2009

Rumors surfaced last week that President Barack Obama now considers financial sector reform to be his administration’s #2 priority after healthcare. Previously, climate change was thought to be the next big-ticket item on the President’s agenda.

The tea-leaves seem to indicate that this rumor is true.

For starters, Senator Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut) decided to stay on as Chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, rather than accept the gavel on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee (a post vacated by the passing of Ted Kennedy).

The only plausible explanation for Dodd’s decision to remain the chairman of the Banking Committee, which has jurisdiction over financial sector reform, is an expectation by Dodd that Obama will push for increased regulation of Wall Street in the short term. Dodd faces a tough re-election fight in 2010, and taking on Wall Street would put him in a favorable spotlight for the foreseeable future.

And today in New York, President Obama gave a speech on the need for a new regulatory regime to govern Wall Street, thereby lending further credence to the rumor that climate change has dropped as a priority.

Meanwhile, Senator Barbara Boxer (D-California), the chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee (which has primary jurisdiction over climate change legislation) last week again delayed the introduction of global warming legislation, and Senator Dick Durbin (D-Illinois), the second ranking Democrat in the Senate, told reporters that cap-and-trade might have to wait until 2010.

Announcements

Freedom Action is a new political advocacy organization that aims to create a gathering of grassroots free market activists that will make their voices heard above special interests and big government advocates. Freedom Action’s first project is to Stop Al Gore’s Electricity Tax, and can be found here.

Americans For Prosperity is hosting grassroots demonstrations against cap-and-trade energy rationing in cities across the country. Learn more about the Hot Air Tour by clicking here.

The American Energy Alliance has launched a four week American energy bus tour to build public awareness of what cap-and-trade is, how it works, and the extent to which it’s capable of inflicting serious damage to the American economy. Click here to learn more.

In the News

How Much Does Waxman-Markey Increase Gas Prices in Your State?
Nicolas Loris & Ben Lieberman, Heritage WebMemo, 11 September 2009

Global Warming Takes a Break
Lorne Gunter, National Post, 11 September 2009

Cap-and-Trade Cost Would Devastate Economy
David A. Ridenour, Sacramento Bee, 10 September 2009

Administration Shocker: Green Jobs Harmful
Chris Horner, Planet Gore, 10 September 2009

New Paper Shows Staggering Cost of Waxman-Markey
Iain Murray, GlobalWarming.org, 9 September 2009

Coal Miners Blast Cap-and-Trade at Kentucky Rally
Tim Hubert, AP, 8 September 2009

Why Natural Gas Should Not Play the Cap-and-Trade Game
Robert Bradley, MasterResource.org, 8 September 2009

I Pledge To Promote Global Warming Propaganda
Paul Chesser, American Spectator, 8 September 2009

Solar Economics
The Coyote Blog
, 8 September 2009

News You Can Use

Energy Tax = Job Losses

Higher energy prices caused by the American Clean Energy and Security Act, H.R. 2454, would force businesses to shed 2.4 million jobs by 2030, according to a new economic analysis by the National Association of Manufacturers and the American Council for Capital Formation.

Inside the Beltway

Myron Ebell

Senate Action on Cap-and-Trade Fades into Next Year

The Congress is back, and Washington is humming again. That doesn’t mean that the Senate is moving toward a deal on energy-rationing legislation.  Cap-and-trade looks to be stuck for the moment as Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) tries to put together a health care rationing bill. That may well be wrapped up quickly, but news reports suggest that the Obama Administration wants the Congress to turn to new financial regulation legislation after health care. So it appears that energy rationing is slipping down the list. Senator Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the Majority Whip, said that he thought it would now have to be put off until next year.

Is the EPA’s Economic Analysis Trustworthy?

Representative Joe Barton (R-Tex.), the ranking Republican on the Energy and Commerce Committee, and Representative Greg Walden (R-Oreg.) sent a letter this week to the Environmental Protection Agency asking the agency to explain several apparent problems and discrepancies in its economic analysis of the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Read the full letter here.

California Waiver Challenged in Court

The U. S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Automobile Dealers Associations filed suit in the U. S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to overturn the EPA’s waiver that allows California to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from new automobiles. The suit argues that global warming is a global rather than a local problem and that waivers under the Clean Air Act can only be granted in order to address local problems.

Around the World

Rough Road to Copenhagen

All signs point to failure at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change this December in Copenhagen, where international policymakers hope to agree on a global warming treaty to succeed the failed Kyoto Protocol. Earlier this month, the United States Senate-which would have to ratify any treaty-again delayed action on a climate bill, and now Democratic Party leadership is saying that the Senate might not address global warming until 2010. The Senate’s inaction makes it difficult if not impossible for the Obama administration to commit to binding emissions targets in Copenhagen.

