Science


Dr Than Aung of the University of the South Pacific recently confirmed the conclusions of other experts, such as Nils-Axel Morner, that low-lying Pacific island nations such as Tuvalu are in no danger of disappearing because of rising sea levels.


 According to the New Zealand Herald (Aug. 25), Dr Aung presented his findings at a scientific conference in New Caledonia.  His research was based on 136 months worth of data collected by Australian Marine Science and Technology Ltd, which showed sea levels had both risen and fallen across the Pacific in that time.  The data also showed marked falls in sea levels across the region’s countries due to the strong El Nino event in 1997-98.


 Dr Aung concluded that, The fears of small nations like Kiribati and Tuvalu disappearing under the ocean were exaggerated.  He went on, We have never believed that these islands will go under water. People will live there for thousands of years yet.


 Explaining why nations like Tuvalu were indifferent to his findings, Dr. Aung suggested that they did not seem to want to hear [them], as they would rather blame Western countries for their perceived predicament.  Dr. Aung also predicted that there would be strong representations from Tuvalu about global warming during the next predicted high tides of February to April 2006.

“Computers Add Sophistication, but Don’t Resolve Climate Debate” – “When the Bush administration issued an update last week on federal climate research, it was criticized with equal vigor by environmentalists and by industry-backed groups.

The update featured new computer simulations showing that the sharp rise in global temperatures since 1970 could only be explained by human influences, mainly rising levels of greenhouse gases.” (New York Times)


0831-sci-WARM-ch.jpeg (61550 bytes) Oddly, Meehl’s graphic, reproduced here from the NYT, is truncated at 1999, just post-peak of the powerful 1997/98 El Nio-induced temperature spike evident in both MSU and GISS datasets. MSU data indicates a peak in April of 1998 at +0.746C (annual mean +0.472C) and GISTEMP peaked in February of that year at +0.97C (annual mean +0.711C) – by March ’99 both had fallen significantly, to -0.088C (annual mean -0.022C) and +0.3C (annual mean +0.437C) respectively.

We’re sure the resultant impression of runaway warming in Meehl’s graph is purely accidental. Basing his anomalies graphic on the 1890-1919 average is also a rather novel approach, other items here based on the climatological mean (1951-1980 average).

UStemp.gif (18879 bytes) Regardless, Meehl’s graphic sure differs greatly from this one derived from one of the best financed and arguably best maintained near-surface datasets in the world – the continental United States of America. Kind of odd, considering they’re depicting the same period, that one indicates significant and quite rapid warming while the other shows no increase in 7 decades. Even more strangely, the GISSTEMP near-surface global mean temperature anomaly graph below does not appear to support Meehl’s version either.

MSU_monthly_mean.gif (9662 bytes) So, which ‘reality’ is being modeled then?

The thumbnail to the left links to a graphic of lower troposphere temperature anomalies determined from data captured by NOAA satellite-mounted MSUs. July, 2004 global mean -0.213.

GISS_monthly_mean.gif (10451 bytes) The thumbnail on the right is linked to a graphic of temperature anomalies as suggested by the NASA GISS surface temperature analysis (GISTEMP), a near-surface temperature amalgam – July, 2004 global mean +0.3.

GISS_MSU_monthly_mean.gif (12886 bytes) Plotted together – the increasing disconnect between these datasets is obvious. The question is: how does the near-surface amalgam produce a resulting anomaly >0.5C warmer than so-called satellite temps? This does not accord with the enhanced greenhouse hypothesis. Under that hypothesis the troposphere should warm and some of that increase should be reflected subsequently in near-surface measures – diametrically opposite to what has supposedly been measured.

