Assessing the National Assessment
The U.S. Global Climate Research Program is about to release its National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Change. One of the technical reviewers, David Wojick, president of ClimateChangeDebate.Org, has written his own assessment of the National Assessment.
Wojick notes that the release of the report seems to be timed for maximum political impact. Even though the USGCRP is required to make a report every four years, it has not done so since its formation in 1990. Only now, during an election year when one of the presidential candidates is known for his strong pro-global warming views, is the USGCRP making its voice heard.
This is also the year that the sixth conference of the parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will meet to finalize negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol. The National Assessment will put pressure on the U.S. Senate to ratify whatever comes out of those negotiations.
Wojick also argues that the two climate models used in the report “consistently give extreme forecasts,” relative to the “available dozen or so global climate models.” This problem extends beyond global average temperatures, says Wojick. “Regional variability, the occurrences
of extreme events, and other climate change variables are also exaggerated in these models.”
The report also exaggerates future emissions scenarios. “While technically there is no such thing as a worst case emissions scenario, theirs is among the most extreme the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ever considered,” says Wojick. “In fact the IPCC has subsequently abandoned forecasting emissions scenarios, because the technology of energy production over the next 100 years is completely unpredictable.”
Finally, Wojick notes that the National Assessment report glosses over or ignores the potential benefits of global warming “many of which are discussed in the underlying studies.” For example, “The models predict that over half of the present desert land in the Southwest will become agriculturally productive without irrigation, due to increased precipitation. This fact is not even mentioned as a potential benefit,” says Wojick.
Some Utilities Trying to Revive Early Credits Legislation
Faced with hundreds of billions of dollars in added costs from the Environmental Protection Agencys proposed New Source Review regulations, the Edison Electric Institute and several major member companies have started lobbying key members of Congress to revive Kyoto early action credits legislation. Apparently, some utilities have decided that if they fail to stop New Source Review, then they should find some way to benefit financially.
A number of meetings between top EEI officials and members of Congress have been reported. Sen. Bob Smith (R-NH), chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, has apparently been encouraged to revive the early action credits bill sponsored by Smiths predecessor as chairman, the late Sen. John Chafee (R-RI).
Few details have emerged, but it is clear that EEIs gambit is opposed by many of its member companies. These companies understand that early action credits makes implementation of the Kyoto Protocol inevitable (Energy Daily, April 4, 2000).
Greenpeace, BP-Amoco Clash Again
Despite green rhetoric and obeisance to global warming by its CEO, Sir John Browne, BP-Amoco is increasingly under attack from environmentalists and Greenpeace in particular.
At BPs annual shareholders meeting on April 13, Greenpeace an a coalition of “socially responsible” investors headed by Trillium Asset Management introduced a resolution calling on BP to stop its $600 million Northstar field in the Arctic Ocean of Alaska and to redirect the money to solar energy development.
The resolution further directed BP to cease lobbying to open ANWR to oil exploration and to cease all further exploration in Alaskas North Slope.
Thirteen percent of proxy votes cast, representing about 7 percent of the total share register, were in favor of the resolution, a stunning result for a nuisance resolution. Previous similar shareholders resolutions have received only 1 or 2 percent.
Greenpeace representatives were ecstatic. “Im shocked and Im very pleased,” said Matthew Spencer of Greenpeace. “Its unprecedented. Theres never been that level of support for an environmental resolution this side or the other side of the Atlantic . Following this vote they (the board) are going to have to come back with a plan.”
Sir John Browne responded by saying that BP is “the worlds largest solar company,” and is expanding its solar business rapidly (World Wire, April 13, 2000).
Nothing NOVA Under the Sun
PBS vehicles NOVA and Frontline, whose “balance” typically extends to well-timed sops to Congressional critics, garnered advance plaudits for their evenhanded look at global warming, “Whats up with the weather?” Even the Washington Post assigned a reporter either ultimately swayed by the absence of malice or truly coming to the party with no preset agenda. His Style-page preview promised low-level teeth gnashing for Cooler Heads opting to tune in.
While NOVA/Frontline dropped enough hints to terrify any fool into commuting to a World Bank riot by bicycle, the show did not directly answer its own question: Whats up with the weather? The program included the requisite video cavalcade of severe weather juxtaposed with expressions of economic concern.
The surface temperature record sufficed as the ultimate arbiter of climatic trends without any discourse on its serious shortcomings. Temperatures and precipitation “different than normal” were presented as persuasive evidence that man is warming the planet. And dissenters were presented as “a small band” of unenlightened “skeptics,” though their ranks were ably represented by Fred Singer, Richard Lindzen, Fred Palmer and others.
Alarming temperature projections extrapolated from a select past few years predicted Venus on the Potomac. Then came red heat lines emanating from a depiction of the earths surface, closely resembling a barbecue. Photojournalistic balance neither preceded nor followed. “Industry science” was presented as such, with no mention of the tremendous boodle enticing Warmer scientists. Apologies for the weakness of models were allowed, but not the blistering assessment they deserve.
While the show came down on the side that mankind is causing global warming, it took a surprisingly critical look at possible solutions. With nuclear power and even hydropower ruled out by environmentalists, there arent any practical alternatives to fossil fuels in the short run.
Also made clear was the fact that if India, China, and other developing countries are going to advance economically, then they are going to have to burn a lot more coal and oil.
Australian Minister Calls For Compliance With Kyoto
Calling the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions “inevitable,” Australias Federal Minister for the Environment, Robert Hill told an audience at a conference in Sydney that defeating Kyoto now would only lead to harsher emission reduction targets in the future. “There, of course, would be no guarantee that this new process would take into account our national circumstances in the way we were able to achieve in Kyoto.
“There is likely to be an ever-increasing demand for governments around the world, and the people they represent, to take action,” said Hill. “And the science which has driven this global call for action is becoming more certain, rather than less certain” (Sydney Morning Herald, March 31, 2000).