthcoming study claims that each of 15 recommended strategies could eliminate up to 1 billion tons annually of carbon emissions by 2054, though by not considering their costs the authors make their recommendations useless as public policy proposals. The study basically says that if you coerce everybody to use a lot less energy and dont care about the cost, you can significantly reduce emissions, said Competitive Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Marlo Lewis. We needed Princeton University to tell us that?


 


CMIs Strategy 1 is to double the fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg. However, the average passenger car in the U.S. got 21.4 mpg in 1999, and the average light truck 17.1 mpg, so CMI is really proposing to triple fuel economy. Dont they know how politically difficult it is to mandate even small mpg increases? Their proposal would either eliminate todays most popular vehiclesSUVs, pickups, and large sedansor price them out of reach of working families, said Lewis.


 


CMIs Strategy 2 is to decrease the number of car miles traveled by half. But the U.S. population could easily increase by half or more by 2054. This strategy is tantamount to rationing carscommuters and soccer moms should just love it.


 


CMI Strategy 5 is to replace 1,400 coal electric plants with natural gas-powered facilities. But America is already facing a multi-billion dollar natural gas supply crunch. This strategy would wreak havoc upon consumer electricity bills.


 


CMI Strategy 9 is to add double the current global nuclear capacity to replace coal-based electricity. This proposal should go over big with the no-nukes environmental establishment.


 


CMI Strategy 10 is to increase wind capacity by 50 times relative to today, for a total of 2 million large windmills. The word boondoggle was invented for just such proposals, and in case CMI has not heard, theres a growing grassroots backlash against wind farms.


 


CMI Strategy 13 is to increase ethanol production 50 times by creating biomass plantations with an area equal to 1/6th of world cropland. This strategy is a prescription for decimating millions of acres of forest and other wildlife habitat. I thought environmentalists liked trees and wildlife, but I guess these days anyone can qualify as long as they embrace the Kyoto agenda of climate alarmism and energy rationing.


 


 









Energy Expert Available for Interviews


Marlo Lewis


Senior Fellow


202-669-6693 mobile


marlolewis@adelphia.net


Recently seen in: The Wall Street Journal, Gannett News, Roll Call, & International Environment Daily, among others.


 


CEI is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy group dedicated to the principles of free enterprise and limited government.  For more information about CEI, please visit our website at www.cei.org

Extreme weather conditions in the Great Plains, specifically dust bowls, have long been a natural occurrence, according to a recent Duke University study.

Jim Clark, H.L. Blomquist Professor of Biology at Duke Universitys Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, summarizes: “What would happen was that the grass would disappear [because of naturally occurring droughts]. So the fuel for fire would be lost. We’d see the erosion start. The chemistry of the lakes would change. We would see these dust-bowl effects. And then, within several decades to a century later, the grasses would come back, fires would start back up and erosion would stop.”

According to Clark, the regularity of these ancient droughts make much more recent Great Plains droughts in the 1890s and 1930s appear “unremarkable” by comparison, even though the contemporary ones “walloped people.” An understanding that extreme weather events have long occurred seriously puts in to question environmentalists assumptions that human activity causes extreme weather events. In fact, Clark went so far as to say, “It’s not only climate change from changing CO2 content in the atmosphere, but also this natural variability out there that we don’t fully understand.” (Duke University press release, Aug. 2).

The Bush Administrations Climate Change Science Program is beginning the first of 21 major climate assessments despite a fiscal crunch. The first assessment addresses the long-running debate over whether discrepancies exist between warming rates at the Earths surface and readings taken from the middle troposphere, where most weather occurs.

The apparent difference between the rate of warming at the Earth’s surface and the middle layer of the atmosphere has proven to be one of the most enduring issues of contention in climate change science. Computer models used to simulate climate conditions predict faster warming in the mid-troposphere than on the ground, while observations taken from satellites and weather balloons have contradicted those predictions by showing that the surface has warmed at least twice as fast as the atmosphere since 1980. This disparity has led many to criticize computer model results, which are the bedrock of climate change projections, as unreliable.

Critics of the new study question its value. “The big challenge is, are they going to say anything different than the academy concluded a couple of years ago?” asked Anthony Janetos of the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, referring to a 2000 National Research Council study on the temperature data that concluded that both surface and satellite data sets were accurate, but did not account for the disparity.

The study does have supporters, such as John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville, who along with colleague Roy Spencer developed the satellite temperature dataset. Christy believes the CCSP research is essential to take into account the peer-reviewed studies that have been published in the past two to three years. “An update at a minimum is what’s needed on this issue,” Christy said.