Also, there is still no agreement among nations on how to share the huge costs of reducing global emissions. This week the European Union announced that it was prepared to give $22 billion a year to “green” the economies of developing countries. Developing countries, however, are asking for at least 1% of global Gross Domestic Product, or about $500 billion a year, to pay for emissions reductions. Unless they get it, they won’t act. And without the participation of mega-emitters like China and India, global emissions will increase regardless what the U.S. and the E.U do to fight climate change.

The outlook for a deal in Copenhagen has become so bleak that dignitaries are actively lowering expectations. United Kingdom Foreign Minister this week told AFP that, “It’s a real danger that the world will not come together in the way that is necessary to agree on an ambitious and comprehensive deal in December.”

It Could Happen Here

  • French President Nicolas Sarkozy this week introduced a new carbon tax on energy use, despite polling suggesting that two-thirds of voters oppose it.
  • Last week a United Kingdom tribunal ruled that belief in manmade global warming had the same status as a religious conviction.

On Tuesday I reported about the Alliance for Climate Education’s indoctrination efforts of high school students in five metro areas: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Boston. This week ACE is advertising to hire “educators” in their next target city, which is Washington:

ACE is seeking a dynamic, energetic individual to give presentations on climate change to high school students in Washington, D.C. The Senior Educator will eventually be responsible for managing day-to-day operations, fostering relationships with schools and local ENGOs in D.C., and identifying opportunities for and delivering lively, multimedia presentations to students in an assembly format.  The educator is responsible for setting up school appointments, traveling to area schools, conducting presentations to a group of 200+ students and faculty, following-up with students and faculty after presentations, refining/revising program content and working in close collaboration with other staff in realizing ACE’s goals and priorities. The D.C. Senior Educator will also help develop the overall organizational strategy for supporting the collective youth voice and determining how it can be a more relevant part of the overall climate movement.

Just what the public schools exist for: letting advocacy groups in to take kids out of their classes to get recruited for a “movement.”

Fox News/Rush Limbaugh watchdog Media Matters for America did climate realists a big favor last night by posting a segment without comment from last night’s “O’Reilly Factor,” in which host Bill O. interviewed AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi about California wildfires and global warming. As O’Reilly explained, he invited Greenpeace to send a representative to appear on the program with Bastardi but the group declined to do so. That left the well-respected weatherman to present plenty of evidence that the fires have nothing to do with global warming. Witness:

1. Given an opportunity by O’Reilly to slam Greenpeace, Bastardi says “I don’t want to disparage them. They’ve done some good things.” But then he adds, “in this case their house of cards (the global warming-wildfires connection) goes up in smoke.”

2. (Illustrating with meteorological maps and that cool telestrator thing) “Over the last two years…whenever the Pacific Ocean starts cooling, and global temperatures start to cool, California gets dry….All this cold water off California means the air sinks over the top of California; when it sinks it dries out, so global cooling is actually a cause of drought in California…”

3. (Showing a temperature anomalies chart) “To prove to you the globe is actually cooling, if you look at the [IPCC] their forecast was for temperatures to go up, up, up, and over the last 10 years you can see — in an up-and-down manner — they are coming down. So for the last 10 years, it’s cooling.”

4. “While the earth was supposed to be warming a little bit, the atmosphere over the tropics was really supposed to be warming up quite a bit. (Shows model of tropical greenhouse warming) What has actually been happening? (replaces with chart of “reality” in the tropics) Nada.”

5. (Posts chart of accumulated cyclone energy trends) “And consequently, an inconvenient truth is, the tropical cyclone accumulated energy is down at record low levels, not record high levels.”

Watch for yourself, and pass along a big thanks to both MMFA and Greenpeace for letting facts reach the public without adding their lies and spin.

There’s a new cost:benefit study from New York University Law School’s Institute for Public Integrity that, its authors claim, shows that, “From almost any perspective and under almost any assumption, H.R. 2454 [Waxman-Markey] is a good investment for the United States to make in our own economic future and in the future of the planet.”  A good investment for the US? Really?

The authors recognize that the benefits they find are global, while the costs are located in the US.  So let’s see what benefits accrue to US citizens and at what cost. (I am working with the authors’ figures here, which derive from the EPA, and are significantly different from the figures provided by such groups as the Heritage Foundation or the American Council for Capital Formation, which find much, much higher costs.)

