Science

Mounting Evidence Points to Sun

The sun continues to get increasing attention and study as scientists struggle to determine the causes behind climate change. One of the top scientists studying the suns influence on the climate is Dr. Sallie Baliunas, an astrophysicist with the George C. Marshall Institute and deputy director of Mount Wilson Observatory. In an article in the Wall Street Journal (August 5, 1999), Dr. Baliunas discusses the suns role in global warming.

Baliunas points out that computer models show that the climate should have risen by about 1 degree C over the last 100 years, but that the actual temperature rise has been only half that amount. Most of the rise occurred prior to 1940, but 80 percent of the manmade carbon dioxide was emitted into the air after 1940, making the carbon dioxide-global warming link tenuous at best.

A better explanation for the observed warming is changes in the suns brightness. The sun experiences magnetic cycles that last 22 years, during which the sun reaches peak brightness and then swings back to a dimmer state. Baliunas also points out that, “The length of the magnetic cycle is closely related to its amplitude; thus the sun should be brightest when the sunspot cycle is short.”

According to Baliunas, “Changes in the length of the magnetic cycle and in Northern Hemisphere land temperatures are closely correlated over three centuries.” She also argues that if the data are correct, “Changes in the sunspot cycle would explain average temperature change of about 0.5 degrees C in the past 100 years.”

Finally, Baliunas explains that the highly accurate satellite temperature data fail to show any warming over the last 20 years. Some scientists claim that the global warming that should have occurred, according to climate model forecasts, is being offset by industrial emissions of aerosols which cool the climate. But, says Baliunas, nearly all aerosols are emitted in the Northern Hemisphere, “leaving the Southern Hemispheres air free to rise with increasing carbon dioxide.” But so far there has been no temperature increase in the Southern Hemisphere.

Baliunas concludes that, “Introducing the suns impact in the models has shown that the human effects on temperature are much smaller than first projected, and perhaps insignificant compared with natural temperature changes.” A transcript of Dr. Baliunass Cooler Heads science briefing can be found at www.cei.org.

Chaotic Weather Sans Global Warming

Much has been made of severe weather phenomena of late. Anything that falls outside the realm of pleasant, benign weather is blamed on global warming. A recent news story on NBC News at Sunrise (August 12, 1999) even raised the possibility that the tornado that hit Salt Lake City was linked to climate change.

“With each of the freak and often deadly weather events this year the question keeps coming up, is our climate changing permanently in frightening ways?” asked reporter Robert Bazell. “Almost every weather scientist will say that no single event can be tied to overall climate change,” said Bazell. “But the earth is getting warmer, about one degree warmer since the beginning of the century.”

And what does this prove? Absolutely nothing! First, U.S. temperatures have remained flat over the last 80 years. Blaming weather events in the U.S. on warming on a global scale is just plain silly. Second, even if the “freak” weather events in the U.S. could be linked to higher global temperatures, that wouldnt explain this summers weather events. Summer global temperatures this year have been below normal, according to satellite temperature measurements.

Third, highlighting record-breaking weather events exhibits a profound ignorance of statistics. Extreme weather is a statistical certainty. As pointed out on a global warming website at users.erols.com/dhoyt1/annex12.htm, “The probability of breaking a weather record is equal to 1/n where n is the number of years for which measurements exist.” This simple equation means that on an average day 2 million square miles of the earths surface will experience weather that breaks a 100-year-old record.

Finally, at a convention of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics in Birmingham, England, climate modelers Barrie Hunt and Anthony Hirst with the Mebourne-based Division of Atmospheric Research of Australias national research organization, revealed the results of a new climate model.

What they found was that even with stable CO2 levels the climate system is very chaotic. “Fifty percent of the globe seems to have a 10-year drying or wetting sequence within a 1000-year period,” said Hunt. As reported in the New Scientist (August 7, 1999), the model shows that “Some regions could suddenly be seared by intense heat and drought, or inundated by rain, for the best part of 30 years.”

So Whats Causing this Summers High Temperatures and Drought?

This years summer weather has been a major topic of discussion in the national press. Heat waves and drought conditions have certainly been unpleasant this year, but they are hardly the stuff of apocalyptic dimensions, and it certainly isnt because of global warming. According to U.S. News & World Report (August 9, 1999), “Those who deal with the global climate seem more certain that the summer heat and even the years drought, are not evidence of a profound change” in the climate system.

