2008

What Would Change?

by William Yeatman on June 10, 2008

Numerous media outlets today are reporting a what is for some reason an unsettling reality that Europe must face up to: the U.S. is no more likely to jump into the EU’s beloved Kyoto mess under President Obama or McCain than they did under George W. Bush.

As AFP reports, “‘Obama and McCain have made clearly more positive noises on climate change,’ an EU official said. ‘I think that's a misconception frankly,’ US Special Envoy for EU Affairs C. Boyden Gray told AFP. ‘If you read what Obama has said about China's need to be engaged (in a global deal) and that what McCain says is identical to what the president is saying, (then) I don't think that's going to change.’”

Maybe it’s time to recall that it didn’t change when switching from Clinton-Gore to Bush, either.

Al Gore has dined out for seven years on the phony complaint, enabled by the media, that U.S. climate/Kyoto policy experienced a wrenching transformation upon Bush’s inauguration.

As I reminded Mr. Gore when he repeated this spin at the Wednesday meeting of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy in January 2006 – just before telling us that, you know, there was another man who saw a gathering storm, last century, when others didn’t see the threat (ugh) – the U.S. policy has remained constant since July 2005. Then, a unanimous Senate voted 95-0 to not engage in such a deal “unless the protocol or other agreement also mandates new specific scheduled commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for Developing Country Parties within the same compliance period,” expressly citing China, Mexico, India, Brazil, and South Korea).

On March 17, 2001, Condoleeza Rice was dispatched to inform EU ambassadors that the Bush administration was going to continue the Clinton-Gore administration policy of not seeking ratification of the signed pact. Unfortunately, that isn’t how they phrased it and, while I am a firm believer in being quite clear and direct with one’s rhetoric, here I admit that a little more polish would have helped. Imagine a world where that was the message, as opposed to the (truthful…still) line about it being for all intents and purposes a dead letter, which made it easy for the press to suddenly claim Bush scrapped the deal.

U.S. policy didn’t change under George W. Bush, only the rhetoric did: Clinton-Gore swore philsophical fealty to Kyoto but also expressly vowed to not push for ratification until China, India et al came on board. Bush expressed no love for the treaty but had the same position. He never unsigned it, withdrew from it (impossible) or walked away from the table (the latter was done only once, by Clinton-Gore, in The Hague in November 2000).

It is now fairly clear if not yet certain that U.S. policy would not change under Obama or McCain. Yet even a sudden, unprecedented vow to press on with at best some cosmetic promise by China, India et al. would never pass muster in the Senate. Which is where the issue rests today, as it has since the U.S. signed Kyoto on November 12, 1998.

US President George W Bush will ask the European Union to make a global deal on climate change dependent on the inclusion of rapidly developing nations such as India and China when he meets top EU officials in Slovenia, a US diplomat said Monday. "We do hope that there can be progress on getting the advanced emerging economies to commit to reductions (of CO2 levels) – not at the same level of Europe or the United States, but some," said C Boyden Gray, the US envoy to the European bloc, ahead of Tuesday's EU-US summit.

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) looked ridiculous last week when she insisted the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act would cause “no increase in gas prices.”

She is chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, which has jurisdiction over climate change, so there is no excuse for her not knowing that the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act was designed to make gas more expensive.

Under the Lieberman-Warner “cap and trade” scheme, industrial users and suppliers of energy would have to buy the right to emit greenhouse gases from an annual government-run auction, whereas now these emissions are free.

But businesses would not simply absorb higher input costs; instead, they would pass along the burden to consumers. That’s why, in a report released last April, the Congressional Budget Office says that “most of the cost of meeting a cap on CO2 emissions would be borne by consumers, who would face persistently higher prices for products such as electricity and gasoline.”

Here’s a few estimates of how high the price of gas would go under the Lieberman-Warner energy rationing plan, as compiled by the minority staff on the Senate EPW Committee:

  • The independent analysis by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) predicts gasoline prices will increase between 60% and 144% by 2030.
  • The EPA estimates that the Lieberman-Warner bill will increase fuel costs an additional 53 cents per gallon by 2030 and by $1.40 by 2050. 
  • An independent study by NERA Economic Consulting estimates that the price of motor fuel will rise by 48 cents per gallon by 2030.
  • The Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates gas prices will increase anywhere from 41 cents per gallon to $1.01 per gallon by 2030. 

Gas prices will rise under this bill.  Whether it’s an additional $1.40 as predicted by EPA or $5.16 as predicted by SAIC, Americans would pay more for gas under Lieberman-Warner.

I missed this when it was first published, but it turns out that fat people cause global warming!  Reports Reuters:

Obesity contributes to global warming, too.

Obese and overweight people require more fuel to transport them and the food they eat, and the problem will worsen as the population literally swells in size, a team at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine says.

This adds to food shortages and higher energy prices, the school’s researchers Phil Edwards and Ian Roberts wrote in the journal Lancet on Friday.

“We are all becoming heavier and it is a global responsibility,” Edwards said in a telephone interview. “Obesity is a key part of the big picture.”

I concede my own responsibility.  Since having a knee replaced (using up enormous amounts of energy and creating a huge carbon footprint in the process!), I’ve gained a lot of weight.  So I guess I’d better contribute to one of Al Gore’s enterprises to assuage my guilt.  And everyone else who’s put on some extra weight as they’ve gotten older should follow suit!

