Scientific Forecasters Pour Cold Water on Temperature Projections

by Iain Murray on September 18, 2007

Al Gore’s film, An Inconvenient Truth, has initiated something of a backlash as scientists, heretofore absent from the global warming debate, have begun to criticize Mr. Gore, and by extension, much of the underpinnings of the global warming hypothesis.
 
One such critic is Professor Scott Armstrong, a leading expert on forecasting with the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.  Professor Armstrong hasn’t just criticized Mr. Gore; he has put his money where his mouth is by challenging the former VP to a $10,000 bet, based on climate predictions.
 
On September 13, the Center for Science and Public Policy hosted a briefing where Professor Armstrong presented the findings of an audit he and his colleague, Professor Kesten Green with Monash University’s Business and Economic Forecasting Unit in New Zealand, conducted on Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s Working Group I report, The Physical Science Basis. 
 
As noted in the presentation, they found no evidence that the IPCC authors were aware of the primary sources of information on forecasting. Indeed, as Professor Armstrong stated, “We have been unable to find a single scientific forecast to support global warming.”
 
They also found that there was only enough information within the IPCC report to make a judgment on 89 of the total 140 forecasting principles as described in Professor Armstrong’s book, Principles of Forecasting.  Of these 89 principles, the IPCC violated 72.
 
The power point slides and video of the Professor Armstrong's presentation are available here.
Anonymous September 18, 2007 at 6:39 am

I rememder when i was a child,i was watching the telivision and on this day the president Eisenhower was on a one of the battle ships.there must have been a least fifty or more of these ships and he said that he was going to dump large drums of who knows what off of these ships in the deepest of our oceans.and said that i hope that the future generations will know what to do with the poisen i am putting in the oceans today.they will start leaking in fifty years.Well it's been fifty years and our would is poisened.I fell that i was the only one watching tv that day.I only wish i could something more for my planet meanings this is the only one that i know.

My name is not important I just hope it's not to late to do something about our cucumstances on our planet.

Anonymous December 17, 2008 at 8:20 pm

CompTIA Exams: n10-003, 220-602

Microsoft Exams: 70-291, 70-649

Cisco Exams: 642-456, 642-426, 640-553, 646-204, 642-383, 642-873

Lola September 27, 2007 at 1:46 pm

I am very happy to see that actual scientists, who do in fact know the facts, are getting in on the global warming debate. If I was a scientist who actually studied the climate and all kinds of untrained, unqualified people were spreading false information, I think that I would be fairly peeved and would want to interject. I hope to see more of this, the question is will the scientists be heard when Americans seem to be much more fascinated with the opinions of politicians and movie stars?

aaabs December 10, 2008 at 5:19 pm

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post: