Science

Antarctic Ice Sheet not in Danger from Global Warming; New Findings Lead to New Predictions; No Flooding Trends in the U.S.

by William Yeatman on January 7, 2003

in Science

Antarctic Ice Sheet not in Danger from Global Warming

Fears that the Western Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) is experiencing accelerated declines due to global warming are unfounded, according to a new study in the Jan. 3 issue of Science. A team of scientists, led by John O. Stone with the Quaternary Research Center and Department of Earth and Space Sciences at the University of Washington, found that deglaciation of the WAIS began at least 10,000 years ago and that the rate of melting has remained constant until the present time.

Robert P. Ackert, Jr., of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, notes in a perspective on the research that only recently have scientists been able to determine conclusively that, “In large and critical areas, the ice sheet surface is lowering and ice volume is decreasing.” This has caused concern because even a 1 percent decrease in ice volume would raise sea level by 5 centimeters and could eventually raise sea level by as much as 5 meters.

“Are we witnessing the early stages of rapid ice sheet collapse, with potential near-term impacts on the worlds coastlines?” asks Ackert. “To answer this question, we must view the new short term measurements in the context of recent ice sheet history and ask whether the observed changes are unusual compared with those of the last 10,000 years. Stone et al. provide a partial answer by reconstructing the recent history of a previously largely unexamined sector of the WAIS.”

Stone et al. found that, “Surface exposure ages of glacial deposits in the Ford Ranges of western Marie Byrd Land indicate continuous thinning of the West Antarctic ice sheet by more than 700 meters near the coast throughout the past 10,000 years. Deglaciation lagged the disappearance of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere by thousands of years and may still be under way. These results provide further evidence that parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are on a long term trajectory of decline. West Antarctic melting contributed water to the oceans in the late Holocene and may continue to do so in the future.”

Ackert notes that, “Recent ice sheet dynamics appear to be dominated by the ongoing response to deglacial forcing thousands of years ago, rather than by recent anthropogenic warming or sea level rise.” On the whole, the WAIS has thinned at a consistent rate of 2.5 to 9 cm/year over the last 9300 years. Ackert also points out that contrary to prior assumptions, “The results suggest that the WAIS is not in equilibrium with present environmental conditions and has been thinning for the last 10,000 years.”

This means that predicting the future behavior of the ice sheet is significantly more difficult than simply building “quasi-steady state models that reproduce the current ice sheet and then perturb them with possible climate or sea-level forcing.” Instead, scientists must use “dynamic models that reproduce the deglacial historyas a baseline.”

New Findings Lead to New Predictions

What happens when you feed real world data into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes climate models? That is the question answered in a new study in the most recent issue of Climate Research. The researchers, led by Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist at the University of Virginia, found that if the IPCCs model is applied to scientific findings that have appeared since the release of its Third Assessment Report, the resulting predictions are significantly less frightening.

The researchers used the IPCCs six major storylines, or projections about population and economic growth, and energy use, and incorporated assumptions that agree with recent scientific developments:

  • Research showing that black carbon aerosols offset the cooling affect of sulfate aerosols that scientists had assumed was masking anthropogenic warming.

  • The iris effect, where high-level tropical cloudiness diminishes in response to temperature increases, allowing the surface to cool, thereby offsetting anthropogenic warming.

  • Adjustments to the rate of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, from a previously assumed exponential increase, to a constant increase as has been observed for the last 25 years.

  • Research showing that the carbon cycle does not intensify in response to higher temperatures.

Plugging this new empirical data into the models, the researchers found that projected warming over the next 100 years falls in the range of 1.0 to 1.6 degrees C, instead of the IPCCs projection of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C.

The study concludes that the upper bound of the new projection is the most likely outcome. This is due to the fact that nearly all climate models show human-induced warming to be constant, and a simple linear extrapolation from those results leads to about 1.5 degrees warming over the next 100 years. This is also borne out in the observed temperature data.

The study also notes that the lower range of its projection is also possible due to the well-known fact that the temperature response to carbon-forcing is logarithmic, or decreases as atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increases. Atmospheric carbon dioxide data “indicate that any exponential rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations is weak at best. Consequently the current linear warming may in fact be the adjustment to exponential growth in CO2 that took place prior to 1975 [emphasis in original].”

Regardless of whether warming will continue to be linear or damp off in the next 100 years, the study concludes that there is little to fear from global warming.

No Flooding Trends in the U.S.

A new study in Geophysical Research Letters (December 24, 2002) finds that fears about an increased hydrological cycle (more flooding) from global warming may be overblown. The researchers, Greg McCabe and David Wolock with the U.S. Geological Survey, analyzed the annual maximum, median and minimum streamflow values from 400 gauging stations throughout the United States from 1941 to 1999. What they found was that after 1970 there is a clear trend of higher average streamflow across the U.S., which is more pronounced in the median and low flow cases than in the high flow case.

They also note, however, that there is a definite jump in 1970 in streamflow levels. McCabe and Wolock then looked at all time periods of all possible durations with a minimum of 10 years and found that there were trends in all time periods that included 1970, but few trends in time periods that do not include that year. In other words, trends in streamflow are rare before and after 1970. The abrupt change in 1970 gives a false impression of a longterm upward trend in streamflow.

Finally, most of the trends are concentrated in the median and low flow categories. Only 60 sites saw trends in the annual high flow category, while 202 showed increases in the low flow category. What this means is that there has been an increase in rainfall during the times of year when water is in short supply, but that there has been no increase in flooding, a rather happy result.

Etc.

Many parts of the world are gripped in some of the most frigid and snowy weather experienced in a long time or ever. Beijing, China had 6 consecutive days of snowfall at Christmas time, the longest consecutive snowfall in that city in 128 years. Chinas largest desert, Taklimakan, received 14 centimeters of snow over several consecutive days.

“Taklimakan has had snow every year since the Xinjiang Regional Meteorological Bureau set up a monitoring station in the desert in the 1990s, but the recorded precipitation has been light. It is rare for the desert to have such a heavy snow,” said Lu Guoying, an expert at the regional meteorological bureau. In northern India and Bangladesh, over 250 people have died from exposure to the cold, as temperatures plummeted to well below freezing.

Even more surprising, people are dying in traditionally cooler climates where a combination of record cold and inadequate energy supplies is taking their toll. Record low temperatures in Norway have wreaked all sorts of havoc for its people. Much of the transit system has been frozen out of service, and electricity prices have skyrocketed as demand for home heating is outstripping inadequate electricity supplies.

Unfortunately, several elderly citizens had to be admitted to the hospital with dangerously low body temperatures. At least three have died from the cold after being found in unheated apartments. According to the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten (January 6, 2003), “Many thrifty, elderly residents have grown worried by reports of record high electricity prices. Too many have opted to turn their heat down to avoid expensive utility bills.” Norway has not built a new power plant in ten years due to environmental politics, according to Still Waiting for Greenhouse (www.john-daly.com).

Many places in Finland have also reached record lows this winter, and the Baltic Seas ice cover is more extensive than it has been in decades. The ice is also 5 to 20 centimeters thicker than usual. According to Helsingin Sanomat (January 8, 2002) “Experts say that the whole Baltic Sea could freeze over all the way to the Straits of Denmark, for the first time since 1948.” Finland is also experiencing shortfalls in electricity supply and has had to import almost 2,000 MW of electricity from Russia and Sweden to keep the lights on and the heaters running.

Finally, 40 ships have been trapped in the ice in the Gulf of Finland in Russia. Moscow reached temperatures as low as -37 degrees C, and as many as 23,000 people are without heat as antiquated systems have broken down.

A Climate Change Glossary

by William Yeatman on December 31, 2002

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics, Science, Students

Please note that this glossary was compiled with defininitions from the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

Absorption of Radiation. The uptake of radiation by a solid body, liquid or gas. The absorbed energy may be transferred or re-emitted.

Acid Rain. Also known as “acid deposition.” Acidic aerosols in the atmosphere are removed from the atmosphere by wet deposition (rain, snow, fog) or dry deposition (particles sticking to vegetation). Acidic aerosols are present in the atmosphere primarily due to discharges of gaseous sulfur oxides (sulfur dioxide) and nitrogen oxides from both anthropogenic and natural sources. In the atmosphere these gases combine with water to form acids.

