Urban Heat Island Effect Still an Issue
British scientist Phillip Stott reports on an intriguing new piece of research on his highly-recommended EnviroSpin Watch web log (http://greenspin.blogspot.com). Canadian researcher Dr. Ian G. McKendry (University of British Columbia) has compiled a progress report on the question of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect for the latest issue of Progress in Physical Geography: (PIPG 27[4], 2003, pp. 597-606).
Stott quotes him as saying that, “UHIs continue to present a problem for the detection of changes in the global surface temperature record (the so-called greenhouse effect). Typically the urban bias is removed from climate records on the basis of relatively simple regression models that utilize population size as an indicator of the urban excess…. Several studies have recently exploited long historic records to illustrate that such methods may not be sufficient to adequately correct for the urban bias.”
According to Stott, McKendry “further points out that recent studies have also begun to examine more closely the effects of UHI intensity on meteorological conditions, a topic first considered in 1951. Some of this new work indicates that the UHI effect may well be implicated in changes in both precipitation and storm patterns.”
Stott calls the article an “extremely well-referenced review.” McKendry concludes: “Recent studies suggest that attempts to remove the urban bias from long-term climate records (and hence identify the magnitude of the enhanced greenhouse effect) may be overly simplistic. This will likely continue to be a contentious issue in the climate change community.”
McIntyre and McKitrick Praised
The careful investigation of Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick into Michael Manns “hockey stick” data has received praise from sources not usually friendly to climate science skepticism.
Writing in Londons Observer (Dec. 7), influential British left-winger Will Hutton castigated the reception given to McIntyre and McKitricks paper, saying, “An important and neutral paper by Canadians Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick suggests that the best guess is that, while temperatures are currently rising, they probably lie within the range for the past 600 years. Environmentalists, just as in a battle over a new runway, are being as partisan in their use of science as their opponents.”
Meanwhile, University of California Berekeley physics professor Richard Muller, a long-time supporter of global warming alarmism, wrote in MITs Technology Review (Dec. 17), “Last months article by McIntyre and McKitrick raised pertinent questions. They had been given access (by Mann) to details of the work that were not publicly available. Independent analysis and (when possible) independent data sets are ultimately the arbiter of truth. This is precisely the way that science should, and usually does, proceed. Thats why Nobel Prizes are often awarded one to three decades after the work was completed — to avoid mistakes. Truth is not easy to find, but a slow process is the only one that works reliably.”
Muller continued, “It was unfortunate that many scientists endorsed the hockey stick before it could be subjected to the tedious review of time. Ironically, it appears that these scientists skipped the vetting precisely because the results were so important.”
More Fiddling with Paleoclimatology
There is further evidence for the existence of the Little Ice Age– in Europe at least — in new research on the history of violins, of all things. Two researchers believe they have found the answer in paleoclimatology to why Stradivariuss violins are so good.
The Associated Press reports (Dec. 8), “Grissino-Mayer at Tennessee and Dr. Lloyd Burckle at Columbia suggest a Little Ice Age that gripped Europe from the mid-1400s until the mid-1800s slowed tree growth and yielded uncommonly dense Alpine spruce for Antonio Stradivari and other famous 17th-century Italian violinmakers.
“The ice age reached its coldest point during a 70-year period from 1645-1715 known as the Maunder Minimum, which was named after the 19th century solar astronomer, E.W. Maunder, who documented a lack of solar activity during the period.
“Stradivari was born a year before the Maunder Minimum began, and he produced his most prized and valued stringed instruments as the period ended — his golden period from 1700-1720.
“We would suggest that the narrow tree rings that identify the Maunder Minimum in Europe played a role in the enhanced sound quality of instruments produced by the Cremona [Italy] violinmakers,” Grissino-Mayer and Burckle write, noting that “narrow tree rings would not only strengthen the violin but would increase the wood’s density.”
“The onset of the Maunder Minimum at a time when the skills of the Cremonese violinmakers reached their zenith perhaps made the difference in the violin’s tone and brilliance,” they conclude.
AGU Issues Statement on Climate Change
The American Geophysical Union has issued its long-awaited new position statement on climate change (available on the internet at http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/climate_change_position.html). The position paper is the usual blend of carefully-worded scientific platitudes used to back up alarmist rhetoric.
For instance, the statement says, “Model projections of future global warming vary, because of differing estimates of population growth, economic activity, greenhouse gas emission rates, changes in atmospheric particulate concentrations and their effects, and also because of uncertainties in climate models.” In other words, lots of non-scientific factors are essentially guesswork, compounding the scientific uncertainties.
The statement goes on to stress investment in “education of the next generation of climate scientists.” Could the AGU be worried that some scientists might not naturally incline towards study of climate science without the lure of research grants? Why ever not?
Announcements
Federal Government Seeks Contributors for IPCC Report
The following announcement appeared in the Federal Register on Dec. 12:
United States Climate Change Science Program
ACTION: Request U.S. nomination of experts for consideration as coordinating lead authors, lead authors, contributing authors, expert reviewers, and review editors for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
SUMMARY: The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis, the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC has three working groups: Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change; Working Group II assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it; and Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change. The IPCC provides scientific, technical, and socio-economic advice to the world community, and in particular to the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) through its periodic assessment reports and special reports. The IPCC has decided to continue to prepare comprehensive assessment reports and agreed to complete its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.
The U.S. Government has received a request from the IPCC to nominate experts for consideration as coordinating lead authors, lead authors, contributing authors, expert reviewers, and review editors for the different chapters and volumes of the Fourth Assessment Report.
Further information on this request — such as the IPCC request for nominations, the approved outlines of the three IPCC working groups for the AR4, a description of the roles and responsibilities associated with them, and a nomination form that must be completed for each nominee — may be found at either the IPCC Secretariat (http://www.ipcc.ch/ar4/nominations/nominations.htm) or CCSP (http://www.climatescience.gov)
DATES: Completed nomination forms for each nominee should be returned to the Climate Change Science Program Office (ipcc_nominations@usgcrp.gov) by noon Monday, January 5, 2004.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: David Allen, U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Suite 250, 1717 Pennsylvania Ave, NW., Washington, DC