2004

NASA confirms role of land use in climate change

by William Yeatman on March 30, 2004

in Science

Using the NASA Ecosystem Demography model to trace the evolution of vegetation distribution in the US over the past 300 years, researchers at Princeton University have confirmed that land use changes have significantly affected the US climate.

According to the NASA press release, “The researchers found land cover changes produced a significant cooling effect of more than one degree Fahrenheit in parts of the Great Plains and Midwest as agriculture expanded and replaced grasslands. Farmlands tend to create lower temperatures through increased evaporation. A warming effect was found along the Atlantic coast where croplands replaced forests.

“Compared to forests, croplands are less efficient in transpiration; a daytime process where water evaporates from leaves during photosynthesis and cools the air. A slight warming effect was also observed across the Southwest, where woodlands replaced some deserts.

“The study found land cover changes could impact local precipitation, but not as significantly as they affect temperature. The relatively strong cooling over the central U.S. has probably weakened the temperature difference between land and the Gulf of Mexico, slowing the northern movement of weather systems and resulting in enhanced rainfall across Texas. Consequently, the air masses reaching the Central Lowlands region, including Illinois and Indiana, are drier, causing rainfall reductions.”

Lead researcher N. J. Roy said, “It is important to understand the effects of changing land cover, because it can mitigate or exacerbate greenhouse warming. In the U.S. over the past 100 years, it seems to be offsetting greenhouse warming. The opposite is probably true in most other parts of the world. This finding has also been supported in previous research.”

Nothing to fear from tropical diseases

by William Yeatman on March 30, 2004

in Science

The invaluable www.co2science.org, run by Drs. Sherwood, Craig, and Keith Idso, draws attention this month to two important articles on the reality behind the supposed spread of tropical diseases in a warmer world.

First, Reiter et al. (in Emerging Infectious Diseases 9) examine the response of dengue fever in a significant outbreak in Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico in 1999. As co2science.org summarizes, they learned that, “The incidence of recent cases, indicated by immunoglobulin M antibody serosurvey, was higher in Nuevo Laredo [16.0% vs. 1.3%], although the vector, Aedes aegypti, was more abundant in Laredo [91% vs. 37%].  Reiter et al. additionally determined that environmental factors that affect contact with mosquitoes, such as air-conditioning and human behavior, appear to account for this paradox.  They found, for example, that the proportion of dengue infections attributable to lack of air-conditioning in Nuevo Laredo [where only 2% of the homes had central air-conditioning compared to 36% of the homes in Laredo] was 55%, which means that 55% of the cases of dengue in Nuevo Laredo would not have occurred if all households there had had air-conditioning.”

Co2science.org summarizes, “Reiter et al. correctly conclude, for example, that if the current warming trend in world climates continues, air-conditioning may become even more prevalent in the United States, in which case, the probability of dengue transmission [there] is likely to decrease [our italics].  And if the economy of Mexico continues to grow (which it will, if its citizens are allowed to freely utilize fossil fuels), the use of air-conditioners will likely gain momentum south of the border, which would lead to even greater decreases in the occurrence of dengue there.

“Clearly, the development of wealth, which currently is dependent on the availability of fossil-fuel-derived energy, will lead to greater decreases in mosquito-borne diseases than any change or stasis of climate ever would.”

The other article, Small et al. (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100), looks at the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa. According to the Idsos, the researchers “determined that malaria transmission suitability did indeed increase because of climate change in specific locations of limited extent; but in Southern Mozambique, which was the only region for which climatic suitability consistently increased, the cause of the increase was increased precipitation, while areas where the climate became less suitable for malaria transmission had all experienced decreased rainfall.  In fact, Small et al. say that climate warming, expressed as a systematic temperature increase over the 85-year period, does not appear to be responsible for an increase in malaria suitability over any [our italics] region in Africa.”

EU Auto Manufacturers Wake Up to Kyotos Costs

by William Yeatman on March 30, 2004

in Kyoto Negotiations

The European trade group for auto manufacturers has voiced its objections to EU emissions reduction plans privately. According to Scotlands Sunday Herald (Mar. 21), “A confidential memo from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association to the Environment Commissioner, Margot Wallstrm, claims that the proposed cuts will seriously damage the industry. The association represents Ford, General Motors, DaimlerChrysler, BMW, Fiat, Renault, Peugeot Citroen, Volvo, Volkswagen and four others.”

The Herald says that the memo suggests that the emissions cuts from 165 grams of CO2 per kilometer in 2002 to 120 by 2010 would raise the cost of a car by 2,700 (nearly $5,000) at an annual cost to the EU of 33.5 billion ($60 billion).

