Cooler Heads Briefing Faults “Early Action”
On February 22 the Cooler Heads Coalition sponsored an economic briefing for congressional staff and media. The briefing, which featured Marlo Lewis of the Competitive Enterprise Institute and Mark Mills of Mills, McCarthy & Associates, discussed the Mack-Chafee “Credit for Early Action” plan.
Lewis discussed the political problems with the bill. He explained that the bill would create winners and losers within the business community. Those who earn early credits will do so at the expense of those who are unable to. The bill will also create a pro-Kyoto constituency among the winners since their credits would be worthless unless the Kyoto Protocol is ratified.
Mills argued that “early action” on emission reductions is a nonstarter because you cant do it, it wouldnt work, and it wont matter. Mills maintains that currently fossil fuels supply 85 percent of the U.S. energy supply and is forecast to reach “90 percent of all increases in energy supply vital to a growing economy.” Substantial reductions in fossil fuel use would depress the U.S. economy.
Mills argues that “early action” would not work. It would require a “vast bureaucracy to track, validate and regulate the millions of existing and prospective activities of the entire market that uses $500 billion in energy annually.” Most energy use in the U.S. is in the form of electricity. Restricting electricity use, says Mills, would “threaten the entire technological infrastructure of the new information economy that is almost exclusively electrically-fueled.”
Finally, Mills argues that even if we could do it and it did work, it wouldnt matter. Even if we burned all available fossil fuel in the next twenty years, “the net result would not significantly change the future atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide.”
Kyoto Cant be Met With Current Technology
The Clinton Administration has based much of its Kyoto-will-be-painless argument on the claim that the energy efficient technology needed to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions is already on the shelf and just needs to be installed. A new study by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), however, takes issue with that claim.
According to the report “the time frame proposed by the Protocol will not be sufficient to accommodate the enormous investment of R&D and human resources needed to meet the carbon emission reduction goals.” To meet the goal the U.S. would need to reduce its carbon emissions by 551 million metric tons (MMT). But, says the report, “maximum utilization of currently available technologies might result in a reduction of carbon emissions by an estimated 79 to 164 MMT by 2008-2012 time frame.”
The report evaluates several possible technologies that may be helpful in reducing carbon emissions, and finds that most are either nonviable or would have minimal impact on U.S. emissions. The federal government, for instance, has been heavily involved in the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles that would use fuel cells as a power source for transportation. The ASME argues that “it is not yet clear that fuel cells will be developed for commercialization by 2008/2012. A massive infusion of R&D funding would be needed to make this happen.”
“Commercial air travel,” according to the report, “is the second largest and fastest growing transportation subsector.” It is also the most dependent on petroleum. The report states that replacements for kerosene jet fuel are still “many decades away.” The Clinton Administration has also claimed that household electrical appliances is another sources for potentially large energy efficiency improvements. It has proposed new energy efficiency standards as part of its plan to reduce carbon emissions. According to ASME, however, “much of the technology for residential heating, cooling, hot water, and refrigeration equipment is reaching its theoretical limit or can only be increased at a significant cost.”
Energy supplied by biomass is highly favored by the Greens. But biomass requires massive amounts of land to produce the necessary fuel. The report points out that to fuel a 2600 MW plant at a 65 percent capacity factor “would require one half of the State of Ohios available farmland and forests.” The maximum amount of energy that could be produced from biomass would be about 210 billion KWH per year or about 3 percent of the total amount of energy demand projected for 2010. Wind power is also expected to contribute a maximum of about 2 to 3 percent of total electricity needs.
What, according to the ASME, would be required to meet the Kyoto target? A massive reduction in the use of coal from 50 percent of energy mix to 15 percent in 2010 and zero percent by 2030. An increase in the use of natural gas from 11 percent to 56 percent. The report also argues that “the nuclear option must be included in any long-term strategy for the reduction of carbon emissions.”
Kyoto Will Cost Agriculture Billions
Last week we reported that a recent Pew Center on Climate Change study claimed that global warming would have little effect on U.S. agriculture. A new study, sponsored by five national agriculture organizations, the American Farm Bureau Federation, American Corn Growers Association, National Cattlemans Beef Association, National Grange and United Fresh Fruit and Vegetables Association, shows that global warming policy under the Kyoto Protocol will do severe damage to U.S. agriculture.
According to the study by Sparks Companies, Inc., an agriculture consulting firm, agriculture costs could increase by 8.8 percent or $16.2 billion. The study also shows that the compliane with the treaty would boost gasoline prices by 29.5 percent by the year 2010, electricity by 54 percent, and natural gas by 110.9 percent. The study also claims that American farmers would be faced with lowered demand for their goods because they would be forced to compete with farmers in countries that are not bound by the treaty. This could lead to a reduction in farm income of more than 50 percent.
“The impact of the treaty would be a financial last straw for many family farms,” said Dean Kleckner, President of the AFBF. “The Clinton Administration has committed to a flawed treaty without releasing its own analysis of the impact the protocol would have on U.S. agriculture. Meanwhile, agriculture has completed three studies, all of which show devastating financial consequences for farmers and ranchers” (Topeka Capital Journal, February 23, 1999).