The end of President Bush's time in office is 14 months away. But already I can guarantee two things. First, the next president will be elected on a promise to lead the nation to energy independence. Second, the promise won't be kept.
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A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales. The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming.
Norwegian researchers have been very concerned about arctic melting the last year, because improvements in satellite data shows an unprecedented melting. The measuring systems have, of course, only been available since the cooling period in the 70's. During a conference on Arctic melting in Oslo, Norway last week, the more than 40 researchers from all over the world concluded that soot from industry and combustion in Eastern Europe and Russia has escalated the melting of arctic ice. Easter Europe and Russia are the poorest areas of Europe and Northern Asia. The industry is old and outdated, I am sure the people who live in these countries would love to be able to afford cleaner, more efficient technology, but the energy rationing instituted by Kyoto will make that dream much harder to achieve.
You've probably seen the latest tizzy over the Bush Administration's "censoring of science" (see here and here). The case against the Bush Administration this time is that it edited testimony presented to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee by Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The testimony, originally 14 pages, was cut to six.
However, the narrative of a scientific cover-up is overwrought to say the least. The hearing was on the potential impact of global warming on human health, an exercise in speculation. It appears, if press accounts are correct, that what the Bush Administration cut from the director’s testimony was more speculation than settled science.
The Center for Science & Public Policy has published a new report looking at the claims made in the portions of the testimony that were cut (as reported in the press) and concludes that in every instance, whether it be heat-related mortality, disease, extreme weather, etc., there is no link between climate change and harm to human health. In every case human health or conditions that affect human health are improving. The report concludes that the Bush Admininstration didn't censor settled scientific findings, but rather unjustfiable speculation by CDC experts.
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