April 2008

In the realm of energy policy, there are a great many bad ideas and a very few good ones. The usual practice of presidential candidates is to (1) sift through all these proposals, (2) separate the wheat from the chaff and (3) keep the chaff.

From JenniferNarohasy.com

 Posted by Paul, at 04:35 PM

There are several interesting climate related studies in this week's Science magazine.

Greenland Ice Slipping Away but Not All That Quickly

Almost 6 years ago, a paper in Science warned of an unheralded environmental peril. Melted snow and ice seemed to be reaching the base of the great Greenland ice sheet, lubricating it and accelerating the sheet’s slide toward oblivion in the sea, where it was raising sea level worldwide (12 July 2002, p. 218).

A new study has confirmed that meltwater reaches the ice sheet’s base and does indeed speed the ice’s seaward flow. The good news is that the process is more leisurely than many climate scientists had feared. Glaciologist Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University in State College says, "It matters, but it’s not huge.” The finding should ease concerns that Greenland ice could raise sea level a disastrous meter or more by the end of the century.

Read more at PHYSORG.com: Lakes of meltwater can crack Greenland's ice and contribute to faster ice sheet flow

Coral Adaptation in the Face of Climate Change

IN THEIR REVIEW, “CORAL REEFS UNDER RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE and ocean acidification” (14 December 2007, p. 1737), O. Hoegh- Guldberg et al. present future reef scenarios that range from coral-dominated communities to rapidly eroding rubble banks. Notably, none of their scenarios considers the capacity for corals to adapt. The authors dismiss adaptation because “[r]eef-building corals have relatively long generation times and low genetic diversity, making or slow rates of adaptation [relative to rates of change].” We think the possibility of adaptation deserves a second look.

In the absence of longterm demographic studies to detect temporal trends in life history traits, predicting rates of adaptation, and whether they will be exceeded by rates of environmental change, is pure speculation. Indeed, where such data are available for terrestrial organisms they demonstrate that contemporary evolution in response to climate change is possible (7).

There's another coral story in The Herald Sun: Scientists find corals flourishing on Bikini Atoll

Phytoplankton Calcification in a High-CO2 World

Ocean acidification in response to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures is widely expected to reduce calcification by marine organisms. From the mid-Mesozoic, coccolithophores have been major calcium carbonate producers in the world’s oceans, today accounting for about a third of the total marine CaCO3 production. Here, we present laboratory evidence that calcification and net primary production in the coccolithophore species Emiliania huxleyi are significantly increased by high CO2 partial pressures. Field evidence from the deep ocean is consistent with these laboratory conclusions, indicating that over the past 220 years there has been a 40% increase in average coccolith mass. Our findings show that coccolithophores are already responding and will probably continue to respond to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures, which has important implications for biogeochemical modeling of future oceans and climate.

Read more at Dot Earth: Some Plankton Thrive With More CO2

Lawrence Solomon’s book profiles nearly three dozen top scientists who have resisted the pull of climate alarmism.

Once upon a time, the media believed in the open exchange of opinions regarding public policy…But there’s one hot-button issue on which virtually no dissent is allowed: climate change. In a style reminiscent of the old Soviet Union, people disagreeing with any element of the agenda pursued by Al Gore and his climate catastrophists have been derided as “deniers,” a term clearly intended to equate dissent with mental illness, if not post hoc complicity in atrocities (as in “Holocaust denier”). “Fifteen per cent of the people believe the moon landing was staged on some movie lot and a somewhat smaller number still believe the Earth is flat,” Gore says. “They all get together on a Saturday night and party with the global-warming deniers.”

President Bush's new plan to rein in greenhouse gases came under fire at a meeting of the world's largest polluting countries, with some participants criticizing the plan as a step backward in the fight against climate change.

World business chiefs gathered here Thursday to discuss ways to tackle global warming as trans-Atlantic tensions emerged over how far industry should go to reduce emissions.

Paul Chesser, Climate Strategies Watch

A "Statement on Climate Change" released in October by the Oklahoma Climatological Survey — the research unit of the College of Atmospheric & Geographic Sciences at the University of Oklahoma — spouts the IPCC line on likely dire consequences absent greenhouse gas mitigation:

The continued warming of the climate averaged across the globe will create a cascade of climatic shifts which could impact Oklahoma’s climate….Across the globe, a warming climate will be beneficial to some and detrimental to others. Anticipating how this climatic shift will impact Oklahoma is of vital importance to state decision-makers. One of the greatest impacts will be the exposure of Oklahoma’s growing population and economy to water stress.

Motivating OCS to make strong recommendations for action:

OCS recommends that Oklahoma aggressively pursue four initiatives to address the risks of both climate variability and climate change. First, the state should undertake a comprehensive assessment of Oklahoma’s social and economic vulnerability to climate variability as well as climate change…Second, OCS recommends immediate funding of the Oklahoma Water Resources Board’s Comprehensive Water Plan study to identify existing as well as projected needs for water. Third, OCS encourages efficiency programs to reduce our growing demand for energy. Fourth, OCS recommends investment in renewable energy technology and production.

So much for sticking to your expertise…which by the end of their statement seem to hedge on their certainty:

Even if climate does not evolve as expected, these steps will yield long-term benefits to Oklahoma’s society and economy through reduced losses to existing climate and weather threats and cost-savings through reduced energy use. If climate does evolve as expected, Oklahoma will be better positioned to adapt to those changes without rapid social upheaval.

Just ask the experts!

What’s true in athletics is also true with energy production: You can’t get good results if you don’t do the drills.

Paul Chesser, Climate Strategies Watch

In Durham, N.C. our state Blue Cross and Blue Shield is boasting about the groundbreaking of a new "100,000-square-foot building that will use 65 percent less energy and half the water per square foot of typical office space." Good for them, if it improves their bottom line, efficiency, service to customers, whatever.

But the director of our State Energy Office, Larry Shirley, was excited as well, although for different reasons:

"If North Carolina were a country, it would be the 24th biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world," he said. "If we just have a one-foot level rise in sea level, it would devastate eastern North Carolina. We're very vulnerable. The only state more vulnerable is Florida."

It's not clear whether Shirley was even asked about global warming, but as we often see, in many instances it doesn't matter what the question is, because the answer will always be global warming.

I'm always amused by the alarmists' "if (insert state name) were a country…" argument and the computer-modelized "if we have (insert disastrous measurement)" argument. Why can't we ask the reverse questions, like "what if the EU countries, or even China and India, were states?" Where would North Carolina rank then?

What if Spartacus had a Piper Cub? What if Superman grew up in Germany?

Hat tip to my colleague Paul Messino.