2007

Ozone: The WHole Truth

by William Yeatman on September 19, 2007

Environmentalists have made many apocalyptic predictions over the last several decades. Virtually none has come to pass. Yet each time, the greens and their political allies proclaim victory, arguing their preventive prescriptions averted disaster.

Such is the case with the 1987 Montreal Protocol On Substances That Deplete The Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol). The lurid predictions of ozone depletion-induced skin cancer epidemics, ecosystem destruction and others haven't come true, for which Montreal Protocol proponents congratulate themselves.

But in retrospect, the evidence shows ozone depletion was an exaggerated threat in the first place. As the treaty parties return to Montreal for their 20th anniversary meeting it should be cause for reflection, not celebration, especially for those who hope to repeat this "success story" in the context of global warming.

The Pain in Feel-Good Environmentalism

by Julie Walsh on September 19, 2007

Over six and a half billion dollars were given to environmental groups in 2006, according to the June 28, 2007 issue of “Chronicle of Philanthropy.”  But how many of the good people who donated to these groups know that some of their money is used to thwart mining projects destined to help poverty-stricken people in poverty-stricken nations? The groups don’t publicize this fact.

For example, when you go on the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) website you see lots of pictures of adorable animals and stories of WWF projects to save gorillas and macaws. But they don’t publicize the dirty fact that they are working to bring down a mining project in Madagascar, the world’s third poorest country.

Most U.S. citizens care about the United States’ reputation in the world. Yet we’re turning a blind-eye to the developing world’s increasing resentment towards us caused by First-World environmental groups, who seek to impose their green values on the developing world and bring down much-needed projects. In our arrogance, we use our own land for large office buildings, factories, and shopping malls, but we can’t allow them to use their own land for a desired mining project, consigning the world’s poorer nations to slow—and in some cases no—economic growth.

But as Snezhina Kovacheva states, “(E)nvironmental mitigation is a value-added good. As a country's wealth increases, its citizens recognize that a better environment enhances the quality of life. Accordingly, the population starts investing a larger portion of its greater resources into developing cleaner technologies.” As seen in the area of global warming, the United States was able to reduce its emissions (relative to GDP) further through energy efficiency, than those of the Kyoto-signers.

EU Plans Climate Change Pact With Poor Countries

by Julie Walsh on September 19, 2007

The EU alliance plans to help developing countries prepare for future disasters, take advantage of the global carbon market, and cut emissions from deforestation.

Bi-Polar Northwest Passage Story

by Julie Walsh on September 18, 2007

A September 18, 2007 article by Troy Lennon in the Daily Telegraph, Sydney about the Northwest Passage, “Trip that caused the toughest to tremble,” completely missed the point.

The author says in the third paragraph, “If global warming continues, it may just achieve what thousands of people tried and failed to do — open up a northwest passage from the Atlantic through to the Pacific.”

Then at the end of the article he details those explorers that did transverse it, albeit not for commerce.

In the 20th century someone actually sailed along the route. In 1906 Norwegian Roald Amundsen braved the course aboard the Gjoa, a converted herring boat.

In 1940-42 Canadian Mounted Police officer Henry Larsen sailed the St Roch — a diesel-powered schooner clad in Australian ironbark timber — from Vancouver to Halifax. It was the first to sail the passage from west to east. In 1944 he sailed from Halifax to Vancouver, setting a record of 86 days — the first vessel to sail the passage in a single season. But cost has stopped commerce from following the adventurers.

 The Northwest Passage has been traveled many times before: in 1906, 1942, 1944, 1957, 1969, 1977, and 1984. And the Vikings may have even succeeded earlier. Don’t believe the alarmists that say that the opening of this route portends the end of the world.

Scientific Forecasters Pour Cold Water on Temperature Projections

by Iain Murray on September 18, 2007

Al Gore’s film, An Inconvenient Truth, has initiated something of a backlash as scientists, heretofore absent from the global warming debate, have begun to criticize Mr. Gore, and by extension, much of the underpinnings of the global warming hypothesis.
 
One such critic is Professor Scott Armstrong, a leading expert on forecasting with the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.  Professor Armstrong hasn’t just criticized Mr. Gore; he has put his money where his mouth is by challenging the former VP to a $10,000 bet, based on climate predictions.
 
On September 13, the Center for Science and Public Policy hosted a briefing where Professor Armstrong presented the findings of an audit he and his colleague, Professor Kesten Green with Monash University’s Business and Economic Forecasting Unit in New Zealand, conducted on Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s Working Group I report, The Physical Science Basis. 
 
As noted in the presentation, they found no evidence that the IPCC authors were aware of the primary sources of information on forecasting. Indeed, as Professor Armstrong stated, “We have been unable to find a single scientific forecast to support global warming.”
 
They also found that there was only enough information within the IPCC report to make a judgment on 89 of the total 140 forecasting principles as described in Professor Armstrong’s book, Principles of Forecasting.  Of these 89 principles, the IPCC violated 72.
 