Aerosols. Particles of matter, solid or liquid, larger than a molecule but small enough to remain suspended in the atmosphere. Natural sources include salt particles from sea spray and clay particles as a result of weathering of rocks, both of which are carried upward by the wind. Aerosols can also originate as a result of human activities and in this case are often considered pollutants. See also Sulfate Aerosols.

Albedo. The ratio of reflected to incident light; albedo can be expressed as either a percentage or a fraction of 1. Snow covered areas have a high albedo (up to about 0.9 or 90%) due to their white color, while vegetation has a low albedo (generally about 0.1 or 10%) due to the dark color and light absorbed for photosynthesis. Clouds have an intermediate albedo and are the most important contributor to the Earth’s albedo. The Earth’s aggregate albedo is approximately 0.3.

Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). The group of Pacific and Caribbean nations who call for relatively fast action by developed nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The AOSIS countries fear the effects of rising sea levels and increased storm activity predicted to accompany global warming. Its plan is to hold Annex I Parties to a 20 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2005.

Annex I Parties. Industrialized countries that, as parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, have pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2000 to 1990 levels. Annex I Parties consist of countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and countries designated as Economies-in-Transition.

Anthropogenic. Derived from human activities.

Atmosphere. The mixture of gases surrounding the Earth. The Earth’s atmosphere consists of about 79.1% nitrogen (by volume), 20.9% oxygen, 0.036% carbon dioxide and trace amounts of other gases. The atmosphere can be divided into a number of layers according to its mixing or chemical characteristics, generally determined by its thermal properties (temperature). The layer nearest the Earth is the troposphere, which reaches up to an altitude of about 8 km (about 5 miles) in the polar regions and up to 17 km (nearly 11 miles) above the equator. The stratosphere, which reaches to an altitude of about 50 km (31 miles) lies atop the troposphere. The mesosphere which extends up to 80-90 km is atop the stratosphere, and finally, the thermosphere, or ionosphere, gradually diminishes and forms a fuzzy border with outer space. There is relatively little mixing of gases between layers.

Baseline Emissions. The emissions that would occur without policy intervention (in a business-as-usual scenario). Baseline estimates are needed to determine the effectiveness of emissions reduction programs (often called mitigation strategies).

Berlin Mandate. A ruling negotiated at the first Conference of the Parties (CoP 1), which took place in March, 1995, concluding that the present commitments under the Framework Convention on Climate Change are not adequate. Under the Framework Convention, developed countries pledged to take measures aimed at returning their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The Berlin Mandate establishes a process that would enable the Parties to take appropriate action for the period beyond 2000, including a strengthening of developed country commitments, through the adoption of a protocol or other legal instruments.

Biogeochemical Cycle. The chemical interactions that take place among the atmosphere, biosphere , hydrosphere, and geosphere.

Biomass. Organic nonfossil material of biological origin. For example, trees and plants are biomass.

Biomass Energy. Energy produced by combusting renewable biomass materials such as wood. The carbon dioxide emitted from burning biomass will not increase total atmospheric carbon dioxide if this consumption is done on a sustainable basis (i.e., if in a given period of time, regrowth of biomass takes up as much carbon dioxide as is released from biomass combustion). Biomass energy is often suggested as a replacement for fossil fuel combustion which has large greenhouse gas emissions.

Biosphere. The region on land, in the oceans, and in the atmosphere inhabited by living organisms.

Borehole. Any exploratory hole drilled into the Earth or ice to gather geophysical data. Climate researchers often take ice core samples, a type of borehole, to predict atmospheric composition in earlier years.

Carbon Cycle. The global scale exchange of carbon among its reservoirs, namely the atmosphere, oceans, vegetation, soils, and geologic deposits and minerals. This involves components in food chains, in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, in the hydrosphere and in the geosphere.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2). The greenhouse gas whose concentration is being most affected directly by human activities. CO2 also serves as the reference to compare all other greenhouse gases (see carbon dioxide equivalents). The major source of CO2 emissions is fossil fuel combustion. CO2 emissions are also a product of forest clearing, biomass burning, and non-energy production processes such as cement production. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have been increasing at a rate of about 0.5% per year and are now about 30% above preindustrial levels.

Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CDE). A metric measure used to compare the emissions from various greenhouse gases based upon their global warming potential (GWP). Carbon dioxide equivalents are commonly expressed as “million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCDE)” or “million short tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MSTCDE)” The carbon dioxide equivalent for a gas is derived by multiplying the tons of the gas by the associated GWP.

MMTCDE= (million metric tons of a gas) * (GWP of the gas)

For example, the GWP for methane is 24.5. This means that emissions of one million metric tons of methane is equivalent to emissions of 24.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. Carbon may also be used as the reference and other greenhouse gases may be converted to carbon equivalents. To convert carbon to carbon dioxide, multiply the carbon by 44/12 (the ratio of the molecular weight of carbon dioxide to carbon).

Carbon Equivalent (CE). A metric measure used to compare the emissions of the different greenhouse gases based upon their global warming potential (GWP). Greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. are most commonly expressed as “million metric tons of carbon equivalents” (MMTCE). Global warming potentials are used to convert greenhouse gases to carbon dioxide equivalents. Carbon dioxide equivalents can then be converted to carbon equivalents by multiplying the carbon dioxide equivalents by 12/44 (the ratio of the molecular weight of carbon to carbon dioxide). Thus, the formula to derive carbon equivalents is:

MMTCE = (million metric tons of a gas) * (GWP of the gas) * (12/44)

Carbon Sequestration. The uptake and storage of carbon. Trees and plants, for example, absorb carbon dioxide, release the oxygen and store the carbon. Fossil fuels were at one time biomass and continue to store the carbon until burned.

Carbon Sinks. Carbon reservoirs and conditions that take in and store more carbon (carbon sequestration) than they release. Carbon sinks can serve to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Forests and oceans are common carbon sinks.

Chlorofluorocarbons and Related Compounds. This family of anthropogenic compounds includes chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), bromofluorcarbons (halons), methyl chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, methyl bromide, and hydrochlorofluorcarbons (HCFCs). These compounds have been shown to deplete stratospheric ozone, and therefore are typically referred to as ozone depleting substances. The most ozone-depleting of these compounds are being phased out under the Montreal Protocol.

Climate. The average weather (usually taken over a 30-year time period) for a particular region and time period. Climate is not the same as weather, but rather, it is the average pattern of weather for a particular region. Weather describes the short-term state of the atmosphere. Climatic elements include precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and hail storms, and other measures of the weather.

Climate Change (also referred to as ‘global climate change’). The term ‘climate change’ is sometimes used to refer to all forms of climatic inconsistency, but because the Earth’s climate is never static, the term is more properly used to imply a significant change from one climatic condition to another. In some cases, ‘climate change’ has been used synonymously with the term, ‘global warming’; scientists however, tend to use the term in the wider sense to also include natural changes in climate. See also Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.

Climate Change Action Plan (). Unveiled in October, 1993 by President Clinton, the CCAP is the U.S. plan for meeting its pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the terms of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The goal of the CCAP is to reduce U.S. emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The CCAP, which consists of some 50 voluntary federal programs that span all sectors of the economy, uses a win-win approach by helping program partners save energy, save money, and gain access to clean technology while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Feedback. An atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, or other process that is activated by the direct climate change induced by changes in radiative forcing. Climate feedbacks may increase (positive feedback) or diminish (negative feedback) the magnitude of the direct climate change.

Climate Lag. The delay that occurs in climate change as a result of some factor that changes only very slowly. For example, the effects of releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere may not be known for some time because a large fraction is dissolved in the ocean and only released to the atmosphere many years later.

Climate Model. A quantitative way of representing the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. Models can range from relatively simple to quite comprehensive. Also see General Circulation Model.

Climate Modeling. The simulation of the climate using computer-based models. Also see General Circulation Model.

Climate Sensitivity. The equilibrium response of the climate to a change in radiative forcing; for example, a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration.

Climate System (or Earth System). The atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere, the cryosphere, and the geosphere, together make up the climate system.

Cogeneration. The process by which two different and useful forms of energy are produced at the same time. For example, while boiling water to generate electricity, the leftover steam can be sold for industrial processes or space heating.

Compost. Decayed organic matter that can be used as a fertilizer or soil additive.

