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Antarctic Ice Sheet not in Danger from Global Warming; New Findings Lead to New Predictions; No Flooding Trends in the U.S.

by William Yeatman on January 7, 2003

in Science

Antarctic Ice Sheet not in Danger from Global Warming

Fears that the Western Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) is experiencing accelerated declines due to global warming are unfounded, according to a new study in the Jan. 3 issue of Science. A team of scientists, led by John O. Stone with the Quaternary Research Center and Department of Earth and Space Sciences at the University of Washington, found that deglaciation of the WAIS began at least 10,000 years ago and that the rate of melting has remained constant until the present time.

Robert P. Ackert, Jr., of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, notes in a perspective on the research that only recently have scientists been able to determine conclusively that, “In large and critical areas, the ice sheet surface is lowering and ice volume is decreasing.” This has caused concern because even a 1 percent decrease in ice volume would raise sea level by 5 centimeters and could eventually raise sea level by as much as 5 meters.

“Are we witnessing the early stages of rapid ice sheet collapse, with potential near-term impacts on the worlds coastlines?” asks Ackert. “To answer this question, we must view the new short term measurements in the context of recent ice sheet history and ask whether the observed changes are unusual compared with those of the last 10,000 years. Stone et al. provide a partial answer by reconstructing the recent history of a previously largely unexamined sector of the WAIS.”

Stone et al. found that, “Surface exposure ages of glacial deposits in the Ford Ranges of western Marie Byrd Land indicate continuous thinning of the West Antarctic ice sheet by more than 700 meters near the coast throughout the past 10,000 years. Deglaciation lagged the disappearance of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere by thousands of years and may still be under way. These results provide further evidence that parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are on a long term trajectory of decline. West Antarctic melting contributed water to the oceans in the late Holocene and may continue to do so in the future.”

Ackert notes that, “Recent ice sheet dynamics appear to be dominated by the ongoing response to deglacial forcing thousands of years ago, rather than by recent anthropogenic warming or sea level rise.” On the whole, the WAIS has thinned at a consistent rate of 2.5 to 9 cm/year over the last 9300 years. Ackert also points out that contrary to prior assumptions, “The results suggest that the WAIS is not in equilibrium with present environmental conditions and has been thinning for the last 10,000 years.”

This means that predicting the future behavior of the ice sheet is significantly more difficult than simply building “quasi-steady state models that reproduce the current ice sheet and then perturb them with possible climate or sea-level forcing.” Instead, scientists must use “dynamic models that reproduce the deglacial historyas a baseline.”

New Findings Lead to New Predictions

What happens when you feed real world data into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes climate models? That is the question answered in a new study in the most recent issue of Climate Research. The researchers, led by Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist at the University of Virginia, found that if the IPCCs model is applied to scientific findings that have appeared since the release of its Third Assessment Report, the resulting predictions are significantly less frightening.

The researchers used the IPCCs six major storylines, or projections about population and economic growth, and energy use, and incorporated assumptions that agree with recent scientific developments:

  • Research showing that black carbon aerosols offset the cooling affect of sulfate aerosols that scientists had assumed was masking anthropogenic warming.

  • The iris effect, where high-level tropical cloudiness diminishes in response to temperature increases, allowing the surface to cool, thereby offsetting anthropogenic warming.

  • Adjustments to the rate of increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, from a previously assumed exponential increase, to a constant increase as has been observed for the last 25 years.

  • Research showing that the carbon cycle does not intensify in response to higher temperatures.

Plugging this new empirical data into the models, the researchers found that projected warming over the next 100 years falls in the range of 1.0 to 1.6 degrees C, instead of the IPCCs projection of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C.

The study concludes that the upper bound of the new projection is the most likely outcome. This is due to the fact that nearly all climate models show human-induced warming to be constant, and a simple linear extrapolation from those results leads to about 1.5 degrees warming over the next 100 years. This is also borne out in the observed temperature data.

The study also notes that the lower range of its projection is also possible due to the well-known fact that the temperature response to carbon-forcing is logarithmic, or decreases as atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increases. Atmospheric carbon dioxide data “indicate that any exponential rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations is weak at best. Consequently the current linear warming may in fact be the adjustment to exponential growth in CO2 that took place prior to 1975 [emphasis in original].”

Regardless of whether warming will continue to be linear or damp off in the next 100 years, the study concludes that there is little to fear from global warming.

No Flooding Trends in the U.S.

A new study in Geophysical Research Letters (December 24, 2002) finds that fears about an increased hydrological cycle (more flooding) from global warming may be overblown. The researchers, Greg McCabe and David Wolock with the U.S. Geological Survey, analyzed the annual maximum, median and minimum streamflow values from 400 gauging stations throughout the United States from 1941 to 1999. What they found was that after 1970 there is a clear trend of higher average streamflow across the U.S., which is more pronounced in the median and low flow cases than in the high flow case.

They also note, however, that there is a definite jump in 1970 in streamflow levels. McCabe and Wolock then looked at all time periods of all possible durations with a minimum of 10 years and found that there were trends in all time periods that included 1970, but few trends in time periods that do not include that year. In other words, trends in streamflow are rare before and after 1970. The abrupt change in 1970 gives a false impression of a longterm upward trend in streamflow.

Finally, most of the trends are concentrated in the median and low flow categories. Only 60 sites saw trends in the annual high flow category, while 202 showed increases in the low flow category. What this means is that there has been an increase in rainfall during the times of year when water is in short supply, but that there has been no increase in flooding, a rather happy result.

Etc.

Many parts of the world are gripped in some of the most frigid and snowy weather experienced in a long time or ever. Beijing, China had 6 consecutive days of snowfall at Christmas time, the longest consecutive snowfall in that city in 128 years. Chinas largest desert, Taklimakan, received 14 centimeters of snow over several consecutive days.

“Taklimakan has had snow every year since the Xinjiang Regional Meteorological Bureau set up a monitoring station in the desert in the 1990s, but the recorded precipitation has been light. It is rare for the desert to have such a heavy snow,” said Lu Guoying, an expert at the regional meteorological bureau. In northern India and Bangladesh, over 250 people have died from exposure to the cold, as temperatures plummeted to well below freezing.

Even more surprising, people are dying in traditionally cooler climates where a combination of record cold and inadequate energy supplies is taking their toll. Record low temperatures in Norway have wreaked all sorts of havoc for its people. Much of the transit system has been frozen out of service, and electricity prices have skyrocketed as demand for home heating is outstripping inadequate electricity supplies.

Unfortunately, several elderly citizens had to be admitted to the hospital with dangerously low body temperatures. At least three have died from the cold after being found in unheated apartments. According to the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten (January 6, 2003), “Many thrifty, elderly residents have grown worried by reports of record high electricity prices. Too many have opted to turn their heat down to avoid expensive utility bills.” Norway has not built a new power plant in ten years due to environmental politics, according to Still Waiting for Greenhouse (www.john-daly.com).

Many places in Finland have also reached record lows this winter, and the Baltic Seas ice cover is more extensive than it has been in decades. The ice is also 5 to 20 centimeters thicker than usual. According to Helsingin Sanomat (January 8, 2002) “Experts say that the whole Baltic Sea could freeze over all the way to the Straits of Denmark, for the first time since 1948.” Finland is also experiencing shortfalls in electricity supply and has had to import almost 2,000 MW of electricity from Russia and Sweden to keep the lights on and the heaters running.

Finally, 40 ships have been trapped in the ice in the Gulf of Finland in Russia. Moscow reached temperatures as low as -37 degrees C, and as many as 23,000 people are without heat as antiquated systems have broken down.

A Climate Change Glossary

by William Yeatman on December 31, 2002

in Kyoto Negotiations, Politics, Science, Students

Please note that this glossary was compiled with defininitions from the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

Absorption of Radiation. The uptake of radiation by a solid body, liquid or gas. The absorbed energy may be transferred or re-emitted.

Acid Rain. Also known as “acid deposition.” Acidic aerosols in the atmosphere are removed from the atmosphere by wet deposition (rain, snow, fog) or dry deposition (particles sticking to vegetation). Acidic aerosols are present in the atmosphere primarily due to discharges of gaseous sulfur oxides (sulfur dioxide) and nitrogen oxides from both anthropogenic and natural sources. In the atmosphere these gases combine with water to form acids.

Aerosols. Particles of matter, solid or liquid, larger than a molecule but small enough to remain suspended in the atmosphere. Natural sources include salt particles from sea spray and clay particles as a result of weathering of rocks, both of which are carried upward by the wind. Aerosols can also originate as a result of human activities and in this case are often considered pollutants. See also Sulfate Aerosols.

Albedo. The ratio of reflected to incident light; albedo can be expressed as either a percentage or a fraction of 1. Snow covered areas have a high albedo (up to about 0.9 or 90%) due to their white color, while vegetation has a low albedo (generally about 0.1 or 10%) due to the dark color and light absorbed for photosynthesis. Clouds have an intermediate albedo and are the most important contributor to the Earth’s albedo. The Earth’s aggregate albedo is approximately 0.3.

Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). The group of Pacific and Caribbean nations who call for relatively fast action by developed nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The AOSIS countries fear the effects of rising sea levels and increased storm activity predicted to accompany global warming. Its plan is to hold Annex I Parties to a 20 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2005.

Annex I Parties. Industrialized countries that, as parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, have pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2000 to 1990 levels. Annex I Parties consist of countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and countries designated as Economies-in-Transition.

Anthropogenic. Derived from human activities.

Atmosphere. The mixture of gases surrounding the Earth. The Earth’s atmosphere consists of about 79.1% nitrogen (by volume), 20.9% oxygen, 0.036% carbon dioxide and trace amounts of other gases. The atmosphere can be divided into a number of layers according to its mixing or chemical characteristics, generally determined by its thermal properties (temperature). The layer nearest the Earth is the troposphere, which reaches up to an altitude of about 8 km (about 5 miles) in the polar regions and up to 17 km (nearly 11 miles) above the equator. The stratosphere, which reaches to an altitude of about 50 km (31 miles) lies atop the troposphere. The mesosphere which extends up to 80-90 km is atop the stratosphere, and finally, the thermosphere, or ionosphere, gradually diminishes and forms a fuzzy border with outer space. There is relatively little mixing of gases between layers.

Baseline Emissions. The emissions that would occur without policy intervention (in a business-as-usual scenario). Baseline estimates are needed to determine the effectiveness of emissions reduction programs (often called mitigation strategies).

Berlin Mandate. A ruling negotiated at the first Conference of the Parties (CoP 1), which took place in March, 1995, concluding that the present commitments under the Framework Convention on Climate Change are not adequate. Under the Framework Convention, developed countries pledged to take measures aimed at returning their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The Berlin Mandate establishes a process that would enable the Parties to take appropriate action for the period beyond 2000, including a strengthening of developed country commitments, through the adoption of a protocol or other legal instruments.

Biogeochemical Cycle. The chemical interactions that take place among the atmosphere, biosphere , hydrosphere, and geosphere.

Biomass. Organic nonfossil material of biological origin. For example, trees and plants are biomass.

Biomass Energy. Energy produced by combusting renewable biomass materials such as wood. The carbon dioxide emitted from burning biomass will not increase total atmospheric carbon dioxide if this consumption is done on a sustainable basis (i.e., if in a given period of time, regrowth of biomass takes up as much carbon dioxide as is released from biomass combustion). Biomass energy is often suggested as a replacement for fossil fuel combustion which has large greenhouse gas emissions.

Biosphere. The region on land, in the oceans, and in the atmosphere inhabited by living organisms.

Borehole. Any exploratory hole drilled into the Earth or ice to gather geophysical data. Climate researchers often take ice core samples, a type of borehole, to predict atmospheric composition in earlier years.

Carbon Cycle. The global scale exchange of carbon among its reservoirs, namely the atmosphere, oceans, vegetation, soils, and geologic deposits and minerals. This involves components in food chains, in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, in the hydrosphere and in the geosphere.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2). The greenhouse gas whose concentration is being most affected directly by human activities. CO2 also serves as the reference to compare all other greenhouse gases (see carbon dioxide equivalents). The major source of CO2 emissions is fossil fuel combustion. CO2 emissions are also a product of forest clearing, biomass burning, and non-energy production processes such as cement production. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have been increasing at a rate of about 0.5% per year and are now about 30% above preindustrial levels.

Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CDE). A metric measure used to compare the emissions from various greenhouse gases based upon their global warming potential (GWP). Carbon dioxide equivalents are commonly expressed as “million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCDE)” or “million short tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MSTCDE)” The carbon dioxide equivalent for a gas is derived by multiplying the tons of the gas by the associated GWP.

MMTCDE= (million metric tons of a gas) * (GWP of the gas)

For example, the GWP for methane is 24.5. This means that emissions of one million metric tons of methane is equivalent to emissions of 24.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. Carbon may also be used as the reference and other greenhouse gases may be converted to carbon equivalents. To convert carbon to carbon dioxide, multiply the carbon by 44/12 (the ratio of the molecular weight of carbon dioxide to carbon).

Carbon Equivalent (CE). A metric measure used to compare the emissions of the different greenhouse gases based upon their global warming potential (GWP). Greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. are most commonly expressed as “million metric tons of carbon equivalents” (MMTCE). Global warming potentials are used to convert greenhouse gases to carbon dioxide equivalents. Carbon dioxide equivalents can then be converted to carbon equivalents by multiplying the carbon dioxide equivalents by 12/44 (the ratio of the molecular weight of carbon to carbon dioxide). Thus, the formula to derive carbon equivalents is:

MMTCE = (million metric tons of a gas) * (GWP of the gas) * (12/44)

Carbon Sequestration. The uptake and storage of carbon. Trees and plants, for example, absorb carbon dioxide, release the oxygen and store the carbon. Fossil fuels were at one time biomass and continue to store the carbon until burned.

Carbon Sinks. Carbon reservoirs and conditions that take in and store more carbon (carbon sequestration) than they release. Carbon sinks can serve to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Forests and oceans are common carbon sinks.

Chlorofluorocarbons and Related Compounds. This family of anthropogenic compounds includes chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), bromofluorcarbons (halons), methyl chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, methyl bromide, and hydrochlorofluorcarbons (HCFCs). These compounds have been shown to deplete stratospheric ozone, and therefore are typically referred to as ozone depleting substances. The most ozone-depleting of these compounds are being phased out under the Montreal Protocol.

Climate. The average weather (usually taken over a 30-year time period) for a particular region and time period. Climate is not the same as weather, but rather, it is the average pattern of weather for a particular region. Weather describes the short-term state of the atmosphere. Climatic elements include precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and hail storms, and other measures of the weather.

Climate Change (also referred to as ‘global climate change’). The term ‘climate change’ is sometimes used to refer to all forms of climatic inconsistency, but because the Earth’s climate is never static, the term is more properly used to imply a significant change from one climatic condition to another. In some cases, ‘climate change’ has been used synonymously with the term, ‘global warming’; scientists however, tend to use the term in the wider sense to also include natural changes in climate. See also Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.

Climate Change Action Plan (). Unveiled in October, 1993 by President Clinton, the CCAP is the U.S. plan for meeting its pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the terms of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The goal of the CCAP is to reduce U.S. emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The CCAP, which consists of some 50 voluntary federal programs that span all sectors of the economy, uses a win-win approach by helping program partners save energy, save money, and gain access to clean technology while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Feedback. An atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, or other process that is activated by the direct climate change induced by changes in radiative forcing. Climate feedbacks may increase (positive feedback) or diminish (negative feedback) the magnitude of the direct climate change.

Climate Lag. The delay that occurs in climate change as a result of some factor that changes only very slowly. For example, the effects of releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere may not be known for some time because a large fraction is dissolved in the ocean and only released to the atmosphere many years later.

Climate Model. A quantitative way of representing the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. Models can range from relatively simple to quite comprehensive. Also see General Circulation Model.

Climate Modeling. The simulation of the climate using computer-based models. Also see General Circulation Model.

Climate Sensitivity. The equilibrium response of the climate to a change in radiative forcing; for example, a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration.

Climate System (or Earth System). The atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere, the cryosphere, and the geosphere, together make up the climate system.

Cogeneration. The process by which two different and useful forms of energy are produced at the same time. For example, while boiling water to generate electricity, the leftover steam can be sold for industrial processes or space heating.

Compost. Decayed organic matter that can be used as a fertilizer or soil additive.

Conference of the Parties (CoP). The CoP is the collection of nations which have ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), currently over 150 strong, and about 50 Observer States. The primary role of the CoP is to keep the implementation of the Convention under review and to take the decisions necessary for the effective implementation of the Convention. The first CoP (CoP 1) took place in Berlin from March 28th to April 7th, 1995, and was attended by over 1000 observers and 2000 media representatives.

Cryosphere. The frozen part of the Earth’s surface. The cryosphere includes the polar ice caps, continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, sea ice, snow cover, lake and river ice, and permafrost.

Deforestation. Those practices or processes that result in the change of forested lands to non-forest uses. This is often cited as one of the major causes of the enhanced greenhouse effect for two reasons: 1) the burning or decomposition of the wood releases carbon dioxide; and 2) trees that once removed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the process of photosynthesis are no longer present and contributing to carbon storage.

Desertification. The progressive destruction or degradation of existing vegetative cover to form desert. This can occur due to overgrazing, deforestation, drought, and the burning of extensive areas. Once formed, deserts can only support a sparse range of vegetation. Climatic effects associated with this phenomenon include increased albedo, reduced atmospheric humidity, and greater atmospheric dust (aerosol) loading.

