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Post image for Six Reasons Not To Ban Energy Exports*

[* This column is a lightly edited version of my post earlier this week on National Journal's Energy Experts Blog.]

You know we’re deep into the silly season when ‘progressives’ champion reverse protectionism – banning exports – as a solution to America’s economic woes. Congress should reject proposals to ban exports of petroleum products and natural gas for at least six reasons.

(1) Export bans are confiscatory, a form of legal plunder.

As economist Richard Stroup has often pointed out, property rights achieve their full value only when they are “3-D”: defined, defendable, and divestible (transferable). A total ban on the sale (transfer) of property rights in petroleum products or natural gas would reduce the asset’s value to zero (assuming no black market and no prospect of the ban’s repeal). To the owner, the injury would be the same as outright confiscation. A ban on sales to foreign customers would be similarly injurious, albeit to a lesser degree.

The foregoing is so obvious one is entitled to assume that harming oil and gas companies is the point. I would simply remind ‘progressives’ that the politics of plunder endangers the social compact on which civil government depends. Why should others respect your rights when you seek to deprive them of theirs? Every act of legal pillage is precedent for further abuses of power. Do you really think your team will always hold the reins of power in Washington, DC? [click to continue…]

Post image for Oil Speculators Are the New Boogeymen

President Obama and his obedient lap dogs are out in full force this week attempting to convince voters that those evil guys on Wall Street have moved on from destroying the value of their homes to artificially raising the price of gasoline. Soon they are coming for your first born. From one of Obama’s speeches this week:

So today, we’re announcing new steps to strengthen oversight of energy markets.  Things that we can do administratively, we are doing.  And I call on Congress to pass a package of measures to crack down on illegal activity and hold accountable those who manipulate the market for private gain at the expense of millions of working families.  And be specific.

First, Congress should provide immediate funding to put more cops on the beat to monitor activity in energy markets.  This funding would also upgrade technology so that our surveillance and enforcement officers aren’t hamstrung by older and less sophisticated tools than the ones that traders are using.  We should strengthen protections for American consumers, not gut them.  And these markets have expanded significantly.

Now the ability to place blame for rising gasoline prices on Wall Street (or Republicans) is good politics, but its not true. The Center for American Progress report linked to above, chillingly titled “Is Big Oil Rigging Gasoline Prices?” begins by alerting the reader to the fact that the American people, having been polled, believe that Wall Street must be behind the recent rise in gasoline prices. Apparently the average American’s opinion on financial speculation, oligopoly pricing, and their link to gasoline prices is sufficiently meaningful to include in an article not accusing Big Oil of manipulating oil prices, but just putting the question out there. I hastily blogged about that report here, as did the editors of RealClearEnergy.

Obama pulled the exact same stunt last year. He set up some sort of task force/executive agency/working group/etc. to make sure that there isn’t any illegal price manipulation going on. The agency never found anything, and its unclear if they even really did any investigating:

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Post image for Despite Kyoto, UK Carbon Footprint Bigger than Ever

The European Union (EU) preens itself on being the global leader in the fight against climate change. EU politicians scold the USA for ’failing’ to ratify Kyoto Protocol and enact cap-and-trade. Within the EU, the UK champions the most aggressive climate policies. So the UK’s carbon footprint must be shrinking, right?

Not according to a new report by the UK’s Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (Defra). The UK’s total net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose 35% between 1990 (the Kyoto Protocol baseline year) and 2005. Emissions declined by 9% from 2008 to 2009 due to the worldwide recession. Nonetheless, the country’s carbon footprint was 20% bigger in 2009 than in 1990. How can this be?

Defra used a life cycle analysis (LCA) to estimate the UK economy’s net emissions. The agency examined not only the CO2 emitted by households and firms within the UK but also the emissions induced by the UK’s demand for imported goods. Carbon dioxide is emitted when goods are manufactured for export in, say, China, and then again when those goods are transported to the UK.

Emissions “embedded” in UK imports are increasing much faster than emissions from domestic production are declining. From 1990 to 2009, CO2 emitted by UK households and firms decreased by 14%. During the same period, emissions from imports directly used by UK consumers increased by 79% and emissions from imports used by UK businesses increased by 128%.