Conference of the Parties (CoP). The CoP is the collection of nations which have ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), currently over 150 strong, and about 50 Observer States. The primary role of the CoP is to keep the implementation of the Convention under review and to take the decisions necessary for the effective implementation of the Convention. The first CoP (CoP 1) took place in Berlin from March 28th to April 7th, 1995, and was attended by over 1000 observers and 2000 media representatives.

Cryosphere. The frozen part of the Earth’s surface. The cryosphere includes the polar ice caps, continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, sea ice, snow cover, lake and river ice, and permafrost.

Deforestation. Those practices or processes that result in the change of forested lands to non-forest uses. This is often cited as one of the major causes of the enhanced greenhouse effect for two reasons: 1) the burning or decomposition of the wood releases carbon dioxide; and 2) trees that once removed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the process of photosynthesis are no longer present and contributing to carbon storage.

Desertification. The progressive destruction or degradation of existing vegetative cover to form desert. This can occur due to overgrazing, deforestation, drought, and the burning of extensive areas. Once formed, deserts can only support a sparse range of vegetation. Climatic effects associated with this phenomenon include increased albedo, reduced atmospheric humidity, and greater atmospheric dust (aerosol) loading.

El Nino. A climatic phenomenon occurring irregularly, but generally every 3 to 5 years. El Ninos often first become evident during the Christmas season (El Nino means Christ child) in the surface oceans of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon involves seasonal changes in the direction of the tropical winds over the Pacific and abnormally warm surface ocean temperatures. The changes in the tropics are most intense in the Pacific region, these changes can disrupt weather patterns throughout the tropics and can extend to higher latitudes, especially in Central and North America. The relationship between these events and global weather patterns are currently the subject of much research in order to enhance prediction of seasonal to interannual fluctuations in the climate.

Emissions. The release of a substance (usually a gas when referring to the subject of climate change) into the atmosphere.

Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. The natural greenhouse effect has been enhanced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3, and other photochemically important gases caused by human activities such as fossil fuel consumption and adding waste to landfills, trap more infra-red radiation, thereby exerting a warming influence on the climate. See Climate Change and Global Warming.

Evapotranspiration. The sum of evaporation and plant transpiration. Potential evapotranspiration is the amount of water that could be evaporated or transpired at a given temperature and humidity, if there was plenty of water available. Actual evapotranspiration can not be any greater than precipitation, and will usually be less because some water will run off in rivers and flow to the oceans. If potential evapotranspiration is greater than actual precipitation, then soils are extremely dry during at least a major part of the year.

Feedback Mechanisms. A mechanism that connects one aspect of a system to another. The connection can be either amplifying (positive feedback) or moderating (negative feedback). See also Climate Feedback.

Carbon Dioxide Fertilization. An expression (sometimes reduced to ‘fertilization’) used to denote increased plant growth due to a higher carbon dioxide concentration.

Fertilization. A term used to denote efforts to enhance plant growth by increased application of nitrogen-based fertilizer or increased deposition of nitrates in precipitation.

Fluorocarbons. Carbon-fluorine compounds that often contain other elements such as hydrogen, chlorine, or bromine. Common fluorocarbons include chlorofluorocarbons and related compounds (also know as ozone depleting substances), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorcarbons (PFCs).

Forcing Mechanism. A process that alters the energy balance of the climate system, i.e. changes the relative balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation from Earth. Such mechanisms include changes in solar irradiance, volcanic eruptions, and enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect by emission of carbon dioxide. See also Radiative Forcing.

Fossil Fuel. A general term for combustible geologic deposits of carbon in reduced (organic) form and of biological origin, including coal, oil, natural gas, oil shales, and tar sands. A major concern is that they emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere when burnt, thus significantly contributing to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Fossil Fuel Combustion. Burning of coal, oil (including gasoline), or natural gas. This burning, usually to generate energy, releases carbon dioxide, as well as combustion by products that can include unburned hydrocarbons, methane, and carbon monoxide. Carbon monoxide, methane, and many of the unburned hydrocarbons slowly oxidize into carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Common sources of fossil fuel combustion include cars and electric utilities.

Framework Convention on Climate Change (). The landmark international treaty unveiled at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, also known as the “Rio Summit”), in June 1992. The FCCC commits signatory countries to stabilize anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) greenhouse gas emissions to ‘levels that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. The FCCC also requires that all signatory parties develop and update national inventories of anthropogenic emissions of all greenhouse gases not otherwise controlled by the Montreal Protocol. Out of 155 countries that have ratified this accord, the U.S. was the first industrialized nation to do so.

General Circulation Model (GCM). A global, three-dimensional computer model of the climate system which can be used to simulate human-induced climate change. GCMs are highly complex and they represent the effects of such factors as reflective and absorptive properties of atmospheric water vapor, greenhouse gas concentrations, clouds, annual and daily solar heating, ocean temperatures and ice boundaries. The most recent GCMs include global representations of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface.

Geosphere. The soils, sediments, and rock layers of the Earth’s crust, both continental and beneath the ocean floors.

Global Warming. An increase in the near surface temperature of the Earth. Global warming has occurred in the distant past as the result of natural influences, but the term is most often used to refer to the warming predicted to occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Scientists generally agree that the Earth’s surface has warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past 140 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing an increase in the Earth’s surface temperature and that increased concentrations of sulfate aerosols have led to relative cooling in some regions, generally over and downwind of heavily industrialized areas. Also see Climate Change and Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.

Global Warming Potential (GWP). The index used to translate the level of emissions of various gases into a common measure in order to compare the relative radiative forcing of different gases without directly calculating the changes in atmospheric concentrations. GWPs are calculated as the ratio of the radiative forcing that would result from the emissions of one kilogram of a greenhouse gas to that from emission of one kilogram of carbon dioxide over a period of time (usually 100 years). Gases involved in complex atmospheric chemical processes have not been assigned GWPs due to complications that arise. Greenhouse gases are expressed in terms of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has presented these GWPs and regularly updates them in new assessments. The chart below shows the original GWPs (assigned in 1990) and the most recent GWPs (assigned in 1996) for the most important greenhouse gases.

GAS GWP 1990 GWP 1996
Carbon Dioxide 1 1
Methane 22 21
Nitrous Oxide 270 310
HFC-134a 1,200 1,300
HFC-23 10,000 11,700
HFC-152a 150 140
HCF-125 NA* 2,800
PFCs** 5,400 7,850
SF6 NA* 23,900

* Not Applicable. GWP was not yet estimated for this gas.

**This figure is an average GWP for the two PFCs, CF4 and C2F6.

Greenhouse Effect. The effect produced as greenhouse gases allow incoming solar radiation to pass through the Earth’s atmosphere, but prevent most of the outgoing infra-red radiation from the surface and lower atmosphere from escaping into outer space. This process occurs naturally and has kept the Earth’s temperature about 59 degrees F warmer than it would otherwise be. Current life on Earth could not be sustained without the natural greenhouse effect.

Greenhouse Gas. Any gas that absorbs infra-red radiation in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs) , ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

Halocarbons. Chemicals consisting of carbon, sometimes hydrogen, and either chlorine, fluorine bromine or iodine.

Halons. These man-made substances (also known as bromofluorocarbons) are chlorofluorocarbons that contain bromine. See also Chlorofluorocarbons and Related Compounds.

Hydrocarbons. Substances containing only hydrogen and carbon. Fossil fuels are made up of hydrocarbons. Some hydrocarbon compounds are major air pollutants.

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). These chemicals (along with perfluorocarbons) were introduced as alternatives to ozone depleting substances in serving many industrial, commercial, and personal needs. HFCs are emitted as by-products of industrial processes and are also used in manufacturing. They do not significantly deplete the stratospheric ozone layer, but they are powerful greenhouse gases with global warming potentials ranging from 140 (HFC-152a) to 12,100 (HFC-23).

Hydrosphere. The part of the Earth composed of water including clouds, oceans, seas, ice caps, glaciers, lakes, rivers, underground water supplies, and atmospheric water vapor.

HyperText.On the web, text links move you easily from one location to another. For example, go to the site’s navigation page.

Ice Core. A cylindrical section of ice removed from a glacier or an ice sheet in order to study climate patterns of the past. By performing chemical analyses on the air trapped in the ice, scientists can estimate the percentage of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere at that time.

