Bush Offers Lukewarm Plan
President George W. Bush outlined his Global Climate Change and Clear Skies Initiatives in a speech on February 14 at the NOAA Science Center in Silver Spring, Maryland. The bulk of the climate plan is warmed-over policies from the Clinton Administration, but with a few significant new twists and considerably more federal funding, while the Clear Skies plan would require cuts in three major air pollutants of approximately 70% by 2018.
Bush set a goal of reducing greenhouse gas intensity by 18% by 2012. This translates into producing one million dollars of economic output per 151 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions (or equivalent) compared to 183 metric tons today.
This voluntary goal appears to be achievable on current trends. Reducing carbon intensity by 18% over the next decade would be one-fifth more than the 15% reduction in the 1990s.
Bush called for a major review of progress in 2012, that is, several years after he leaves office, and said that at that time mandatory emissions reductions may be appropriate. The promise, or implied threat, of future mandatory limits makes workable a major feature of the presidents planawarding tradeable credits for emissions reductions made voluntarily now.
According to the White Houses Fact Sheet, “The President will direct the Secretary of Energy to recommend reforms to: (1) ensure that businesses that register voluntary reductions will not be penalized under a future climate policy; and (2) give credit to companies that can show real emissions reductions.”
It appears that the motive for creating and buying these “early action credits” is the prospect that they will have value once the scheme is made mandatory. As part of this effort, the president also directed Secretary Abraham to improve the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Sequestration Registry in unspecified ways. The Global Climate Change Initiative calls for higher federal funding for the whole range of climate programs, domestic and international. Most notable, perhaps, is $4.6 billion over five years for tax incentives for renewable energy, cogeneration, and purchasing hybrid and fuel cell vehicles. Possible higher CAFE standards are also mentioned.
Much of the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions may come from the Clear Skies Initiative. The large cuts proposed for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury may force utilities to close some of their coal-fired power plants. A cap-and-trade program is proposed for the three pollutants.
Reaction is Two Thumbs Down
Initial reaction to President Bushs new global warming package was almost uniformly negative from environmental groups, conservative groups, major newspapers and networks, and world leaders. Several industry trade associations and the Australian and Japanese governments reacted at least mildly favorably.
From abroad, German Environment Minister Juergen Trittin called the plan “disappointing,” according to Reuters (February 18, 2002). “The goal has to remain to re-integrate the worlds biggest polluter into this system. The door should not be closed to an eventual U.S. return to the Kyoto framework,” Trittin said. British Environment Minister Michael Meacher judged that the European Union would not be “satisfied” by Bushs plan (Reuters, February 18).
At a United Nations environmental conference in Cartagena, Colombia, officials from many nations demanded more action from the U.S. Among these was Canadian Environment Minister David Anderson (Reuters, February 18), who noted the serious effects that global warming was already having on Canadas northern regions.
In Japan, the official reaction from the new Environment Minister, Hiroshi Oki, was initially critical, but that changed as soon as President Bush landed in Tokyo. At a joint press conference with Bush, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said that, “The United States has come up with a very positive proposal (Reuters, February 19).
Australian Prime Minister John Howard clearly views Bushs program as offering a way out of Kyoto for Australia. He said, “Our positionis much closer to that of the United States than the attitude of the European countries. I do think that what the president indicates in his speech will lead to an alternative to simply saying no to the Kyoto Protocol, and I welcome that” (Reuters, February 18).
At home, Sierra Club executive director Carl Pope said, “Unfortunately, the Bush Administration is using Valentines Day to give a sweetheart deal to the corporate polluters that funded his campaign.” Jennifer Morgan, director of the World Wildlife Funds Climate Change Campaign, accused the President of delivering “a Valentines day present for the coal and oil industry.”
Conservative groups were a little more original in their comments, but no less critical. For example, Consumer Alert wrote that, “The President’s plan would undermine the very economic growth which, as he has pointed out, facilitates the advances that lead to cleaner air and more efficient technologies. Starving the US economy of energy, whether it’s called Kyoto or something else, will only harm consumers.”
Among many editorials criticizing the plan, the Washington Post wrote that, “There was more air than substance in the global warming policy President Bush outlined last week, a disappointing program that aims too low, asks too little and waits too long to assess the need for tougher action.”
On the other side of the political spectrum, James Glassman in the Wall Street Journal (February 14, 2002), wrote that Bushs “new position on global warming is clearly a disingenuous attempt to appear concerned about the environment for the sake of empty plaudits from domestic and foreign audiences. It hurts his credibility, and, frankly it wont work because the opposition wont buy it.”
On February 14, ABC News provided plenty of air time to environmental critics of the plan, quoting extensively an e-mail from former Vice President Al Gore.
The Houston Chronicle (February 15, 2002) pulled out the heavy guns, quoting several scientists who claim that Bushs plan falls well short of what is needed to stop global warming. “I think this thing (global warming) is very serious and government must get serious about doing something about it,” said Gerald North, head of the department of meteorology at Texas A&M. “We need to be more serious than a voluntary program.”
Canada Still Hesitant to Ratify Kyoto
The Canadian government insists that it still wishes to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, but must consult with the provinces first (Reuters, February 20, 2002).
“Thats what we have to do before we make a decision to ratify,” said Environment Minister David Anderson. Nine of the ten provincial premiers signed a letter to the Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien, expressing reservations about the wisdom of ratifying the treaty.
“We are concerned that ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and Canadas response to climate change could impact competitiveness and, in turn, employment, economic growth and investment opportunities across Canada,” said the letter.
Although the provinces do not have veto power over whether to ratify Kyoto, it would present a dilemma if they were opposed to it. “Thats a decision well have to come to,” said Natural Resources Minister, Herb Dhaliwal.
Anderson made it clear, however, that Canada would not consider complying with the treaty without ratifying it.