This leaves us with several possibilities: the enhanced greenhouse effects works nothing like we suppose; the lower troposphere measures are incorrect; the near-surface amalgam is incorrect or; some combination of the above. Although there are many uncertainties regarding climate we think we have a fair understanding of the greenhouse effect – if not then the entire argument is moot. That leaves the temperature records. Of these, the satellite data has been validated against balloon-sonde measures while the near-surface amalgam is “odd man out.” Satellite data gives near-complete global coverage while near-surface records increasingly reflect temperatures in cities and at airports, an urbanization of the record accelerated by closure of rural recording stations and urban development.

So, what are these computers modeling? Is it enhanced greenhouse effect (EGE) or urban heat island effect (UHIE)?


As determined by NOAA Satellite-mounted MSUs
Information from
Global Hydrology and Climate Center,
University of Alabama – Huntsville, USA
The data from which the graph
is derived can be downloaded here
Global Mean Temperature Variance From Average,
Lower Troposphere,
July 2004: -0.213C

(Northern Hemisphere: -0.140C , Southern Hemisphere: -0.286C )


 

The global temperature report for July 2004 from the University of Alabama in Huntsville Earth System Science Center found that the month was the coolest month in four and a half years and the coolest July in a dozen years.


The data show that the global temperature was 0.21C (about 0.38F) below the 20-year average for July.  This followed on from a June temperature about 0.02C below the average.  Only 3 months in the last 41 had been below this norm.


Dr. John Christy of UAH said, This was the coolest July since 1992, when global temperatures were cooled by dust thrown into the atmosphere by the Mount Pinatubo volcano.  A color map of temperature anomalies will be available at http://climate.uah.edu.

California burning?

by William Yeatman on August 17, 2004

in Science

A new study, Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, published in the August 24 issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences garnered considerable press coverage in California and the rest of the nation on August 17.  The Associated Press coverage was typical:


Global warming could cause dramatically hotter summers and a depleted snow pack in California, leading to a sharp increase in heat-related deaths and jeopardizing the water supply, according to a study released Monday.


Under the most optimistic computer model, periods of extreme heat would quadruple in Los Angeles by the end of the century, killing two to three times more people than in heat waves today; the Sierra Nevada snow pack would decline by 30% to 70%; and alpine forests would shrink 50% to 75%.


The most pessimistic model projects five to seven times as many heat-related deaths in Los Angeles, with six to eight times as many heat waves.  Snow pack and high altitude forests would shrink up to 90%.  The scientists’ temperature projections are higher than previous estimates, particularly in summer. Their predictions of an extreme decline in snow pack, alpine forests and the spread of desert areas all exceed earlier projections.


The research was based on outputs from two models, including the Hadley Center Model, which reviewers admitted during the course of the National Assessment on Climate Change performed no better than a table of random numbers in predicting past climate.


Furthermore, the model was run on the basis of data from the discredited SRES scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that predict countries such as Zimbabwe, Vanuatu and North Korea overtaking the USA in per capita income by 2100.  There was no discussion of the appropriateness or robustness of these data choices in the published paper.

A paper published in the August 13 issue of Science magazine made the headlines when it predicted more heat waves in Europe and the USA as a result of global warming.


The papers findings were, however, inconclusive, as the predicted range of heat waves for 2080-2099 overlapped with the modeled range for the current climate.  In other words, the paper found that the number of heat waves might decrease in 80 years time.  Moreover, the models also relied on the discredited SRES scenarios referred to above.

In a new paper published in the International Journal of Climatology (24; 329-339), Georg Kaser of the University of Innsbruck and colleagues from the University of Massachussets, Amherst, and the Tanzania Meteorological Agency provide more proof that the snows of Kilimanjaro are disappearing owing to factors other than global warming.

In “Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as Evidence of Climate Change: Observations and Facts,” Kaser et al. “develop a new concept for investigating the retreat of Kilimanjaros glaciers, based on the physical understanding of glacierclimate interactions.”

They say, “The concept considers the peculiarities of the mountain and implies that climatological processes other than air temperature control the ice recession in a direct manner. A drastic drop in atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19th century and the ensuing drier climatic conditions are likely forcing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro.”