Infra-red Radiation. The heat energy that is emitted from all solids, liquids, and gases. In the context of the greenhouse issue, the term refers to the heat energy emitted by the Earth’s surface and its atmosphere. Greenhouse gases strongly absorb this radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere, and reradiate some back towards the surface, creating the greenhouse effect.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC was established jointly by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988. The purpose of the IPCC is to assess information in the scientific and technical literature related to all significant components of the issue of climate change. The IPCC draws upon hundreds of the world’s expert scientists as authors and thousands as expert reviewers. Leading experts on climate change and environmental, social, and economic sciences from some 60 nations have helped the IPCC to prepare periodic assessments of the scientific underpinnings for understanding global climate change and its consequences. With its capacity for reporting on climate change, its consequences, and the viability of adaptation and mitigation measures, the IPCC is also looked to as the official advisory body to the world’s governments on the state of the science of the climate change issue. For example, the IPCC organized the development of internationally accepted methods for conducting national greenhouse gas emission inventories.

Joint Implementation. Agreements made between two or more nations under the auspices of the Framework Convention on Climate Change to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Lifetime (Atmospheric). The lifetime of a greenhouse gas refers to the approximate amount of time it would take for the anthropogenic increment to an atmospheric pollutant concentration to return to its natural level (assuming emissions cease) as a result of either being converted to another chemical compound or being taken out of the atmosphere via a sink. This time depends on the pollutant’s sources and sinks as well as its reactivity. The lifetime of a pollutant is often considered in conjunction with the mixing of pollutants in the atmosphere; a long lifetime will allow the pollutant to mix throughout the atmosphere. Average lifetimes can vary from about a week (sulfate aerosols) to more than a century (CFCs, carbon dioxide).

Mauna Loa. A volcano on the island of Hawaii where scientists have maintained the longest continuous collection of reliable daily atmospheric records.

Meteorology. The science of weather-related phenomena.

Methane (CH4). A hydrocarbon that is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential most recently estimated at 24.5. Methane is produced through anaerobic (without oxygen) decomposition of waste in landfills, animal digestion, decomposition of animal wastes, production and distribution of natural gas and oil, coal production , and incomplete fossil fuel combustion. The atmospheric concentration of methane has been shown to be increasing at a rate of about 0.6% per year and the concentration of about 1.7 parts per million by volume (ppmv) is more than twice its preindustrial value. However, the rate of increase of methane in the atmosphere may be stabilizing.

Metric Ton. Common international measurement for the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions. A metric ton is equal to 2205 lbs or 1.1 short tons.

Mount Pinatubo. A volcano in the Philippine Islands that erupted in 1991. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo ejected enough particulate and sulfate aerosol matter into the atmosphere to block some of the incoming solar radiation from reaching Earth’s atmosphere. This effectively cooled the planet from 1992 to 1994, masking the warming that had been occurring for most of the 1980s and 1990s.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx). Gases consisting of one molecule of nitrogen and varying numbers of oxygen molecules. Nitrogen oxides are produced in the emissions of vehicle exhausts and from power stations. In the atmosphere, nitrogen oxides can contribute to formation of photochemical ozone (smog), can impair visibility, and have health consequences; they are thus considered pollutants.

Nitrous Oxide (N2O). A powerful greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of 320. Major sources of nitrous oxide include soil cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning.

Ozone (O3). Ozone consists of three atoms of oxygen bonded together in contrast to normal atmospheric oxygen which consists of two atoms of oxygen. Ozone is an important greenhouse gas found in both the stratosphere (about 90% of the total atmospheric loading) and the troposphere (about 10%). Ozone has other effects beyond acting as a greenhouse gas. In the stratosphere, ozone provides a protective layer shielding the Earth from ultraviolet radiation and subsequent harmful health effect on humans and the environment. In the troposphere, oxygen molecules in ozone combine with other chemicals and gases (oxidization) to cause smog.

Particulates. Tiny pieces of solid or liquid matter, such as soot, dust, fumes, or mist.

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs). A group of human-made chemicals composed of carbon and fluorine only: CF4 and C2F6. These chemicals, specifically CF4 and C2F6, (along with hydrofluorocarbons) were introduced as alternatives to the ozone depleting substances. In addition, they are emitted as by-products of industrial processes and are also used in manufacturing. PFCs do not harm the stratospheric ozone layer, but they are powerful greenhouse gases: CF4 has a global warming potential (GWP) of 6,300 and C2F6 has a GWP of 12,500.

Photosynthesis. The process by which green plants use light to synthesize organic compounds from carbon dioxide and water. In the process oxygen and water are released. Increased levels of carbon dioxide can increase net photosynthesis in some plants. Plants create a very important reservoir for carbon dioxide.

Pollutant. Strictly, too much of any substance in the wrong place or at the wrong time is a pollutant. More specifically, atmospheric pollution may be defined as the presence of substances in the atmosphere, resulting from man-made activities or from natural processes that cause adverse effects to human health, property, and the environment.

Precautionary Approach. The approach promoted under the Framework Convention of Climate Change to help achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.

Precession. The tendency of the Earth’s axis to wobble in space over a period of 23,000 years. The Earth’s precession is one of the factors that results in the planet receiving different amounts of solar energy over extended periods of time.

Radiation. Energy emitted in the form of electromagnetic waves. Radiation has differing characteristics depending upon the wavelength. Because the radiation from the Sun is relatively energetic, it has a short wavelength (ultra-violet, visible, and near infra-red) while energy re-radiated from the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere has a longer wavelength (infra-red radiation) because the Earth is cooler than the Sun.

Radiative Forcing. A change in the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infra-red radiation. Without any radiative forcing, solar radiation coming to the Earth would continue to be approximately equal to the infra-red radiation emitted from the Earth. The addition of greenhouse gases traps and increased fraction of the infra-red radiation, reradiating it back toward the surface and creating a warming influence (i.e., positive radiative forcing because incoming solar radiation will exceed outgoing infra-red radiation).

Residence Time. The average time spent in a reservoir by an individual atom or molecule. Also, the age of a molecule when it leaves the reservoir. With respect to greenhouse gases, residence time usually refers to how long a particular molecule remains in the atmosphere.

Respiration. The process by which animals use up stored foods (by combustion with oxygen) to produce energy.

Short Ton. Common measurement for a ton in the United States. A short ton is equal to 2,000 lbs or 0.907 metric tons.

Sink. A reservoir that uptakes a pollutant from another part of its cycle. Soil and trees tend to act as natural sinks for carbon.

Solar Radiation. Energy from the Sun. Also referred to as short-wave radiation. Of importance to the climate system, solar radiation includes ultra-violet radiation, visible radiation, and infra-red radiation.

Stratosphere. The part of the atmosphere directly above the troposphere. See Atmosphere.

Sulfate Aerosol. Particulate matter that consists of compounds of sulfur formed by the interaction of sulfur dioxide and sulfur trioxide with other compounds in the atmosphere. Sulfate aerosols are injected into the atmosphere from the combustion of fossil fuels and the eruption of volcanoes like Mt. Pinatubo. Recent theory suggests that sulfate aerosols may lower the earth’s temperature by reflecting away solar radiation (negative radiative forcing). Global Climate Models which incorporate the effects of sulfate aerosols more accurately predict global temperature variations.

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2). A compound composed of one sulfur and two oxygen molecules. Sulfur dioxide emitted into the atmosphere through natural and anthropogenic processes is changed in a complex series of chemical reactions in the atmosphere to sulfate aerosols. These aerosols result in negative radiative forcing (i.e., tending to cool the Earth’s surface).

Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6). A very powerful greenhouse gas used primarily in electrical transmission and distribution systems. SF6 has a global warming potential of 24,900.

Trace Gas. Any one of the less common gases found in the Earth’s atmosphere. Nitrogen, oxygen, and argon make up more than 99 percent of the Earth’s atmosphere. Other gases, such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, oxides of nitrogen, ozone, and ammonia, are considered trace gases. Although relatively unimportant in terms of their absolute volume, they have significant effects on the Earth’s weather and climate.

Troposphere. The lowest layer of the atmosphere. The troposphere extends from the Earth’s surface up to about 10-15 km. See also Atmosphere.

Tropospheric Ozone (O3). Ozone that is located in the troposphere and plays a significant role in the greenhouse gas effect and urban smog. See Ozone for more details.