The memo states, “Car buyers are not prepared to pay any extra for cleaner, more environmentally-friendly cars. An over-ambitious carbon dioxide reduction policy that is essentially only car-technology focused, would impose massive additional costs per car along with tremendous negative societal costs for the EU economy, and would threaten the competitiveness of the European car manufacturing industry. Adverse impacts for the EU economy would include: a move of car production to non-EU countries, disappearance of large/premium cars, plant closures, sizeable job losses, decreased trade balance, reduced income tax and lowered economic growth.”

The memo was backed up by one from the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, which represents Nissan, Honda, Toyota, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Yamaha and six other car makers. The Japanese memo says, “Considering the increasing trend towards globalization, competition in todays automobile industry is getting extremely fierce. We advise that the economic situation of this key industry be taken into account when considering the introduction of increased environmental legislation.”

Environmental groups reacted angrily to the documents. Duncan McLaren of Friends of the Earth Scotland told the Herald, “The EC must stand up to the car industry on this issue. If the industry fails to deliver on its promises then the EC should legislate to force it to cut pollution. Past experience tells us that the threat of legislation is the best way to stimulate real improvements and technological innovations.”

Wind Power Slowing Down

by William Yeatman on March 30, 2004

in Blog

Danish wind power consultancy BTM predicts that the huge recent growth in the global wind power market will slow to an expansion of 10 percent per year over the next five years (Reuters, Mar. 19). That figure is less than half the average growth of 26.3 percent seen over the period 1998-2003.

A record 8,344 MW of wind power generation was installed in 2003, but the figure this year is expected to be down by 4 percent. The total installation worldwide is now over 40,000 MW, enough to power 16 million European homes. Europe continues to account for two-thirds of installed megawattage.

BTM expects wind power to take off again after 2008, with new installations then exceeding 25,000 MW per year, taking the total industry to 194,000 MW. This is largely dependent on large scale offshore developments in Germany and Britain after 2007.

New Zealand Frozen Out of Market by EU Cartel

by William Yeatman on March 30, 2004

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics

According to the New Zealand Herald (Mar. 20), New Zealands recipients of emissions credits may be unable to sell them in their biggest potential market, the European Union.

The newspaper points out that, “The rules proposed by the European Commission, and now adopted with some amendments by the European Parliament’s environment committee, would shut out from the European emissions trading system credits arising from Kyoto forests – those planted since 1990 on land not previously forested – because they do not achieve permanent emission reduction from sources.”

New Zealand had been expecting to use these credits to cover growth in its emissions and provide a further 50 million metric tons of credits to sell to Europe. As an example, one company, Meridian Energy, sold credits it had received as a subsidy for its wind farm operation to the Netherlands government at NZ$10 a ton.

The Herald quoted Federated Farmers president Tom Lambie as suggesting, “If New Zealand was unable to sell credits to the Europeans, it raised a question about whether New Zealand should remain a party to the protocol.”

Cap-and-trade bill is introduced in House

by William Yeatman on March 30, 2004

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics

litionRepresentatives Wayne Gilchrest (RMd.) and John Olver (DMass.) introduced on March 30 a House version of S. 139, the Climate Stewardship Act, known as the Lieberman-McCain bill after its two chief Senate proponents. Ten Republicans and ten Democrats joined as original co-sponsors of H. R. 4067.

The bill was referred to the Science Committee and to the Energy and Commerce Committee. One of the co-sponsors is Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (RN.Y.), chairman of the House Science Committee. However, Rep. Joe Barton (RTex.), the new chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, has a long record of opposition to energy-rationing legislation. A weaker version of S. 139 was defeated on the floor of the Senate last fall by a vote of 43 to 55.

Economy Beats Greens in German Emissions Compromise

by William Yeatman on March 30, 2004

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics

Several members of the European Union are having a hard time complying with the EU Commissions deadline for filing their detailed plans for meeting Europes Kyoto targets. The German government was rocked by open political warfare between the governments Socialist Party Economics Minister, Wolfgang Clement, and its Green Party Environment Minister, Juergen Tritten, until Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder personally intervened on the side of Clement.

Tritten had proposed emissions reductions from the current level of 505 million metric tons per annum to 488 million tons in 2005-2007 and to 480 million tons in 2008-2012. Clement, a key figure in Schroeders unpopular but necessary economic reforms, had objected strongly to these targets, saying, “Growth isn’t possible that way. I can’t support that as Economy Minister” (Reuters, Mar. 26). Schroeder decided on minimal cuts in the near future, with a target of 503 million tones in 2005-2007, followed by a deeper cut to 495 million tons in 2008-2012 (AP, Mar. 30).

The powerful German environmental movement reacted furiously to the news. Greenpeace energy policy expert Sven Teske told the German news wire DPA (Mar. 30) that the agreement “has nothing more in common” with the Greens’ policies.

“With this compromise, Red-Green [the ruling SPD-Greens coalition] has bowed out from climate protection,” Teske said. DPA concluded, “Clement, by rigidly defending industry’s interests, had cast a dark taint on the credibility of German climate policy, the Greenpeace expert charged.”