El Nino. A climatic phenomenon occurring irregularly, but generally every 3 to 5 years. El Ninos often first become evident during the Christmas season (El Nino means Christ child) in the surface oceans of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon involves seasonal changes in the direction of the tropical winds over the Pacific and abnormally warm surface ocean temperatures. The changes in the tropics are most intense in the Pacific region, these changes can disrupt weather patterns throughout the tropics and can extend to higher latitudes, especially in Central and North America. The relationship between these events and global weather patterns are currently the subject of much research in order to enhance prediction of seasonal to interannual fluctuations in the climate.

Emissions. The release of a substance (usually a gas when referring to the subject of climate change) into the atmosphere.

Enhanced Greenhouse Effect. The natural greenhouse effect has been enhanced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3, and other photochemically important gases caused by human activities such as fossil fuel consumption and adding waste to landfills, trap more infra-red radiation, thereby exerting a warming influence on the climate. See Climate Change and Global Warming.

Evapotranspiration. The sum of evaporation and plant transpiration. Potential evapotranspiration is the amount of water that could be evaporated or transpired at a given temperature and humidity, if there was plenty of water available. Actual evapotranspiration can not be any greater than precipitation, and will usually be less because some water will run off in rivers and flow to the oceans. If potential evapotranspiration is greater than actual precipitation, then soils are extremely dry during at least a major part of the year.

Feedback Mechanisms. A mechanism that connects one aspect of a system to another. The connection can be either amplifying (positive feedback) or moderating (negative feedback). See also Climate Feedback.

Carbon Dioxide Fertilization. An expression (sometimes reduced to ‘fertilization’) used to denote increased plant growth due to a higher carbon dioxide concentration.

Fertilization. A term used to denote efforts to enhance plant growth by increased application of nitrogen-based fertilizer or increased deposition of nitrates in precipitation.

Fluorocarbons. Carbon-fluorine compounds that often contain other elements such as hydrogen, chlorine, or bromine. Common fluorocarbons include chlorofluorocarbons and related compounds (also know as ozone depleting substances), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorcarbons (PFCs).

Forcing Mechanism. A process that alters the energy balance of the climate system, i.e. changes the relative balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation from Earth. Such mechanisms include changes in solar irradiance, volcanic eruptions, and enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect by emission of carbon dioxide. See also Radiative Forcing.

Fossil Fuel. A general term for combustible geologic deposits of carbon in reduced (organic) form and of biological origin, including coal, oil, natural gas, oil shales, and tar sands. A major concern is that they emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere when burnt, thus significantly contributing to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Fossil Fuel Combustion. Burning of coal, oil (including gasoline), or natural gas. This burning, usually to generate energy, releases carbon dioxide, as well as combustion by products that can include unburned hydrocarbons, methane, and carbon monoxide. Carbon monoxide, methane, and many of the unburned hydrocarbons slowly oxidize into carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Common sources of fossil fuel combustion include cars and electric utilities.

Framework Convention on Climate Change (). The landmark international treaty unveiled at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, also known as the “Rio Summit”), in June 1992. The FCCC commits signatory countries to stabilize anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) greenhouse gas emissions to ‘levels that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. The FCCC also requires that all signatory parties develop and update national inventories of anthropogenic emissions of all greenhouse gases not otherwise controlled by the Montreal Protocol. Out of 155 countries that have ratified this accord, the U.S. was the first industrialized nation to do so.

General Circulation Model (GCM). A global, three-dimensional computer model of the climate system which can be used to simulate human-induced climate change. GCMs are highly complex and they represent the effects of such factors as reflective and absorptive properties of atmospheric water vapor, greenhouse gas concentrations, clouds, annual and daily solar heating, ocean temperatures and ice boundaries. The most recent GCMs include global representations of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface.

Geosphere. The soils, sediments, and rock layers of the Earth’s crust, both continental and beneath the ocean floors.

Global Warming. An increase in the near surface temperature of the Earth. Global warming has occurred in the distant past as the result of natural influences, but the term is most often used to refer to the warming predicted to occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Scientists generally agree that the Earth’s surface has warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past 140 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing an increase in the Earth’s surface temperature and that increased concentrations of sulfate aerosols have led to relative cooling in some regions, generally over and downwind of heavily industrialized areas. Also see Climate Change and Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.

Global Warming Potential (GWP). The index used to translate the level of emissions of various gases into a common measure in order to compare the relative radiative forcing of different gases without directly calculating the changes in atmospheric concentrations. GWPs are calculated as the ratio of the radiative forcing that would result from the emissions of one kilogram of a greenhouse gas to that from emission of one kilogram of carbon dioxide over a period of time (usually 100 years). Gases involved in complex atmospheric chemical processes have not been assigned GWPs due to complications that arise. Greenhouse gases are expressed in terms of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has presented these GWPs and regularly updates them in new assessments. The chart below shows the original GWPs (assigned in 1990) and the most recent GWPs (assigned in 1996) for the most important greenhouse gases.

GAS GWP 1990 GWP 1996
Carbon Dioxide 1 1
Methane 22 21
Nitrous Oxide 270 310
HFC-134a 1,200 1,300
HFC-23 10,000 11,700
HFC-152a 150 140
HCF-125 NA* 2,800
PFCs** 5,400 7,850
SF6 NA* 23,900

* Not Applicable. GWP was not yet estimated for this gas.

**This figure is an average GWP for the two PFCs, CF4 and C2F6.

Greenhouse Effect. The effect produced as greenhouse gases allow incoming solar radiation to pass through the Earth’s atmosphere, but prevent most of the outgoing infra-red radiation from the surface and lower atmosphere from escaping into outer space. This process occurs naturally and has kept the Earth’s temperature about 59 degrees F warmer than it would otherwise be. Current life on Earth could not be sustained without the natural greenhouse effect.

Greenhouse Gas. Any gas that absorbs infra-red radiation in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs) , ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

Halocarbons. Chemicals consisting of carbon, sometimes hydrogen, and either chlorine, fluorine bromine or iodine.

Halons. These man-made substances (also known as bromofluorocarbons) are chlorofluorocarbons that contain bromine. See also Chlorofluorocarbons and Related Compounds.

Hydrocarbons. Substances containing only hydrogen and carbon. Fossil fuels are made up of hydrocarbons. Some hydrocarbon compounds are major air pollutants.

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). These chemicals (along with perfluorocarbons) were introduced as alternatives to ozone depleting substances in serving many industrial, commercial, and personal needs. HFCs are emitted as by-products of industrial processes and are also used in manufacturing. They do not significantly deplete the stratospheric ozone layer, but they are powerful greenhouse gases with global warming potentials ranging from 140 (HFC-152a) to 12,100 (HFC-23).

Hydrosphere. The part of the Earth composed of water including clouds, oceans, seas, ice caps, glaciers, lakes, rivers, underground water supplies, and atmospheric water vapor.

HyperText.On the web, text links move you easily from one location to another. For example, go to the site’s navigation page.

Ice Core. A cylindrical section of ice removed from a glacier or an ice sheet in order to study climate patterns of the past. By performing chemical analyses on the air trapped in the ice, scientists can estimate the percentage of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere at that time.

Infra-red Radiation. The heat energy that is emitted from all solids, liquids, and gases. In the context of the greenhouse issue, the term refers to the heat energy emitted by the Earth’s surface and its atmosphere. Greenhouse gases strongly absorb this radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere, and reradiate some back towards the surface, creating the greenhouse effect.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC was established jointly by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988. The purpose of the IPCC is to assess information in the scientific and technical literature related to all significant components of the issue of climate change. The IPCC draws upon hundreds of the world’s expert scientists as authors and thousands as expert reviewers. Leading experts on climate change and environmental, social, and economic sciences from some 60 nations have helped the IPCC to prepare periodic assessments of the scientific underpinnings for understanding global climate change and its consequences. With its capacity for reporting on climate change, its consequences, and the viability of adaptation and mitigation measures, the IPCC is also looked to as the official advisory body to the world’s governments on the state of the science of the climate change issue. For example, the IPCC organized the development of internationally accepted methods for conducting national greenhouse gas emission inventories.

Joint Implementation. Agreements made between two or more nations under the auspices of the Framework Convention on Climate Change to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Lifetime (Atmospheric). The lifetime of a greenhouse gas refers to the approximate amount of time it would take for the anthropogenic increment to an atmospheric pollutant concentration to return to its natural level (assuming emissions cease) as a result of either being converted to another chemical compound or being taken out of the atmosphere via a sink. This time depends on the pollutant’s sources and sinks as well as its reactivity. The lifetime of a pollutant is often considered in conjunction with the mixing of pollutants in the atmosphere; a long lifetime will allow the pollutant to mix throughout the atmosphere. Average lifetimes can vary from about a week (sulfate aerosols) to more than a century (CFCs, carbon dioxide).

Mauna Loa. A volcano on the island of Hawaii where scientists have maintained the longest continuous collection of reliable daily atmospheric records.

Meteorology. The science of weather-related phenomena.

Methane (CH4). A hydrocarbon that is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential most recently estimated at 24.5. Methane is produced through anaerobic (without oxygen) decomposition of waste in landfills, animal digestion, decomposition of animal wastes, production and distribution of natural gas and oil, coal production , and incomplete fossil fuel combustion. The atmospheric concentration of methane has been shown to be increasing at a rate of about 0.6% per year and the concentration of about 1.7 parts per million by volume (ppmv) is more than twice its preindustrial value. However, the rate of increase of methane in the atmosphere may be stabilizing.

