May 2008

Apparently the spin du jour on the Nature paper referenced serially, below, is that “Nature” – the Mother, not the magazine – “has given Earth a break” for (surprise!) “the next ten years” (what is it with these people and the number 10?).

So Al Gore’s Doomsday Clock has a snooze button. Who knew?

Driving around today I wondered how bad the traffic would be if humans had increased their population since 1950 nearly fivefold — as has happened over that span with the apparently soon-to-be-declared "endangered" polar bear — instead of the mere sub-threefold we've experienced.

I'm just saying. One man's population bomb, explosion, epidemic, etc. is another's threat of extinction, harkening back to P.J. O'Rourke's distillation of the population nags' philosophy as "just enough of them, way too many of you and me."

Paul Chesser, Climate Strategies Watch

In North Carolina, where the John Locke Foundation (my former employer) has endeavored to expose the influence of the Center for Climate Strategies upon the state's Climate Action Plan Advisory Group, an outside group enlisted by CCS has seriously backpedaled on ludicrous claims of great economic benefits that would result from CAPAG's recommendations. My Locke colleague Roy Cordato explains:

“Six months ago, the (Appalachian State University) Energy Center trumpeted its claims that policies to cut carbon dioxide emissions in North Carolina would add more than 325,000 jobs and $20 billion to the state’s economy by 2020,” said Dr. Roy Cordato, JLF Vice President for Research and Resident Scholar. “Now the same ASU team has snuck out a new report that drops that estimate to 32,000 jobs and $2.2 billion in gross state product.”

“That’s not just a rounding error,” Cordato added. “That’s a major mistake that should call into question the researchers’ competence. No serious scholar would put out research that makes a mistake that large.”

Of course, it was the earliest boast (see "Ponder presentation") that got the greater attention of the local media, while the new, revised figures ("Ponder presentation" again) were ignored.

That CCS contracted out to the Energy Center in the first place was a recognition that they had to shore up their credibility on the economics claims they were making. Only who did they get to do the research? A fellow named David Ponder, who is a graduate assistant in the Department of Political Science at Appalachian State. Further evidence of CCS's embarrassment over economic ignorance is that they have overhauled their personnel page on their Web site to emphasize economics credentials. Amusingly updated on executive director Tom Peterson's bio are these new inclusions:

He holds a B.S. in Biology with a concentration in Economics from the College of William and Mary…

He also has a Master's degree in Environmental Management with a concentration in Natural Resource Economics and Policy from Duke University…

Meanwhile, the Beacon Hill Institute (well-qualified economists all) has produced its own analysis of CAPAG's recommendations, and not surprisingly they arrive at far different conclusions from the poli-sci grad student:

“By 2011, the state would shed more than 33,000 jobs,” according to the report from the Beacon Hill Institute, the research arm of the economics department at Boston’s Suffolk University. “Annual investment would drop by about $502.4 million, real disposable income by more than $2.2 billion, and real state Gross Domestic Product by about $4.5 billion.”

“The negative economic effects would spill over into state and local tax collections,” the report adds. “We estimate a loss of $184.6 million in revenues in 2011.”

So now the question for everyone concerned is, who do you believe?

It is, we are told, as inevitable and inexorable as night follows day that, as the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere goes up, so too does the temperature of the world. Inconveniently for this axiomatic truth, however, while carbon dioxide has continued to increase the temperature of the planet has stayed flat over the past decade and even recently dropped like a stone. Never mind: man-made global warming turns out to be the most obliging of theories because now we are told that this inexorable process of heating is now to take a ten-year pause.

A new study indicates alarmist concern and a need to explain away the lack of actual global warming. Researchers belonging to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, reported in Nature (May 1) that after adjusting their climate model to reflect actual sea surface temperatures of the last 50 years, "global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations … temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming."

Paul Chesser, Climate Strategies Watch

This morning Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, speaking at a meeting held by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce, repeated the oft-heard mantra (Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter claims his government will create a New Energy Economy — his capitalization!) that going green (and halting new coal-fired power plants) will create jobs and grow the economy:

“If Massachusetts gets clean energy right, the world would be our customer,” Patrick said at a packed breakfast sponsored by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce….

“Massachusetts has what it takes to lead a clean energy economy,” he said, “because in the age of clean energy, power will come not from fossil fuels but from technology, innovation and skill.

“Those are resources we have in abundance – and they are infinitely renewable,” he said….

Energy efficiency, he said, is “the cleanest energy of all, and the ultimate defense against rising energy prices.”

An impressive discovery, and I hope Gov. Patrick lets everyone else in on the Massachusetts secret. You no longer need raw material to burn, blow or flow to generate power — you simply need brain power (waves?) and reduced usage to keep yourself warm in the winter and to transport yourself long distances. Amazing!