“This summer, weve had more than our fair share of heat waves,” says Ed OLenic, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Other than “a persistent pattern of high pressure stuck over the middle part of the country,” scientists arent sure of the cause. “The fact that its hot for a week has nothing at all to do with global warming, which would be measured over decades, not days,” says National Weather Service meteorologist Richard Tinker.

The article states, “The total U.S. land area currently under drought is not in itself unusual; every year, about 10 to 15 percent of the country faces extremely dry conditions.” Its the pattern of drought that is unusual. The Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states almost never experiences severe drought conditions. Its shaping up to be the driest year in 100 years for those states.

La Nia is believed to be at least partially responsible. Even though La Nia usually causes drought in the Southeast rather than the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, this year could be an exception. “We dont have enough long-term data on either El Nio or La Nia,” says OLenic. “Whats happening this summer may simply be a natural variation weve never seen before.”

Another article from the Environmental News Network (August 11, 1999) quotes Charles H.V. Ebert a professor at the State University at Buffalo, as saying that, “No, its (the drought) not global warming That could be occurring as well, of course, but based on 100,000 years of geological evidence, we just seem to be going through a warm phase of our climatology. He also argued that “Media attention combined with our poor memories of past weather, tend to generate unjustified alarm for our climatic future (www.enn.com/news).

Abrupt Climate Change

Several studies have established that the Earths climatic history is peppered with sudden, rapid, and natural climate changes. A new study in Nature (July 29,1999) again shows that there were two such episodes close together between 8 and 10 thousand years ago.

The researchers analyzed sediment cores from the bottom of Deep Lake in Minnesota and found further confirmation of a rapid worldwide cooling that occurred 8,200 years ago. Evidence of this cooling period has also been found in Greenland ice core samples and other places throughout the world. Most scientists believe that this cooling event was caused by the collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet that drained large glacial lakes into the North Atlantic Ocean, altering the thermohaline circulation.

Some news reports have claimed that this study warns of a coming ice age as a result of global warming. A letter to the editor by Konrad Gajewski, a geography professor at the University of Ottawa, states that such a conclusion is unwarranted. Dr. Gajewski pointed out that the Laurentide Ice Sheet disappeared 6,000 years ago. “There is currently no comparable ice sheet in the Arctic, so a similar cooling cannot occur in the near or distant future,” said Gajewski. “Although the event of 8,200 years ago is interesting for historians of climate, it has little relevance to our understanding of future climate conditions” (Ottawa Citizen, July 29, 1999).

North American Carbon Sink: Is it there?

Last year a study published by Science (October 18, 1998) found that North America absorbs more carbon dioxide than it emits. A new study in Science (July 23, 1999) argues that this is not the case. The researchers from Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts developed a model of carbon emissions and sequestration from the year 1700 in which they calculated the land use changes from agriculture, forestry and other factors.

Their model showed that from 1700 to 1945 North America was a net carbon emitter due to land use practices. After 1945, due to fire suppression and other changes in land use management, there has been an absorption of about 2.2 petagrams of carbon. The rate of sequestration peeked from 1960 to 1980 and is now in decline, according to the study. This finding differs greatly with the previous finding that North America is absorbing carbon dioxide to the tune of 1.7 petagrams per year.

Dr. Fan, the lead author of last years study, defends his groups study, however. He has argued that his findings are based in part on atmospheric samples and not just on models (Electricity Daily, August 3, 1999). Fans group used carbon dioxide levels from 63 ocean-sampling stations. They took into account ocean uptake and wind currents and found that as air currents move from west to east across North America, there is a slight decrease in carbon dioxide concentrations. The Woods Hole researchers admit that their model does not take into account soil sequestration.

Temperature Update

According to the satellite temperature data, this summers global temperature is 1.6 degrees F cooler than last year. The month of June in the Southern Hemisphere is the third coolest month since the satellite record began in 1979. The two cooler months were March 1993 in the aftermath of the Mount Pinatubo eruption and September 1984. See www.vision.net.au/~daly/.

Etc.

• The flow of doomsday articles and op-eds about global warming continues unabated, despite the growing evidence that global warming will be benign and maybe even beneficial. Time magazine (August 9, 1999) laments that even though “a great many scientists believe that by continuing to pump greenhouse gases in to the atmosphere, humans are forcing drastic climate changeCongress seems determinedly indifferent.”