Metric Ton. Common international measurement for the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions. A metric ton is equal to 2205 lbs or 1.1 short tons.

Mount Pinatubo. A volcano in the Philippine Islands that erupted in 1991. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo ejected enough particulate and sulfate aerosol matter into the atmosphere to block some of the incoming solar radiation from reaching Earth’s atmosphere. This effectively cooled the planet from 1992 to 1994, masking the warming that had been occurring for most of the 1980s and 1990s.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx). Gases consisting of one molecule of nitrogen and varying numbers of oxygen molecules. Nitrogen oxides are produced in the emissions of vehicle exhausts and from power stations. In the atmosphere, nitrogen oxides can contribute to formation of photochemical ozone (smog), can impair visibility, and have health consequences; they are thus considered pollutants.

Nitrous Oxide (N2O). A powerful greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of 320. Major sources of nitrous oxide include soil cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning.

Ozone (O3). Ozone consists of three atoms of oxygen bonded together in contrast to normal atmospheric oxygen which consists of two atoms of oxygen. Ozone is an important greenhouse gas found in both the stratosphere (about 90% of the total atmospheric loading) and the troposphere (about 10%). Ozone has other effects beyond acting as a greenhouse gas. In the stratosphere, ozone provides a protective layer shielding the Earth from ultraviolet radiation and subsequent harmful health effect on humans and the environment. In the troposphere, oxygen molecules in ozone combine with other chemicals and gases (oxidization) to cause smog.

Particulates. Tiny pieces of solid or liquid matter, such as soot, dust, fumes, or mist.

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs). A group of human-made chemicals composed of carbon and fluorine only: CF4 and C2F6. These chemicals, specifically CF4 and C2F6, (along with hydrofluorocarbons) were introduced as alternatives to the ozone depleting substances. In addition, they are emitted as by-products of industrial processes and are also used in manufacturing. PFCs do not harm the stratospheric ozone layer, but they are powerful greenhouse gases: CF4 has a global warming potential (GWP) of 6,300 and C2F6 has a GWP of 12,500.

Photosynthesis. The process by which green plants use light to synthesize organic compounds from carbon dioxide and water. In the process oxygen and water are released. Increased levels of carbon dioxide can increase net photosynthesis in some plants. Plants create a very important reservoir for carbon dioxide.

Pollutant. Strictly, too much of any substance in the wrong place or at the wrong time is a pollutant. More specifically, atmospheric pollution may be defined as the presence of substances in the atmosphere, resulting from man-made activities or from natural processes that cause adverse effects to human health, property, and the environment.

Precautionary Approach. The approach promoted under the Framework Convention of Climate Change to help achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.

Precession. The tendency of the Earth’s axis to wobble in space over a period of 23,000 years. The Earth’s precession is one of the factors that results in the planet receiving different amounts of solar energy over extended periods of time.

Radiation. Energy emitted in the form of electromagnetic waves. Radiation has differing characteristics depending upon the wavelength. Because the radiation from the Sun is relatively energetic, it has a short wavelength (ultra-violet, visible, and near infra-red) while energy re-radiated from the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere has a longer wavelength (infra-red radiation) because the Earth is cooler than the Sun.

Radiative Forcing. A change in the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infra-red radiation. Without any radiative forcing, solar radiation coming to the Earth would continue to be approximately equal to the infra-red radiation emitted from the Earth. The addition of greenhouse gases traps and increased fraction of the infra-red radiation, reradiating it back toward the surface and creating a warming influence (i.e., positive radiative forcing because incoming solar radiation will exceed outgoing infra-red radiation).

Residence Time. The average time spent in a reservoir by an individual atom or molecule. Also, the age of a molecule when it leaves the reservoir. With respect to greenhouse gases, residence time usually refers to how long a particular molecule remains in the atmosphere.

Respiration. The process by which animals use up stored foods (by combustion with oxygen) to produce energy.

Short Ton. Common measurement for a ton in the United States. A short ton is equal to 2,000 lbs or 0.907 metric tons.

Sink. A reservoir that uptakes a pollutant from another part of its cycle. Soil and trees tend to act as natural sinks for carbon.

Solar Radiation. Energy from the Sun. Also referred to as short-wave radiation. Of importance to the climate system, solar radiation includes ultra-violet radiation, visible radiation, and infra-red radiation.

Stratosphere. The part of the atmosphere directly above the troposphere. See Atmosphere.

Sulfate Aerosol. Particulate matter that consists of compounds of sulfur formed by the interaction of sulfur dioxide and sulfur trioxide with other compounds in the atmosphere. Sulfate aerosols are injected into the atmosphere from the combustion of fossil fuels and the eruption of volcanoes like Mt. Pinatubo. Recent theory suggests that sulfate aerosols may lower the earth’s temperature by reflecting away solar radiation (negative radiative forcing). Global Climate Models which incorporate the effects of sulfate aerosols more accurately predict global temperature variations.

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2). A compound composed of one sulfur and two oxygen molecules. Sulfur dioxide emitted into the atmosphere through natural and anthropogenic processes is changed in a complex series of chemical reactions in the atmosphere to sulfate aerosols. These aerosols result in negative radiative forcing (i.e., tending to cool the Earth’s surface).

Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6). A very powerful greenhouse gas used primarily in electrical transmission and distribution systems. SF6 has a global warming potential of 24,900.

Trace Gas. Any one of the less common gases found in the Earth’s atmosphere. Nitrogen, oxygen, and argon make up more than 99 percent of the Earth’s atmosphere. Other gases, such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, oxides of nitrogen, ozone, and ammonia, are considered trace gases. Although relatively unimportant in terms of their absolute volume, they have significant effects on the Earth’s weather and climate.

Troposphere. The lowest layer of the atmosphere. The troposphere extends from the Earth’s surface up to about 10-15 km. See also Atmosphere.

Tropospheric Ozone (O3). Ozone that is located in the troposphere and plays a significant role in the greenhouse gas effect and urban smog. See Ozone for more details.

Tropospheric Ozone Precursor. Gases that influence the rate at which ozone is created and destroyed in the atmosphere. Such gases include: carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs).

Water Vapor. The most abundant greenhouse gas, it is the water present in the atmosphere in gaseous form. Water vapor is an important part of the natural greenhouse effect. While humans are not significantly increasing its concentration, it contributes to the enhanced greenhouse effect because the warming influence of greenhouse gases leads to a positive water vapor feedback. In addition to its role as a natural greenhouse gas, water vapor plays an important role in regulating the temperature of the planet because clouds form when excess water vapor in the atmosphere condenses to form ice and water droplets and precipitation.

Weather. Weather is the specific condition of the atmosphere at a particular place and time. It is measured in terms of such things as wind, temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness, and precipitation. In most places, weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, and season-to-season. Climate is the average of weather over time and space. A simple way of remembering the difference is that ‘climate’ is what you expect (e.g., cold winters) and ‘weather’ is what you get (e.g., a blizzard).

Offshore Wind Farm Poses Significant Economic and Environmental Costs; San Francisco Leaps Into Solar Power

by William Yeatman on November 26, 2002

in Politics, Science, Small business

Offshore Wind Farm Poses Significant Economic and Environmental Costs

Energy analyst Glenn Schleede has once again exposed the problems with wind power in comments he has submitted to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which is conducting an economic and environmental analysis of a proposed offshore wind farm.

The wind farm proposed by Winergy LLC would be located five miles off the coast of the eastern shore of Virginia. In a preliminary analysis, the Corps determined that the project would not require an Environmental Impact Statement. Schleede disagrees, saying that the Corps has “underestimated the potential environmental impactincluding onshore impact” of the project.

The wind farm would produce approximately 2.5 billion kWh of electricity per year, assuming a generous 30 percent capacity factor. The wind turbines themselves would cover 57 square miles of the Atlantic Ocean, yet would produce slightly less electricity than a “new baseload 350 MW gas-fired combined cycle generating unit,” which would “occupy only a few acres.” Moreover, the amount of electricity produced would only equal approximately 3.3 percent of the total electricity produced in Virginia.

Schleede points out several potential adverse effects that should be mitigated as a condition to awarding any permits, including impacts that would not be limited to the 57 square miles of ocean. “Feeding such a potentially large (975 MW, at times), highly variable (from 0 to 975 MW), and often unpredictable amount of electricity into an onshore transmission line and electric grid would be a significant burden on existing onshore transmission capacity and the stability of a regional electric system that must be kept in balance (e.g., voltage, frequency).”

The addition of wind capacity would likely “impair rather than enhance electric system reliability,” says Schleede. The Corps should also take into account the need for backup generation and transmission capacity as part of the full costs of the wind farm.