The Kyoto Protocol does not “cover” (regulate) import-induced emissions. So under Kyoto’s accounting rules, UK emissions are down. In reality, the UK has outsourced a sizeable chunk of its emissions along with its heavy industry. As one blogger commented, “The UK’s outsourced emissions almost double its carbon footprint.”

Source: Defra, UK’s Carbon Footprint 1990-2009

Post image for EPA’s ‘Carbon Pollution Standard’: Bait-and-Fuel-Switch

Bait-and-switch is one of the oldest tricks of deceptive advertising. The used-car dealer “baits” you onto the lot with an ad promising low interest payments on the car of your dreams. When you get there, the dealer regretfully informs you the car has already been sold. But, no, you haven’t wasted your time, because he’s got this other great car – the “switch” — which has so many superior features and it will only cost you a little more per month.

An even less ethical variant of this tactic is employed in politics. Party A in a negotiation gives an assurance or promise to obtain Party B’s support for a law or regulation. Party A then reneges on the deal once the policy is on the books. EPA’s recently proposed “Carbon Pollution Standard” Rule is a posterchild for this tactic. [click to continue…]

Post image for Obama Fuel Economy Standards Could Price Almost 7 Million Drivers out of New Car Market – NADA

In a report released today, the National Auto Dealers Association (NADA) estimates that the Obama administration’s model year (MY) 2011-2025 fuel economy standards could price nearly 7 million consumers out of the market for new motor vehicles.

Based on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA’s) estimate that federal fuel economy standards will add $2,937 to the average cost of new vehicles during MYs 2011-2025, NADA estimates the standards will “remove 3.1-4.2 million households or 5.8-6.8 million licensed drivers from the new motor vehicle market by 2025.” If, as another recent NADA report concludes, the administration’s estimate is unrealistically low, and the actual additional cost due to regulation is $4,803, the standards will “remove 5.4-5.9 million households or 10.0-11.0 licensed drivers from the new vehicle market by 2025.”

The ‘theory’ underpinning NADA’s disturbing conclusions is straightforward. Lower-income households typically cannot purchase a new vehicle without a loan. To qualify for a loan, borrowers must meet minimal lending standards. The most important consideration is the household’s debt service to income (DTI) ratio. By increasing the cost of new vehicles, fuel economy standards can “increase DTI ratios and cause some consumers to no longer qualify for a loan on the least expensive new vehicle, thus removing them from the new car market.”

Currently, the least expensive new vehicle is the 2011 Chevrolet Aveo, which costs approximately $12,750 in 2010 dollars. An estimated 93% of all households ”have a financial profile that would allow them to meet the 40% maximum debt to income ratio” and qualify for a loan to purchase a new Aveo. But if fuel economy standards add another, say, $4,000 to the cost, the portion of consumers eligible for financing would drop from 92.8% to 88.5% — a decrease of ”5 million households, or 10.6 million of the 245 million licensed drivers expected for MY 2025.” [click to continue…]

Post image for Treasury OIG: Watchdog Pussyfoots Around Solyndra Debacle

Earlier this week, the Treasury Department’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) released an audit report on Treasury’s role in reviewing, in March 2009, the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) $535 million loan guarantee to Solyndra, the solar panel manufacturer that filed for bankruptcy in September 2011. Before going belly up, Solyndra burned through $528 million of the $535 million it received from Treasury’s Federal Financing Bank (FFB). Nearly all of the defaulted loan will be paid off by American taxpayers.

An agency’s OIG is supposed to be a watchdog guarding the public fisc from waste, fraud, and abuse. Watchdogs bark and even bite. This watchdog pussyfoots.

The title of the audit report is “Consultation on Solyndra Loan Guarantee Was Rushed.” Well, it was that. Treasury signed off on the Solyndra loan guarantee only two days after being asked on March 17, 2009 to vet it so that DOE could issue a press release touting the loan on the morning of March 20.

A more accurate title would be ”Consultation on Solyndra Loan Guarantee Was Half-Assed.” Granted, government reports must eschew the use of idiomatic pejoratives. Nonetheless, the OIG did not have to make excuses for Treasury and DOE. The report ascribes to regulatory vagueness derelictions more reasonably attributed to negligence, incompetence, and pliancy in the face of political pressure.     [click to continue…]

Post image for EPA’s Math: Coal Regs = Coal Jobs

The most absurd aspect of the Environmental Protection Agency’s War on Coal is their repeated denials that it’s happening. No matter how many onerous rules they release, each time they claim that the regulation will not only save the environment, but also create jobs in the industry. For example, EPA’s Regulatory Impacts Assessment (RIA) for their mercury regulation known as the Utility MACT—which was (until possibly this week) the most draconian of the coal regulations—argues that the regulation will create almost 10,000 coal jobs.