An article in The Guardian (London, July 29, 1999), however, wins the prize for overblown anguish. The author, George Monbiot, wails that “the global meltdown has begun. Long predicted and long denied, the effects of climate change are arriving faster than even the gloomiest prophets expected.” He goes on to say, “climate change is perhaps the gravest calamity our species has ever encountered. Its impact dwarfs that of any war, any plague, any famine we have confronted so far. It makes genocide and ethnic cleansing look like side shows at the circus of human suffering. A car is now more dangerous than a gun; flying across the Atlantic is as unacceptable, in terms of its impact on human well-being, as child abuse. The rich are at play in the worlds killing fields.”

Crisp as french fries? Worse than genocide or ethnic cleansing? Come on! Were talking about a 3.5 degrees warming at most. If global warming does occur it will take place almost entirely in the cold regions of the earth. The warm regions of the world will experience almost no change.

CO₂ Estimates Adjusted Downward

Scientists have been basing their global warming predictions on the assumption that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will accelerate. Now they have discovered that the growth rate has declined by about 25 percent since 1980, which throws a kink into their projections. This has occurred even though CO2 emissions continue to increase.

Scientists have been predicting a doubling of atmospheric CO2 by 2050, but current trends suggest a doubling sometime after 2100. According to James Hansen, head of NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies, this new revelation shows that “our understanding of greenhouse gases is not all that good.” Hansen also said, “we really have to understand the cycles of these greenhouse gases if were going to reliably forecast whats going to happen in the next century” (The Christian Science Monitor, July 15, 1999).

Scientists have shown under the old assumptions about CO2 accumulation rates that we can wait 10 years before we do anything about global warming without any adverse effects. Now that CO2 is not accumulating as rapidly as thought, wouldnt it make sense to wait before we commit ourselves to drastic action? A few more years may give scientists enough time to determine if global warming is truly a threat.

Japans Odd Temperature Record

A new report by the Greening Earth Society (GES) reveals the difficulties of interpreting temperature data. Robert C. Balling, Jr., Director of the Laboratory of Climatology at Arizona State University, analyzed the temperature data from Japan that he obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The data, which begins in 1878, shows a curious pattern. From 1878 to 1947, the IPCC data shows a slight and statistically insignificant cooling of 0.18 degrees C. It also shows a statistically insignificant cooling of 0.09 degrees C from 1948 to 1998. Yet over the entire 121 year record, Japan warmed by 1.02 degrees C.

This is possible because all of the warming took place in one year, 1947 to 1948. Balling argues that “the temperature records from Kyoto and Japan can be interpreted a hundred different ways. One could fairly argue (a) Japan has warmed significantly over the past century, (b) Japan has warmed quickly in the most recent two decades, (c) 1998 is the warmest year on record for Japan, and (d) the greatest warming is occurring at night in the winter. All of these findings are broadly consistent with expectations from climate model simulations for increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. From this perspective, the temperature record from Japan is another reason to support the Kyoto Protocol.”

On the other hand, the same temperature record could be used to argue that there is no justification for supporting the Kyoto Protocol since “without that jump, there is no warming in Japan.” Balling concludes, “in discussing the climate shortcomings of the Kyoto Protocol, one need look no farther than Japan to begin to see reasons many folks are skeptical about the scientific basis for the agreement. If the temperature record from Japan represents the type of facts the Protocol is built upon, its time to say sayonara to Kyoto.” The report can be found at www.greeningearthsociety.org.

Announcements

• The Climate Change Subcommittee of the Environmental Protection Agencys Clean Air Act Advisory Committee is holding a meeting to discuss policy issues with implementation of the Clean Air Act of 1990. The meeting will be held at the Marriott at Metro Center 775 12^th Street NW, Washington, DC, July 26, 1999 at 1:00 p.m. Contact Lawrence W. Roffee at (202) 272-5434, ext. 14 for more information.
  
• The American Enterprise Institute is sponsoring a conference, The Greening of Global Warming, featuring Robert Mendelsohn of Yale University. Mendelsohn claims that global warming will not be as harmful as previously claimed. The conference will be held on July 26 at 1150 17^th Street, NW, 12^th floor, Washington, D.C. Registration begins at 1:45 p.m. Contact Amy Wendholt at (202) 862-5847 for more information.

A Complete Temperature Record

Long term, continuous and uncorrupted temperature records are difficult to find. One such record does exist at an agricultural experiment station, known as Rothamsted Experimental Station, in southeastern England. The station has been taking temperature readings every day at 9 a.m. since 1878 using thermometers very similar to the ones we use today. The 121-year record is continuous with no missing data and the landscape has remained largely agricultural over the entire period.

The data, analyzed by Robert Balling, director of the Office of Climatology at Arizona State University, shows rising temperatures from 1878 to 1950 and then cooling until the 1980s. The last decade, says Balling, “has been dominated by high temperatures. The total record shows a warming trend of 0.71 degrees C.”

Balling also found that “winter warming of minimum temperatures accounts for more than 40 percent of all warming observed at Rothamsted; summer maximum temperatures account for only 10 percent of the warming,” meaning that most of the warming occurs at night and in winter. Also, 92.5 percent of the warming in the record occurred before 1950.

Scientists at the station have also collected rainfall data during the same period and also began collecting data on sunshine and cloud cover in 1915. These records show that both sunshine and rainfall have increased slightly during the last 84 years. Balling concludes that as a result of these changes together with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations that “crops there now perform better than their ancestors in the days of Lawes and Gilbert (founders of the station)” (World Climate Report, July 5, 1999).

Global Warming Destroys Coral Reefs?

A new report by Greenpeace claims that global warming will destroy the worlds great coral reefs by 2100 if something isnt done to stop it. The report states that “Coral reefs could be eliminated from most areas of the world by 2100,” and that even the Great Barrier Reef could be dead within 30 years. The report also claims that even if measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken it may still take 500 years for the reefs to recover (www.greenpeace.org).

The New Scientist (July 3, 1999) reports a different mechanism for the ill health of coral reefs. Dick Barber of Duke University says that drought in the Sahel region of Africa has increased atmospheric dust fivefold. The dust carries viruses, bacteria, and fungi that can kill coral. The dust also carries iron that stimulates the growth of algae that can smother reefs. Barber does not claim, however that his theory contradicts the theory that global warming is killing reefs. He argues that “warming leaves the coral more vulnerable to disease.”

Etc.

• Ross Gelbspan, the author of The Heat is On now has an internet sight called The Heat is Online (www.heatisonline.org) to promote his global warming views. The website has a multimedia presentation, and a 6,000-word overview, which claims that “this new era of climate change could well be the most profound threat ever facing humanity.” The website also “catalogues the last four years of increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events all over the world,” as well as provides short synopses of scientific findings and offers solutions. Finally, the site “documents a pervasive and very successful industry campaign of deception and disinformation.”

Ozone Layer Affected by Sun

The thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica is due to the sun and not people, according to research by Yang Xuexiang, a professor of geological sciences at Changchun University of Technology in China. Yang believes the changes are caused by solar wind, a current of high-energy particles, rather than the use of CFCs. His research was published in the May Chinese edition of Scientific American.

Yang argues that ozone depletion resulted from solar wind making the atmosphere at the South Pole thinner, from volcanic eruptions in the southern hemisphere, and from solar high-energy particle currents. The conventional wisdom is that ozone depletion is caused by the use of freon by man. Yang points out that freon use is concentrated in the northern hemisphere, not over the South Pole (AFP, June 20,1999).

High Heat, Low Carbon

The hypothesis that carbon dioxide levels exert a significant influence on the Earths climate is being rethought. We reported in the last issue of Cooler Heads that researchers have found that 15 million years ago the temperature was significantly warmer than it is today, and yet atmospheric CO2 levels were lower. A new study in Science (June 11, 1999) finds that 48 million years ago, in the Eocene era, temperatures were 5 degrees C warmer than now but that CO2 levels were not significantly different.

“Some authors,” says the study, “have suggested that middle Eocene CO2 was two to six times as high as the preindustrial level of 280 parts per million, whereas others have suggested values similar to that concentration or only slightly higher.” The researchers studied ancient marine sentiments and found that CO2 concentrations were between 180 ppm to 550 ppm, the most likely value being 385 ppm. The authors conclude that either the climate system is very sensitive to small changes in CO2 or that something else caused warmer temperatures.

These studies have scientists rethinking the carbon/warming link. “We may have to think harder about whats driving the [climate] system on these long time scales,” says paleoclimatologist Thomas Cowley of Texas A&M University. “It could be the whole carbon dioxide paradigm is crumbling.” Paleo-oceanographer Edward Boyle of MIT said these studies suggest that “we need to reconsider the prevailing dogma.” These scientists argue that CO2 is still a powerful source for short-term climate changes. But on very long scales many other factors may explain climate change.