The Corps should also have a firm grasp of wind energy economics and especially the role of federal subsidies, says Schleede. “In some cases, the value of the subsidies may exceed the revenue wind farm owners receive from the electricity that they sell. Schleede estimates that Winergys proposed wind farm would receive an annual tax credit of more than $46 million. The project would also qualify for accelerated depreciation and would be able to write off the entire $900 million in estimated capital costs in 6 years. Yet the annual revenue from selling electricity would be only a little over $52 million. Schleede also notes that tax sheltering through accelerated depreciation often leads to early sale or abandonment of wind farms.

Finally, Schleede argues that rather than being environmentally benign, wind farms entail significant environmental costs. He notes the opposition to wind farms is growing around the world, “often due to the adverse impact of wind farms on environmental, ecological, scenic, and property values.”

Stanford Launches Energy Project

On Nov. 20, Stanford University announced the creation of the Global Climate and Energy Project (G-CEP). The purpose of the project is to “engage in research to develop technologies that foster the development of a global energy system where greenhouse emissions are much lower than today.” It may also be seen as addressing the challenge posed by the article in the November 1 issue of Science, which we reported in the last issue.

Funding commitments from three major corporations totaling $225 million over the next 10 years were also announced, with several other corporations expected to make additional commitments in the near future. ExxonMobil, the worlds largest publicly-traded petroleum company, plans to contribute up to $100 million; General Electric, the world leader in power generation technology and services, $50 million; and Schlumberger, a global technology services company, $25 million. Stanford engineers and scientists will do much of the research, but will be joined by other major institutions in North America, Europe and Asia.

The project was immediately criticized as inadequate, and ExxonMobils role was attacked. “Im somewhat skeptical, given the history of some of the companies involved in this, that it represents a dramatic change in their resistance to aggressive federal and state policy action on the issue,” said Alden M. Meyer, director of government relations for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“This could be seen as another effort [by ExxonMobil] to say, Were doing something, but this is a complex problem thats going to take decades to solve and, in the meantime, lets not do anything aggressive with fuel economy standards or anything else that actually reduces oil use today,” he said (Los Angeles Times, November 21, 2002).

Lee Raymond, chairman of ExxonMobil, responded that, “Our investment in G-CEP is a demonstration of our long-held belief that successful development and global deployment of innovative, commercially viable technology is the only path that can address long-term climate-change risks while preserving and promoting prosperity of the world’s economies.”

San Francisco Leaps Into Solar Power

Following a major referendum last year in which San Francisco residents approved a $100 million bond measure to install as many solar panels in the city as the rest of the nation does all year, Mayor Willie Brown announced a $7.4 million project to install solar panels on the roof to the Moscone Convention Center. “The Moscone Center project itself couldnt be better. It is a gem which should make city leaders across the country salivate,” said Brown. “It would be fiscally irresponsible not to do a project like this” (Associated Press, November 22, 2002).

The economics of the project dont look good, however. The project, which will also include retrofitting for energy efficient fixtures, will save the city a mere $210,000 per year, meaning it will take more than 35 years for the project to “pay for itself (San Francisco Chronicle, November 22, 2002).” Several other cities are considering following San Franciscos example. Brown says that he has heard from 15 other cities that are considering similar programs, including San Diego, Denver and New York (Los Angeles Times, November 22, 2002).

Evaporation Declines Despite Model Predictions; Pacific Oscillation Drives Climate Change

by William Yeatman on November 26, 2002

in Science

Evaporation Declines Despite Model Predictions

Global warming predictions depend on assumptions about certain “feedback effects.” The key feedback effect driving predictions of catastrophic global warming has to do with changes in evaporation and concentrations of atmospheric water vapor. According to the theory, a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would raise global temperatures approximately one degree Celsius over the next century. That small amount of warming, however, would increase evaporation at the surface, raising concentrations of water vapor, a major greenhouse gas, in the atmosphere. It is this positive feedback effect that would cause the lions share of warming, according to the climate models.

A new empirical study in the November 15 issue of Science fails to confirm this feedback hypothesis. The authors, Michael Roderick and Graham Farquhar with the Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Accounting at the Australian National University in Canberra, found that evaporation in the Northern Hemisphere has actually decreased over the past 50 years. They refer to this difference between the expected and observed trend in evaporation as the “pan evaporation paradox.”

The authors argue that there really is no paradox, however. They argue that reduced evaporation is due to “a substantial decline in global solar irradiance as a consequence of increased cloud coverage and/or aerosol concentration.” Although the authors do present data to support their view that solar irradiance has decreased, they offer no support that it may be caused by increases in aerosol concentrations. Indeed, there has been a steady decline in aerosol concentrations over the last 50 years. That aside, the fact that evaporation has decreased while temperatures have apparently increased strikes another blow to the confidence that can be placed in climate models predictions.

Pacific Oscillation Drives Climate Change

A new study in the Geophysical Research Letters (October 8, 2002) suggests that long-term changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures may be the key to understanding global climate change. “Abrupt changes in water temperatures occurring over intervals of up to 25 years suggest that global warming may result as much from natural cyclical variations as from human activity,” said Benjamin Giese, of the College of Geosciences at Texas A&M and a co-author of the study.

“Climate models constructed here at Texas A&M University were used to analyze ocean surface temperature records in the tropical Pacific since 1950,” said Giese. “The results suggest that as much as one-half of all global surface warming since the 1970s may be part of natural variation as distinct from the result of greenhouse gases.”

Giese noted that over the last 50 years it appears that global surface temperatures have increased about a half degree Celsius, but that the general trend is highly variable. “How much of this variability is attributable to natural variations and how much is due to anthropogenic contributions to atmospheric greenhouse gases has not yet been resolved,” he said. “Recent studies indicate that it is difficult to separate intrinsic variance from anthropogenic forcing in the climate system.”

The data on tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures show that long-term increases in ocean temperatures precede changes in global surface air temperatures by about four years. These changes in ocean temperatures are in turn preceded by seven years by deeper subsurface water temperature changes. “Thus, the results suggest that much of the decade to decade variations in global air temperature may be attributed to tropical Pacific decadal variability,” said Giese. “The results also suggest that subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific can be used as a predictor of decadal variations of global surface temperature.”

An abrupt temperature change in the Pacific Ocean in 1976 preceded a two-tenths of a degree increase in global air temperatures. Moreover, it now appears that the tropical Pacific Ocean temperature is now shifting back to pre-1976 conditions. “The subsurface tropical Pacific has shown a distinct cooling trend over the last eight years, so the possibility exists that a warming trend in global surface air temperature observed since the late 1970s may soon weaken,” according to Giese.

Announcements

Taken By Storm: The Troubled Science, Policy and Politics of Global Warming has just been published in Canada by Key Porter Books. The authors are Ross McKitrick, an economist with the University of Guelph in Ontario and a Cooler Heads Coalition lecturer in 2001, and Christopher Essex, a mathematician at the University of Western Ontario who specializes in the underlying mathematics, physics and computation of complex dynamical processes such as climate. The authors “explain the science of climate change and show that the widespread belief in global warming is really a house of cards.” Further information is available at www.takenbystorm.info.

Prospects of Stabilizing Emissions Appear Bleak; Global Warming and Heat-Related Mortality

by William Yeatman on November 12, 2002

in Kyoto Negotiations, Science

Prospects of Stabilizing Emissions Appear Bleak

In a major challenge to the conventional wisdom, a team of scientists has delivered a devastating blow to the Kyoto Protocol in a review of energy technologies published in the November 1 issue of Science.

The lead author is Martin Hoffert, a physicist at New York University. Also notable among the authors are the popular science fiction writer Gregory Benford, a physicist at the University of California, Irvine, Michael Schlesinger, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois, and Tom Wigley, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and long time promoter of climate alarmism.

The review, which takes catastrophic global warming claims at face value, argues that our fossil fuel-dominated energy system “cannot be regulated away.” Indeed, the only real solution is “the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.”

This challenge is presented in stark terms. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for a stabilization of greenhouse gases at levels that avoid “dangerous anthropogenic (man-made) interference with the climate system.” The authors argue that stabilization at levels as low as 450 parts per million (ppm) may be necessary to do this. “Targets of cutting to 450 ppm…could require Herculean effort,” says the report. “Even holding at 550 ppm is a major challenge.”

Currently, the worlds power consumption is about 12 trillion watts, 85 percent of which is supplied by fossil fuels. By 2050, energy consumption will be as much as three times the amount currently produced by fossil fuels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claimed in its latest report that, “Known technological options could achieve a broad range of atmospheric CO2 stabilization levels, such as 550 ppm, 450 ppm or below over the next 100 years or more.” The authors disagree. “This statement does not recognize the CO2 emission-free power requirements implied by the IPCCs own reports…. Energy sources that can produce 100 to 300 percent of present world power consumption without greenhouse emissions do not exist operationally or as pilot plants.”

The authors assess various possible methods to achieve the requisite greenhouse gas reductions, such as efficiency improvements, decarbonization and sequestration, renewables, nuclear power, and geoengineering. Nuclear fusion appears to be the best option, according to the review. “Despite enormous hurdles,” it says, “the most promising long-term nuclear power source is still fusion.” The other potential solutions considered by the authors are far from promising.