The study will be completed despite the tight monetary crunch the CCSP must deal with. Janetos believes “the prospects for a lot of new funding are really quite dim.” This is largely because the Bush Administration’s fiscal year 2005 budget request for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would eliminate the government’s abrupt climate change research program as well as cut its paleoclimatology laboratory by half, potentially compromising the agency’s ability to conduct climate research (Greenwire, July 28).

In a case of the bugbear of the 1980s meeting the hobgoblin of the 1990s, scientists have found that acid rain can slow global warming by reducing methane emissions from natural wetland areas.

The new study, led by Vincent Gauci of Britains Open University together with colleagues at NASA and published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, finds that acid rain counteracts the natural production of methane gases by microbes in wetland areas.

As New Scientist says (Aug. 3), “Methane is thought to account for 22 percent of the human-enhanced greenhouse effect. And microbes in wetland areas are its biggest producers. They feed off substrates such as hydrogen and acetate in peat and emit methane into the atmosphere.”

The theory is that global warming itself will speed up the production of methane, “as heating up the microbes causes them to produce even more methane. But the new model suggests that sulphur [sic] pollution from industry cancels this out. This is because sulphur-eating bacteria also found in wetland regions outcompete the methane-emitting microbes for substrates. Experiments have shown that sulphur deposits can reduce methane production in small regions by up to 30 per cent by activating sulphur-eating bacteria.”

Atmospheric concentrations of methane have leveled off in the past few years.

In a new paper published in the International Journal of Climatology (24; 329-339), Georg Kaser of the University of Innsbruck and colleagues from the University of Massachussets, Amherst, and the Tanzania Meteorological Agency provide more proof that the snows of Kilimanjaro are disappearing owing to factors other than global warming.

In “Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as Evidence of Climate Change: Observations and Facts,” Kaser et al. “develop a new concept for investigating the retreat of Kilimanjaros glaciers, based on the physical understanding of glacierclimate interactions.”

They say, “The concept considers the peculiarities of the mountain and implies that climatological processes other than air temperature control the ice recession in a direct manner. A drastic drop in atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19th century and the ensuing drier climatic conditions are likely forcing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro.”

The authors reference another study, soon to be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. According to them, “Mlg and Hardy (2004) show that mass loss on the summit horizontal glacier surfaces is mainly due to sublimation (i.e. turbulent latent heat flux) and is little affected by air temperature through the turbulent sensible heat flux.”

A new report from Cambridge Econometrics finds that, “The [British] governments 20 percent domestic carbon-reduction goal is likely to be missed by a large margin” (Bloomberg News, July 30). The forecasters suggest that emissions will only be 12.3 percent down on 1990 levels. Emissions from power generation will drop by 5.5 percent, but emissions from domestic and transportation sources will rise.

The study also found that United Kingdom participation in the controversial European Union emissions-trading plan alone won’t be enough to cut British emissions to the government target, although it did conclude that the UK is “expected easily to meet its target under the Kyoto Protocol” (to reduce emissions by 12.5 percent by 2012 from 1990 levels).

Cambridge Econometrics also concluded that emissions from road transport will rise by 14 percent by 2010 from 1990 levels.

In related news, the Guardian reported (July 29) that the UK government is to, “press on with plans to build 120,000 homes in the Thames Gateway flood plain despite accepting the increased chance of flooding disasters due to global warming.” The announcement said that, “New homes on floodplains would have to be sited and designed to ensure that they were flood resilient.”

This action, placing current needs over future worries, may reflect the current state of public opinion in the UK. A BBC poll (taken in mid-July to coincide with a series of BBC television programs pushing the alarmist case on global warming) found that climate change finished at the bottom of a list of seven “important issues” facing the UK, below even immigration. Of the respondents, 53 percent thought Britain would be affected “only a little” or “not at all” by climate change. Finally, while most respondents said that they would be willing to change their lifestyles to combat global warming, only low-cost options were popular. A mere 37 percent would be willing to pay more for gasoline.

Japan is considering taxing consumers of fossil fuels, including petroleum and coal, in their latest plans to meet their targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To ensure that Japanese business does not suffer, steel makers and other businesses using coal and oil as fuel would be given tax waivers or receive lower rates.

The environment ministry expects tax revenues of roughly 600 billion yen (US$5.4 billion) a year. With approximately 45 million households in Japan, this will cost each household roughly $120 per year.

Specific tax amounts will be determined according to carbon dioxide emission volume and added to gasoline prices, electricity fees, and the like. Under the ministry’s draft proposal, a tax of slightly more than 1 yen (US$0.009) would be imposed for each liter of gasoline. The revenues would be used to finance energy-saving policies.

The ministry will present this proposal to the Liberal Democratic Partys environmental research council Thursday. The ministry hopes to incorporate their proposal into fiscal 2005 tax reform. (Asia Pulse/Nikkei, Aug. 3).