Maybe we need a government “cap and trade” program for pounds.  We each get a permit for the average body weight, and have to buy more permits if we go over.  Thin people could sell permission to put on some extra fat.  Whaddya’ think?

Tim Carney continues to expose the rent-seeking motives behind a lot of environmental regulation, in this case cap and trade legislation. As he notes, the story hasn’t changed much from the days of Enron’s enthusiastic support for the Kyoto Protocol.

Today, well-connected firms are lobbying for Lieberman and Warner’s Enron bill, which is the same environmentally dubious corporate boondoggle Enron had hoped Kyoto would spur.

General Electric has created a new business called GHG Services, which plans to pick up Enron’s CO2-dealing business, including winning free allowances through lobbying efforts.

Alcoa, similar to Enron’s coal gambit, makes much of its aluminum offshore, and so its energy-intensive manufacturing will be untouched by the Enron bill, while its lighter end-products (such as car frames) will be worth more.

Lieberman’s No. 1 donor, United Technologies, stands to profit handsomely from this bill’s research and development subsidies.

The early business coalition for cap-and-trade has become divided recently on the Enron Bill as it currently stands, and so it probably won’t become law until next year. But it’s all a bit sad — if this same bill had become law just seven years ago, the country and every family that pays utility bills, buys groceries and drives might be poorer, but those Enron shareholders would be much better off.

For more on the sordid story of Enron and Kyoto, see the chapter on the Enron scandal in Tim’s book, The Big Ripoff: How Big Business and Big Government Steal Your Money.

A fellow anti-Lieberman-Warner advocate emails:

Here is a good theme to hammer home: the 2003 vote was 43-55, and if you take post vote statements, final passage on the Boxer bill would have been 44-56.  That is after billions of dollars and an award winning movie.

Their cash-to-success ratio is worse than the Rudy 08 campaign.

Yes, 44 votes in favor of the bill, according to a tally of rhetorical turf staked out by The 100. And even that figure is suspect given that it includes some among the sixteen senators who couldn't quite find their way to the floor in order to wed themselves to a vote on cap-and-trade.

As former Idaho Sen. Steve Symms used to say, when it comes to environmental issues in the world's greatest deliberative body, "Profiles in Courage" would be, at best, of pamphlet length.

So we have now reaffirmed the obvious lack of desire to be associated with any specifics of the agenda disingenuously keened over in the Senate as addressing the greatest threat to mankind. This took on its two most cynical forms on Friday, of a) voting to move the bill forward, giving the patina of support, which was revoked by nine of the 48 "yea" voters in a letter to Sen. Harry Reid stating that in fact they don't and wouldn't support the measure (talk about trying to have it both ways), and b) the aforementioned sixteen senators, including the two presumptive nominees for the presidency, deciding they had other things more important to do than vote on something for which they, too, loudly tout their (purely rhetorical) support.

In the face of actions belying proclaimed support it sure seems to me that Sen. McConnell and the gang should offer up Lieberman-Warner as often as possible in the next few months, to kill the bill dead by revealing the emptiness of the claims to majority support, etc. This would ensure it does not reemerge any time in the near future.

And the future is now. Beginning today Sen. Reid plans to bring his energy (tax) bill to the floor this week, and I can think of no better place to start this campaign. Further, Reid has declared that — now that global warming is out of the way, chuckle — he is going to spend the remaining days as previewing for voters what the majority would do if only they had larger numbers.

It is pretty clear that reviving Lieberman-Warner's rationing scheme is on that list, once its champions figure out how to further disguise its obvious pain. So, Republicans and others opposed to Lieberman-Warner energy rationing, why not help the majority out in their effort to show people what is on the menu next year, by offering that bill as an amendment to anything and everything you can? As I write today in Human Events, it is time to win.

For months, Democrats and the environmental lobby promoted last week's Senate global-warming debate as a political watershed. It was going to be the historic turning point in U.S. climate change policy. In the event, their bill collapsed in a little more than three days.

Climate of Fear

by William Yeatman on June 9, 2008

in Blog

On Friday morning Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) forced a cloture vote to end debate on the Lieberman-Warner “climate tax” bill. He needed to stop the political bleeding among his caucus caused by their enthusiastic promotion of the measure at the time when public attention to gasoline prices is intense and angry.  Gasoline prices have increased at least $1.66 since the Democrats won the majority.

Planet Earth is on a roll! GPP is way up. NPP is way up. To the surprise of those who have been bearish on the planet, the data shows global production has been steadily climbing to record levels, ones not seen since these measurements began.

European Union ministers will try to get the United States to agree to “mid-term” emissions targets of 20% reductions by 2020 at the G8 conference for industrialized nations in Japan early this July. That’s not an arbitrary target; it’s the same one that the EU already adopted unilaterally two years ago.

European countries have yet to act on their collective promise to reduce emissions because they want other industrialized countries to make a similar pledge before proceeding with economically harmful climate policies. The procrastination is starting to hurt Europe’s heavy industry sector, which has postponed new investment until it can assess whether the EU’s climate regulations would make it more profitable to do business in countries without climate change regulations. But it cannot postpone investment much longer, because heavy industry requires long planning horizons. As a result, the EU is getting increasingly desperate to commit the United States to similar emissions targets.