The power point slides and video of the Professor Armstrong's presentation are available here.

Commonsense Prevails in CA Court

by William Yeatman on September 18, 2007

On the (more) good news front, yet another court has weighed in to thumb its nose at the ridiculously reasoned SCOTUS opinion in Massachusetts et al v. EPA which strongly suggested that EPA should regulate emissions of carbon dioxide from new automobiles – and presumably all GHGs from all substantial sources, including water vapor – as a pollutant under the Clean Air Act.

In the same context of auto emissions – but with California seeking not regulatory authority but damages in tort from auto emission-caused global warming – the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California (!) stated the obvious:

“The court is left without guidance in determining what is an unreasonable contribution to the sum of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere, or in determining who should bear the costs associated with global climate change that admittedly result from multiple sources around the globe.”

How much is too much and whose pocket would I pick, how badly?  I admit that this stance is grounded specifically in the plaintiffs relying on a long line of jurisprudence on transboundary nuisance, which the court noted are “distinguishable because none of the pollution-as-public nuisance cases implicates a comparable number of national and international policy issues.”  Still, isn’t it amazing the difference it can make when one dares to shrug off likely political venom and confront the fragile nature of the claims?

This applies to the court here, as well, which actually showed courage when finding that “injecting itself into the global warming thicket at this juncture would require an initial policy determination of the type reserved for the political branches of government … and would potentially undermine the political branches’ strategic choices.”  That is, it also asked, at what cost?

Here the court is invoking the political question doctrine, one of two rationales cited on August 31 by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Mississippi which threw out a class action lawsuit essentially blaming 26 energy companies for Hurricane Katrina.

Like the San Francisco court, the court in Biloxi also dismissed Ned Comer, et al. v. Murphy Oil USA Inc., et al., on the grounds that the plaintiffs identified no “standing” to sue (the opposite of what SCOTUS found for parties also lacking in such status, but here the court also articulated a distinction in the nature of their complaints to deny standing; in truth both groups’ claims to unique and actual harm are risible).

It is key to have yet another court saying this on the heels of the Katrina class action, yet completely at odds with the Vermont federal court’s ruling late last week that the California court seemingly had waited on to issue its opinion, indicating it a possible intention to defer to those proceedings. Recall that “In considering a Rule 12(b)(6) motion, the Court accepts the plaintiff’s material allegations in the complaint as true and construes them in the light most favorable to the plaintiff” – that is, this ruling is made while accepting California’s claims that cars have caused part of observed climate changes.

Most surprising is how such commonsense assertions persist in the judicial realm on the heels of Mass v EPA, an absurd opinion cited 13 times by the court in San Francisco but which was only made possible by poor a) strategy and b) oral argument (no one spoke up to support Scalia’s inquiry about a linear relationship between marginal reductions in global CO2 emissions and alleged impact, in response to Breyer's fantastic statement that a 2% reduction would “save 2% of Massachusetts’s coastline”). 

So, all remains on hold as these things wind their respective ways through the courts – hopefully with some support from EPA which now has more reason than ever to inform the Court that they elect not to regulate CO2 because the notion of some exaggerated 20th century warming trend has been debunked.

Chinese Interests Likely to Undermine Emissions Trading

by Iain Murray on September 18, 2007

Chinese politicians and indutsry are likely to "game" any emissions trading system set up in the nation, leading to no genuine emissions reductions, says the deputy chief of the State Environmental Protection Administration.

Polar Bear Die-off “Unlikely”

by Iain Murray on September 18, 2007

The chief polar bear biologist for the Government of Nunavut in Canada tells the local newspaper that fears that two-thirds of polar bears will die off in the next fifty years is overblown, and that the photograph of a straving bear that accompanied the reports is of an elderly male likely to die soon rather than of a young female, as it had been labeled.

Climatologist Calls Guardian Climate Hype “Misleading and Alarmist”

by Iain Murray on September 18, 2007

Last week, The Guardian newspaper ran a story that claimed that melting ice on Greenland was triggering earthquakes "faster than ever anticipated."  A climatologist who works on the subject corrects the record, calling the report "misleading and alarmist."

Judge Tosses California Global Warming Suit

by Iain Murray on September 18, 2007

in Politics

In a major defeat for global warming alarmists, a California judge yesterday dismissed a law suit by the State of California that sought to blame the world's six largest automakers for damages it purported had been caused by global warming.

The judge (opinion here) held that the Court could not decide to what extent the automakers themselves were responsible for the problems the State alleged they caused:

"The court is left without guidance in determining what is an unreasonable contribution to the sum of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere, or in determining who should bear the costs associated with global climate change that admittedly result from multiple sources around the globe"

The judge declared that it was for lawmakers, not the Court, to decide to what extent automakers were liable for any costs associated with global warming. He also found that ruling for the State would jeopardize the Administration's foreign policy negotiations.

 

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