Tropospheric Ozone Precursor. Gases that influence the rate at which ozone is created and destroyed in the atmosphere. Such gases include: carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs).

Water Vapor. The most abundant greenhouse gas, it is the water present in the atmosphere in gaseous form. Water vapor is an important part of the natural greenhouse effect. While humans are not significantly increasing its concentration, it contributes to the enhanced greenhouse effect because the warming influence of greenhouse gases leads to a positive water vapor feedback. In addition to its role as a natural greenhouse gas, water vapor plays an important role in regulating the temperature of the planet because clouds form when excess water vapor in the atmosphere condenses to form ice and water droplets and precipitation.

Weather. Weather is the specific condition of the atmosphere at a particular place and time. It is measured in terms of such things as wind, temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness, and precipitation. In most places, weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, and season-to-season. Climate is the average of weather over time and space. A simple way of remembering the difference is that ‘climate’ is what you expect (e.g., cold winters) and ‘weather’ is what you get (e.g., a blizzard).

Evaporation Declines Despite Model Predictions; Pacific Oscillation Drives Climate Change

by William Yeatman on November 26, 2002

in Science

Evaporation Declines Despite Model Predictions

Global warming predictions depend on assumptions about certain “feedback effects.” The key feedback effect driving predictions of catastrophic global warming has to do with changes in evaporation and concentrations of atmospheric water vapor. According to the theory, a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would raise global temperatures approximately one degree Celsius over the next century. That small amount of warming, however, would increase evaporation at the surface, raising concentrations of water vapor, a major greenhouse gas, in the atmosphere. It is this positive feedback effect that would cause the lions share of warming, according to the climate models.

A new empirical study in the November 15 issue of Science fails to confirm this feedback hypothesis. The authors, Michael Roderick and Graham Farquhar with the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Accounting at the Australian National University in Canberra, found that evaporation in the Northern Hemisphere has actually decreased over the past 50 years. They refer to this difference between the expected and observed trend in evaporation as the “pan evaporation paradox.”

The authors argue that there really is no paradox, however. They argue that reduced evaporation is due to “a substantial decline in global solar irradiance as a consequence of increased cloud coverage and/or aerosol concentration.” Although the authors do present data to support their view that solar irradiance has decreased, they offer no support that it may be caused by increases in aerosol concentrations. Indeed, there has been a steady decline in aerosol concentrations over the last 50 years. That aside, the fact that evaporation has decreased while temperatures have apparently increased strikes another blow to the confidence that can be placed in climate models predictions.

Pacific Oscillation Drives Climate Change

A new study in the Geophysical Research Letters (October 8, 2002) suggests that long-term changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures may be the key to understanding global climate change. “Abrupt changes in water temperatures occurring over intervals of up to 25 years suggest that global warming may result as much from natural cyclical variations as from human activity,” said Benjamin Giese, of the College of Geosciences at Texas A&M and a co-author of the study.

“Climate models constructed here at Texas A&M University were used to analyze ocean surface temperature records in the tropical Pacific since 1950,” said Giese. “The results suggest that as much as one-half of all global surface warming since the 1970s may be part of natural variation as distinct from the result of greenhouse gases.”

Giese noted that over the last 50 years it appears that global surface temperatures have increased about a half degree Celsius, but that the general trend is highly variable. “How much of this variability is attributable to natural variations and how much is due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric greenhouse gases has not yet been resolved,” he said. “Recent studies indicate that it is difficult to separate intrinsic variance from anthropogenic forcing in the climate system.”

The data on tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures show that long-term increases in ocean temperatures precede changes in global surface air temperatures by about four years. These changes in ocean temperatures are in turn preceded by seven years by deeper subsurface water temperature changes. “Thus, the results suggest that much of the decade to decade variations in global air temperature may be attributed to tropical Pacific decadal variability,” said Giese. “The results also suggest that subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific can be used as a predictor of decadal variations of global surface temperature.”

An abrupt temperature change in the Pacific Ocean in 1976 preceded a two-tenths of a degree increase in global air temperatures. Moreover, it now appears that the tropical Pacific Ocean temperature is now shifting back to pre-1976 conditions. “The subsurface tropical Pacific has shown a distinct cooling trend over the last eight years, so the possibility exists that a warming trend in global surface air temperature observed since the late 1970s may soon weaken,” according to Giese.

Announcements

Taken By Storm: The Troubled Science, Policy and Politics of Global Warming has just been published in Canada by Key Porter Books. The authors are Ross McKitrick, an economist with the University of Guelph in Ontario and a Cooler Heads Coalition lecturer in 2001, and Christopher Essex, a mathematician at the University of Western Ontario who specializes in the underlying mathematics, physics and computation of complex dynamical processes such as climate. The authors “explain the science of climate change and show that the widespread belief in global warming is really a house of cards.” Further information is available at www.takenbystorm.info.

Offshore Wind Farm Poses Significant Economic and Environmental Costs; San Francisco Leaps Into Solar Power

by William Yeatman on November 26, 2002

in Politics, Science, Small business

Offshore Wind Farm Poses Significant Economic and Environmental Costs

Energy analyst Glenn Schleede has once again exposed the problems with wind power in comments he has submitted to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which is conducting an economic and environmental analysis of a proposed offshore wind farm.

The wind farm proposed by Winergy LLC would be located five miles off the coast of the eastern shore of Virginia. In a preliminary analysis, the Corps determined that the project would not require an Environmental Impact Statement. Schleede disagrees, saying that the Corps has “underestimated the potential environmental impactincluding onshore impact” of the project.

The wind farm would produce approximately 2.5 billion kWh of electricity per year, assuming a generous 30 percent capacity factor. The wind turbines themselves would cover 57 square miles of the Atlantic Ocean, yet would produce slightly less electricity than a “new baseload 350 MW gas-fired combined cycle generating unit,” which would “occupy only a few acres.” Moreover, the amount of electricity produced would only equal approximately 3.3 percent of the total electricity produced in Virginia.

Schleede points out several potential adverse effects that should be mitigated as a condition to awarding any permits, including impacts that would not be limited to the 57 square miles of ocean. “Feeding such a potentially large (975 MW, at times), highly variable (from 0 to 975 MW), and often unpredictable amount of electricity into an onshore transmission line and electric grid would be a significant burden on existing onshore transmission capacity and the stability of a regional electric system that must be kept in balance (e.g., voltage, frequency).”

The addition of wind capacity would likely “impair rather than enhance electric system reliability,” says Schleede. The Corps should also take into account the need for backup generation and transmission capacity as part of the full costs of the wind farm.

The Corps should also have a firm grasp of wind energy economics and especially the role of federal subsidies, says Schleede. “In some cases, the value of the subsidies may exceed the revenue wind farm owners receive from the electricity that they sell. Schleede estimates that Winergys proposed wind farm would receive an annual tax credit of more than $46 million. The project would also qualify for accelerated depreciation and would be able to write off the entire $900 million in estimated capital costs in 6 years. Yet the annual revenue from selling electricity would be only a little over $52 million. Schleede also notes that tax sheltering through accelerated depreciation often leads to early sale or abandonment of wind farms.

Finally, Schleede argues that rather than being environmentally benign, wind farms entail significant environmental costs. He notes the opposition to wind farms is growing around the world, “often due to the adverse impact of wind farms on environmental, ecological, scenic, and property values.”

Stanford Launches Energy Project

On Nov. 20, Stanford University announced the creation of the Global Climate and Energy Project (G-CEP). The purpose of the project is to “engage in research to develop technologies that foster the development of a global energy system where greenhouse emissions are much lower than today.” It may also be seen as addressing the challenge posed by the article in the November 1 issue of Science, which we reported in the last issue.

Funding commitments from three major corporations totaling $225 million over the next 10 years were also announced, with several other corporations expected to make additional commitments in the near future. ExxonMobil, the worlds largest publicly-traded petroleum company, plans to contribute up to $100 million; General Electric, the world leader in power generation technology and services, $50 million; and Schlumberger, a global technology services company, $25 million. Stanford engineers and scientists will do much of the research, but will be joined by other major institutions in North America, Europe and Asia.

