Global Warming Will Not Raise Sea Level
On September 24, Dr. Fred Singer, president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project, discussed the likelihood that sea level would rise due to global warming at a Cooler Heads Coalition science briefing for congressional staff and media.
Dr. Singer does not doubt that sea level has risen by about 18 cm over the last century. The most recent IPCC report finds that a little less than half of that rise can be accounted for by thermal expansion of the ocean and glacial melting. Moreover, an increase of ice accumulation over the Antarctic, as expected from warmer temperatures, reduces the rate of sea level rise. This leads Dr. Singer to conclude that most if not the entire sea level rise experienced over the last century is due to factors other than climate variations. Singer concludes that the rise is due to the long-term warming that began at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum.
Dr. Singer has also found that over shorter time scales there is an inverse relationship between global temperature and sea level rise. That is, as temperature increases sea levels fall. This is due to sea surface evaporation that transports moisture to the polar ice caps, expanding the amount of water locked up in ice at the poles. According to Dr. Singer, any warming that may occur due to human influences will slow down rather than speed up sea level rise over decades.
Over thousands of years, sea level will continue to rise at a rate of approximately 18 cm per year until the next ice age begins. The paper upon which Dr. Singers lecture was based can be found at www.sepp.org.
IPCC: Hedging Its Bets
Citing the futures unpredictability, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will not forecast a “best guess” scenario for greenhouse gas emissions for the next century. “There can be no best guess,” according to the draft special report released by the IPCC. “The future is inherently unpredictable and views will differ on which of the scenarios could be more likely.”
The report gives a range of possible CO2 emission scenarios from five times todays levels or 36.7 billion tons by 2100 to 4.3 billion tons, slightly lower than todays levels. There are 40 scenarios in all, based on four different sets of assumptions about population, economic growth and technological advances. The main forecasts, for each set of assumptions, range from 6 billion tons to 29 billion tons. The report “extends the range significantly towards higher emissions,” more so than the previous IPCC report (New Scientist, September 18, 1999).
Hurricane Floyd in the Press
Although Hurricane Floyd spawned its share of over-hyped press, the aftermath has been fairly balanced. The September 27, 1999 issues of three major newsmagazines, Time, Newsweek, and U.S. News & World Report all carried stories about Hurricane Floyd. Although each story raised the issue of global warming, they also discussed at length the fact that the current upswing in hurricane activity is due to natural, rather than manmade conditions.
The Time article claimed that global warming could increase ocean temperatures, leading to more intense hurricanes. Each one degree Fahrenheit rise in ocean temperature will increase hurricane wind speeds by 5 mph. This means that with global warming wind speeds could reach 200 mph. The North Atlantic is unusually warm this fall, and accounts for the peak size and strength reached by Floyd.
According to David Enfield, a researcher at the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, there appears to be an upward trend in North Atlantic Ocean temperatures. “Like other oceanographers, Enfield believes this is the result of a natural climate shift, as opposed to human-induced global warming,” said Time.
According to Time, Roger Pielke, Jr., with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, says “its really not necessary to concoct ways to make hurricanes any more threatening than they already are. With or without global warming, there are going to be some whoppers in our future, and unlike Floyd, many of these will prove to be megadisasters. For the days when a big hurricane could make landfall in sparsely populated places are fast disappearingand that alone is cause enough for worry.”
All three magazines agree that global warming has little to do with current hurricane conditions. According to U.S. News & World Report, “Researchers do not yet know what might cause these long-term fluctuations, but they dont believe global warming is the culprit.” The Newsweek story discusses conditions under which hurricane activity could both increase or decrease in the event of global warming.
Perhaps most disappointing is a story that appeared in Time for Kids (September 24, 1999). The story treats Floyd as if it were as big as its pre-landfalling hype, referring to it as “Monstrous Hurricane Floyd, a 600-mile-wide superstorm.” The story noted that, “Many meterologists saw its incredible size and stength as proof that we are in an era of stronger and more frequent hurricane.” The article gives considerable more weight to theories that global warming is to blame than did its counterpart in Time for adults.