Specifically, EPA’s Utility MACT regulation requires plants to install “maximum achievable control technology” (MACT)—otherwise known as scrubbers—to remove mercury and other toxins from exhaust. The rule is one of the most expensive in history: EPA estimates it will cost almost $11 billion annually to implement. Already, these compliance costs have led to the shutdown of dozens of coal-fired power plants. Yet, EPA supporters parrot EPA’s claim that this regulation will create thousands of jobs as if it had scientific authority.

EPA’s science is based on a Resources for the Future (RFF) study (Morgenstern, et al) of environmental expenditures in four industries in the 1980s—pulp and paper, plastics, petroleum, and steel—which found “a net gain of 1.55 jobs per $1 million in additional environmental spending” in those industries. EPA then took this formula and just multiplied times the estimated cost of the Utility MACT—$10.9 billion adjusted for inflation—to get their result. They show their work in this footnote on page 9-8 of the RIA:

Highly scientific! In other words, EPA took someone else’s paper, which studied environmental expenditures over three decades old (1971-1991), and applied them to a totally unrelated sector of the economy, the coal industry, and then utilized the old “plug and chug” method. This work wouldn’t survive peer review in a kindergarten class.

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Post image for Ethanol Still Not Lowering the Real Cost of Gasoline

In the wake of high gasoline prices, the ethanol industry is making the rounds in Washington, and they want you to believe that the Renewable Fuel Standard has lowered gasoline prices by up to $.89 per gallon. This would be remarkable, if it were true. The ethanol industry relies on a study produced by the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at the University of Iowa. Here is the abstract:

This report updates the findings in Du and Hayes 2009 by extending the data to December 2010 and concludes that over the sample period from January 2000 to December 2010, the growth in ethanol production reduced wholesale gasoline prices by $0.25 per gallon on average. The Midwest region experienced the biggest impact, with a $0.39/gallon reduction, while the East Coast had the smallest impact at $0.16/gallon. Based on the data of 2010 only, the marginal impacts on gasoline prices are found to be substantially higher given the much higher ethanol production and crude oil prices. The average effect increases to $0.89/gallon and the regional impact ranges from $0.58/gallon in the East Coast to $1.37/gallon in the Midwest. In addition, we report on a related analysis that asks what would happen to US gasoline prices if ethanol production came to an immediate halt. Under a very wide range of parameters, the estimated gasoline price increase would be of historic proportions, ranging from 41% to 92%.

If we go to E85prices.com, we see that as of March 29, 2012 the average nationwide price-spread between E85 and E10 is 14.7%, with E85 costing an average of $3.31/gallon and E10 costing an average of $3.89/gallon. Ethanol has less energy content than gasoline, so a direct price comparison is not appropriate. The generally accepted metric is that E85 must be priced about 28% lower than E10 in order to break even, meaning that the cost per mile driven is equal between E85 and E10. [click to continue…]

Post image for EPA’s “Carbon Pollution” Standard for Power Plants: Four Ways Weird

Yesterday, EPA proposed its first-ever “carbon pollution standard rule” for power plants. The rule would establish a new source performance standard (NSPS) for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel electric generating units (EGUs). The proposed standard is an emission rate of 1,000 lbs CO2 per megawatt hour. About 95% of all natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants already meet the standard (p. 115). No existing coal power plants do. Even today’s most efficient coal plants emit, on average, 1,800 lbs CO2/MWh (p. 134). EPA is effectively banning investment in new coal electric generation.

Like the rest of EPA’s greenhouse agenda, the proposed rule is an affront to the Constitution’s separation of powers. Congress never voted to prohibit the construction of new coal power plants. Indeed, Congress declined to pass less restrictive limits on coal electric generation when Senate leaders pulled the plug on cap-and-trade. Congress should reassert its constitutional authority, overturn the rule, and rein in this rogue agency. [click to continue…]

Post image for Good Guys Win Big Battle in EPA’s War on Appalachian Coal Production

Last week, property-rights advocates were ecstatic with the Supreme Court’s ruling in Sackett v EPA that citizens subject to EPA Clean Water Act “compliance orders” can have their day in court. Before, EPA had interpreted its power in a Kafkaesque fashion, whereby the Agency could levy fines for alleged Clean Water Act violations without any recourse for the accused. (My colleague Hans Bader wrote an excellent blog on the case here).