U.S. Droughts Lasted for Decades

Scientists who study the Earths past climate are learning that change is the norm and rapid change is not uncommon. Research carried out in North Dakota has discovered severe and long lasting droughts in the plains of the U.S. during the last 12,000 years. Bison bones found at the bottom of Spiritwood lake suggest a rapid onslought of drought that drew down water levels very rapidly. “The draw-down in this period was ferocious, as much as 20 feet,” according to Allan Ashworth a geologist at North Dakota State University.

With the recession of the glaciers, the Red River Valley was cool and wet and was covered by a spruce forest. “Then bang it goes into the prairies,” said Ashworth. “The implication is that the regional climate begins to be much drier right around 8,000 years ago. Ever since then, weve been into prairie.” Ashworth says that we dont yet understand why “the climate has become much more oscillatory between dry and wet phases.” Ashworth explains that “were only just starting to really define some of these patterns, or refining them so we can really start talking about them with enough confidence” (The Associated Press, June 14, 1999).

Etc.

• From the Science and Environmental Policy Project (www.sepp.org): “Turning to smog-avoiding nuclear power, complaints by enviros about deceptive ads have led the Better Business Bureau to get the Federal Trade Commission to investigate. What’s all the fuss about? It seems that Nuclear Energy Institute ads “falsely” claim that reactors make power without emitting greenhouse gases. Apparently, the NEI didn’t mention that the uranium fuel was made using electricity from coal plants. So what about the wind turbines that pack 150,000 pounds of steel, concrete, and fiberglass per turbine? How about that for “embedded carbon”?
  
• A new survey by the American Geophysical Union finds that Americans are less concerned than ever about global warming. “The more we talk about warming,” says the study’s director, John Immerwahr, “the [more the] public’s concern goes down.” (Time, June 21, 1999).

High Temperatures with Low CO₂

Scientists are still uncertain about the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on the earths temperature, although it is generally thought that higher concentrations of CO₂ will increase global temperatures and vice versa. Recent studies have cast doubt on that hypothesis, however. In the March 12 issue of Science researchers showed, using ice core samples, that during three deglaciations temperature rises occurred before higher CO₂ levels.

A new study published in Paleoceanography (June 1999) finds that CO₂ concentrations were very low during the Miocene Climatic Optimum of about 14.5-17 million years ago, a period that experienced extremely high global temperatures that were about 6 degrees C higher than present.

It has been thought that the high Miocene temperatures were caused by a combination of high CO₂ levels and changes in the ocean. But the new study presents evidence that the CO₂ levels were about 180-290 parts per million by volume, compared to the current level of 360 ppmv. The low levels of CO₂ persisted throughout the entire Climatic Optimum and began to rise in concert with a global cooling and expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that occurred at about 12.5-14 million years ago (Nature, May 27, 1999).

Solar Magnetism and Global Warming

Evidence that the Sun plays a major role in climate change continues to mount, casting doubt on the CO₂-global warming link. A new study in Nature (June 3, 1999) has found that the Suns magnetism has increased dramatically over the last one hundred years. The researchers, according to a commentary article in the same issue, “use records of geomagnetic activity, monitored in England and Australia since the nineteenth century, to show that the weak general magnetic field on the Sun has more than doubled over the past 100 years.”

The researchers note that the solar wind “drags some magnetic flux out of the Sun to fill the heliosphere with a weak interplanetary magnetic field.” These fields block cosmic rays that contain charged ion particles that contribute to the formation of ice crystals and water drops in the atmosphere, increasing cloud cover. A reduction in cosmic ray influence reduces cloud cover, allowing more sunlight to reach the earth.

The Suns general magnetism is also related to its brightness, although this is not well understood. Moreover, sunspots generate strong magnetic fields that also correspond to greater solar luminosity. These two types of magnetic fields appear to have different sources, but, “it is curious that the general level of both fields has increased by about the same degree over the last 100 years, suggesting some hidden commonality.” These phenomena lead to a more vigorous Sun that is about 0.1 percent brighter.

The increase of solar magnetism has been about 131 percent over the last 91 years. From 1964 to 1996 the Suns magnetism has increase by 41 percent. This brightening has occurred during the same time as the measured surface warming experienced on Earth.