The authors reference another study, soon to be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. According to them, “Mlg and Hardy (2004) show that mass loss on the summit horizontal glacier surfaces is mainly due to sublimation (i.e. turbulent latent heat flux) and is little affected by air temperature through the turbulent sensible heat flux.”

In a case of the bugbear of the 1980s meeting the hobgoblin of the 1990s, scientists have found that acid rain can slow global warming by reducing methane emissions from natural wetland areas.

The new study, led by Vincent Gauci of Britains Open University together with colleagues at NASA and published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, finds that acid rain counteracts the natural production of methane gases by microbes in wetland areas.

As New Scientist says (Aug. 3), “Methane is thought to account for 22 percent of the human-enhanced greenhouse effect. And microbes in wetland areas are its biggest producers. They feed off substrates such as hydrogen and acetate in peat and emit methane into the atmosphere.”

The theory is that global warming itself will speed up the production of methane, “as heating up the microbes causes them to produce even more methane. But the new model suggests that sulphur [sic] pollution from industry cancels this out. This is because sulphur-eating bacteria also found in wetland regions outcompete the methane-emitting microbes for substrates. Experiments have shown that sulphur deposits can reduce methane production in small regions by up to 30 per cent by activating sulphur-eating bacteria.”

Atmospheric concentrations of methane have leveled off in the past few years.

The Bush Administrations Climate Change Science Program is beginning the first of 21 major climate assessments despite a fiscal crunch. The first assessment addresses the long-running debate over whether discrepancies exist between warming rates at the Earths surface and readings taken from the middle troposphere, where most weather occurs.

The apparent difference between the rate of warming at the Earth’s surface and the middle layer of the atmosphere has proven to be one of the most enduring issues of contention in climate change science. Computer models used to simulate climate conditions predict faster warming in the mid-troposphere than on the ground, while observations taken from satellites and weather balloons have contradicted those predictions by showing that the surface has warmed at least twice as fast as the atmosphere since 1980. This disparity has led many to criticize computer model results, which are the bedrock of climate change projections, as unreliable.

Critics of the new study question its value. “The big challenge is, are they going to say anything different than the academy concluded a couple of years ago?” asked Anthony Janetos of the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, referring to a 2000 National Research Council study on the temperature data that concluded that both surface and satellite data sets were accurate, but did not account for the disparity.

The study does have supporters, such as John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville, who along with colleague Roy Spencer developed the satellite temperature dataset. Christy believes the CCSP research is essential to take into account the peer-reviewed studies that have been published in the past two to three years. “An update at a minimum is what’s needed on this issue,” Christy said.

The study will be completed despite the tight monetary crunch the CCSP must deal with. Janetos believes “the prospects for a lot of new funding are really quite dim.” This is largely because the Bush Administration’s fiscal year 2005 budget request for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration would eliminate the government’s abrupt climate change research program as well as cut its paleoclimatology laboratory by half, potentially compromising the agency’s ability to conduct climate research (Greenwire, July 28).

Extreme weather conditions in the Great Plains, specifically dust bowls, have long been a natural occurrence, according to a recent Duke University study.

Jim Clark, H.L. Blomquist Professor of Biology at Duke Universitys Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, summarizes: “What would happen was that the grass would disappear [because of naturally occurring droughts]. So the fuel for fire would be lost. We’d see the erosion start. The chemistry of the lakes would change. We would see these dust-bowl effects. And then, within several decades to a century later, the grasses would come back, fires would start back up and erosion would stop.”

According to Clark, the regularity of these ancient droughts make much more recent Great Plains droughts in the 1890s and 1930s appear “unremarkable” by comparison, even though the contemporary ones “walloped people.” An understanding that extreme weather events have long occurred seriously puts in to question environmentalists assumptions that human activity causes extreme weather events. In fact, Clark went so far as to say, “It’s not only climate change from changing CO2 content in the atmosphere, but also this natural variability out there that we don’t fully understand.” (Duke University press release, Aug. 2).