The project was immediately criticized as inadequate, and ExxonMobils role was attacked. “Im somewhat skeptical, given the history of some of the companies involved in this, that it represents a dramatic change in their resistance to aggressive federal and state policy action on the issue,” said Alden M. Meyer, director of government relations for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“This could be seen as another effort [by ExxonMobil] to say, Were doing something, but this is a complex problem thats going to take decades to solve and, in the meantime, lets not do anything aggressive with fuel economy standards or anything else that actually reduces oil use today,” he said (Los Angeles Times, November 21, 2002).

Lee Raymond, chairman of ExxonMobil, responded that, “Our investment in G-CEP is a demonstration of our long-held belief that successful development and global deployment of innovative, commercially viable technology is the only path that can address long-term climate-change risks while preserving and promoting prosperity of the world’s economies.”

San Francisco Leaps Into Solar Power

Following a major referendum last year in which San Francisco residents approved a $100 million bond measure to install as many solar panels in the city as the rest of the nation does all year, Mayor Willie Brown announced a $7.4 million project to install solar panels on the roof to the Moscone Convention Center. “The Moscone Center project itself couldnt be better. It is a gem which should make city leaders across the country salivate,” said Brown. “It would be fiscally irresponsible not to do a project like this” (Associated Press, November 22, 2002).

The economics of the project dont look good, however. The project, which will also include retrofitting for energy efficient fixtures, will save the city a mere $210,000 per year, meaning it will take more than 35 years for the project to “pay for itself (San Francisco Chronicle, November 22, 2002).” Several other cities are considering following San Franciscos example. Brown says that he has heard from 15 other cities that are considering similar programs, including San Diego, Denver and New York (Los Angeles Times, November 22, 2002).

Prospects of Stabilizing Emissions Appear Bleak; Global Warming and Heat-Related Mortality

by William Yeatman on November 12, 2002

in Kyoto Negotiations, Science

Prospects of Stabilizing Emissions Appear Bleak

In a major challenge to the conventional wisdom, a team of scientists has delivered a devastating blow to the Kyoto Protocol in a review of energy technologies published in the November 1 issue of Science.

The lead author is Martin Hoffert, a physicist at New York University. Also notable among the authors are the popular science fiction writer Gregory Benford, a physicist at the University of California, Irvine, Michael Schlesinger, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois, and Tom Wigley, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and long time promoter of climate alarmism.

The review, which takes catastrophic global warming claims at face value, argues that our fossil fuel-dominated energy system “cannot be regulated away.” Indeed, the only real solution is “the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.”

This challenge is presented in stark terms. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for a stabilization of greenhouse gases at levels that avoid “dangerous anthropogenic (man-made) interference with the climate system.” The authors argue that stabilization at levels as low as 450 parts per million (ppm) may be necessary to do this. “Targets of cutting to 450 ppm…could require Herculean effort,” says the report. “Even holding at 550 ppm is a major challenge.”

Currently, the worlds power consumption is about 12 trillion watts, 85 percent of which is supplied by fossil fuels. By 2050, energy consumption will be as much as three times the amount currently produced by fossil fuels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claimed in its latest report that, “Known technological options could achieve a broad range of atmospheric CO2 stabilization levels, such as 550 ppm, 450 ppm or below over the next 100 years or more.” The authors disagree. “This statement does not recognize the CO2 emission-free power requirements implied by the IPCCs own reports…. Energy sources that can produce 100 to 300 percent of present world power consumption without greenhouse emissions do not exist operationally or as pilot plants.”

The authors assess various possible methods to achieve the requisite greenhouse gas reductions, such as efficiency improvements, decarbonization and sequestration, renewables, nuclear power, and geoengineering. Nuclear fusion appears to be the best option, according to the review. “Despite enormous hurdles,” it says, “the most promising long-term nuclear power source is still fusion.” The other potential solutions considered by the authors are far from promising.

Decarbonization is moving from high carbon fuels such as coal to low carbon fuels such as natural gas, and eventually to carbon neutral fuels such as hydrogen. But hydrogen does not exist in geological reservoirs and must be extracted from fossil fuel feedstocks or water. “Per unit of heat generated, more CO2 is produced by making H2 [hydrogen] from fossil fuel than by burning the fossil fuel directly,” says the review. Getting the hydrogen from water is even less viable.

Renewable energy, such as solar or wind power, is not a viable solution either. “All renewables suffer from low areal power densities,” write the authors. Thus they require enormous amounts of land. Moreover, “Renewables are intermittent dispersed sources unsuited to baseload without transmission, storage, and power conditioning.”

The article concludes that the ability to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions without seriously damaging the economy is not possible at this time. “CO2 is a combustion product vital to how civilization is powered.” All of the approaches discussed in the paper to replace fossil fuels “have serious deficiencies that limit their ability to stabilize global climate.”

Global Warming and Heat-Related Mortality

One of the speculative impacts of global warming is the increase of heat-related mortality due to rising summertime temperatures. A study in Climate Research (September 6, 2002) finds that there is no evidence to support that claim.

The team of researchers, led by Robert Davis of the University of Virginia, looked at the impact of high temperatures on daily mortality rates over four decades in six major metropolitan areas along the U.S. east coast from north to south. What they found was that in the three southernmost cities, there were few significant mortality effects related to temperature extremes. But in the three northernmost cities, there was a significant decline in population-adjusted mortality rates.

What this means is that, “These statistically significant reductions in hot-weather mortality rates suggest that the populace in cities that were weather-sensitive in the 1960s and 1970s have become less impacted by extreme conditions over time because of improved medical care, increased access to air conditioning, and biophysical and infrastructure adaptations.” They note that, “This analysis counters the paradigm of increased heat-related mortality rates in the eastern U.S. predicted to result from future climate warming.”

Etc.

Last Sunday, Al Gore guest-starred as the voice of his own disembodied head in the animated Fox series Futurama. The episode was written by Gores daughter Kristin, and according to the Washington Post (November 2, 2002), “Gores preserved cranium hosts an emergency summit to determine how to combat global warming caused by robot emissions.” Oddly enough, this wouldnt be the most outlandish thing the Gore has said about global warming.

Rises in Precipitation not due to Greenhouse Gases; Apparent increase in Antarctic Icebergs due to Better Detection

by William Yeatman on October 29, 2002

in Science

Rises in Precipitation not due to Greenhouse Gases

Two new studies suggest that the increases in storminess and rainfall that have been measured in the U.S. may be due to causes other than anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. One study in the October 24 issue of Nature looks at natural variability in the northeastern United States and finds that storminess in that region varies over regular cycles.

The study took core samples from 13 small lakes in Vermont and eastern New York with steep surrounding hillslopes, deep water and inflowing streams with sandy deltas. These characteristics allowed the researchers to get a high resolution data set. What they found was that the “frequency of storm related floods in the northeastern United States has varied in regular cycles during the past 13,000 years (13 kyr), with a characteristic period of about 3 kyr.” During that period there were four peaks in storm frequency; 2,600 years, 5,800 years, 9,100 years and 11,900 year ago.

These findings are supported by other independent records from the North Atlantic. In particular, data from central Greenland ice cores correspond very well with the New England data. What this suggests, according to the study, is “control of both by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns,” which in turn correlates “with the characteristic patterns of sea level pressure associated with the Arctic Oscillation.”

The study argues that, “The existence of natural variability in storminess confounds reliable detection of anthropogenic effects.” It also notes that, “During the past ~600 yr, New England storminess appears to have been increasing naturally,” and that if this pattern continues it “would continue to increase for the next ~900 yr.” It concludes, “Because climate synopses compiled from instrumental records cannot distinguish underlying natural increases in storminess from anthropogenic effects, detected increases in contemporary storminess may not be a reliable indicator of human-induced climate change.”

Another study in the Journal of Applied Meteorology does find an anthropogenic component to increased rainfall, but not due to greenhouse gases, but rather due to urbanization. Using satellite data, the researchers found that rainfall rates are enhanced 20 to 40 miles downwind from city centers. Compared to upwind areas, rainfall rates were between 48 and 116 percent greater. The cause is greater heat generated from cities compared to natural landscapes. The rising warm air contributes to thunderstorm development, which then releases its moisture downwind. These two studies may well account for the increased precipitation in the United States over the last century.

Apparent increase in Antarctic Icebergs due to Better Detection

A new study in the current issue of EOS Transactions, a publication of the American Geophysical Union, says that there has been no increase in the number of large Antarctic icebergs as has been reported. “The dramatic increase in the number of large icebergs as recorded by the National Ice Center database does not represent a climatic change,” said Brigham Young University electrical engineering professor David Long. “Our reanalysis suggests that the number of icebergs remained roughly constant from 1978 to the late 1990s.”