Alaska Entering a Cold Spell 

Warmer temperatures in Alaska over the last few years have been cited as evidence of global warming. But as with other types of anecdotal evidence no research has linked Alaskas warming spell with greenhouse gases. Now scientists believe that the warming period is a result of a natural 25-year cycle that causes climatic conditions in Alaska to swing back and forth between cold and warm periods.

The recurring weather cycle is called the Pacific (inter) Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and scientists believe that Alaska has “just finished roughly 25 years of good fishing, warmer ocean temperatures, early ice pack melt-offs and fairly mild winters.” Now Alaskans can “look forward to about 25 years of gray summers, harsh winters, poor fish returns and a lingering ice pack.” In fact, it has already begun. Salmon fishing in Bristol Bay has deteriorated significantly in the last two years, water temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska have cooled this year and the melting of the Arctic ice pack is long overdue. Similar conditions existed in the 1960s with very harsh winters.

According to scientists at the University of Washingtons Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Oceans, the 25-year pattern can be traced back 300 years. The PDO also influences the pattern of salmon returns. When salmon returns are high in Alaska they are low in Washington and Oregon, and vice versa. In 1915, for example, “Bristol Bay salmon returns were abysmal when Washington and Oregon had one of the best salmon fishing years in history,” and “in 1939, the Bristol Bay catch was regarded as one of the greatest in history, while Washington and Oregon recorded one of the worst” (Anchorage Daily News, June 7, 1999).

Etc.

• On May 26 Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D- Cal.) submitted an amendment to the House Science Committee that is virtually identical to the Knollenberg Amendment that prohibited federal agencies from implementing the Kyoto Protocol prior to Senate ratification.

A certain amount of confusion surrounds the amendment, however. Lofgren, a proponent of the Kyoto Protocol, states in a press release that, “The House and Senate have already agreed to adhere to the Kyoto language. Yet as originally drafted, H.R. 1743 would have undercut that commitment. My amendment simply reiterates that commitment, allowing the EPA to continue to work to limit greenhouse gases.”

Lofgren also argues that, “we have agreed to reduce emissions in line with the Protocol. Such action is vital no only for the health of the world environment, but also to make us ready to ratify the Protocol if and when developing countries meet emissions standards.”

Announcements

• The Cooler Heads is sponsoring an economics briefing for congressional staff and media on June 18. The briefing will feature Robert Bradley, director of the Institute for Energy Research in Houston, Texas. Mr. Bradley will discuss “The Economic and Environmental Transformation of Fossil Fuels.” It will be held at the Dirksen Senate Office Building, room 366, at 12:00 noon.

Satellite Data Contradicts Gov. Bush, Shows Cooling Trend

After a hot 1998 due to El Nio, 1999 seems to be returning global temperatures, as measured by satellites, to their previous downward trend. According to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Alabamas Earth System Science Laboratory, the advent of La Nia, the cool phase of El Nio, is quite obvious in the record. “Compared to seasonal norms, April 1998 was the hottest month in more than 20 years,” Christy said. “But this April it was quite cool in the tropics.”

Christy also points out that from April 1998 to March 1999 the global average temperature dropped almost nine-tenths of a degree Celsius (about 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit). The Northern Hemisphere in April 1999 was slightly warmer than the 20-year average while the Southern Hemisphere was slightly cooler. Overall, April was 0.01 degrees Celsius cooler than normal.

Trees Do Better With More CO₂

Hundreds of studies and experiments have confirmed that the earths plant life flourishes in a carbon dioxide rich environment. The latest study, appearing in Science (May 14, 1999), confirms these findings. In the latest experiment researchers installed a gas delivery system in a 13-year-old loblolly pine plantation. The system increases CO₂ concentrations on 30-meter diameter plots within the continuous forest.

The researchers argue that currently “trees that use the C₃ mechanism of photosynthesis are carbon-limited at the current atmospheric CO₂ concentrations,” and that “the stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated CO₂ may increase the capacity of forests to store carbon in wood and soil organic matter.”

The researchers found during the two years of the experiment that the diameters of the trees exposed to concentrations of CO₂ double ambient levels, increased by about 26 percent relative to the control trees. CO₂ enrichment also increased litterfall and fine root increment. “Such an increase in forest net primary production globally would fix about 50 percent of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide projected to be released into the atmosphere on the year 2050.”