The argument seems to have affected Herr Schroeders attitudes towards energy suppression agreements like Kyoto. On March 26, he publicly questioned whether the EU should go ahead with its plans to implement Kyoto targets in the absence of Russian ratification. Reuters reported (Mar. 26) that he told a news conference, “We hope that Kyoto will be ratified, for example by Russia. But if that doesn’t happen, it will distort competition at the expense of European and especially German economy.” Reuters went on, “Without giving a direct answer, he asked: What happens with the emissions trading system if Kyoto is not ratified?”

Connecticut Bill Aims at Slowing State Economy

by William Yeatman on March 30, 2004

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics

The Connecticut state legislature is currently considering SB.595, which aims to reduce the states greenhouse gas emissions using Kyoto-like measures.  The bill has passed out of a joint committee and has the backing of the Governor.  Section 3 of the bill seeks to mandate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2010; 10% below 1990 levels by 2020; and 75% to 85% below 2001 levels by 2050 (unless another year is set). 

 A study by Charles River Associates for the American Legislative Exchange Council brings home the effects of the bill on the quality of life of Connecticut residents.  The study finds, A conservative estimate is that costs per Connecticut household of meeting these caps would be between $700 and $1300 per year over the next three decades, accompanied by the loss of about 20,000 jobs.  Connecticuts state product would be reduced by about 1.3% from baseline levels by 2020, and these losses would either remain stable or grow, depending on whether costs of sequestration level decline or remain constant.  The states budget problems would be worsened, with lower wages and incomes leading to a loss in tax collections of about $250 million per year by 2010.  Moreover, the bill would directly impose costs on the state to set up the trading system, and would raise energy costs for state and local governments.

Lewis Andrews of the Yankee Institute in Connecticut goes further, saying in an op-ed that the bill could cost Connecticut as much as $8.1 billion.  He concludes, Connecticut facing record budget deficits due to lower-than-expected revenues in 2002 and 2003 should not adopt an overly ambitious greenhouse gas reduction program that costs taxpayer dollars, destroys jobs, and does nothing to protect the environment.

 Copies of the Charles River Associates study are available by request from the American Legislative Exchange Council (www.alec.org).

Global Warming: The Movie

by William Yeatman on March 25, 2004

in Politics, Science

Coming to a multiplex near you on May 28 is the global warming disaster movie, “The Day After Tomorrow.” Ive only seen the trailer, but my money is on the movie, not global warming, being the disaster.

Featuring sensational but implausible weather phenomena ― such as tornadoes ripping through Los Angeles, a blizzard in New Delhi, grapefruit-sized hail pounding Tokyo and a single day sweltering-to-freezing temperature change in New York City ― the movie’s unmistakable purpose is to scare us into submitting to the Greens’ agenda: domination of society through control of energy resources.

This column has addressed Green extremism and global warming many times in the past ― “Eco-Imperialism’s Deadly Consequences” ; “Global Warming not a WMD”; and “Global Warmers Admit No Solutions,” for example. So suffice it to say that there’s no credible evidence humans are altering global climate in any measurable way and, to the extent that global climate is changing ― as it always has and always will ― there’s nothing that humans can do about that change except to adapt.  

The oldest movie marketing strategy in the world is to tie in to some swirl of controversy ― it sells tickets. These filmmakers go one step further by pointing an accusing finger at each one of us with their plea to go “carbon-neutral.”

The film’s producers say they discovered that they were actually contributing to global warming by making the movie. To compensate for putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, they decided to go carbon-neutral ― a mix of energy conservation and tree planting, they claim, helped make up for their eco-error.

“It’s a small part of a very big problem, but it’s a start,” the producers reasoned. For what the rest of us can do, we’re directed to a Web site called futureforests.com, where you’ll learn that you (unfortunately) produce carbon dioxide, “well, just by living.”

Futureforests.com says you need to “make a commitment to reduce your emissions and have that published” and “buy products, which will compensate for every ton of carbon dioxide you produce, or buy gifts which neutralize a friend’s emissions.”

Futureforests.com also features a celebrity section where you can learn about what celebrities are doing to go carbon-neutral. The rock band Foo Fighters , for example, is also planting trees as their personal contribution to fighting global warming.

“We measured the amount of carbon dioxide” created by the production, manufacture and distribution of [the band’s latest album] and [we are] planting enough trees in the Tensas River forest and wildlife reserve in Louisiana, to re-absorb that carbon dioxide over their lifetime,” said the band.

But if global warming were a real problem and planting trees were the answer, forest products giant Weyerhaeuser would seem to have already solved a good part of the problem with the 130 million trees it plants every year.