Highest possible benefit = $5.2 trillion / 6 billion people = benefits of $866 per person

Cost to US citizen = $660 billion / 300 million people = cost of $2200 per citizen

That means a best possible benefit to cost ratio for a US citizen of 0.4:1.

The report talks about thinking of the Waxman-Markey costs as a “highly effective, highly leveraged form of foreign aid.”  One has to doubt that, given that the benefits that accrue to the developing world do so mostly in the far future, while the developing world is in desperate need of greater wealth – and better access to energy – today.  Even if it were true, however, one wonders whether the American public will accept a de facto tax increase of around $1300 per person, or $400 billion total, to pay for such climate aid.

Yet that’s assuming that the “high end” benefits scenario is what occurs.  The global low end benefits are actually far outweighed by the American costs, leading to a benefit:cost ratio to America of something in the order of 0.05:1 (or a cost:benefit ratio of 20:1).

And, of course, there’s no guarantee that a reduction in American emissions will amount to a reduction in global emissions.  We have seen the response to European cap-and-trade schemes being the relocation of facilities to other jurisdictions.  If so, the effective foreign aid program of Waxman-Markey might actually be a loss of American jobs to be replaced by developing world jobs, with no emissions reduction at all.  That would be very generous of us, but not quite what the authors of this study have in mind.

To summarize, the authors of the study have conclusively demonstrated that the Waxman-Markey bill is actually a very bad deal for the United States, and their attempts to claim otherwise are just spin.

The Washington Post has discovered that poor people in poor countries need access to modern energy.  In an excellent article on today’s front page, Emily Wax details the energy poverty of Africa, India, and Pakistan.  And she draws the obvious conclusion that has evaded most of the establishment media for years: that’s why India and other developing countries aren’t going to sign on to any UN treaty that mandates reductions in their greenhouse gas emissions.  They don’t need an energy diet; they need thousands of coal-fired power plants.

Wax writes: “Just one in four Africans has access to grid electricity, according to the World Bank. More than 500 million Indians, roughly half the population, have no official access to electricity, and those who do are experiencing rolling brownouts as India’s Power Ministry tries to make up for a 25 percent shortfall in electricity generation. The developing world’s dearth of power hinders prosperity and adds another layer of difficulty to daily life.

“In much of Africa, families depend on generators, candles, kerosene lamps and firewood. Blackouts force shops to close early, schools to cancel classes and hospitals to turn away patients. Foreign investors become wary of parking their money in Africa, experts say.  ‘Big companies in Africa seem to get most of their electricity from generators, or they build their own power plants,’ said Thomas Pearmain, an Africa energy analyst for IHS Global Insight.”

Of course, environmental pressure groups say that poor countries need to avoid “our mistakes” and build a new energy economy using renewable sources and new technologies.  The problem is that most of these new sources provide a lot more sanctimonious self-satisfaction than energy.  I recently drove through upstate New York on a mild summer day.  I saw over seventy windmills in several groups along the way.  Not a single one was turning.  That’s because the wind doesn’t blow much in the summer (when demand is highest because of air conditioning).  In sub-tropical countries like India there isn’t much wind at any time of year.

Today’s Greenwire (subscription required) carries a lengthy article on a nasty spat between Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and California environmental groups over the proposed siting of solar electricity plants in the Sun-drenched Mojave Desert.

Kennedy — like his cousin-by-marriage Gov. Schwarzenegger — wants to allow ”alternative energy” companies to build solar power stations in the Mojave. As the Governator was widely quoted as saying, “If we cannot put solar power plants in the Mojave Desert, I don’t know where the hell we can put it.”

But according to Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-CA), David Myers of the Wildlands Conservancy, and others, the solar stations would wreck the habitat of the desert tortois, a threatened species under the California and federal Endangered Species Acts. Feinstein and Myers support legislation (not yet introduced) to designate 1 million acres of the Mojave as a national monument — an action that would preclude commercial development within the area.

On the surface, it looks like a conflict between those, like Kennedy, who believe that no merely “local” concern should interfere with the quest for a ‘clean energy future,’ and those, like Myers, whose loyalties are divided between saving a particular species and saving the planet.

Two tidbits from the Greenwire article reveal that the situation is a bit more complicated. One is that Kennedy has a financial interest in Brightsource, the company that would be building the solar plants if the Mojave project is approved. The other is that Kennedy opposes a major renewable energy project in his own backyard — a windfarm in Nantucket Sound, near the family compound in Martha’s Vinyard.

Of course, those with any experience of politics should not be surprised if sanctimony walks hand-in-hand with greed, or if the goose insists that sauce is only for the gander.