Decarbonization is moving from high carbon fuels such as coal to low carbon fuels such as natural gas, and eventually to carbon neutral fuels such as hydrogen. But hydrogen does not exist in geological reservoirs and must be extracted from fossil fuel feedstocks or water. “Per unit of heat generated, more CO2 is produced by making H2 [hydrogen] from fossil fuel than by burning the fossil fuel directly,” says the review. Getting the hydrogen from water is even less viable.

Renewable energy, such as solar or wind power, is not a viable solution either. “All renewables suffer from low areal power densities,” write the authors. Thus they require enormous amounts of land. Moreover, “Renewables are intermittent dispersed sources unsuited to baseload without transmission, storage, and power conditioning.”

The article concludes that the ability to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions without seriously damaging the economy is not possible at this time. “CO2 is a combustion product vital to how civilization is powered.” All of the approaches discussed in the paper to replace fossil fuels “have serious deficiencies that limit their ability to stabilize global climate.”

Global Warming and Heat-Related Mortality

One of the speculative impacts of global warming is the increase of heat-related mortality due to rising summertime temperatures. A study in Climate Research (September 6, 2002) finds that there is no evidence to support that claim.

The team of researchers, led by Robert Davis of the University of Virginia, looked at the impact of high temperatures on daily mortality rates over four decades in six major metropolitan areas along the U.S. east coast from north to south. What they found was that in the three southernmost cities, there were few significant mortality effects related to temperature extremes. But in the three northernmost cities, there was a significant decline in population-adjusted mortality rates.

What this means is that, “These statistically significant reductions in hot-weather mortality rates suggest that the populace in cities that were weather-sensitive in the 1960s and 1970s have become less impacted by extreme conditions over time because of improved medical care, increased access to air conditioning, and biophysical and infrastructure adaptations.” They note that, “This analysis counters the paradigm of increased heat-related mortality rates in the eastern U.S. predicted to result from future climate warming.”

Etc.

Last Sunday, Al Gore guest-starred as the voice of his own disembodied head in the animated Fox series Futurama. The episode was written by Gores daughter Kristin, and according to the Washington Post (November 2, 2002), “Gores preserved cranium hosts an emergency summit to determine how to combat global warming caused by robot emissions.” Oddly enough, this wouldnt be the most outlandish thing the Gore has said about global warming.

More CO2 Helps Plants, Not Bugs; Climate Models Fail to Reproduce Natural Temperature Fluctuations;

by William Yeatman on July 9, 2002

in Science

More CO2 Helps Plants, Not Bugs

Two studies appearing in the July issue of Global Change Biology have concluded that increasing CO2 levels will have negative effects on insects, but positive effects for plants. One report by Peter Stiling and colleagues found that, “More herbivores die of host plant-induced death in elevated CO2 than in ambient CO2” and these plant-eating insects are more likely to be attacked because they have to feed for longer periods of time to get the nutrients needed.

A second study by David Stacey and Mark Fellowes concluded that there is now “empirical evidence that changes in host plant quality by increased levels of CO2 can alter the outcome of interspecific competition among insect herbivores.” As Robert Balling of Arizona State University points out, both studies show that plants would benefit from higher CO2 levels. Balling states, “These two articles add to the evidence that elevated CO2 will benefit plants without giving herbivores any competition advantage over the plant.”

Climate Models Fail to Reproduce Natural Temperature Fluctuations

Climate models that serve as the basis for global warming predictions fail to reproduce correctly the fluctuations in atmospheric temperatures over time scales of months and years, according to new research appearing in the July 8 issue of Physical Review Letters.

The study explains that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic dynamics are solved in the models using highly sophisticated numerical solutions, but that there are also “subgrid-scale processes” that are too small to be modeled. These are handled by “parameterization schemes,” which amounts to little more than arbitrarily assigning a value to the particular process being considered. Some of these subgrid-scales includes, surprisingly enough, the roles of various greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide and the effect of aerosols.

In earlier research, the authors discovered a universal mathematical relationship, known as a scaling law, which describes the correlations between temperature fluctuations. What they found was that temperature variations from their average values exhibit persistence that decays at a well-defined rate. “The range of this persistence law exceeds ten years, and there is no evidence for a breakdown of the law at even larger timescales,” according to the study.

Using this scaling law, the researchers tested seven general circulation models, including the U.S.-based model at the National Climate for Atmospheric Research, against historical atmospheric temperature data from six representative sites. What they found was that the models, “fail to reproduce the universal scaling behavior observed in the real temperature records.”

The researchers explain that, “It is possible that the lack of long-term persistence is due to the fact that certain forcings such as volcanic eruptions or solar fluctuations have not been incorporated in the models.” But they cannot “rule out that systematic model deficiencies (such as the use of equivalent CO2 forcing to account for all other greenhouse gases or inaccurate spatial and temporal distributions of sulfate aerosols) prevent the [climate models] from correctly simulating the natural variability of the atmosphere.”

They conclude, “Since the models underestimate the long-range persistence of the atmosphere and overestimate the trends, our analysis suggests that the anticipated global warming is also overestimated by the models.”

More National Assessment Shenanigans

The National Assessment (NACC), a Clinton administration report on the possible impacts of climate change that has resurfaced in the Bush administration, has come under repeated and heavy criticism due to its sloppy research, absurd computer modeling, and political bias. Now it appears that the NACC involves scientific fraud as well. According to Tech Central Station at (www.techcentralstation.com, June 28, 2002), the U. S. Global Change Research Program altered the color scheme of the graphics used in the assessment to hide large discrepancies between the two models one from the Canadian Climate Centre and the other from the UK-based Hadley Centre that were used to make 100-year forecasts.

When the results from the two models were completed, they showed very different trends for future warming. Typically, when modelers show their results graphically, they use colors on a map to show temperature variations. The color scale goes from dark blue to lighter blues, which represent cooling, to green, yellow, orange and red to show progressively warmer temperatures. Dark blue sections represent about a 5 degree cooling, whereas red represents about a 15 degree warming.

Putting the two model results side by side, one could see that there were huge discrepancies between them. Several of the technical reviewers commented that the differences between the models cast doubt on the quality of the predictions. To “fix” the problem, the USGCRP changed the color scheme so that the scale used was mostly red and orange with a little blue at the bottom. Indeed, the orange extended all the way into the cooling part of the scale. The result was to eliminate blues, greens and yellows from the maps, which became nearly all orange or red, thereby obscuring the differences between the model results. The before and after pictures are available at the Tech Central Station website. A more detailed discussion of the changes can be found at www.john-daly.com.

Etc.

At a press conference held by Environmental Media Services in Washington on July 2, it was claimed that U. S. businesses could be harmed by the Bush Administrations decision to reject the Kyoto Protocol. John Palmisano, whose company Evolution Markets advises corporations on how to trade and reduce emissions, asserted that even if global warming is not true, business will benefit through emissions trading becausewell, because they will have the ability to track emissions. Palmisano was previously a leading promoter of emissions trading at Enron Corporation.

Joseph Romm, of the Center for Energy and Climate Solutions and a former Assistant Secretary of Energy in the Clinton Administration, said: “There is no type of business in this country that cannot make a profit through reducing carbon emissions.” Romm claimed that consumers prefer to buy products from “cool companies”, a sentiment echoed by Michael Marvin of the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. Marvin claimed that both consumers and shareholders want emissions reductions.

Environmental Media Services passed out copies of a recent report by the Conference Board titled, “Global Climate Change: Fact or Fiction? It Doesnt Matterthe Issue is Here to Stay.” For those interested in basing public policy or investment decisions on fantasy, the report may be found at http://www.conference-board.org/ea_reports/EA_23.pdf.

Announcement

The Cato Institute is sponsoring a lunchtime briefing on Global Warming: Rational Science, Rational Policy on July 19 in Room B-338 of the Rayburn House Office Building. The speakers will be Patrick Michaels of the University of Virginia and Cato and Jerry Taylor of Cato. Registration, which is required, may be accomplished by calling Julie Cullifer at (202) 789-5229 or online at www.cato.org/events.

Senate Passes “Energy” Bill Loaded with Global Warming Policies; Vehicle Emissions Bill Passes California Senate Committee; EU H

by William Yeatman on April 30, 2002

in Politics

Senate Passes “Energy” Bill Loaded with Global Warming Policies

On April 25, the Senate overwhelmingly passed comprehensive energy legislation by a vote of 88-11. Ironically, neither Senate Republicans nor Democrats seemed pleased by the end product.

The Senate bill (formerly S. 1766, then S. 517, and finally passed as H. R. 4) has little in common with either the energy bill the House passed last August or the Bush administrations energy plan released in May 2001. Instead of provisions designed to rebuild Americas energy infrastructure and provide more secure and abundant supplies of energy, the key parts of the Senate bill would raise energy prices for consumers and create countless new government programs, offices, agencies, and reports.