Because that high profile case captured all the attention, it was little noticed last Friday when property rights advocates won a similarly consequential victory. That afternoon, United States District Court for the District of Columbia Judge Amy Berman Jackson ruled that EPA overstepped its authority when it vetoed a Clean Water Act permit that had already been issued to the Mingo Logan Coal Company, a subsidiary of Arch Coal, for a mountaintop removal mining project in Logan County, West Virginia. The profound matter at hand was whether EPA could revoke a Clean Water Act permit, after it became the possession of the applicant. Had EPA carried the day, permit (i.e., property) owners nationwide would be subject to the cessation of business, depending on EPA’s whims.

Here’s the background: The Clean Water Act prohibits the discharge of pollution into navigable waters of the United States, unless the polluter has a permit. There are two kinds of permits: (1) Section 402 permits for “point-sources,” which are basically any singular discharge outlet for pollutants (like a pipe); and (2) Section 404 permits for “dredge and fill” activities, like mountaintop removal mining*. The former permits are issued by States after their permitting regimes are approved by EPA. The latter permits are issued by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, in accordance with guidance established jointly with EPA. Importantly, the Clean Water Act affords EPA a veto over the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers decision to permit.

The case that was decided last Friday pertained to a Section 404 permit that was issued in late 2009 by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to Mingo Logan Coal Company for the Spruce No 1 Mine in Logan County, West Virginia. EPA retroactively vetoed this permit on January 2011. Mingo Logan Coal Company then sued in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The coal company argued that the Clean Water Act only authorizes EPA to veto a pending Section 404 permit (i.e., while the Army Corps deliberates). EPA countered that the veto power was everlasting. Judge Jackson agreed with the petitioners. She wrote,

“Based upon a consideration of the provision in question, the language and structure of the entire statutory scheme, and the legislative history, the Court concludes that the statute does not give EPA the power to render a permit invalid once it has been issued by the Corps. EPA’s view of its authority is inconsistent with clear provisions in the statute, which deem compliance with a permit to be compliance with the Act, and with the legislative history of section 404.”

Notably, the Court did not rule on EPA’s scientific rationale for the permit veto. If Judge Jackson had ruled that EPA has the authority to retroactively veto a Section 404 permit, next she would have considered whether the veto itself was reasonable. In a 2011 study, I argued at length that the “science” behind EPA’s veto was unacceptably shoddy. In a nutshell, EPA claims that the Spruce No. 1 Mine would significantly harm wildlife up and down the food chain—including fish, salamanders, and birds–while in fact the Agency only presents evidence of harm to a single order of insects (Ephemeroptera, a.k.a. the mayfly). Moreover, the scientific literature suggests that overall insect biodiversity isn’t adversely impacted by surface coal mining in Appalachia. That is, hardier species readily thrive in the wake of the mayfly’s decline.

Judge Jackson’s ruling will no doubt come as a relief to the people of West Virginia. In May 2010, I attended EPA’s public hearing on its proposed veto at the civic center in downtown Charleston. The floor was packed with hundreds of people. Conservatively, I’d estimate that the crowd was 99 percent outraged by EPA’s “jobs for bugs” permit veto. I wrote about that experience here.

This is the second consecutive victory for the Appalachian coal industry over EPA in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Last October, Judge Reggie Walton ruled that EPA had overstepped its authority when it implemented an extra-layer of oversight over Clean Water Act permitting deliberations by States and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for applications from the coal industry in Appalachia.

*Pursuant to the 1977 Surface Mining and Control Act, mountaintop removal mining practitioners must recreate the approximate original contour of the mining area. To put it another way, they have to replace the mountaintop as best they can. However, it is an engineering impossibility to recreate the mountaintop perfectly. There is always leftover dirt and spoil. This “overburden” is deposited at the base of the mountain, becoming a “valley fill.” Invariably, valley fills bury intermittent streams that form in valleys whenever it rains. As such, a valley fill requires a Section 404 dredge and fill permit (because it “fills” intermittent streams).