From the Energy Information Administration and the General Accounting Office (via the Institute for Energy Research):

Total Federal subsidies for electric production for fiscal year 2007 from solar power are $24.34 per megawatt hour, compared to 44 cents for traditional coal, 25 cents for natural gas and petroleum liquids, 67 cents for hydroelectric power, and $1.59 for nuclear. Solar subsidies for non-electric production in fiscal 2007 totaled $2.82 per million Btu, second only to ethanol/biofuels at $5.72 per million Btu. (Figures are in 2007 dollars.)

In fiscal year 2007, solar received 9.2 percent of all federal research subsidies to power generation but produced only 0.016 percent of U.S. electricity. Per kilowatt-hour, this was 1255 times higher than the amount allocated to coal, most of which was spent to develop cleaner technologies. Coal produced 51.4 percent of all U.S. electricity in fiscal year 2007.

So then, how does this happen (USA Today):

Investors holding solar energy stocks are getting one nasty burn. Shares of companies that make solar panels have flamed out this year, missing out on what’s been a significant recovery in the stock market.

Market leaders, including First Solar and SunPower, for instance, are down 12 percent and 30 percent this year, even as the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index is up 13 percent. And the Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF, which tracks stocks in the industry, is down 6 percent this year.

Is there any amount of taxpayer money that could be thrown at solar to make it efficient and profitable?

As Energy Tribune’s Robert Bryce explains today in the Wall Street Journal:

Politically correct bird kills:

Politically incorrect bird kills:

Announcements

The Science and Public Policy Institute invites Congressional staff to a briefing with the Viscount Monckton of Benchley on Wednesday, September 9th, from Noon-1:30 PM, in Dirksen 215 Senate Office Building. Lord Monckton is one of the world’s most sought-after public speakers, and a formidable international expert on the science and economics of “global warming.” Lunch will be served. To RSVP, email Bob Ferguson at bferguson@sppinstitute.org.

Freedom Action is a new political advocacy organization that aims to create a gathering of grassroots free market activists that will make their voices heard above special interests and big government advocates. Freedom Action’s first project is to Stop Al Gore’s Electricity Tax, and can be found here.

Americans For Prosperity is hosting grassroots demonstrations against cap-and-trade energy rationing in cities across the country. Learn more about the Hot Air Tour by clicking here.

The American Energy Alliance has launched a four week American energy bus tour to build public awareness of what cap-and-trade is, how it works, and the extent to which it’s capable of inflicting serious damage to the American economy. Click here to learn more.

In the News

Terms of Endangerment
Wall Street Journal, 3 September 2009

Jobs for Bugs in Coal Country
William Yeatman & Jeremy Lott, Investor’s Business Daily, 3 September 2009

Can We Trust the Models?
Jonah Goldberg, Houston Chronicle, 2 September 2009

French President Hammered over Energy Tax
Emma Charlton, AFP, 2 September 2009

India’s Emissions To Triple by 2031
Hari Kumar, DotEarth, 2 September 2009

Smart Grid Is Dumb Policy
William Yeatman & Jeremy Lott, Forbes, 2 September 2009

Is a ‘Death Spiral’ for Climate Alarmism Ahead?
Kenneth Green, MasterResource.org, 1 September 2009

The Democrats’ Cap-and-Traitors
W. James Antle, American Spectator, 1 September 2009

Quite a Load of Toro
Chris Horner, Planet Gore, 1 September 2009

EPA Considers Closing Whistle Blower’s Unit
Sam Kazman, GlobalWarming.org, 27 August 2009

News You Can Use

A new United Nations study says that meeting the UN’s greenhouse gas emissions targets would cost $20 trillion over the next two decades.

Inside the Beltway

Myron Ebell

Senate Delays Climate Bill

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee announced on Monday that it would not have a draft energy-rationing bill ready to release on 8th September, as promised earlier. Although the Chairman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) has the votes to get almost any cap-and-trade bill out of committee, this delay means that it is highly unlikely that Boxer will meet Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev) deadline of 28th September. That is when all committees of jurisdiction are supposed to have their pieces of comprehensive energy-rationing legislation ready to go to the Senate floor. Senate action on cap-and-trade this fall looks less likely now.

EPA Proposes an Illegal Rule

The Environmental Protection Agency has sent rules for regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act to the White House for review and approval. According to several news stories, EPA is proposing to regulate only those entities responsible for 25,000 or more tons of CO2-equivalent per year. The Clean Air Act says clearly that 250 tons is the threshold amount that triggers regulation of a listed pollutant. Read my colleague Marlo Lewis’s analysis of EPA’s obviously illegal proposed regulations here.