Many key parts of global warming bills introduced in the Senate during this Congress are included. Title XI, which in Majority Leader Tom Daschles (D-S.D.) original version provided for a mandatory registry of greenhouse gas emissions, was replaced with a complex amendment offered by Senators Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) and Sam Brownback (R-Ks.). Their amendment was accepted after an attempt led by Senators Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) and George Voinovich (R-Ohio) to replace the mandatory registry with a voluntary one was withdrawn because it lacked majority support.

The Brownback-Corzine amendment creates a registry of emissions that would be voluntary in name only. Unless 60% of total U.S. GHG emissions are reported within five years, the registry would automatically become mandatory, although farms and feedlots would be exempt. The amendment would require the reporting of indirect as well as direct emissions, which means that automakers, soda bottlers, and brewers are likely to be forced to report emissions from their products.

Among numerous other global warming provisions, the bill re-directs the efforts of the U.S. Global Change Research Program and makes it a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and includes “sense of the Senate” language that supersedes the Senates 1997 Byrd-Hagel resolution.

The Senate-passed version also includes a renewable portfolio standard that requires that ten percent of electricity produced by utilities be generated from non-hydro renewable sources by 2019. Another provision designed to raise energy prices an expanded ethanol mandate that will triple the amount of ethanol required in gasoline by 2012 survived repeated attempts by Senators Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), and Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) to remove or weaken it.

The Senate and House versions of H.R. 4 now go to a conference committee, which will try to produce a compromise bill acceptable to both chambers.

Eileen Claussen, executive director of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, a front group for corporations that hope to profit from energy rationing, was elated over the climate provisions in the bill. “This is more activity than we’ve seen on climate change in the Congress, I think, ever, which is a very positive sign,” she said (Los Angeles Times, April 26, 2002).

Vehicle Emissions Bill Passes California Senate Committee

A California Senate Committee has approved, by a vote of 8-3, AB1058, a bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from California automobiles. The measure has already passed the California Assembly, and will be voted on by the full Senate as early as next week.

“The bill,” according to Reuters (May 1, 2002), “would require the states Air Resources Board to adopt regulations that would achieve the maximum feasible reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, emitted by cars and light-duty trucks, the category that includes sport utility vehicles.” The bill originally would have required the regulations to be completed by 2005 and would take effect on January 1, 2006, but an amendment to the bill would give automakers until 2009 to comply with the new standards.

Automakers are attacking the bill, arguing that it is a “driving tax” that would severely impact sales of SUVs, which account for 47 percent of the vehicles sold in California. The bills author, Assemblywoman Fran Pavley of Woodland Hills, dismisses the auto industrys complaints. She claims that automakers will have no problem meeting the new standards, noting that Ford will be coming out with a new gas/electric hybrid SUV in the near future. “A lot of automakers have cars in the works that will offset CO2 emissions,” Pavley said.

EU Hits Rio Target, But Likely to Miss Kyoto Target

The European Union has announced that it has reached the greenhouse gas reduction target that it agreed to under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The voluntary target was to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2000. The EU claims that it reduced its emissions to 3.5 percent below 1990 levels in 2000.

Although the European Commission congratulated itself for the success, it also expressed concern over increases in greenhouse gas emissions between 1999 and 2000. Emissions of carbon dioxide rose by 0.5 percent while emissions of five other greenhouse gases rose by 0.3 percent.

The commission warned that under existing policies the EU would not meet the target it agreed to under the Kyoto Protocol, which is to reduce emissions to eight percent below 1990 levels by the 2008-2012 compliance period.

“All member states except for the United Kingdom project their emissions by 2010 will be above their burden-sharing target under the Kyoto Protocol,” said Commission spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde. “The new EEA [European Environment Agency] data confirm that in the year 2000 most member states were well above their target path to Kyoto.”

The EU has been trying to implement a Europe-wide tax on greenhouse gas emissions for ten years, the latest being a “harmonization” tax that has been under negotiation for three years. A recent agreement between the member states may clear the way for it to be in place by the end of 2002. Other measures awaiting approval by member states are an emission trading scheme, and renewable energy and energy efficiency requirements (BNA Daily Environment Report, April 30, 2002).

Wind Power Meets Air Power

Five planned offshore wind power projects in the United Kingdom have run into a difficult snag. The Ministry of Defense has decided that the projects would interfere with military flights and radar. According to the British Wind Energy Association, if the Ministry of Defense successfully blocks the wind projects, then it would have a serious impact on the countrys ability to meet its renewable energy goals.

“If they are built, the 18 sites would provide more than one percent of the U.K. electricity supply,” said BWEA communications chief Alison Hill. “The governments own legal requirement is that 10 percent of its electricity is from renewable energy by 2010. It is widely expected that wind power and offshore will provide half of that.”

BWEA claims that by applying radar-reflective paint the projects will pose no problem for the military (Reuters, April 24, 2002).

Studies Find More Model Weaknesses; No Global Warming in Alaska

by William Yeatman on February 5, 2002

in Science

Studies Find More Model Weaknesses

Two studies appearing in the February 1 issue of Science give further evidence that climate models are still wholly inadequate to predict future climate change. Using satellite data from the last two decades, a team of researchers led by Bruce A. Wielicki with NASAs Langley Research Center found that, “The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) tropical radiative energy budget is much more dynamic and variable than previously thought.”

The study explains that, “Earths climate system is driven by a radiative energy balance between the solar or shortwave radiation absorbed by Earth and the thermal infrared or longwave radiation emitted back to space.” For the Earths climate to remain unchanged, this energy budget must equal zero. “The TOA radiation budget,” says the study, “is crucial in determining climate variability and feedbacks.” It also provides a rigorous test of the ability of climate models to represent the atmospheres physical processes.

The data show that there was a drop in longwave radiation of about 2 W/m2 (watts per square meter) from the late 1970s to the mid 1980s followed by a rise of about 4 W/m2 from the mid 1980s to the late 1990s. “Because radiative forcings of 1 W/m2 or less are important for climate change prediction, natural variability of 4 W/m2 in the longwave part of the tropical radiation budget is considered a major change.”

The researchers argue that this is not likely due to global warming since, “The flux changes are far too large to be explained by the small surface and atmosphere warming over this time period, which will tend to be offset by increased CO2 and water vapor greenhouse gas trapping.”

More importantly, however, “These changes are sufficiently large that, in principle, they should be seen in climate model predictions.” The researchers tested five different models, including the well known Hadley Centre and National Center for Atmospheric Research models. They found that “There is remarkably little variation in the tropical mean fluxes from the models when compared to the data.”

The other study attempts to answer the question of whether the changes observed in the satellite data in the Earths radiative balance over the last two decades are the result of natural variability or manmade global warming. The researchers, Junye Chen, Barbara E. Carlson, and Anthony D. Del Genio, with NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies, found that the “Earth has been radiating more heat and reflecting less sunlight in the region from 30 degrees S to 30 degrees N over the past decade, the net result being more energy leaving the tropics.”

This change is due to a strengthening of two different tropical circulations known as the Hadley cell and the Walker cell. “Equatorial convective regions,” say the researchers, “have intensified the upward motion and moistened, while both the equatorial and subtropical subsidence regions have become drier and less cloudy.”

So whats the upshot? “The possibility that lapse rates were decreasing instead [of increasing] before 1980 suggests that the observed intensification of the Hadley-Walker cell may be due to natural variability on decadal or longer time scales rather than to a forced climate change.”

No Global Warming in Alaska

In 2001, the U.S. National Assessment on climate change concluded that Alaska would warm between 5 and 18 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. It further claimed that Alaska has already experienced an average “4 degrees F warming since the 1950s.”

This claim is highly misleading, according to Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. In an article appearing on Tech Central Station (www.techcentralstation.com, January 22, 2002), the two scientists explain that the apparent warming in Alaska is due to an entirely natural phenomenon.

The National Assessment stated, “Much of the recent warming occurred suddenly around 1977, coincident with the most recent of the large-scale Arctic atmosphere and ocean regime shifts.” What the report failed to mention, however, is that the global circulation models it used to make its predictions show a gradual warming due to higher concentrations of carbon dioxide, not sudden jumps.

The cause of the 1977 climate jump was a phenomenon known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. As explained by Baliunas and Soon, “The Pacific Ocean temperature changes naturally on multiple time scales. The major pattern in the northern Pacific Ocean is for it to hold at a low average temperature for roughly 20 to 30 years, and then to suddenly shift upward, where it remains for some decades. Then it shifts back down again.”

This is a pattern that has been directly measured for the last 100 years. The pattern has also been observed in temperature data derived from tree rings, and reaches back at least 1,000 years. Moreover, a look at the temperature data in Alaska after 1977 shows that 22 of the 30 locations from which Alaskas temperature is measured have experienced “either no warming or a significant cooling trend.”

Bush Team Developing Kyoto Alternatives; Japan and U. S. will Talk

by William Yeatman on August 21, 2001

in Politics

Bush Team Developing Kyoto Alternatives

The Bush Administration is in the process of developing domestic alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol to present to UN climate negotiators at their November meeting in Marrakech, according to the Wall Street Journal (August 20, 2001).

