Rises in Precipitation not due to Greenhouse Gases
Two new studies suggest that the increases in storminess and rainfall that have been measured in the U.S. may be due to causes other than anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. One study in the October 24 issue of Nature looks at natural variability in the northeastern United States and finds that storminess in that region varies over regular cycles.
The study took core samples from 13 small lakes in Vermont and eastern New York with steep surrounding hillslopes, deep water and inflowing streams with sandy deltas. These characteristics allowed the researchers to get a high resolution data set. What they found was that the “frequency of storm related floods in the northeastern United States has varied in regular cycles during the past 13,000 years (13 kyr), with a characteristic period of about 3 kyr.” During that period there were four peaks in storm frequency; 2,600 years, 5,800 years, 9,100 years and 11,900 year ago.
These findings are supported by other independent records from the North Atlantic. In particular, data from central Greenland ice cores correspond very well with the New England data. What this suggests, according to the study, is “control of both by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns,” which in turn correlates “with the characteristic patterns of sea level pressure associated with the Arctic Oscillation.”
The study argues that, “The existence of natural variability in storminess confounds reliable detection of anthropogenic effects.” It also notes that, “During the past ~600 yr, New England storminess appears to have been increasing naturally,” and that if this pattern continues it “would continue to increase for the next ~900 yr.” It concludes, “Because climate synopses compiled from instrumental records cannot distinguish underlying natural increases in storminess from anthropogenic effects, detected increases in contemporary storminess may not be a reliable indicator of human-induced climate change.”
Another study in the Journal of Applied Meteorology does find an anthropogenic component to increased rainfall, but not due to greenhouse gases, but rather due to urbanization. Using satellite data, the researchers found that rainfall rates are enhanced 20 to 40 miles downwind from city centers. Compared to upwind areas, rainfall rates were between 48 and 116 percent greater. The cause is greater heat generated from cities compared to natural landscapes. The rising warm air contributes to thunderstorm development, which then releases its moisture downwind. These two studies may well account for the increased precipitation in the United States over the last century.
Apparent increase in Antarctic Icebergs due to Better Detection
A new study in the current issue of EOS Transactions, a publication of the American Geophysical Union, says that there has been no increase in the number of large Antarctic icebergs as has been reported. “The dramatic increase in the number of large icebergs as recorded by the National Ice Center database does not represent a climatic change,” said Brigham Young University electrical engineering professor David Long. “Our reanalysis suggests that the number of icebergs remained roughly constant from 1978 to the late 1990s.”
Long and his student assistants developed a computer processing technique to increase the sharpness of the images collected from NASA satellites. The satellites employed a “scatterometer” that was used to measure wind speed and direction by bouncing radar beams off the ocean floor. The resolution of the images wasnt good enough to detect icebergs. Longs innovation makes it possible to determine accurately the number of icebergs.
“Dr. Longs analysis shows that the increase is only an apparent increase, and that it is premature to think of any connection between this kind of iceberg (growth) and global warming,” said Douglas MacAyeal, a University of Chicago glaciologist who tracks icebergs. “His research, particularly his amazing ability to detect and track icebergs, is really the best method,” to determine iceberg activity.