New Book Looks at Extreme Weather and Civilization

We have argued in these pages that the ability to adapt to changes in climate is the greatest protection against the dangers of catastrophic events. This view is generally confirmed in a new book titled Floods, Famines and Emperors: El Nio and the Fate of Civilizations. The author, Brian Fagan, anthropology professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara, looks at the havoc El Nio has wreaked upon civilizations over thousands of years, and claims that it contributed to the downfall of civilizations from Egypts Old Kingdom to the classic Maya culture on the American continent.

An important message of the book, according to reviewer David Lashkin, is that “catastrophically fluctuating weather patterns are a natural characteristic of Earths atmosphere, and civilizations unable to adapt to these violent meteorological swings have been destroyed in the past and will be destroyed in the future.” Two main determinants of whether a civilization survives climatic change is “carrying capacity” and “the flexibility of their social structures and customs.” Rigid, “top-heavy” societies are more vulnerable to catastrophe than dynamic societies (The Washington Post, May 20, 1999).

Etc.

• The U.S. delegation to the International Whaling Convention called global warming “the greatest threat” to whales. The delegation is calling for research into the effects of global warming on whales’ food supplies. It has also warned that global warming could cause melting of the polar ice caps, bringing more ships into contact with whales and interfering with their habitats.
  

• So-called renewable energy seems to be getting less popular as the energy of choice among certain factions within the Green community. Recently the National Trust in England has “pledged to fight green energy schemes such as wind farms where it judges them unacceptable intrusions into Britains remaining wild places,” according to The Guardian (May 20, 1999).
  
• Apparently Maurice Strong, known for his gentlemanly manner, completely lost it when he learned that a fellow oil man Bob Peterson, head of Imperial Oil, said that compliance with the Kyoto Protocol would devastate Canadas economy. Strong, a former energy CEO himself, and currently the United Nations special adviser on the environment accused Peterson of being “behind the times” and a “dinosaur.”

He also said that “Mr. Peterson had his counterparts in earlier days when the Petersons of that day were against abolishing child labour, they were against sanitation, they were against abolishing slavery.” The National Post (May 21, 1999) commented that “Mr. Stongs intemperate outburst may be tantamount to an admission that his perverse crusade to save the planet by destroying the global economy is grinding to a halt.”

Tornadoes not Linked to Global Warming

Like night follows day, global warming activists will blame the recent killer tornadoes in the Midwest on global warming. Scientists, however, dont see such a link. According to Eugene Takle, a professor of atmospheric science at Iowa State University, “We havent seen an increase (in tornadoes) as yet.” There has been “a lot more property damage,” says Takle. “Many of the deadliest tornado years on record occurred in the 1950s and 1960s,” according to the Kansas City Star (May 5, 1999). “In 1953, for example, 150 persons died in Texas in May; on May 25, 1955, 81 died in Kansas.”

The key to preventing tornado deaths and property damage is “building better structures; locating structures out of areas prone to disaster; and acting on improved storm warnings.”

Is Indias Heat Wave More Evidence of Global Warming?

At least one scientist, Dr. M. Lal from the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology, is claiming that Indias current heat wave “is a signal to global warming.” He claims that last year was the hottest in the century in India and he predicts it will continue this year. S.C. Gupta, Director of Delhi Meteorological Office says that this is no different than past heat waves. Gupta argues that other severe heat waves have occurred in the past, such as the heat waves in 1941, 1958, 1973, and 1994.

According to Gupta, India always experiences extraordinarily high temperatures this time of year. Those temperatures are moderated, however, by western disturbances low pressure weather patterns that originate in the Mediterranean and move across Pakistan and into India that bring relief. Heat waves occur when these western disturbances are fewer in frequency. That is what has occurred this year, says Gupta. This year is nothing unusual (The Hindu, May 4, 1999).

Etc.

• The World Resources Institute has announced that it will reduce its emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels by October 2001 in accordance with the U.S. target under the Kyoto Protocol. It also pledges to cut emissions to zero or better by 2005. It is not yet clear whether these actions will have a positive or negative impact on the broader U.S. economy.
  
• A prominent corporate executive has confessed his ecological sins and denounced his own company. Ray Anderson, CEO of Interface, a manufacturer of carpet tile, and co-chair of the Presidents Council on Sustainable Development, told a gathering of industry CEOs that “I had a revelation about what industry is doing to our planet. I stood convicted as a plunderer of the earth.” He also said, “In the future people like me will go to jail” (Fortune, May 24, 1999).
  