Long and his student assistants developed a computer processing technique to increase the sharpness of the images collected from NASA satellites. The satellites employed a “scatterometer” that was used to measure wind speed and direction by bouncing radar beams off the ocean floor. The resolution of the images wasnt good enough to detect icebergs. Longs innovation makes it possible to determine accurately the number of icebergs.

“Dr. Longs analysis shows that the increase is only an apparent increase, and that it is premature to think of any connection between this kind of iceberg (growth) and global warming,” said Douglas MacAyeal, a University of Chicago glaciologist who tracks icebergs. “His research, particularly his amazing ability to detect and track icebergs, is really the best method,” to determine iceberg activity.

COP-8 Declaration under Fire; Russia: Will it or wont it Ratify Kyoto?; What will Canada do next?

by William Yeatman on October 29, 2002

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics, Science

COP-8 Declaration under Fire

A draft “Delhi Declaration on Climate Change,” which is to be adopted at the Eighth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-8) currently underway, is being attacked by both the European Union and the G-77 and China. The declaration was rejected by the EU as “disappointing, unacceptable, and biased.”

“We find the declaration concentrated on adaptation and not on the mitigation of greenhouse gases,” said Thomas Becker, an EU spokesman. “There is no mention of the Kyoto Protocol in the declaration.” The EU also objects to the attempt to link global warming to sustainable development. “To link these issues completely will not be wise from a negotiation point of view,” said Becker. “We are not at all pleased with trying to start such a trend” (BNA Daily Environment Report, October 29, 2002).

The EUs objection to the linkage is probably due to the U.S.s ability to redefine sustainable development in terms of poverty eradication and economic development, which are not compatible with Kyotos objectives. Indeed, the draft recognizes, “that poverty eradication, changing consumption and production patterns, and protecting and managing the natural resource base for economic and social development are overarching objectives of, and essential requirements for, sustainable development.”

 The draft also talks about technological advancement and transfers, capacity building, economic diversification, and strengthening of institutions, things that the U.S. insisted should be the focus of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg. It also states, “Policies and measures to protect the climate system against human-induced change should be appropriate for the specific conditions of each Party and should be integrated with national development programs, taking into account that economic development is essential for adopting measures to address climate change.”

The G-77 and China also expressed disappointment in the document and demanded that it contain a call “to urge ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by all parties that have not done so.” The declaration should also name Africa as the region suffering the most from climate change (Outlook India, October 29, 2002).

What will Canada do next?

Canada cant seem to make up its mind on what to do about Kyoto. On October 24, the federal government released a plan that would require major reductions in carbon dioxide emissions and a 20 percent reduction in energy use by individual Canadians. The plan would reduce emissions by 180 megatons, but fall short of the Kyoto target by 60 megatons. The government hopes this shortfall can be accounted for through a variety of other measures, including claiming credits for natural gas and hydroelectric exports to the U.S.

The plan has met with significant opposition from the provincial governments and industry. On October 28, energy and environment ministers from Canadas 10 provinces and three territories, gathered at a one-day meeting in Nova Scotia, rejected the federal governments plan to implement Kyoto. “All of the provinces have agreed that the federal plan is inadequate, and now we have a new plan to develop a national plan,” said Lorne Taylor, Albertas environment minister. “We have a provincially led process, instead of a federally led process, and thats the way it should have been in the first place.”

The provinces have come up with their own 12-point approach to address climate change. It calls for “full and informed” input from all Canadians, a plan that ensures that no province will bear an unreasonable share of the burden and that respects provincial and territorial jurisdiction. It also says that all “real emissions reductions since 1990 should be recognized, that all credits for forest and agricultural sinks go to the province or territory that owns them, that the plan maintain the competitiveness of Canadian industry, that the federal government should continue to demand credit for “clean energy” exports to the U.S., and that the plan should include incentives to encourage the use of energy sources that emit less carbon (BNA Daily Environment Report, October 29, 2002).

Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrtien has rejected requests from the provinces to meet with them and to delay Kyoto ratification. “My intention as long as something unusual doesnt happen is that we will ratify Kyoto before Christmas,” he told reporters. I think some people only have one goal in mind, and that is to postpone and postpone. It is not what we said to Canadians in the Speech from the Throne. We made a clear commitment that there would be ratification before Christmas.” Chrtien added that he wont be meeting with the premiers and territorial leaders until next year (Toronto Globe and Mail, October 30, 2002).

On the international front, it appears that Canada has backed away from its request to be allowed to count natural gas and hydroelectricity exports to the U.S. towards its Kyoto target. Instead, it is asking for an assessment of the role of trade in less greenhouse gas intensive energy sources in meeting Kyotos objectives. If the new proposal is accepted, Canada would not object to having the old proposal dropped from the agenda.

Russia: Will it or wont it Ratify Kyoto?

Russia has sent mixed signals on whether it will ratify the Kyoto Protocol. At the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, Russia stated that it really had no economic interest in ratifying the protocol, but then reversed that statement a short time later and said that it would ratify by November.

Now Russia says that it could be as long as a year before it ratifies Kyoto. The protocol has been sent to various ministries for an assessment, said Nikolai N. Pomoshnikov, an official with Russias Ministry of Foreign Affair. Ratification would require amending various domestic laws, which would take three months to a year.

Pomoshnikov also said that “long-term impacts [of global warming] are still not clear and so there is a need to understand the implications of climate change.” To that end Russia has announced that it will hold a World Conference on Climate Change in Moscow in Fall 2003 (Outlook India, October 26, 2002).

Was the 20th Century the Warmest in the Past 1000 Years?Re-examining the “Hockey Stick” Data

by William Yeatman on October 17, 2002

in Science

With the November publication of a paper in the English scientific journal, Energy and Environment, Steven McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have called into question one of the most highly publicized scientific papers supporting global warming alarmism. Mann, Bradley, and Hughes used proxy data sets to construct a climate history of the Northern Hemisphere for the past millennium. They concluded that mean temperatures had been relatively stable from 1000 until 1900, but had increased dramatically in the twentieth century. This result was summarized in a graph resembling a hockey stick.

The Third Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change featured the hockey-stick graph and concluded that, “It is likely that the rate and duration of the warming of the 20th century is larger than any other time during the last 1,000 years. The 1990s are likely to have been the warmest decade of the millennium in the Northern Hemisphere, and 1998 is likely to have been the warmest year.”

In “Corrections to the Mann et al (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Series”, McIntyre and McKitrick have gone back to the original data sets used to produce the hockey stick. They found numerous errors in collating and handling the data. After correcting for these errors, they find that the data sets used by Mann et al. yield a graph in which the values in the early fifteenth century are higher than those in the late twentieth. McIntyre and McKitrick will discuss the errors and their corrections in non-technical terms in their Cooler Heads briefing.

A lively debate between the two sets of authors has broken out on the internet. The ongoing controversy may be accessed at http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/trc.html.

Steven McIntyre has worked in the minerals industry for 30 years, the last 16 as an officer or director of several small public mineral exploration companies. He holds a B. Sc. degree in pure mathematics from the University of Toronto and a further degree from Oxford University. His long experience in statistical analysis has taught him the importance of the careful handling and examination of data and his education has provided the necessary tools. Mr. McIntyre is not currently an officer, director, or employee of any listed public company. His research on climate topics has not been supported by any company, but has been carried out entirely for personal interest.

Ross McKitrick received his Ph. D. from the University of British Columbia and is now an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Guelph in Ontario. He is also a Senior Fellow of the Fraser Institute in Vancouver, B.C. He specializes in the application of economic analysis to environmental policy design and climate change. Dr. McKitrick is the author (with Christopher Essex) of Taken by Storm: the Troubled Science, Policy, and Politics of Global Warming (Key Porter Books, 2002), which won Canadas Donner Book Prize in 2002. He has published scholarly articles in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Economic Modeling, the Canadian Journal of Economics, Environmental and Resource Economics, Economics Bulletin, and other journals, as well as commentaries in newspapers and magazines. He has made invited academic presentations in Canada, the U. S., and Europe, as well as professional briefings to the Canadian Parliamentary Finance Committee.