The article by Jeanne Cummings reports that President Bushs proposals will involve a number of domestic initiatives, including additional funding for research on the causes of global climate change, for technologies to sequester carbon dioxide, and to study the regional impact of global warming.

Bushs adoption of a domestic plan is viewed by many as a response to criticism he has received from Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D, SD) and House Democratic leader Richard Gephart (D, MO). In a recent speech at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Daschle addressed Bushs refusal to negotiate at the UNs recent climate talks in Bonn: “Instead of asserting our leadership, we are abdicating it. Instead of shaping international agreements to serve our interests, we have removed ourselves from a position to shape them at all.”

White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card said recently on NBC’s Meet the Press: “I’m optimistic that we’ll have initiatives that we can go to Marrakesh and talk about with the world leaders that will show that we’re serious about solving the problem [and] that the Kyoto solution is really not a solution at all.”

President Bush has a cabinet-level task force working on the global warming issue. The task force, which met the week before Congress went on recess and included Sen. Chuck Hagel (R, Neb.) and Rep. Billy Tauzin (R, La.), gave the President positive feedback on his domestic alternatives, Card said.

Japan and U. S. will Talk

The governments of Japan and the United States have agreed to hold ministerial talks on the Kyoto Protocol in late September. According to Yomiuri Shimbun (August 6, 2001), the Japanese delegation will try to persuade the U. S. either to rejoin the protocol or to present an alternative international agreement at COP-7 in Marrakesh beginning on October 28.

CNN reported on August 9 that Japanese officials are now leaning toward ratifying Kyoto with or without U. S. participation. The Japanese government has wavered over what to do ever since the Bush administration walked away from Kyoto in March.

According to CNN, a Japanese Foreign Ministry official said that, “It isnt the United States we are concerned about. [The problem] is the details of the treaty, which have not been decided.” Another official added, “We have to know what we will be ratifying, and we were unable to draw out such details at Bonn.”

Rainfall Variability Caused by Nature; Schneider Criticizes IPCC; CO2s Positive Effects Confirmed

by William Yeatman on May 15, 2001

in Science

Rainfall Variability Caused by Nature

One of the most widely cited “evidences” of global warming is the increase in “torrential” rainfall in the United States. A paper by Tom Karl of the National Climate Data Center, which appeared in 1995 in Nature magazine, had found a positive trend in heavy precipitation for much of the U.S., Canada and Europe in the last century. Specifically, Karls study found one additional day every two years that experiences rainfall of over 2 inches in a 24-hour period, but no increase in precipitation events of over 3 inches. Not much to get excited about.

A new study, which complicates the ability to link global warming and rainfall, appears in the May issue of Geophysical Research Letters. The researchers discovered a natural 65-80 year cycle in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. Using sea surface temperatures from 1856 to 1999, they found a temperature fluctuation of 0.4 degrees C, which they dubbed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

The warm phases occurred during 1860 to 1880 and 1940 to 1960 and the cool phases during 1905 to 1925 and 1970 to 1990. During the warm periods, the U.S. sees less than normal rainfall. We are currently in a warm period, which could mean “We may have once again entered a period such as 1930-1960,” said the studys lead author, David B. Enfield when the U.S. climate was much drier (Associated Press, May 14, 2001).

Enfield, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, said that this ocean cycle “could obfuscate our assessment of global warming response.”

Schneider Criticizes IPCC

Global warming projections coming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had been steadily decreasing with each new iteration of its assessment report, suggesting that the more we learn about climate the less likely global warming will be a problem. The release of the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCCs Third Assessment Report shocked everyone by raising projections from a 1 to 3.5 degree C warming over the next 100 years to 1.4 to 5.8 degrees.

The new projections raised a lot of eyebrows, given that there has been no real change in scientific evidence or in our ability to detect manmade global warming. One of those who have expressed concerns over the presentation of the new scenarios is Stephen Schneider, a major booster of catastrophic global warming theory.

Schneider points out in an article in Nature (May 3, 2001), that “This sweeping revision depends on two factors that were not the handiwork of the modelers: smaller projected emissions of climate-cooling aerosols; and a few predictions containing particularly large CO2 increases.”

Schneider asks, “How likely is it that the world will get 6 degrees C hotter by 2100?” That “depends on the likelihood of the assumptions underlying the projections.” According to Schneider, “the IPCC decided to prepare a special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) to produce a family of updated projections.” The group that met to make up these scenarios included academic scientists, environmental organizations, industrial scientists, engineers, economists, and systems analysts.

They decided to “create storylines about future worlds from which population, affluence and technology drivers could be inferred.” These storylines “gave rise to radically different families of emission profiles up to 2100 from below current CO2 emissions to five times current emissions,” wrote Schneider.

Schneider says that he “strongly argued at the time that policy analysts needed probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the implied impacts,” but the group decided to express “no preference” for each scenario. The result has been the assumption that the higher bound is just as likely as the lower. “But this inference would be incorrect,” said Schneider, “because uncertainties compound through a series of modeling steps. Uncertainties in emissions scenarios feed into uncertainties in carbon-cycle modeling, which feed into uncertainties in climate modeling, which drive an even larger range of uncertain climate impacts. This cascade of uncertainties is compounded by the very wide range of emissions offered by the SRES authors.”

To get the final “dramatic revision upward in the IPCCs third assessment,” it combined the climate sensitivities of seven general circulation models (GCMs) with the “six illustrative scenarios from the special report” within a simple model to get 40 climate scenarios.

Schneider attempts to construct a probability distribution of these different temperature scenarios, finding that only 39 percent show a warming of 3.5 degrees or higher. Under a more comprehensive range of 108 scenarios using 18 GCMs, only 23 percent would result in a warming of over 3.5 degrees. Schneider “arbitrarily” assumes that temperature increases of 3.5 degrees C and over would have dangerous climate consequences.

Schneiders calculations broadly agree with an MIT study we reported on in our April 18 issue. It found that there is a “far less” than one percent chance that temperatures would rise to 5.8 degrees C or higher, the upper bound of the IPCCs projections, while there is a 17 percent chance the temperature rise would be lower than 1.4 degrees, the IPCCs lower bound.

CO2s Positive Effects Confirmed

Thousands of studies have been conducted to determine the effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on plant growth. The overwhelming weight of evidence is that higher levels of CO2 increase plant growth. More recently scientists have looked into effects of higher CO2 concentrations on the quality, not just the quantity, of the food supply.

To get to the bottom of this research, Sherwood Idso of the U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory and Keith Idso of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change have reviewed over 250 peer-reviewed studies (Environmental and Experimental Botany, 45, 2001). They find “that the ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content will continue to increase food production around the world, while maintaining the nutritive quality of that food and enhancing the production of certain disease-inhibiting plant compounds.”

Some research had suggested that CO2 induced growth lowers nitrogen and protein concentrations in plants, possibly having a deleterious effect on animal and insect herbivores. But, said the Idsos, “Few solid conclusions can be drawn, however, in light of the fact that many CO2 enrichment studies have not detected significant reductions in foliage nitrogen or protein concentrations.”

Moreover, “Nitrogen concentrations of all plants decline in response to increasing plant biomass, irrespective of the cause of the biomass increase.” This result is “highly dependent on nitrogen supply and virtually disappears when nitrogen is freely available to the roots.”

The paper looks at several other components of plant quality in relation to animal and human health and finds that higher CO2 concentrations do not have a harmful effect and in many cases has a beneficial effect.

Etc.

  • On June 19, 2001 Barrow, Alaska experienced a rare thunderstorm. The National Weather Service noted in a public advisory statement that it was only the third thunderstorm to occur in Barrow since 1978. From that point on, the story took on a life of its own. News stories around the world reported that it was Barrows first ever thunderstorm and that it signaled the arrival of global warming.

On May 2, the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee held a hearing on global warming. In his opening remarks, Senator Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) said that global warming has already revealed itself in Alaska. He said that several communities along Alaskas Arctic coast, including Barrow, would need to be relocated due to rising seas. The May 5 Nando Times story which reported on Stevenss comments again stated, “Last June, Barrow experienced its first-ever thunderstorm.”

John Daly (www.john-daly.com) decided to look into these claims of rising seas and relocations. As it turns out, there is a tide gauge 200 miles from Prudhoe Bay along the same stretch of coastline as Barrow. The tide gauge measurements show no increase in sea levels along Alaskas Arctic coast. The inundation of certain Alaskan villages is due to coastal erosion, not sea level rise. It also turns out that there are no plans to relocate Barrow as Senator Stevens claimed.

Announcements

  • The Competitive Enterprise Institute has released a report on several new global warming studies published since the final draft of the IPCCs Third Assessment Report was approved in August 2000. The report, “Latest Global Warming Report Already Obsolete,” by CEI environmental policy analyst Paul Georgia, concludes that these new studies cast serious doubt on some of the IPCCs most basic assumptions, leaving its conclusions in shambles. The report can be obtained at www.cei.org.

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