The filmmakers’ nauseating elitism, ignorance and politics are displayed on the Web site, which features personal responses of the filmmakers to dopey questions such as “One last day, where on Earth would you spend it?”

Director Roland Emmerich said he’s spend his in “my house in Puerto Vallarta.” Editor David Brenner said, “On Kauai … as soon as they get a Starbucks.” VFX supervisor Karen Goulekas said, “Having a party on the beach in front of my house in Marina Del Ray.” Actor Jake Gyllenhall said “On Martha’s Vineyard, with all my friends.”

“Your message to the world, given a billboard for one final day, what would you put or say on it?,” is another deep question asked of the filmmakers. Writer Jeffrey Nachmanoff said, “Out of 20 million species, why is there always one who has to go out and ruin it for the others?” Emmerich said “No more Bush.”

Many of the cast and crew have yet to respond on the Web site to these and other penetrating inquiries ― I can hardly wait to learn more about why we should take global warming seriously. So far, global warming appears to be just an excuse for Hollywood hedonism, human-bashing and electing John Kerry.

The movie’s undeniable political overtones verge on the irresponsible, especially in an election year. Aside from the director’s acknowledged anti-Bush sentiment, the actor who plays the evil U.S. vice president has more than a coincidental physical resemblance to Vice President Dick Cheney.

The film is not rated yet, but perhaps the Motion Picture Association of America will consider a new rating for The Day After Tomorrow ― a zero.

Steven Milloy is the publisher of JunkScience.com, an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute and the author of Junk Science Judo: Self-Defense Against Health Scares and Scams (Cato Institute, 2001).

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Nature Ignores Science on Greenland Ice Shelf; NASA Finds Global Climate Models Overestimate Warming

by William Yeatman on March 16, 2004

in Science

Nature Ignores Science on Greenland Ice Shelf

A feature article, Rising Tide, in the March 11 issue of Nature claims that global warming is melting Greenlands ice so rapidly that the whole ice sheet may melt and cause sea levels to rise significantly. However, as the Greening Earth Societys World Climate Alert (http://www.co2andclimate.org/wca/2004/wca_14d.html) points out, the Nature article is at variance with published scientific research, which finds that Greenland warmed rapidly in the 1920s without causing disastrous melting of the ice sheet, but has been in a cooling trend since 1940. 

The most recent of a number of research articles that contradict Nature is Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet, by P. Chylek, J. E. Box, and G. Lesins, which appears in the March issue of Climate Change.  The articles abstract says, Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone predominantly a cooling trend.   At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet, the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987.  This suggests that the Greenland ice sheet and coastal regions are not following the current global warming trend.

The authors found the most pronounced warming in the 1920s when the average annual surface air temperature rose between 2C and 4C in less than 10 yearsat a time when the change in anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases was well below the current level.

World Climate Alert points out, A 1C warming of the coastal stations would cause an increase in the melt area of 73,000 square kilometers, as Chylek et al. note.  Given the 1C to nearly 2C cooling found in the coastal stations, Chyleks team makes this conservative statement, The results are inconclusive for the ice sheet as a whole, owing to the large uncertainties when balancing very large, difficult to measure, offsetting quantities.  They add, Even the direction in which the mass of the Greenland ice sheet is currently changing is in dispute.  In other words, anyone who claims Greenland is melting wont find a lot of support in the scientific literature.

NASA Finds Global Climate Models Overestimate Warming

A NASA press release dated March 16 contains interesting news for those who have disputed the strength of positive water vapor feedback effects in global climate models.

The release states, A NASA-funded study found some climate models might be overestimating the amount of water vapor entering the atmosphere as the Earth warms.  Since water vapor is the most important heat-trapping greenhouse gas in our atmosphere, some climate forecasts may be overestimating future temperature increases.

Ken Minschwaner, a physicist at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, N.M., and Andrew Dessler, a researcher with the University of Maryland, College Park, and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., did the study.  It is in the March 15 issue of the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate.  The researchers used data on water vapor in the upper troposphere (10-14 km or 6-9 miles altitude) from NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS).

Their work verified water vapor is increasing in the atmosphere as the surface warms.  They found the increases in water vapor were not as high as many climate-forecasting computer models have assumed.  Our study confirms the existence of a positive water vapor feedback in the atmosphere, but it may be weaker than we expected, Minschwaner said.

In most computer models relative humidity tends to remain fixed at current levels.  Models that include water vapor feedback with constant relative humidity predict the Earth’s surface will warm nearly twice as much over the next 100 years as models that contain no water vapor feedback.

Using the UARS data to actually quantify both specific humidity and relative humidity, the researchers found, while water vapor does increase with temperature in the upper troposphere, the feedback effect is not as strong as models have predicted. The increases in water vapor with warmer temperatures are not large enough to maintain a constant relative humidity, Minschwaner said. These new findings will be useful for testing and improving global climate models.

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