The Meaning of Global Warming Claims; Land Cover Changes Contribute to Climate Change

by William Yeatman on October 15, 2002

in Politics, Science

The Meaning of Global Warming Claims

On September 30, Richard S. Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology at MIT, gave a presentation “On the Meaning of Global Warming Claims” at a congressional briefing sponsored by the Cooler Heads Coalition. Lindzen is one of the leading critics of the claim that increasing atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases have “ominous implications” for mankind or the environment.

He began the presentation with a quick climate history of the last one hundred years and what that history means within the context of this debate. The warming during this period, said Lindzen, is concentrated in two periods, 1919-1940 and 1976-1986. The Earth cooled between these warming periods, and since 1986 there has been no significant warming.

A doubling of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, according to model predictions, would increase the temperature by about 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius. We are already more than halfway towards a doubling of carbon dioxide, which has increased from about 280 parts per million to about 370 ppm. If all the warming in the past century was due to manmade carbon dioxide emissions, said Lindzen, it would mean that the climate is not very sensitive to changes in greenhouse gases and that pronounced warming is unlikely.

Lindzen argued that, “If most current climate models, which predict about 4 degrees C warming for a doubling of CO2, are correct, then man has accounted for 3 – 4 times the observed warming over the past century with some unknown processes of unprecedented magnitude canceling the difference. Predictions for the future assume that these unknown processes will disappear.”

The real problem in the global warming debate, Lindzen said, isnt so much the disagreement between scientists. Indeed, “There really is relatively little disagreement among scientists on a number of basic aspects of this issue.” The problem has to do with how the basic facts are communicated to the public. Scientists who insist on pointing out the “profound disconnect between scientific meaning of common statements and the public interpretation,” are marginalized as “skeptics.”

Rather than trying to solve this communication problem, many scientists, as well as environmental advocacy groups and politicians, have decided it would be easier to exploit it and have become quite adept at doing so. Lindzen argued that probably the best example of how a statement can mean different things to scientists and the public is from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Changes Second Assessment Report. It stated, “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” To a scientist this statement does not imply that there is a problem, yet it was the “smoking gun” for Kyoto.

Lindzen also presented examples of where the scientific consensus is actually the opposite of what is presented in public. It has often been claimed that global warming will lead to increased storminess in the extratropics, but in fact, theory and observational evidence does not support this claim and there is general agreement on this in the scientific community.

Finally, Lindzen noted that although many environmental advocates and politicians claim that Kyoto would “solve” global warming, scientists agree that, “Complete adherence to Kyoto will have no significant impact on climate, regardless of what one believes about climate sensitivity.”

Land Cover Changes Contribute to Climate Change

A NASA funded study, appearing in the August 2002 issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, has found that land use changes may be at least as important as greenhouse gas emissions in accounting for climate change. Growing urban areas, deforestation and reforestation, agriculture and irrigation can have strong influences on regional temperatures, precipitation and large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Different land surfaces have different effects on how the Suns energy is distributed back to the atmosphere. Changes in land cover can significantly affect temperature and other climate variables. “Our work suggests that the impacts of human-caused landcover changes on climate are at least as important, and quite possibly more important than those of carbon dioxide,” said Roger Pielke, Sr., an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University, and lead author of the study. “Through landcover changes over the last 300 years, we may have already altered the climate more than would occur associated with the radiative effect of a doubling of carbon dioxide” (www.sciencedaily.com, October 2, 2002).

Russia Wants to Burn More Coal; EU to Miss Kyoto Target; Solar Power Plant Not So Impressive

by William Yeatman on October 15, 2002

in Kyoto Negotiations, Science

Russia Wants to Burn More Coal

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants his country to make greater use of its coal reserves, which are estimated at 3 trillion tons. But this would make it difficult for Russia to meet its Kyoto target, not to mention that it would eat up all of its available “hot air” emissions credits that many countries are counting on to meet their own targets.

The Kyoto Protocol cannot come into effect unless either the U.S. or Russia ratifies the treaty. Since the U.S. has already said it wont ratify, it is up to Russia to win the day. At the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said that “ratification will take place in the very near future.” But Putins call for exploiting coal puts this commitment into doubt yet again.

Environmentalists are not pleased. “By preparing to burn more coal for its energy needs, Russia aims to free more natural gas for lucrative exports to Western markets,” said Natalia Olefirenko, climate programs coordinator with Greenpeace Russia. “It is a flawed approach, and it amounts to a sell-out of the Russian environment because growing use of coal is likely to adversely affect the countrys ecological balance and cause acid rain” (Asia Times, October 3, 2002).

EU to Miss Kyoto Target

The International Energy Agencys Chief Economist, Fatih Birol, said that the European Union will not be able to meet its Kyoto targets even with new policies to promote the use of renewable energy.

Even if the EU were able to increase the share of renewable energy to produce electricity to 30 percent by 2030, it would still fall short of Kyoto. “Fossil fuels will still dominate,” said Fatih. “Even with these alternative policies [on renewables] we dont reach the Kyoto targets.”

In a business as usual scenario, the EUs emissions of carbon dioxide would rise to 3,146 million tons in 2010 and to 3,829 by 2030, compared to the 1990 baseline of 3,080 tons. With the above-mentioned renewable policies, emission would only be 4.9 percent less than the business as usual scenario in 2010, but still higher than the 1990 baseline. In 2030, emissions would be 19 percent less than business as usual, but still higher overall (Reuters, October 2, 2002).

EU to Chase the Hydrogen Holy Grail

The European Union has announced that it will initiate a major investment project to develop hydrogen power. According to European Commission President Romano Prodi, this effort will be just as important to Europe as the space program was for the United States in the 1960s, but “We expect an [even] better technological fallout,” he said.

The EU plans to spend $2.09 billion from 2003 to 2006 on hydrogen-related renewable energy development. Apparently the EU sees this as a hydrogen race with the U.S. Earlier this year the Bush administration launched the Freedom Car project, a fuel cell research effort, and has asked Congress to provide $150 million in funding.

But there is little reason to believe that such efforts will yield dividends. As noted by the Wall Street Journal (October 16, 2002), “Meanwhile, for all the hope surrounding hydrogen, it is still years, if not decades, away from making significant inroads into the power and transport markets, which currently account for most of the worlds oil and gas use.” Hydrogen is much more expensive than traditional fuels and would require massive infrastructure investments.

What the Journal fails to mention is that hydrogen is not an energy source, but merely a way to store and transport energy. That is due to the fact that there are no free standing sources of hydrogen. It must be extracted from water or other sources, which requires energy. It then must be re-oxidized to extract the energy. Energy is lost throughout the process, so that when all is said and done, less energy is produced than was used to get the hydrogen in the first place. The only way to overcome that is to circumvent the laws of thermodynamics.

Solar Power Plant Not So Impressive

Arizona Public Service Co. has begun construction on what will become one of the largest solar power plants in the world and could supply electricity for up to 3,000 homes. Solar power advocates are “oohing” and “aahing” over the power plant, but even this solar power behemoth is not that impressive.

Herb Hayden, director of APSs solar energy program, acknowledges that the biggest obstacle for solar power is that it costs twice as much as electricity produced from conventional fuels, but he thinks the project will break even. APS had been able to cover most of its costs on other solar projects by selling the power at a premium through its Solar Partners Program. Participating customersabout 3,000pay a monthly premium (read donation) for 15-kilowatt-hour blocks of renewable power. “It doesnt cover the costs, but it shows the product has value,” Hayden said.

The power plant, which will eventually produce 5.5 MW of electricity, will occupy 50 acres near the airport in Prescott, Ariz. By comparison, a small-to-midsize natural gas power plant that produces 250 MW of electricity occupies only a few acres. To equal that output using solar technology would require the use of about 2,300 acres.

APS currently has seven other solar power projects which produces a total of 1.7 MW of electricity and has committed to spending $12 million a year on solar power through 2004. A large part of the cost will be covered by surcharges on electricity bills, from 35 cents per month for residential customers to $39 per month for industrial customers. The surcharge raises about $20 million per year.

Hayden may be forgiven his somewhat misguided optimism since his company has little choice in the matter. The Arizona Corporation Commission approved in 2000 the Environmental Portfolio Standard, which forces investor-owned utilities to generate at least 1 percent of the electricity they sell from renewables. APS must generate 25 MW of electricity from renewable resources. They might as well smile about it.

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