• Now that science has confirmed that parasites, not man, are responsible for deformed frogs (New York Times, April 30, 1999), get ready for the next manmade frog catastrophe. The culprit? You guessed it, manmade global warming. Already a major newspaper has claimed that global warming is causing drier conditions in Costa Rica, threatening frogs with extinction (Washington Post, April 15, 1999).

Announcements

• The Cooler Heads is sponsoring a science briefing for congressional staff and media on May 28. The briefing will feature Dave Malmquist of the Bermuda Biological Station for Research, who will discuss “Climate Change and Sea Level Rise.” More details to come.
  
• The transcript from the latest Cooler Heads science briefing for congressional staff and media is now available on the internet at www.cei.org. The presentation by Dr. Keith Idso is entitled, The Ecological Benefits of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels. Other briefing transcripts are also available on the website.

Fingerprints Vanish in Analysis of 11 Climate Models

Global warming predictions are based on detection studies that use Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) to find a human fingerprint in the climate system. Climate modelers attempt to imitate the natural variations of the climate system and then add manmade greenhouse gases to see how global temperatures respond.

A new study in the Journal of Climate (February 1999) throws doubt on the validity of these types of studies. According to the author Tim Barnett, of the Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, modelers “have taken their estimates of natural variability from long control runs of CGCMs. This would be a valid procedure if the internally generated variability in the models was a realistic estimate of natural variability. Whether this is true or not is at the moment uncertain.”

Barnett sets out to see if model variability is realistic by comparing natural climate variability to the temperature variability in 11 different models, run for 100 model years. He finds that “differences of a factor of 2 or more are common for even the best behaved models.” He also states that “there is no model that consistently agrees well with the observations.”

Even more damning is the finding that it is difficult to distinguish “natural” model runs from those with anthropogenic forcing. Barnetts analysis shows that “CGCMs can, without any anthropogenic forcing, produce patterns that resemble those expected from anthropogenic causes. This, in turn, will make it more difficult to apply a fingerprint strategy to detect anthropogenic signal since the natural variability estimated from CGCMs and used in the detection scheme looks like the anthropogenic signal itself.”

Continental U.S. Getting Cooler

Green activists have been have been trying to convince the American public that global warming is underway by highlighting warmer temperatures and remaining silent when temperatures are on the cooler side. Much has been done to give the impression that things are heating up. A new study conducted by researchers at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has found that the continental United States has become cooler, one-thirtieth of a degree per decade, since 1941, although the finding is probably not statistically significant.

The study also finds that nearly the entire U.S. has become significantly wetter, by nine-tenths of an inch more rainfall per decade since 1966. Each month has become wetter over the same period, with the fall becoming much wetter. The study confirms what has been found by several past studies, but it also contradicts others. According to David Easterling, principal scientists at the National Climatic Data Center, an NCDC study shows a cooling only in the Southeast United States. The NCDC study also covers a longer time span going back to 1900.

But, according to Rich Tinker, a co-author of the CPC study, argues that his research has been used by the CPC to devise “this years winter and spring predictions. They have been the most accurate on record (Omaha World-Herald, April 20, 1999).”

Etc.

• According to AAP Newsfeed (April 22, 1999), “renowned U.S. scientist on climate change (weve never heard of him, Eds.),” Professor Richard Turco called for global environmental regulations in a speech delivered on April 22. Turco argued that technology is out of control saying that “it is growing at such a pace, we have a problem in maintaining control over itwe either have to evolve with the technology or were going to be simply overtaken and swamped by it.”

The solution to the problem, according to Turco is to “develop global regulations and global environmental laws to control technology and its implementation.”

• John Wellner with the Toronto Environmental Alliance describes his Earth Day experiences in the April 27, 1999 issue of The Toronto Star. Wellner and his colleagues decided to hand out “informative traffic tickets” to cars entering the Toronto City Hall parking garage.” They greeted each car with a friendly “Happy Earth Day!”

Wellner was appalled at the reception he received. “Some drivers were friendly, albeit a little sheepish, but the majority were far from civil. Non-traditional environmental greetings like, Get out of my way! usually with a traditional expletive and, sometimes, succinctly, just the expletive were plentifulI guess they were late for their morning coffee, or something.”

Heres an alternative explanation. Maybe people are sick and tired of sanctimonious environmentalists telling them how to live their lives.

Announcements

• The Cooler Heads is sponsoring a science briefing for congressional staff and media on May 28. The briefing will feature Dave Malmquist of the Bermuda Biological Station for Research, who will discuss “Climate Change and Sea Level Rise.” Further details will be forthcoming.